Future of iTulip?

[porter]

My subscription lapsed and I haven't renewed. Is EJ still posting in the member forums? What's happening to EJ/itulip? Should I renew my paid subscription? HELP!

[Woodsman]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

My subscription lapsed and I haven't renewed. Is EJ still posting in the member forums? What's happening to EJ/itulip? Should I renew my paid subscription? HELP!

For goodness sake yes, renew if you're interested in the least. I'm as hungry for EJ's macro view as every other subscriber, but accept the fact that the institution he's built and the members support is in the process of change. He's posted in the public side, but if you want to hear the man with any meaningful frequency you have to re-up. FWIW, the paygo options are nice if you want to dip a toe in. And if you want to go all in, there's this.

And no, I'm not on commission. But it is self-interest inasmuch as I'm still just a newbie and hanger-on who wants to keep the conversation going here. Me, I believe I profit from it daily both from EJs work and the experiences and views of some other smart and accomplished people around the world.

Things are changing but as best as I understand it, here EJ provides members a framework for dialog within the context of his thesis - the common thread among all us I think - and the repository of his work (most still quite relevant) as well as an occasional and informal update on his macro view. Here he provides qualified members an opportunity to be at the starting gate of an industry facilitating an entirely new way of interacting with the world. I don't think it's too outrageous a claim to put VR somewhere between movable type and the Internet in terms of its potential to change the world and EJ is giving qualified members a chance to stake an early claim.

EJ still posts over the wall but it will probably be some time before he's moved to pen another of his long pieces. And Finster is active as ever with his always precient analysis. Raz is generous with many insightful research reports on the metals. It's too scary for this odd-lot investor, but there's still folks batting ideas around in the Traders area. Even the zoo in the public site News of which I am a proud resident is still as thought provoking as ever and to keep all of that going we need you to come back.

Commission.

[EJ]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

For goodness sake yes, renew if you're interested in the least. I'm as hungry for EJ's macro view as every other subscriber, but accept the fact that the institution he's built and the members support is in the process of change. He's posted in the public side, but if you want to hear the man with any meaningful frequency you have to re-up. FWIW, the paygo options are nice if you want to dip a toe in. And if you want to go all in, there's this.

And no, I'm not on commission. But it is self-interest inasmuch as I'm still just a newbie and hanger-on who wants to keep the conversation going here. Me, I believe I profit from it daily both from EJs work and the experiences and views of some other smart and accomplished people around the world.

Things are changing but as best as I understand it, here EJ provides members a framework for dialog within the context of his thesis - the common thread among all us I think - and the repository of his work (most still quite relevant) as well as an occasional and informal update on his macro view. Here he provides qualified members an opportunity to be at the starting gate of an industry facilitating an entirely new way of interacting with the world. I don't think it's too outrageous a claim to put VR somewhere between movable type and the Internet in terms of its potential to change the world and EJ is giving qualified members a chance to stake an early claim.

EJ still posts over the wall but it will probably be some time before he's moved to pen another of his long pieces. And Finster is active as ever with his always precient analysis. Raz is generous with many insightful research reports on the metals. It's too scary for this odd-lot investor, but there's still folks batting ideas around in the Traders area. Even the zoo in the public site News of which I am a proud resident is still as thought provoking as ever and to keep all of that going we need you to come back.

Commission.

Thank you for the kind words of support. I don't blame anyone for wondering when I intend to post my next long form piece. The reality is that market and economic conditions have changed little over the past year and a half. We live not so much in an economy as in the Economy exhibit at Disney World, with the artificiality of asset prices and all macro effects driven by the reckless application of central bank balance sheet expansiveness across the yield curve. There is no pressure on the Fed to raise rates to head off an incipient rise in inflation. In fact the Fed got into the inflation creation business in 2008 after being in the inflation containment business since 1913 and remains in this odd role to this day. The period of policy transition from inflation creation back to containment is when I expect the fireworks begin but not for some time yet.

I expect I'll be able to get my head around it once this new venture starts to gain momentum.

