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"There is a spirit of dignity in Athens that is worth a great deal more than money"
http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/04/r...ean-government
http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/04/r...ean-government
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
So as these manoeuvres, as I call them, mature, there emerges an interesting possibility. And that is the possibility of a politically stable, anti-austerity government in Europe, led, as I think you probably have observed, by forceful personalities, and presiding over an economy which is so far down that it has no place to go but up. And that may well be, within a short period of time, on a track of some recovery, some improvement in jobs performance and stabilisation of its external debt situation.
This would be in the wake of a crisis that was brought on by the neoliberal financial policies of the early part of the 2000s. Which was then aggravated and prolonged by the austerity ideology that succeeded the crisis, by the profoundly counterproductive policies with which Europe has reacted to the crisis. And so the possibility that an anti-austerity government might lead the beginning of a recovery from the austerity regime is, I think, a present reality and it is, of course, a nightmare in certain quarters.
It is, of course, the worst thing that could happen if you happen to be associated with the larger political system, and the larger economic policy that Europe has been pursuing. And there are a lot of people who are associated with that ideology and with those policies, and you can see their reaction in recent days.
And that is a spirit which is contagious and it may be felt in Spain, and it may be felt in Portugal and it may be felt in Ireland, and elsewhere before long.
Resistance from the full employment/welfare state to the neoliberal model will continue to play out, warts and all. -
Re: Galbraith on Greece
Thanks Thaillandnotes.
Great article by Galbraith, who seems to be right in the thick of things there in Greece.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
I often respect Galbraith's views. So it pains me to say that this article is a laughable attempt at making Greece something it isn't. No, Greece is not the poster child for anti austerity that Galbraith makes it out to be. Greece is being run by the same people that want the government to do everything for them - retire at 55, have more holidays, increase minimum wage (well above what the economy can actually support,) hire more voters, err, I meant civil servants, raise voter, ahem, civil servant pay, etc... Basically, a Modern Monetary System shangri-la. Very little is said about the private sector, because who really cares about private enterprise. Everyone that owns a business is a blood sucking millionaire, right?
He says that the two party system, full of corruption, is gone. Well, the former left side of that two party system, which historically represented about 30-40 percent of the people, PASOK, garnered only about 5% of the votes recently. Where did those former PASOK voters go? They went to the "new" left party - SYRIZA. Same old thing with the same old expectations, and I fear, the same results. But yes there are some new faces in SYRIZA: academic types with zero practical experience and anti EU pro Russian marxist types as well. Many of these types actually believe Stalin was a wonderful guy. I'm not kidding! I wonder if Galbraith would like to see such people running the US?
Tsipras has hobbled together an extremely unstable alliance of mini-parties, so to speak. He took a chunk from PASOK, he lured many marxists, and many academic MMTers. They all followed this "brilliant" pied piper because he promised them incredible things. Things that are so incredible that they are better described, in my view, as impossible. Mark my words. Whatever Tsipras eventually agrees to with the EU, his own party of radical leftists, moderate leftists, and coalition with hard right nationalists will make sure that nothing gets done.
When Tsipras had initially agreed to the Eurogroup on many reforms, back in February, he held a weekend closed door meeting with his ministers and MPs. You know how long that meeting lasted? 11 HOURS. Suffice it to say, not much was agreed to. And now we find ourselves, two months later, with no agreement.
Since then, every minister has publicly stated his own opinions, often against what Tsipras has stated. One has threatened, again, a tide of unleashed radical islamists through out the EU should Greece be "kicked" out. Another said that no more privatizations will take place, another stated that Greece will pay its pensioners and civil servants first, and then, if anything is left, its debts - but there are no guarantees... (Payment was recently made to the IMF by the government raiding just about every quasi governmental account that exists) Not much more blood left in this stone...
SYRIZA is not speaking with one voice. What does that tell you?
Tsipras' government will fall. Or Greece will fall out of the EU. Or both but not in that order.
Tsipras cannot get his entire party to accept the things even Tsipras himself has compromised on.
The only other solution involves Tsipras cooperating with the opposition. New Democracy (the center right opposition) has offered to support Tsipras with votes in Parliament if things get out of hand within Syriza and Greece finds itself at the edge of leaving the EU - which would be disastrous for Greece. Greece has lost a lot of credibility lately. I don't think there will be much of an international market for drachmas should Greece go that route.
