Elon Musk's Other Company

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

On a somewhat related note(Tesla), I saw my first BMW I8 the other day parked right across the street.

Spoke to a BMW Group General Manager I know. Sounds like a "no BS" very impressive vehicle without the Tesla shortcomings.

[GRG55]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Say what you will about Elon Musk, but he is certainly willing to make a big show of taking on big competitors in mature markets.
We talk mostly about Tesla vs Toyota, Ford, et al, but he also has SpaceX.

SpaceX is a company that designs, builds and launches large heavy-lift rockets to carry payloads for NASA and DoD.
The only competitor is United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing Defense Space & Security, and Lockheed Martin Space Systems.
ULA is essentially the monopoly supplier of launch services to the U.S. government with the Atlas and Delta rocket families.

Musk is working hard to get the government to certify SpaceX as acceptable, like Boeing/Lockheed.

Some news about that courtesy of Aviation Week and Space Technology.



Full article here http://aviationweek.com/defense/revi...an-focus-trust

I'm not surprised that technical data and design reviews are the sticking point.
Launching jillion-dollar spy satellites that are one-of-a-kind, critical to national security, and which might take a decade to replace makes the satellite owner/investor nervous.

Due diligence gets pretty big.

It's hard to accept a vendor who says "Just trust me". The investor prefers to hire a few hundred of their own engineers to review thousands and thousands of pages of technical documents provided by the rocket vendor, looking for that one little flaw that might make things go boom.

SpaceX stock is private, but Google and Fidelity have both invested so you can get some indirect exposure through them, if you think it's smart.


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Apparently space is (still) not as easy as it looks. NASA learned that lesson almost 3 decades ago when it tried to make the public believe civilians going into space was not much more difficult than flying to Paris, and launched a teacher with disastrous result.

After two recent re-supply failures, this apparently was a rather critical mission for the Space Station, including a new docking adapter.

On the bright side, there would appear to be a small but high-profile future customer base for VirZOOM on the Space Station...when they successfully deliver a VR headset.

"...The mission's primary objectivewas to deliver the Dragon to the space station with more than two and a half tons of supplies, equipment and experiments — ranging from a new docking adapter for accommodating future U.S.-built spaceships to a virtual-reality headset for the station's crew..."

SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Breaks Up After Launch With Space Station Cargo

JUN 28 2015, 11:34 AM ET

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket exploded and broke up on Sunday just minutes after its launch with a robotic Dragon cargo capsule headed for the International Space Station. It was the third failure of a space station resupply mission in eight months.

The Falcon took off right on time after a seemingly flawless countdown, rising into the sunny skies over Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florda at 10:21 a.m. ET. But a little more than two minutes after liftoff, video showed the Falcon disintegrating in a blast.

"We appear to have had a launch vehicle failure," NASA spokesman George Diller reported. Air Force officials said the rocket "experienced an anomaly" 148 seconds into the flight...

[lektrode]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Apparently space is (still) not as easy as it looks....

dammit GRG - ya beat me to it - course it was the usual/now typical iTulip choke that skunked me on the scoop...
;)

[dcarrigg]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Apparently space is (still) not as easy as it looks. NASA learned that lesson almost 3 decades ago when it tried to make the public believe civilians going into space was not much more difficult than flying to Paris, and launched a teacher with disastrous result.

After two recent re-supply failures, this apparently was a rather critical mission for the Space Station, including a new docking adapter.

On the bright side, there would appear to be a small but high-profile future customer base for VirZOOM on the Space Station...when they successfully deliver a VR headset.

"...The mission's primary objectivewas to deliver the Dragon to the space station with more than two and a half tons of supplies, equipment and experiments — ranging from a new docking adapter for accommodating future U.S.-built spaceships to a virtual-reality headset for the station's crew..."

SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Breaks Up After Launch With Space Station Cargo

JUN 28 2015, 11:34 AM ET

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket exploded and broke up on Sunday just minutes after its launch with a robotic Dragon cargo capsule headed for the International Space Station. It was the third failure of a space station resupply mission in eight months.

