Galbraith on Greece

[touchring]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Pretty much. But Greeks are really, really independent minded and want to see the ship 3/4 sunk before they change their mind.

The assumption is that Germany itself is an unsinkable ship, but I think Germany is moving towards a long term industrial decline for the following reasons:

1. Slowed Asian demand for luxury cars and products.
2. Greater competition worldwide for industrial and infrastructure goods.
3. Competition from American companies for smart/self-driving cars, smart home alarm and appliances.

In 10 years, Germany would be another Japan.

[Woodsman]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

No one is red baiting, but cheer leading for the left doesn't work either...

Bullshit.

redbait

(redirected from redbaiting)
Also found in: Encyclopedia, Wikipedia.
red·bait

(rĕd′bāt′)tr.v. red·bait·ed, red·bait·ing, red·baits

To accuse, denounce, or attack (a person, for example) as a Communist or a Communist sympathizer.

red′bait′er n.
red′bait′ing n.

American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition. Copyright © 2011 by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. Published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
-----
red•bait
(ˈrɛdˌbeɪt)

v.i.to accuse a person or group of being communistic or communist.

red′bait`er, n.

Random House Kernerman Webster's College Dictionary, © 2010 K Dictionaries Ltd. Copyright 2005, 1997, 1991 by Random House, Inc. All rights reserved.

You use that those endearing appellations more than any single person on this site. And now Our Man in Greece seems just as comfortable slinging around the slander. Because that's what it is and might even rise to libel given the right circumstances.

I'm sure even the hint of such a thing gives EJ oh-so much motivation to keep this place going, you think VT?

It's certainly intended to scandalize and discredit the target and their ideas, destroying their reputation rendering them a non-person or worse. It's also a warning to others to avoid dissent along similar grounds.

What little effort it would take to enumerate those many times you've flung such mud is more than I care to exert on a peaceful Friday morning. And now you've gained a partner whose own red baiting was as evident as your denials are transparent. But surely just as odd and anachronistic.

Who in our history engaged in this discredited practice?




Who employs it today with similar enthusiasm?

You guys aren't fooling anyone.

[GRG55]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

The assumption is that Germany itself is an unsinkable ship, but I think Germany is moving towards a long term industrial decline for the following reasons:

1. Slowed Asian demand for luxury cars and products.
2. Greater competition worldwide for industrial and infrastructure goods.
3. Competition from American companies for smart/self-driving cars, smart home alarm and appliances.

In 10 years, Germany would be another Japan.

Germany may be headed for a short term decline if it actually gets to the point where it refuses to recycle its current account surpluses to fund the current account deficit nations of Europe that form an important part of its export markets. As jk has pointed out, that recycling could well be in the form of promoting German consumption of the goods and services produced elsewhere in Europe, instead of charity loans. However, other than sunshine holidays to escape the Hamburg winters I wouldn't be too optimistic.

[don]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Pretty much. But Greeks are really, really independent minded and want to see the ship 3/4 sunk before they change their mind.

That’s especially true where I’ve been staying here in the port-city of Piraeus, which – being the country’s biggest port, is home to mostly blue collar, working class folks where unions more or less dominate.

To illustrate the political leanings around here, I hazily recall a headline in a newsfeed summing up their worldview quite accurately: “Piraeus – a neighborhood where Syriza is not quite left-wing enough.”

Class matters?

Who knew . . . .

[gnk]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

I'm red-baiting?

I live in a country where Communists are actually in power, many have seats in Parliament (KKE), where I see communist marches (now frequently) and hammer and sickle graffiti is ubiquitous.

Once, again, Woodsmen, you can't make that intellectual leap. When you're talking to me, remember, we are not discussing US politics, with American centric analysis, we're discussing Balkan politics, with its own unique history and current circumstances.

How often have you discussed things with people that live abroad, living in very different cultures and political systems? Because all your links above have very little to do with what is going on in Greece right now.

And yes, I have friends and relatives that are communists. Real communists. Do you?

Accusing someone of being a communist in Greece is a moot, pointless exercise. There is nothing to hide, they admit it, and I am happy that I live in a country where they can express their views.

But I will argue with them about economics and politics. I will disagree with them, but we don't persecute each other for those views.

It's 2015, for gods sake, not 1947.

[don]

Will We All Be Greeks?


Dorothea Lange Miserable poverty. Elm Grove, Oklahoma County, OK 1936

So now they do it. Now the IMF comes out with a report that says Greece needs hefty debt restructuring.