And it's no coincidence that all those that romanticize Greece as some sort of Austerity Challenger/Victim are not in a position to buy a future Drachma-based government bond. Those that manage and invest in government bonds probably have a more realistic view as to what is happening in Greece. Investing in something makes the mind think much more clearly.
One more thing. Greece is a hotbed of protests - you name it, someone is protesting it. I'm all for freedom of speech, but there should be boundaries. In the past, Tsipras always criticized the government for sending the police out to quell outbursts that involved protesters taking over government buildings and Universities. Now that Tsipras is in office there has been a series of public building takeovers by the "anti authoritarians/anarchists." Parliament, Syriza offices, and Universities have been targets of these anarchists. One SYRIZA Minister criticized government inaction, saying that the left should care about the rule of law, even when it comes to protests. He was criticized by his own party! This will get interesting because when anarchists smell weakness, they go in for the kill. They are now burning cars in Athens neighborhoods.
Funny thing is, during one sit in at a government office, the civil servants started their own protest outside their offices saying they couldn't get their work done!!!! Imagine if you had to go to that government office for some paperwork! Is this the "new Greece" Galbraith is celebrating?
Galbraith, I think, missed the mark. Badly.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Thanks, GNK. I was hoping you would weigh in. I have lived in Thailand for 20 years and have some pretty political Thai friends. The international media always mangles the situation in Thailand. I used to live across the street from CNN's SE Asian bureau chief. He was married to a Thai, spoke Thai, and went out on the streets, but I was amazed how often he got stuff backwards.
That said, I wrote Galbraith an email and here is his reply...
Would you mind posting this reply for me?
Regards,
James Galbraith
****
My article is about the political situation facing Greece. It says very
little about Greece, except for this:
"...a small and historically very badly governed country with weak
institutions that has suffered abominably in the wake of the crisis over
the last five years, losing 25% or so of its output. And having
unemployment rates that are comparable to those in the United States during
the worst period of the Great Depression, unemployment rates that exceed
well over 50% for the youthful population, and facing severe stresses in
every aspect of (its) public and social (activitie)s."
How this amounts to a Shangri-La is a bit of a mystery to me. That said,
statistics contradict the stereotypes that start off this comment; Greeks
who have jobs work longer hours, take fewer days off and of course earn
less than other Europeans.
The fact that PASOK voters came over to SYRIZA is both obvious (otherwise,
SYRIZA would not have won the election), and unimportant. The past
leadership of both former major parties is out of power. I'm not aware of
any "academic MMTers" in the new government; if there are any I'd be happy
to be introduced.
It is true that left-wing governments are fractious and talkative, but so
what? So long as they vote together, the government holds. And it's true
that violence is always a threat to the democratic left, which is always,
and rightly, reluctant to escalate violence.
James Galbraith"Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
I see this in every society. The status quo people and the people that want change. The people that want radical change are usually kids, young adults that have nothing much to lose if the system collapses. The people that want status quo are usually the elderly, the asset rich and business owners and civil servants and not to mention, the small group of cronies (bankers, media owners, etc). So depending on which group you belong to, you maybe against or for change.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
I will respond to the previous post by Galbraith when I have more time. Once again, I want to mention that I have a lot of respect for Galbraith, especially regarding his views on the 2008 AFC.
As for the status quo in Greece, touchring, the irony is that those that want radical change in Greece will suffer the most should they get it (Grexit/Grexident)
How? Many of the Kleptocrats in Greece have money abroad - this is not just the ruling elite, but many high end tax dodgers. Should Greece fall out of the Euro, the subsequent capital controls and sinking of the new Drachma's value would make the kleptocrats with assets abroad the next ruling elite. In the chaos that ensues, they will buy up everything dirt cheap. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
The radicals in Greece are ensuring a kleptocracy either way. They don't realize that the EU is the lesser of two evils (for them). Instead, they want to believe that Santa Claus exists. There is always a high price to pay for such foolishness.
The kleptocrats prefer the status quo, even if a Grexident means a possible higher reward for them. Why? Money aside, society will become highly unstable here in Greece should a Grexit occur. Not the type of country most want, even if it means more economic power.
Furthermore, most of the radicals in Greece are what I call iphone radicals. Much like the upper middle class "revolutionaries" of the 1960s. They're playing with others' lives and they don't care. The fools that follow them lack either the intellectual capacity, or the economic knowledge of what could happen to them should Greece leave the Euro.
