Galbraith on Greece

[vt]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Greece and Germany compared with graphs:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...harts/?hpid=z1

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

the problem is that the troika's demands, or so-called solutions, are not appropriate. why raise the tax rate when the problem is people not paying taxes at all? raising the taxes without structural reform just puts more of a burden on those who can't, or won't, cheat.

raising the vat while increasing unemployment makes tourism more expensive and more dangerous. how is this supposed to help?

Didn't Russia have both a HUGE tax collection and compliance issue post Soviet?

Didn't they go with a flat tax?

I think I recall reading compliance/collection exploded once implemented and cost to the state dropped.

Although it could have been flat tax adherent jedi mind tricks.

I wonder if binning the Greek tax system and replacing it with a flat tax would have any merit considering how much of a mess it is in terms of non-compliance.

[GRG55]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Greece and Germany compared with graphs:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...harts/?hpid=z1

Comparing Germany and Greece? Seriously??

That's like comparing beer & bratwurst with ouzo & olives. Both are satisfying combinations, but not in the same circumstances.

This comparison is about as useful as comparing, say, Great Britain with its former colony Zimbabwe. Or France with Louisiana, Spain with Trinidad, Belgium with the DRC, or the Netherlands with Indonesia. The only difference is all of the latter are former colonies.

[gnk]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

I voted around 12:30 today. In January, for the election, I waited in line. Today, only a couple people in front of me. Very low turnout where I was. Hearing the same elsewhere. Beautiful Sunday weather. Beach day.

[don]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister has just spoken to the media.

He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

It seems the early forecasts showing the No vote in the lead were right: according to the Ministry of the Interior, with 9.5% of the vote counted, the "No's" have a resounding lead with some 59.9% of the vote.

[gnk]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

Looks like a solid "No"

I voted "yes" but was hoping for a close call, a near 50-50% split. That way, each side is humbled just enough at the negotiating table and reason prevails. Now I fear that a return to the drachma may be a real eventuality. This government, as is, can not pass even a moderate agreement. Unless Tsipras reshuffles his government, or creates a unity government, Greece is going drachma.

[Southernguy]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

The historic precedent is just too strong. For something they cellebrate the "OXI" day.
It's not an economic vote; it's a dignity one.

[don]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

It's not an economic vote; it's a dignity one.

+1

Greece has delivered a dramatic, unexpected and sensational rejection of the terms demanded by its creditors in return for aid, putting itself closer to leaving the euro.

With more than three quarters of votes counted, around 62% of Greeks have voted No, or Oxi – stunning the eurozone, and opening up another chapter in this long crisis.

[GRG55]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

Looks like a solid "No"

I voted "yes" but was hoping for a close call, a near 50-50% split. That way, each side is humbled just enough at the negotiating table and reason prevails. Now I fear that a return to the drachma may be a real eventuality. This government, as is, can not pass even a moderate agreement. Unless Tsipras reshuffles his government, or creates a unity government, Greece is going drachma.

The sun will come up in the east tomorrow, neither Europe nor Greece are going anywhere, and this long running "crisis" will move into some new phase worthy of yet more European leader's summits. The vote seemed more about "If the creditors don't give us enough voluntary default room should we force them to give it to us involuntarily?"

As for a new drachma, nothing has happened so far to alter the view from 2009 noted here:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...595#post140595

[gnk]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

The sun will come up in the east tomorrow, neither Europe nor Greece are going anywhere, and this long running "crisis" will move into some new phase worthy of yet more European leader's summits. The vote seemed more about "If the creditors don't give us enough voluntary default room should we force them to give it to us involuntarily?"

As for a new drachma, nothing has happened so far to alter the view from 2009 noted here:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...595#post140595

Watch for California style IOUs

[gnk]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

+1

Greece has delivered a dramatic, unexpected and sensational rejection of the terms demanded by its creditors in return for aid, putting itself closer to leaving the euro.