Mind you, their numbers are still way off the mark, in the end it’s going to be easily double what they claim. Not even a Yanis Varoufakis haircut will do the trick.

But at least they now have preliminary numbers out. The reason why they have is inevitably linked to the press leak I wrote about earlier this week in Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief. If that hadn’t come out, I’m betting they would still not have said a thing.

It’s even been clear for many years to the IMF that debt restructuring for Greece is badly needed, but Lagarde and her troops have come to the Athens talks with an agenda, and stonewalled their own researchers.

Which makes you wonder, why would any economist still want to work at the Fund? What is it about your work being completely ignored by your superiors that tickles your fancy? How about your conscience?

Why go through 5 months of ‘negotiations’ with Greece in which you refuse any and all restructuring, only to come up with a paper that says they desperately need restructuring, mere days after they explicitly say they won’t sign any deal that doesn’t include debt restructuring?

By now I have to start channeling my anger about the whole thing. This is getting beyond stupid. And I did too have an ouzo at the foot of the Acropolis, but I’m not sure whether that channels my anger up or down. The whole shebang is just getting too crazy.

For five whole months the troika refuses to talk debt relief, and mere days after the talks break off they come with this? What then was their intention going into the talks? Certainly not to negotiate, that much is clear, or the IMF would have spoken up a long time ago.

At the very least, all Troika negotiators had access to this IMF document prior to submitting the last proposal, which did not include any debt restructuring, and which caused Syriza to say it was unacceptable for that very reason.

Tsipras said yesterday he hadn’t seen it, but the other side of the table had, up to and including all German MPs. This game obviously carries a nasty odor.

Meanwhile, things are getting out of hand here. It’s not just the grandmas who can’t get to their pensions anymore, rumor has it that within days all cash will be gone from banks. And then what? Oh, that’s right, then there’s a referendum. Which will now effectively be held in a warzone.

It’s insane to see even Greeks claim that this is Alexis Tsipras’ fault, but given the unrelenting anti-Syriza ‘reporting’ in western media as well as the utterly corrupted Greek press, we shouldn’t be surprised.

The real picture is completely different. Tsipras and Varoufakis are the vanguard of a last bastion of freedom fighters who refuse to surrender their country to an occupation force called the Troika. Which seeks to conquer Greece outright through financial oppression and media propaganda.

Tsipras and Varoufakis should have everyone’s loud and clear support for what they do. And not just in Greece. But where is the support in Europe? Or the US, for that matter?

There’s no there there. Europeans are completely clueless about what’s happening here in Athens. They can’t see to save their lives that their silence protects and legitimizes a flat out war against a country that is, just like their respective countries, a member of a union that now seeks to obliterate it.

Europeans need to understand that the EU has no qualms about declaring war on one of its own member states. And that it could be theirs next time around. Where people die of hunger or preventable diseases. Or commit suicide. Or flee.

All Europeans on their TV screens can see the line-ups at ATMs, and the fainting grandmas at the banks, the hunger, the despair. How on earth can they see this as somehow normal, and somehow not connected to their own lives?

They’re part of the same political and monetary union. What happens to Greece happens to all of you. That’s the inevitable result of being in a union together.

Don’t Europeans ever think that enough should be enough when it comes to seeing people being forced into submission, in their name? Or are they too fat and thick to understand that it’s in their name that this happens?

The July 5 referendum here in Greece is not about whether the country will remain in the EU, or the eurozone, no matter what any talking head or politician tries to make of it. The narrow question is about whether Greeks want their government to accept a June 26 Troika proposal that Tsipras felt he could not sign because it fell outside his mandate.

That the Troika after the referendum was announced then pulled a Lucy and Charlie Brown move on Syriza, and retracted the proposal, is of less interest. Lucy always pulls away the football, and Charlie Brown always kicks air. He should wisen up at some point and refuse to play ball.

However, at the same time, though it’s highly unfair to burden the Greeks’ shoulders with this, the referendum has a far broader significance. It is about what and who will rule Europe going forward, and we’re talking decades here.

It will either be a union of functioning democracies, or it will be a totalitarian regime in which all 28 nations surrender their independence, their sovereignty, their votes and then their lives to Brussels and Berlin.

Democracies are about one thing first and foremost: the people decide. If you can’t have that, than why would you have elections and referendums? Those then become mere theater pieces. Like we already have in the US, where if anyone can explain to me the difference between the Clintons and the Kardashians, by all means give it a go.