Either way, about 60% of Greeks prefer the Euro. It's the typical universal voter syndrome that wants more government services and less taxes. Cognitive Dissonance.
Things can always get worse...Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Greece is all about an old Law:
6 “No man shall take the lower or the upper millstone in pledge, for he takes one’s living in pledge.
Deuteronomy 24
The privatization of national assets to pay off debt will end Greek sovereignty. The idea that such things may become pledged for debt seems to be well addressed. Seed corn is not fit to secure credit.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
You are quite right. Ordinary Greeks are caught between their own kleptocracy and the EU. The Greek kleptocrats took the money and rolled over the liability to Greece.Originally posted by gnk View PostComment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Thailandnotes, thanks for your post and your sharing my post with Galbraith - I often find his articles very interesting. I agree that living abroad, and reading articles written by non residents with a foreign audience in mind can be frustrating at times. One often sees things in a completely different way from what is being reported abroad.
And I'm not going to say that my view is the only rational view out there. Of course many here in Greece disagree with me. We all carry our life experiences with us wherever we go, and that colors our views.
That said, I want to follow up on a few points:
MMT -
I always thought Varoufakis was an MMTer I guess I'm wrong, but then again, I have read a lot of conflicting info on MMT. My understanding with MMT is that it is a great tool for describing the system we live in, but to be used prescriptively, I think could be risky. I know I may be angering some MMT'ers by saying this, but in a fiat money world, MMT must look great to Modern Marxists.
SYRIZA -
I think many people that are left or left leaning ought to take caution when viewing a left wing government elsewhere. Left wing is not the same wherever it exists, neither is right wing for that matter. The political spectrum changes country to country. Labels themselves are restrictive, I know, but unfortunately we all use them as unavoidable shortcuts.
The current left in Greece has its own unique features that set it apart from the left found elsewhere. They feel a strong connection to Russia, for example. Another example: in Greece, describing yourself as marxist is not a political career killer. I have dual citizenship, and when I voted, I recall seeing three distinct Marxist parties on the ballots. One was KNE - the Marxist youth party, the other was KKE - the traditional marxist party, and the other was listed as KKE - Marxist-Leninist. I guess these communists are more hardcore than the previous two. Yes, Greece's political landscape has quite a few flavors of Marxism!
SYRIZA, as I said before was hobbled together by a politically enterprising young politician named ALEXIS TSIPRAS. Maoists, Trotskyites, anti-capitalists, greens, and even moderate social democrats are some of the groups represented in SYRIZA. Some are very pro-EU, others, not so much. To me, that doesn't sound like a cohesive government. To me, it sounds like a bunch of outsiders getting together with the primary goal of winning an election. Governing, on the other hand, was an afterthought to them.
For such a coalition Party to exist, it requires that each subgroup be promised a ministerial position (Similar to US cabinet seats.) As a result, this government is made up of factions that existed separately, pre SYIRZA, but now they actually have to work together. As the largest Party in Parliament, they bear the brunt of accepting a final memorandum or "program" because SYRIZA will not accept a memorandum from the EU as the previous governments have done, so now they use the word "program" instead.
I really don't think SYRIZA, as it exists today, will last. I just hope that only SYRIZA falls, and not the country. To be completely honest, I don't think Greece is actually functioning 100% with a government right now. The only times this government agrees on passing a law is when it involves spending money, either the government's or someone else's. Get them together to agree on a new program and that's when the fireworks start.
Violence/Protests:
These will only get worse because these violent protesters are mere punks getting a thrill burning cars, to put it bluntly. I have nothing against peaceful protests, so long as they don't impinge on the rights of others. The future will tell. But yes, its getting worse and worse. Luckily, I don't live in Athens.