The Falcon took off right on time after a seemingly flawless countdown, rising into the sunny skies over Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florda at 10:21 a.m. ET. But a little more than two minutes after liftoff, video showed the Falcon disintegrating in a blast.

"We appear to have had a launch vehicle failure," NASA spokesman George Diller reported. Air Force officials said the rocket "experienced an anomaly" 148 seconds into the flight...

Someone will know better, but isn''t this something like their 5th failure out of 20 or so launches? 25% failure rates are not normal for low earth orbit trips, so far as I recall. The Lockheed and Boeing trips don't seem to end up on fire so much - the Atlas has failed what? Once in 50 shots? Something like a 2% rate? Neither do the Russian trips on the Soyuz. Neither did NASA. There might be some issues specific to SpaceX at play here...

Then again maybe I'm missing something, or maybe I shouldn't be counting some of these. Who knows. It just seems like they end up not doing what they're supposed to really often compared to other companies with more track record, a longer history, and more traditional management style...

[don]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

[lektrode]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Someone will know better, but isn''t this something like their 5th failure out of 20 or so launches? 25% failure rates are not normal for low earth orbit trips, so far as I recall. The Lockheed and Boeing trips don't seem to end up on fire so much - the Atlas has failed what? Once in 50 shots? Something like a 2% rate? Neither do the Russian trips on the Soyuz. Neither did NASA. There might be some issues specific to SpaceX at play here...

Then again maybe I'm missing something, or maybe I shouldn't be counting some of these. Who knows. It just seems like they end up not doing what they're supposed to really often compared to other companies with more track record, a longer history, and more traditional management style...

uh huh... but..
then again, the more traditional members of the .mil industrial complex aint zactly on the same F(riend) O(f) B(arack) list

[lektrode]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

here's the vid link (from ruperts place)

Watch the Flight

am wondren if it was spaceX's guy doing the announcing:

"...adding to the int'l spacestation access to future american rockets..."

and even as the first 'spontaneous unintended ignition' happens...

"...shows vehicle on course, on track..."

he's left... ummmm... speechless ?

[GRG55]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Someone will know better, but isn''t this something like their 5th failure out of 20 or so launches? 25% failure rates are not normal for low earth orbit trips, so far as I recall. The Lockheed and Boeing trips don't seem to end up on fire so much - the Atlas has failed what? Once in 50 shots? Something like a 2% rate? Neither do the Russian trips on the Soyuz. Neither did NASA. There might be some issues specific to SpaceX at play here...

Then again maybe I'm missing something, or maybe I shouldn't be counting some of these. Who knows. It just seems like they end up not doing what they're supposed to really often compared to other companies with more track record, a longer history, and more traditional management style...

Would you buy a used rocket from this man?




To be fair, in most things aviation there just isn't any room for error without a catastrophic consequence. A single missing cotter pin or safety wire can result in some truly exciting moments on an airplane or helicopter. On a space vehicle, with speeds and stresses that are multiples of general or commercial aviation, the margin is even smaller (as Morton-Thiokol's infamous O-ring demonstrated). A read through the findings from the Virgin Galactic Spaceship 2 breakup shows how even a rather simple human error will result in fatal consequences.

[santafe2]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Someone will know better, but isn''t this something like their 5th failure out of 20 or so launches? 25% failure rates are not normal for low earth orbit trips, so far as I recall. The Lockheed and Boeing trips don't seem to end up on fire so much - the Atlas has failed what? Once in 50 shots? Something like a 2% rate?

Not to defend Space X as I don't know much about this enterprise but the early Atlas M-65 was a disaster. I was a kid in Los Angeles in the early 60s and it was regular sport to watch an Atlas launch in the western sky which would as often as not end in a spectacular display of pyrotechnics. I've visited Vandenberg AFB twice in my life and the first time was as a little kid to watch an Atlas launch. The rocket began to gyrate erratically almost immediately and exploded a few seconds later. It wasn't really close but my life passed before me as the small particles rained down around us. The only other time I visited Vandenberg was after winning an auction for a worthy cause to tour the Space Shuttle Challenger. A few months later the famous O-ring accident occurred. That tour still haunts me. I wouldn't judge Space X to harshly.