Since it’s clear that Berlin is by far the strongest voice in the three-headed monster the Troika has become, it’s no exaggeration to say that what we see unfold before our eyes is yet another German occupation of Greece. There are no tanks and boxcars involved yet, but wars can be fought in many ways. And scorched earth can take up many different forms too. It’s the result that counts.

In the meantime it has somehow become entirely acceptable for politicians and media from foreign countries to tell the Greeks what to do, who to vote for, and what to make sure happens after.

European Parliament chief Martin Schulz even dares claim that Syriza should resign if the vote is yes, and it should be replaced with a bunch of technocrats. It’s none of your business, Martin. Or yours, Bloomberg writers, or Schäuble, or anyone else who’s not Greek. Shut up! You’re all way out of -democratic- line.

It’s up to Greeks to decide what happens in their country. It’s both a sovereign state and a democracy. The utmost respect for this should be the very foundation of everything we do as free people, whose ancestors fought so hard to make us free.

How come we moved so far away from that, so fast? What happened to us? What have we become?

The Automatic Earth

[gnk]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

European Parliament chief Martin Schulz even dares claim that Syriza should resign if the vote is yes, and it should be replaced with a bunch of technocrats. It’s none of your business, Martin. Or yours, Bloomberg writers, or Schäuble, or anyone else who’s not Greek. Shut up! You’re all way out of -democratic- line.

So where does one draw the line? Who exactly should "shut up" What about the writer of that article?

Basically Bloomberg writers should shut up, but the author of the article somehow has "permission" to give an opinion?

Here's my beef with SYRIZA:

They had the audacity to think that a small country like Greece could change Europe using its Memorandum renewal as an exercise. They gambled big. It's not over but the costs of every round at that table keep rising. SYRIZA keeps doubling down, and now we find ourselves with capital controls and a frozen economy. The link between Retailers and Suppliers is quickly breaking down due to difficulties in payments caused by capital controls. I see it every day in the stores I go to. Tourism is collapsing, and we will feel it this winter, when many local economies survive on money earned from summer tourism.

SYRIZA should have quickly done their best on a Memorandum, and then, sit down with all the other countries and discuss how to recycle money through out Europe - Federalization, in effect. Or discuss a debt writedown, or a Marshall Plan of sorts, or all of the above etc...

It would have been much easier than sacrificing a country's economy. They were playing with fire, and we are all getting burned.

It didn't have to be that way.

The EU officials are far from blameless, but in my opinion, Tsipras has the ultimate blame. He was the gambler here thinking he could single handedly and gloriously beat the house but now everyone else is going to pay for it.

And I still fear that he may ultimately want a breakdown to go drachma.

[don]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

John Perkins, author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, discusses how Greece and other eurozone countries have become the new victims of "economic hit men."

And before turning specifically to the case of Greece, let's talk a little bit more about the manner in which these economic hit men and these organizations like the IMF operate. You mentioned, of course, how they go in and they work to get these countries into massive debt, that money goes in and then goes straight back out. You also mentioned in your book these overly optimistic growth forecasts that are sold to the politicians of these countries but which really have no resemblance to reality.

Exactly, we'd show that if these investments were made in things like electric energy systems that the economy would grow at phenomenally high rates. The fact of the matter is, when you invest in these big infrastructure projects, you do see economic growth, however, most of that growth reflects the wealthy getting wealthier and wealthier; it doesn't reflect the majority of the people, and we're seeing that in the United States today.

"In the case of Greece, my reaction was that 'Greece is being hit.' There's no question about it."


For example, where we can show economic growth, growth in the GDP, but at the same time unemployment may be going up or staying level, and foreclosures on houses may be going up or staying stable. These numbers tend to reflect the very wealthy, since they have a huge percentage of the economy, statistically speaking. Nevertheless, we would show that when you invest in these infrastructure projects, your economy does grow, and yet, we would even show it growing much faster than it ever conceivably would, and that was only used to justify these horrendous, incredibly debilitating loans.

Is there a common theme with respect to the countries typically targeted? Are they, for instance, rich in resources or do they typically possess some other strategic importance to the powers that be?

Yes, all of those. Resources can take many different forms: One is the material resources like minerals or oil; another resource is strategic location; another resource is a big marketplace or cheap labor. So, different countries make different requirements. I think what we're seeing in Europe today isn't any different, and that includes Greece.

What happens once these countries that are targeted are indebted? How do these major powers, these economic hit men, these international organizations come back and get their "pound of flesh," if you will, from the countries that are heavily in debt?