With more than three quarters of votes counted, around 62% of Greeks have voted No, or Oxi – stunning the eurozone, and opening up another chapter in this long crisis.

All a scam to fool the little people, and they bought it hook, line, and sinker.

I said it before, Tsipras cobbled together a party of extremist and moderate outsiders. They won the election, but couldn't govern. They probably couldn't even agree on takeout during their nightly meetings!

When Tsipras was close to a deal, and discussed it with his party leaders, he saw divisions. If he put that deal through Parliament, his coalition and Party would fold, and the government would fall, ushering in new elections. So....

Hence the scam of a badly worded, confusing referendum, which was basically a national vote of confidence. Now that he got a decent vote, he will likely reshuffle his cabinet, and/or work with the opposition, and get some sort of deal. Don't expect a miracle deal though, remember, we're on planet Earth.

Or...

His incompetence was never incompetence and he makes it look like hard as he tried, drachma will be our last choice - something he and his backers planned all along, but could never publicly state. Or, he really tries to make that anti-imperialist Venezuela type state but... same result... drachma returns, economy crashes, and Greeks and others with money abroad buy up everything for basically nothing.

Despite intentions, money always wins.

I can never forgive him for the timing of the referendum. The referendum was post program, so no more ELA, and thus no liquidity. Capital controls of 60 euros a day are outright killing this economy. Why did he have the referendum so late? Incompetence or Drachma plan?

And now there is talk of a bank haircut. Deposits over 8K - 30% haircut. The real/smart wealth bolted in January, now we're talking about middle class people with life savings possibly getting hit. Possible parallel currency or IOUs as well- government employees will love that! Lots and lots of rumours while the clueless celebrate in the streets. Ignorance is bliss, I guess, but not for long.

I never trusted him. I don't think anyone here on this forum saw him speak on the campaign trail. I did watch him on TV - it was hilarious what he was promising. You would have to be really, really bad at math to believe him.

Hollywood couldn't make up what is going on in Greece right now. It's terrifying, but I admit, exciting too.

Shit's really moving fast here.

[gnk]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

One more thing - Samaras of New Democracy resigned (about time). Possible replacement Dora Bakoyiannis - a Greek Maggie Thatcher?

Just conjecture

[shiny!]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

Thank you for the updates, gnk. My heart goes out to you and all the good people in Greece.

"Whenever a state or an individual cited 'insufficient funds' as an excuse for neglecting this important thing or that, it was indicative of the extent to which reality had been distorted by the abstract lens of wealth. During periods of so-called economic depression, for example, societies suffered for want of all manner of essential goods, yet investigation almost invariably disclosed that there were plenty of goods available. Plenty of coal in the ground, corn in the fields, wool on the sheep. What was missing was not materials but an abstract unit of measurement called 'money.' It was akin to a starving woman with a sweet tooth lamenting that she couldn't bake a cake because she didn't have any ounces. She had butter, flour, eggs, milk, and sugar, she just didn't have any ounces, any pinches, any pints. The loony legacy of money was that the arithmetic by which things were measured had become more valuable than the things themselves."
- Tom Robbins, Skinny Legs and All

May the Realm of Justice come.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

Watch for California style IOUs

I thought the Rhode Island move around that time was funnier than the California IOU thing. Call it a "furlough." But force the employees to come to work anyways. Then just don't pay them. Problem solved.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Galbraith on Greece

And now there is talk of a bank haircut. Deposits over 8K - 30% haircut. The real/smart wealth bolted in January, now we're talking about middle class people with life savings possibly getting hit.

This is something I can't understand. It was obvious many months ago that something bad could happen with Greek bank accounts, similar to what happened in Cyprus. Was having one's money in the Greek banking system so much more advantageous than having one's money in a foreign bank? Was it particularly difficult to move all of one's funds into a foreign bank or into gold or stocks? From my view here in the U.S., the dumb money was really, really dumb.

If something like what's happening in Greece were to happen here in the U.S., I would be quite pleased to get as much warning as the Greek people did.