[astonas]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

I expect I'll be able to get my head around it once this new venture starts to gain momentum.

Sounds exciting! Are you hiring?

[kingrich]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

so the liquidity concerns and happenings of late in the US TREASURY MARKET are nothing to worry about?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

Thanks for the update EJ.
Whenever you get a break from starting new businesses and new investment funds I would love to hear your thoughts on the macro issues in our Disney Economy Exhibit.

Even when things are not changing I find retrospectives valuable to restate principals, validate expectations, and adjust weighting factors and priorities.

Thanks again for all your great work. Congrats on the latest startup, it may indeed be the killer app for VR.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

so the liquidity concerns and happenings of late in the US TREASURY MARKET are nothing to worry about?

In truth, I paused for a moment before placing this up. Why? Because I do believe that this is the most important point made herein. The end game for banking has already set off into motion; caused by the entire economics profession, (career economists, rather than those on the fringe such as EJ), suddenly coming to the realisation that all their wonderful predictions made since 2008 have come to nothing. Trickle down is now dead in the water.

With the very greatest of respects EJ, you would not be the first to have taken their eye off the ball, and then to suddenly realise that, by the time you take another look; the ball has disappeared.

The best pointer? http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi.../2015/821.aspx

Plus this: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/marke...openforum.aspx

And yes, I have already signed up to attend.

AEP: Fed tantrum sets off biggest exodus from emerging markets since 2008 - Read more »

[Mega]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

Ok Chris
So what is next?
DEflation 4 ever?
Mike

[Chris Coles]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

Ok Chris
So what is next?
DEflation 4 ever?
Mike

No Mike, what I see, if that is the correct term to use at this juncture, is that the game has changed; that everyone has reached a consensus; that previous beliefs are no longer valid. The best example being the Bank of England opening a wide debate regarding where economics must turn to improve it's ability to forecast future developments.

My own personal input is to attend the likes of the OECD Forum 2015, (as also the same the year before), to find people saying such as a Professor of economics from a major Paris university: "Every year I come and every year I hear the same, to the point where I have become very cynical; as also my students" (words to that effect).

We have to find a new way forward and that debate has opened and is gaining momentum - without the voice of EJ!

THAT is my point here.

[Southernguy]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

"There is no pressure on the Fed to raise rates to head off an incipient rise in inflation. In fact the Fed got into the inflation creation business in 2008 after being in the inflation containment business since 1913 and remains in this odd role to this day. The period of policy transition from inflation creation back to containment is when I expect the fireworks begin but not for some time yet."
Seems to me the problem is, esentially very simple: no inflation=no problem. Central banks keep interest rates low and buy assets so their prices stay inflated, at will. Inflation=problem. They must try to stop inflation without destroying assets bubbles created since last FC. Bubble bursting shall almost for sure take the rest of world economy with it.
Nobody knows for how long that situation is gonna last.
That is true for USA, Europe, Japan and China. Not true for the rest of the world, meaning Russia, Brazil, India, Mexico or Uruguay. Here the traditional economic conundrum holds true: monetary emission stokes inflation.

[touhy]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

I'm not so sure Southernguy. I'm thinking: no inflation=the problem.

[BK]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

No inflation in USA according to the Feds definition of inflation.

There are lots of real estate markets where homes prices have inflated above or approaching 2006 highs and rents are above previous highs. Looking to buy a stock listed on NASDAQ - inflation.

[shiny!]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

No inflation in USA according to the Feds definition of inflation.

They obviously haven't been to the grocery store. They must send their servants to do the shopping.

[lektrode]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

They obviously haven't been to the grocery store. They must send their servants to do the shopping.

maybe they're eating their iPads...

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Is iTulip and/or EJ Dead?

Thanks for the update EJ.
Whenever you get a break from starting new businesses and new investment funds I would love to hear your thoughts on the macro issues in our Disney Economy Exhibit.

..

I'd like more understanding of how "it" works. What assets are going up, and how do those price rises keep the machine humming? And won't the prices reach a point of ridiculosity where a sell off is inevitable?