By insisting that the countries adopt policies that will sell their publicly owned utility companies, water and sewage systems, maybe schools, transportation systems, even jails, to the big corporations. Privatize, privatize. Allow us to build military bases on their soil. Many things can be done, but basically, they become servants to what I call the corporatocracy. You have to remember that today we have a global empire, and it's not an American empire. It's not a national empire. It doesn't help the American people very much. It's a corporate empire, and the big corporations rule. They control the politics of the United States, and to a large degree they control a great deal of the policies of countries like China, around the world.

John, looking specifically now at the case of Greece, of course you mentioned your belief that the country has become the victim of economic hit men and these international organizations . . . what was your reaction when you first heard about the crisis in Greece and the measures that were to be implemented in the country?

I've been following Greece for a long time. I was on Greek television. A Greek film company did a documentary called "Apology of an Economic Hit Man," and I also spent a lot of time in Iceland and in Ireland. I was invited to Iceland to help encourage the people there to vote on a referendum not to repay their debts, and I did that and encouraged them not to, and they did vote no, and as a result, Iceland is doing quite well now economically compared to the rest of Europe. Ireland, on the other hand: I tried to do the same thing there, but the Irish people apparently voted against the referendum, though there's been many reports that there was a lot of corruption.

"That's part of the game: convince people that they're wrong, that they're inferior. The corporatocracy is incredibly good at that."


In the case of Greece, my reaction was that "Greece is being hit." There's no question about it. Sure, Greece made mistakes, your leaders made some mistakes, but the people didn't really make the mistakes, and now the people are being asked to pay for the mistakes made by their leaders, often in cahoots with the big banks. So, people make tremendous amounts of money off of these so-called "mistakes," and now, the people who didn't make the mistakes are being asked to pay the price. That's consistent around the world: We've seen it in Latin America. We've seen it in Asia. We've seen it in so many places around the world.

This leads directly to the next question I had: From my observation, at least in Greece, the crisis has been accompanied by an increase in self-blame or self-loathing; there's this sentiment in Greece that many people have that the country failed, that the people failed . . . there's hardly even protest in Greece anymore, and of course there's a huge "brain drain" - there's a lot of people that are leaving the country. Does this all seem familiar to you when comparing to other countries in which you've had personal experience?

Sure, that's part of the game: convince people that they're wrong, that they're inferior. The corporatocracy is incredibly good at that, whether it is back during the Vietnam War, convincing the world that the North Vietnamese were evil; today it's the Muslims. It's a policy of them versus us: We are good. We are right. We do everything right. You're wrong. And in this case, all of this energy has been directed at the Greek people to say "you're lazy; you didn't do the right thing; you didn't follow the right policies," when in actuality, an awful lot of the blame needs to be laid on the financial community that encouraged Greece to go down this route. And I would say that we have something very similar going on in the United States, where people here are being led to believe that because their house is being foreclosed that they were stupid, that they bought the wrong houses; they overspent themselves.

"We know that austerity does not work in these situations."

The fact of the matter is their bankers told them to do this, and around the world, we've come to trust bankers - or we used to. In the United States, we never believed that a banker would tell us to buy a $500,000 house if in fact we could really only afford a $300,000 house. We thought it was in the bank's interest not to foreclose. But that changed a few years ago, and bankers told people who they knew could only afford a $300,000 house to buy a $500,000 house.

"Tighten your belt, in a few years that house will be worth a million dollars; you'll make a lot of money" . . . in fact, the value of the house went down; the market dropped out; the banks foreclosed on these houses, repackaged them, and sold them again. Double whammy. The people were told, "you were stupid; you were greedy; why did you buy such an expensive house?" But in actuality, the bankers told them to do this, and we've grown up to believe that we can trust our bankers. Something very similar on a larger scale happened in so many countries around the world, including Greece.

In Greece, the traditional major political parties are, of course, overwhelmingly in favor of the harsh austerity measures that have been imposed, but also we see that the major business and media interests are also overwhelmingly in support. Does this surprise you in the slightest?

No, it doesn't surprise me and yet it's ridiculous because austerity does not work. We've proven that time and time again, and perhaps the greatest proof was the opposite, in the United States during the Great Depression, when President Roosevelt initiated all these policies to put people back to work, to pump money into the economy. That's what works. We know that austerity does not work in these situations.

"What I didn't realize during any of this period was how much corporatocracy does not want a united Europe."