I have read Varoufakis, and I agree with many of his points when it comes to describing the faults of the international monetary system. Varoufakis should be careful. He has entered the world of politics. It's an ugly world, and I fear that he could become a scapegoat when things go south. I don't think he has a connection to these political parties that comprise SYRIZA and I think they will throw him under the bus in a heartbeat if they feel they have to.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
I think it depends on what kind of disease you are trying to cure. It is a dangerous tonic when drinking from the bottle as some kind of finance for social spending. As a topical antiseptic against government bailout and rescue packages for creditors its an excellent cure. For example applying it to the 2008 open wound, it may have allowed creditors to go bankrupt along with the debtors. It would also provide assurances that there is no such thing as too big to fail banks such that da guberment can simply stop collecting certain kinds of taxes like social security withholding which would increase buying power in places of economic demand. Such could be the prescription. That is to say there is always a source of liquidity when it becomes necessary. Saving bad banks isn't necessary at all.Originally posted by gnk View Post
Though I grant you, if the masses got a taste of MMT, it may not turn out so well.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Finland could help determine whether Greece gets more help:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...o-project.htmlComment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Even though the press focuses mostly on Germany, as does the current Greek government, the Greek crisis has had the effect of making every EU country (but Greece) more cohesive and less patient with Greece. No country wants to cut Greece a break, and understandably so. These are all democracies and giving Greece a break is essentially asking non Greek voters to send (more) money to Greece. Some of these countries have a lower standard of living than Greece. Other countries have gone through their own Austerity programs without special treatments, and are leary of Greece getting anything extra as that would empower their own far left parties to challenge the political status quo and ask for the same. Other countries are better off or have higher retirement ages, or are just plain more competitive. What's in it for them? As of now, over 50% of Germans want Greece out, that was not the case just before Syriza came to power. This is a huge political test for Merkel.Originally posted by vt View Post
Greece initially had a bailout in 2010. Then with new elections, had another bailout with the PSI "haircut" in 2012. Now with the recent January elections, Greece wants another deal... Has any other "austerity" country done this? None that I recall.
It has now gotten political. I'm afraid that if push comes to shove, and the EU faces a greater risk in doing whatever it takes to keep Greece, than in letting Greece go... then the decision is an obvious one. Greece needs to become more of a Western European country (many Greeks understand what I mean when I say that) and not the other way around, that is, the EU becomes more like Greece. That is not going to happen. It shouldn't happen.
I know many people of all political persuasions here in Greece. You know what the average (delusional) Syriza supporter thinks? We are making the big powers shake! They're scared! We have gained our dignity! It's typical small country psychology. Blame is shifted to foreign powers, and domestic inadequacies - corruption, dysfunctional government, etc... are overlooked.
I, on the other hand, feel embarrassed by the current government's behavior, and many Greeks (not all) can not understand why. What I am seeing is the opposite of dignity. How can a corrupt, broke country disregard reforms (self improvement), beg for money, and alienate not only the creditors, but the citizens of other EU countries whose trust is integral in getting that money? Where's the dignity in that? Where's the logic in that?
What the last election has accomplished is this: whatever economic gains Greece enjoyed have been wiped out. The Government now wants access to all quasi government accounts, pensions, and even national hospital funds. The Banking system has been experiencing a slow run. Private investments are being cancelled due to political uncertainty.
But hey, dignity has been gained.
The Greeks want "dignity" first, before money or jobs -Yanis Varoufakis
By the way, it's not just about economics. Here's SYRIZA's attempt at making Greece "competitive" via the educational system:
"Under the new regulations, students will be able to vote for their university’s rector, police will once more be banned from entering university grounds for any reason, the evaluation system for professors will be scrapped, students will be allowed to remain enrolled for as long they like without ever having to graduate, university councils will be abolished and high school students will be able to graduate with a minimum grade of 9.5/20 rather than 10/20. And these are just a few of the changes that are being promoted, which may be in tune with the overall spirit of the government but are definitely not in synch with the times." LINK
There are many, many more examples that show, in my opinion, that Syriza and Alexis Tsipras are a disaster in the making.Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Dignity based on: empty promises and aggressive, insulting tactics against allies, as well as possibly giving known terrorists leniency, among many other things, has finally proven to be a failed tactic:Originally posted by Thailandnotes View Post
The Greek Government's approval ratings are plummeting as negotiations go sour
If there's one positive that may come from this tragic episode in Greek history, it is the end of the extreme left in Greece as a serious political force.
(edit - updated first link)Comment
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Re: Galbraith on Greece
Originally posted by gnk View Post
Thanks gnk. It is great to have your firsthand posts from within Greece.
I have seen situations where a course has been set and a disastrous end is inevitable.
Just before the inevitable disaster the people who set the course relinquish control.
Some poor fool steps in and finds himself in charge when things blow up.
He gets the blame.
gnk, do you think this applies at all to the leftists in Greece?
Was there anything they could have done differently to avoid economic disaster?Comment
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