And as for my point of view, I've nothing against space travel but if you don't mind, I'll stay as far away from it as possible, it's a very dangerous pursuit.

[jk]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Not to defend Space X as I don't know much about this enterprise but the early Atlas M-65 was a disaster. I was a kid in Los Angeles in the early 60s and it was regular sport to watch an Atlas launch in the western sky which would as often as not end in a spectacular display of pyrotechnics. I've visited Vandenberg AFB twice in my life and the first time was as a little kid to watch an Atlas launch. The rocket began to gyrate erratically almost immediately and exploded a few seconds later. It wasn't really close but my life passed before me as the small particles rained down around us. The only other time I visited Vandenberg was after winning an auction for a worthy cause to tour the Space Shuttle Challenger. A few months later the famous O-ring accident occurred. That tour still haunts me. I wouldn't judge Space X to harshly.

And as for my point of view, I've nothing against space travel but if you don't mind, I'll stay as far away from it as possible, it's a very dangerous pursuit.

the stupidity is putting real payloads on top of rockets which are at-best beta, more likely alpha. my guess is that it's mostly a way to funnel money to space-x.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

I'm not sure if I posted here or elsewhere about Musk's rockets but:

payload insurance

Who pays?

And I wonder if it's open source what the payload insurance premium load would be compared to legacy systems and Musk's new higher risk system.

Is it possible Musk's rocket could be cheaper, but insuring his payloads makes him uncompetitive?

[charliebrown]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

I have a friend who works at United Launch Alliance. A few years ago Musk could do no wrong and walked on water. The common wisdom from management was that everything that Musk builds is far superior than anything that can be turned out by ULA. Maybe some of the upper brass are having to re-evaluate perceptions.

[BK]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

For the moment Elon Musk is still considered a genius.

Kind of reminds me of http://www.economist.com/node/334871

Or
http://money.cnn.com/2000/05/29/investing/q_madoff/

Anyone remember the Internet Evangelist of CMGI
http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_43/b3652001.htm

CMGi is my favorite and sadly my sister had $80,000 in CMGi. I begged and pleaded with her to sell in 1999 and she kept telling me it was a long term holding. Even more sad is it represented 80% of her wealth.

David Wetherell is back in the game with Biotech investing.

[lektrode]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

For the moment Elon Musk is still considered a genius.

Kind of reminds me of http://www.economist.com/node/334871

Or
http://money.cnn.com/2000/05/29/investing/q_madoff/

Anyone remember the Internet Evangelist of CMGI
http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_43/b3652001.htm
....

hey - no need to be concerned - queen hillary (and the rest of the demorat holdovers from the late 90's) will continue on with osama's...
uhhh... i mean obozo's... programs and 'fix' everything!

[wayiwalk]

Re: Elon Musk's Other Company

Would you buy a used rocket from this man?


To be fair, in most things aviation there just isn't any room for error without a catastrophic consequence. A single missing cotter pin or safety wire can result in some truly exciting moments on an airplane or helicopter. On a space vehicle, with speeds and stresses that are multiples of general or commercial aviation, the margin is even smaller (as Morton-Thiokol's infamous O-ring demonstrated). A read through the findings from the Virgin Galactic Spaceship 2 breakup shows how even a rather simple human error will result in fatal consequences.

From the software world of "beta versions" to the present mil.ind. complex corporate mentality of relocating entire divisions to different states in a way that makes it difficult for the senior staff to move to another state while they have teenagers in high school, achieving cutting cost by effectively cutting average salaries but at the same time, losing expertise, it is not a terrible surprise to see Space X struggling since they did not grow that sort of expertise organically.

My first 8 years in the real world of work (more than 20 years ago) was at Grumman Aerospace (in the 60's, home of the Lunar Module, Gulfstream corporate aircraft, the 70's the F-14 and in the 80's the X-29 are a few good examples of their works).

There were more than a few really geeky, nerdy, outcast-y senior engineers in the mix. They were necessary because they had knowledge that was essential to making these complex systems work. I wonder how folks like that survive in the current corporate workplace, do they get the ax or fade away? I don't see companies seeing the big picture as much. No matter what, something is lost.