We also have to understand that, in the United States for example, over the past 40 years, the middle class has been on the decline on a real dollar basis, while the economy has been increasing. In fact, that's pretty much happened around the world. Globally, the middle class has been in decline. Big business needs to recognize - it hasn't yet, but it needs to recognize - that that serves nobody's long-term interest, that the middle class is the market.

And if the middle class continues to be in decline, whether it's in Greece or the United States or globally, ultimately businesses will pay the price; they won't have customers. Henry Ford once said: "I want to pay all my workers enough money so they can go out and buy Ford cars." That's a very good policy. That's wise. This austerity program moves in the opposite direction and it's a foolish policy.

In your book, which was written in 2004, you expressed hope that the euro would serve as a counterweight to American global hegemony, to the hegemony of the US dollar. Did you ever expect that we would see in the European Union what we are seeing today, with austerity that is not just in Greece but also in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and also several other countries as well?

What I didn't realize during any of this period was how much corporatocracy does not want a united Europe. We need to understand this. They may be happy enough with the euro, with one currency - they are happy to a certain degree by having it united enough that markets are open - but they do not want standardized rules and regulations. Let's face it, big corporations, the corporatocracy, take advantage of the fact that some countries in Europe have much more lenient tax laws, some have much more lenient environmental and social laws, and they can pit them against each other.

"[Rafael Correa] ... has to be aware that if you stand up too strongly against the system, if the economic hit men are not happy, if they don't get their way, then the jackals will come in and assassinate you or overthrow you in a coup."

What would it be like for big corporations if they didn't have their tax havens in places like Malta or other places? I think we need to recognize that what the corporatocracy saw at first, the solid euro, a European union seemed like a very good thing, but as it moved forward, they could see that what was going to happen was that social and environmental laws and regulations were going to be standardized. They didn't want that, so to a certain degree what's been going on in Europe has been because the corporatocracy wants Europe to fail, at least on a certain level.

You wrote about the examples of Ecuador and other countries, which after the collapse of oil prices in the late '80s found themselves with huge debts and this, of course, led to massive austerity measures . . . sounds all very similar to what we are now seeing in Greece. How did the people of Ecuador and other countries that found themselves in similar situations eventually resist?

Ecuador elected a pretty remarkable president, Rafael Correa, who has a PhD in economics from a United States university. He understands the system, and he understood that Ecuador took on these debts back when I was an economic hit man and the country was ruled by a military junta that was under the control of the CIA and the US. That junta took on these huge debts, put Ecuador in deep debt; the people didn't agree to that. When Rafael Correa was democratically elected, he immediately said, "We're not paying these debts; the people did not take on these debts; maybe the IMF should pay the debts and maybe the junta, which of course was long gone - moved to Miami or someplace - should pay the debts, maybe John Perkins and the other economic hit men should pay the debts, but the people shouldn't."

And since then, he's been renegotiating and bringing the debts way down and saying, "We might be willing to pay some of them." That was a very smart move; it reflected similar things that had been done at different times in places like Brazil and Argentina, and more recently, following that model, Iceland, with great success. I have to say that Correa has had some real setbacks since then . . . he, like so many presidents, has to be aware that if you stand up too strongly against the system, if the economic hit men are not happy, if they don't get their way, then the jackals will come in and assassinate you or overthrow you in a coup. There was an attempted coup against him; there was a successful coup in a country not too far away from him, Honduras, because these presidents stood up.

We have to realize that these presidents are in very, very vulnerable positions, and ultimately we the people have to stand up, because leaders can only do a certain amount. Today, in many places, leaders are not just vulnerable; it doesn't take a bullet to bring down a leader anymore. A scandal - a sex scandal, a drug scandal - can bring down a leader. We've seen it happen a number of times. These leaders are very aware that they are in very vulnerable positions: If they stand up or go against the status quo too strongly, they're going to be taken out, one way or another. They're aware of that, and it behooves we the people to really stand up for our own rights.

You mentioned the recent example of Iceland . . . other than the referendum that was held, what other measures did the country adopt to get out of this spiral of austerity and to return to growth and to a much more positive outlook for the country?

It's been investing money in programs that put people back to work and it's also been putting on trial some of the bankers that caused the problems, which has been a big uplift in terms of morale for the people. So Iceland has launched some programs that say "No, we're not going to go into austerity;

we're not going to pay back these loans; we're going to put the money into putting people back to work," and ultimately that's what drives an economy, people working. If you've got high unemployment, like you do in Greece today, extremely high unemployment, the country's always going to be in trouble. You've got to bring down that unemployment, you've got to hire people. It's so important to put people back to work. Your unemployment is about 28 percent; it's staggering, and disposable income has dropped 40 percent and it's going to continue to drop if you have high unemployment. So, the important thing for an economy is to get the employment up and get disposable income back up, so that people will invest in their country and in goods and services.

In closing, what message would you like to share with the people of Greece, as they continue to experience and to live through the very harsh results of the austerity policies that have been implemented in the country for the past three years?

I want to draw upon Greece's history. You're a proud, strong country, a country of warriors. The mythology of the warrior to some degree comes out of Greece, and so does democracy! And to realize that the marketplace is a democracy today, and how we spend our money is casting our ballot. Most political democracies are corrupt, including that of the United States. Democracy is not really working on a governmental basis because the corporations are in charge. But it is working on a market basis. I would encourage the people of Greece to stand up: Don't pay off those debts; have your own referendums; refuse to pay them off; go to the streets and strike.

And so, I would encourage the Greek people to continue to do this. Don't accept this criticism that it's your fault, you're to blame, you've got to suffer austerity, austerity, austerity. That only works for the rich people; it does not work for the average person or the middle class. Build up that middle class; bring employment back; bring disposable income back to the average citizen of Greece. Fight for that; make it happen; stand up for your rights; respect your history as fighters and leaders in democracy, and show the world!

[don]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Opinions abound . . . .


James Galbraith Explains That The Independence of All Western Nations Is at State In Greece’s Sunday Vote

James Galbraith, a professor at the University of Texas, explains what is at stake this Sunday. This is an important article. Because of the presstitute Western press, Americans, Europeans, Canadians, and Australians have no comprehension that their own liberty, or what little remains of it, is dependent on this vote. If the Greek people accept the conditions given to them in the ultimatum from the IMF, European Union, and European Central Bank, an ultimatum supported by Washington, the precedent will be established that the greed of the One Percent prevails over the sovereignty of peoples. There is a massive Western propaganda campaign to make Greeks fearful and to use this fear to manipulate a Greek vote against their own government and in favor of the Global One Percent.

Greece: Only the “No” Can Save Europe

James K. Galbraith

Greece is heading toward a referendum on Sunday on which the future of the country and its elected government will depend, and with the fate of the Euro and the European Union also in the balance. At present writing, Greece has missed a payment to the IMF, negotiations have broken off, and the great and good are writing off the Greek government and calling for a “Yes” vote, accepting the creditors’ terms for “reform,” in order to “save the Euro.” In all of these judgments, they are, not for the first time, mistaken.

To understand the bitter fight, it helps first to realize that the leaders of today’s Europe are shallow, cloistered people, preoccupied with their local politics and unequipped, morally or intellectually, to cope with a continental problem. This is true of Angela Merkel in Germany, of François Hollande in France, and it is true also of Christine Lagarde at the IMF. In particular North Europe’s leaders have not felt the crisis and do not know the economics, and in both respects they are the direct opposite of the Greeks.

For the North Europeans, the professionals at the “institutions” set the terms, and there is only possible outcome: to conform. The allowed negotiation was of one type only: more concessions by the Greek side. Any delay, any objection, could be seen only as posturing. Posturing is normal of course; politicians expect it. But to his fellow finance ministers the idea that the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis was not posturing did not occur.

When Varoufakis would not stop, their response was loathing and character assassination.

Contrary to some uninformed commentary, the Greek government knew from the beginning that it faced fierce hostility from Spain, Portugal and Ireland, deep suspicion from the mainstream left in France and Italy, implacable obstruction from Germany and the IMF, destabilization from the European Central Bank. But for a long time, these points were not proved internally. There are influential persons close to Tsipras who did not believe it. There are others who felt that, in the end, Greece would have to take what it could get. So Tsipras adopted a policy of giving ground. He let the accommodation caucus negotiate. And as they came back with concession after concession, he winced and agreed.

Ultimately, the Greek government found that it had to bow to the creditors’ demands for a large and permanent primary surplus target. This was a hard blow; it meant accepting the austerity that the government had been elected to reject. But the Greeks did insist on the right to determine the form of austerity, and that form would be mainly to raise taxes on the wealthiest Greeks and on business profits. At least the proposal protected Greece’s poorest pensioners from further devastating cuts, and it did not surrender on fundamental labor rights.

The creditors rejected even this. They insisted on austerity and also on dictating its precise shape. In this they made clear that they would not treat Greece as they have any other European country. The creditors tabled a take-it-or-leave-it offer that they knew Tsipras could not accept. Tsipras was on the line in any case. He decided to take his chances with a vote.

The stunned and furious reaction of the European leaders was, possibly, not entirely inauthentic. Perhaps they did not realize they were dealing with something not seen in Europe for some years: a political leader. Alexis Tsipras has only been on the international stage for a few months. He is brash, but charming. It would be easy for those as sheltered as Europe’s present leaders to fail to figure him out – to fail to realize that like Varoufakis, Tsipras meant what he said.

Faced with Tsipras’s decision to call a referendum, Merkel and her Deputy Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel , Hollande of France and David Cameron of Britain – and shamefully also Italy’s Matteo Renzi – all sent direct messages to the Greek people, that they would really be voting on membership in the Euro. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker went further, to say it would be a vote on membership in the European Union. It was an orchestrated threat: surrender or else.

In fact, neither the Euro nor the EU is at issue. The plain language of the referendum states that the vote is about the creditors’ terms. The threat to expel Greece is an obvious bluff. There is no legal way to eject Greece from the Eurozone or the EU. The referendum is actually, and obviously, on the survival of the elected government in Greece. The European leaders know this, and they are trying now to ensure that Tsipras falls.

What does Tsipras gain by a “no” vote? Apart from political survival, only this: it is his way of proving, once for all, that he cannot yield to the conditions being demanded. So then the onus will be back on the creditors, and if they choose to destroy a European country, the crime will on their hands for all to see.

That said, there is no guarantee that Tsipras will win on Sunday. In the January elections, his party only won forty percent; now he needs a majority. Fear and confusion abound. The Greeks are, in effect, voting for a choice of unknowns, which can never be a sure thing.

If the Greeks vote “no”, there is obvious uncertainty over the economic future. Perhaps the banks will stay shut, the deposits will be lost and the creditors will carry through their threats. The uncertainty is amplified, unavoidably, by the fact that the government cannot campaign to stay in the Euro and also explain how it would handle the trauma of being forced out. If there have been preparations, they are a well-kept secret so far.

If the Greeks vote “yes”, on the other hand, the uncertainty is political. SYRIZA may split and its government may fall. What then? There is no credible alternative government in Greece. Moreover, it is hard to think that any government formed to accept the surrender and deepen the depression would last very long.

And it seems certain that after a “Yes”, a surrender, and a deeper depression, the official Opposition would no longer be the pro-European Left that is today’s government in Greece. Europe will have destroyed that. The new Opposition, and someday the government, will be either a Left or a Right party opposed to the Euro and to the Union. It could be Golden Dawn, the nazi party. The lesson of Greece also will not be lost on Oppositions elsewhere, including the rising far right in France.

The irony of the case is that the true hope – the only hope – for Europe lies in a “No” vote on Sunday, followed by renewed negotiations and a better deal. “Yes” is a vote for fear, against dignity and independence. Fear is powerful – but dignity and independence have a way of coming back.

[GRG55]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Good thing this Greek thing is an endless crisis. Gawd knows what all the pundits would have to write about if it ever ends...

[gnk]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Many worthless pundits, may I add, with their own agendas, good intentions or not. Too many theoreticians that are immune to the consequences either way, and with little local knowledge.

I don't see many posters here posting articles written by Greeks actually living in Greece - both pro and con articles.

And to think, we live in the "information age" where everything is accessible.

[GRG55]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Many worthless pundits, may I add, with their own agendas, good intentions or not. Too many theoreticians that are immune to the consequences either way, and with little local knowledge.

I don't see many posters here posting articles written by Greeks actually living in Greece - both pro and con articles.

And to think, we live in the "information age" where everything is accessible.

Back a few years (2012/13) a couple of us tried. One example:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ction?p=256449

But the Greek we chose is now the Finance Minister and, apparently, now part of the problem

I have been wondering if I was to sail among some of the outer islands I have been to before whether I would actually see any real difference in the pace of life. It might be comforting to find out that some things endure even the most elaborate of political ambitions.

[vt]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

GNK, you have to realize that some tend call anyone that takes a more moderate view as conservatives or worse.

As one who has consistently called the left and the right wrong, and called for a completely new system towards the center, you'd think they'd get the message.

Not to worry. My leftist friends think I'm too much to the right and the conservatives think I''m too liberal. The fanatics on both sides are caught up too much in their lingo and and pseudo intellectual polemics to understand the real experience of the people.

Unfortunately there area some who cry libel in any disagreement instead of engaging in reasonable discourse.

Thank you for your contributions as someone who is there at ground central and really understands the situation.

[jk]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

Good thing this Greek thing is an endless crisis. Gawd knows what all the pundits would have to write about if it ever ends...

portugal, ireland, spain, italy, france.....

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Will We All Be Greeks?

John Kass

Chicago Tribune

The politicians and economists have many fine theories about what's happening in Greece, and what will happen after Sunday's big vote.

Will there be more chaos? A failed state that can't pay its debts, left on its own to offer cut-rate vacations to the rest of Europe, its people reduced to being servants in their own country?

Or will future generations be subject to unremitting misery at the hands of the Germans, and more taxes in a country that has lost more than a quarter of its economy in recent years?

The theories sound rational. But to a desperate and frightened people, it must all sound like the barking of dogs.
I'm no economist. But I am an American of Greek descent, born to an immigrant who believed America to be his salvation. And every child of immigrants shares this: We have one foot in the Old World, one in the new, and we live between them.

My heart breaks for Greece, yes, but I worry about my country, America, where useful idiots and schemers tell the people that what is happening over there could never, ever happen here. But reality ultimately penetrates every dream. And rhetoric cannot stand up to mathematics when the money is gone.

"For the moment we are all fine," said my friend Andriana Tolis, who called me from her family's sweet shop in a working-class neighborhood near Athens.

She'd called in to Dan Proft's morning program on WIND-AM 560 where I filled in as co-host this past week.
"We don't know what we're supposed to be voting for on Sunday. God only knows," she said.

On Sunday Greeks vote on whether to stay with the European common currency, the euro, or go with their own currency and let the market determine its value.

"Really, it's confusing," Andriana said. "Half of the people tell you we're going to go out of the euro and back to the drachma, and others say, 'No, this is (a vote) just so we can stay in.' And others say, 'No, we're not going to go out of the euro if we vote no or not.' Everything's uncertain."

What is certain are the numbers.

Greece has failed to pay its debts, and the nation is drowning in high taxes and has lost about 25 percent of its gross domestic product. The unemployment rate among young people is over 50 percent. The young leave the country. The old hold fast to pensions that feed their unemployed children and unemployed grandchildren.

In an interview on Proft's show earlier in the week, Daniel Hannan, an Englishman and conservative member of the European Parliament, said, "Anyone who says there's an easy way out for Greece from here is lying or deluding himself."

Perhaps the best outcome, he said, would be for Greece to vote to leave the euro, develop the drachma and focus on selling low-cost tourism and shipping. The alternative, staying with the euro, would mean generations of bleak servitude.

"It is completely beyond me, how ordering Greece to raise its taxes — which is what the EU is doing — can possibly help a country that has been pummeled in the way Greece has been.

"The last thing they need is to have yet more money taken out of private-sector circulation. There are no good outcomes here for Greece, but leaving the euro without question is the least bad outcome for them."

I don't know the answer. What I do know is what I saw a few years ago while reporting from Athens, as angry protesters mobbed Constitution Square.

Hours before, an old man, a worker, committed suicide in the square, unable to reconcile his personal financial dissolution and his nation's economic collapse. At sunset, the protesters used hammers to break the beautiful marble steps of the Hotel Grande Bretagne.

I stood there as they ran up to the white marble, smashed it and scurried back into the crowd. The anarchists threw the marble chunks at police, at the empty night sky, raging over what was happening to their country, to their futures, as the economy collapsed after generations of political lies, corruption and overspending.

Andriana, who grew up on Chicago's Northwest Side before moving to Greece, had tracked me down at the hotel. She keeps up with the city and reads the Tribune online. We'd never met, but I took a taxi to the sweet shop the next day. I met her husband and children, all hardworking, optimistic, determined.
T
he other day on the phone to the radio program, she told me (and anyone listening) that she would be attending a wedding in a few weeks.

A wedding in Rizes, the most beautiful village in all the world, my family's village.

When Hitler occupied Greece and the Germans starved Athens — starving the city as people literally dropped dead in the streets and were left there — Rizes and other villagers had one advantage.
They could eat, at least. They lived on what they could grow. They plowed fields with mules. They picked wild greens. They survived.

And even with the new uncertainty and Germany insistent, it's good to hear about village weddings and new life.
"It will be a nice wedding," Andriana said. "In your village. In Rizes."

God help them all.