iTulip?

[jk]

Re: iTulip?

Good news for investors is that munis have Chapter 9 and a state legislature to slash pay and benefits whenever they want. Bondholders never take a haircut. Not in America. They'd rather let the city/state burn to the ground first. Saw it in Scranton where they dropped the police force to minimum wage, but didn't ask the bondholders on the crooked downtown parking garage deal to pay a penny.

But I was thinking national scale anyways, not municipal. Lots of things effect sovereign debt. Have to look at the yield curve vs. inflation. Have to look at raw power. There's one historical surefire way to re-write the books. Just load the guns. It's more than just a method of deferring taxes.

bondholders used to take haircuts in the form of inflation. i remember when bonds were nicknamed "certificates of guaranteed conviscation" because it was assumed their future value would be inflated away.

Sovereign or "government" debt in whatever form is a method of deferring taxes, nothing more.

not so if there is a non-zero positive rate of inflation.

[dcarrigg]

Re: iTulip?

bondholders used to take haircuts in the form of inflation. i remember when bonds were nicknamed "certificates of guaranteed conviscation" because it was assumed their future value would be inflated away.

Yeah, I was thinking about munis in the modern days.

I've recommended Cate Long's "MuniLand" blog at Reuters before. She was really on top of her game. She also operated a wiki on regulating the financial industry. I was very sad to see her leave last summer. Now she's providing info for Puerto Rico bond holders.

Anyways, here's but one example of the "bondholder first" that has taken root over the past decade. There are many, many more.

Privatize the 11% return on the bond profits. Socialize the loss on the Chapter 9 with property tax hikes and revoked pensions. The 21st century free market is all about brave risktakers playing Russian Roulette with guns pointed at the audience instead of the players.

[llanlad2]

Re: iTulip?

There is nothing unique about the S&P 500 companies, or their CEOs. Can anyone name one business enterprise that does not depend on consumers? Even the investment banks need someone willing to pay to "consume" their products and services (and gawd knows some of those folks would sell their own grandmothers if they got paid to do so).

All businesses rely on consumers. But if those consumers are spending all their money on debt servicing and taxes then sooner or later your profits will go down and you may even go out of business and have to wave bye bye to your 10 million dollar salary. The pols don't mind small businesses going to the wall because they don't fund them. What is unique about SP 500 companies is the influence they have. It is now in their interest that consumers are saved from debt whereas previously it was in their interest that consumers took on debt to fund their next purchase.

[jk]

Re: iTulip?

Privatize the 11% return on the bond profits. Socialize the loss on the Chapter 9 with property tax hikes and revoked pensions. The 21st century free market is all about brave risktakers playing Russian Roulette with guns pointed at the audience instead of the players.

agreed. and if inflation was the way bondholders took a haircut, what does that say about current conditions? bondholders are in the catbird seat. until interest rates go up, that is.

[rlskaggs2003]

Re: iTulip?

The 21st century free market is all about brave risktakers playing Russian Roulette with guns pointed at the audience instead of the players.

What a gem! If you don't mind, I'd like to stick this one in my personal quote library.

[dcarrigg]

Re: iTulip?

What a gem! If you don't mind, I'd like to stick this one in my personal quote library.

Go to town!

[Anarchist]

Re: iTulip?

I haven't subscribed in over a year because I am waiting for the new article to arrive, which has no official ETA as far as I know. EJ has made rough estimates multiple times in the past 6 months but I find that whilst EJ is great at projecting the future of the global economy, he is he bad at sticking to suggested dates of article releases. On that note, I also understand here at iTulip the majority prefer quality and accuracy over frequency (of articles).

For me personally, I have a full time job and family etc and have no time to keep up with weekly updates and random comments from EJ/Fred, across dozens of private forum threads, so I personally would much rather see at least 1 quarterly article with whatever the latest thought processes are, nicely summarized.

Even better, I'd pay to listen/watch video updates from EJ if they were able to be produced on a somewhat regular basis. I've found that EJ is articulate and to the point in interviews and even great at summarizing whatever his latest theme/thesis is. His articles on the other hand, are extremely long, his sentence structure unusually complex, requiring multiple reads of the article (more like a small novel if I print it), and nearly always leave me guessing as to what the actual direction is of X subject is. Having said this, I do understand that the waters have gotten so muddy, and that the economic direction of entire continents these days hinge on which word is used by Central Banks in their monthly speeches, making traditional methods of projection far less useful. It's a gargantuan and extremely complex task to do what EJ does, and I appreciate it, just wish the delivery was a bit different.

I agree Adeptus. I would sign up for the paid side again if there was some regularity to the recommendations. "Stay in equities, stay out of gold, sell all bonds", and the rationale for sticking with a certain allocation would help. I agree with jk and others who say we are in muddy waters but the fact is that you still have to keep your wealth somewhere and that should be weighed and reasoned out on a regular basis.

[Mega]

Re: iTulip?

I don't blame EJ at all..............unless he willing to "Bed" Yellen he has little chance of find out what is NEXT on their mad agenda. I guess we just have to await this thing to play out........i would guess 2016-2018 time frame.....
Mike

[Rafael]

Re: iTulip?

I have written several times to the Admin that the site is stale, multi-year old material is recycled, the GUI and navigation is anachronistic. It appears that the site is neglected.

[Master Shake]

Re: iTulip?

The 21st century free market is all about brave risktakers playing Russian Roulette with guns pointed at the audience instead of the players.

F**king brilliant! I, too, will be using that line.

[vt]

Re: iTulip?

Actually they are taking no risk. Aided and abetted by both political parties they control much of what used to be free markets.

See FIRE. Acknowledge no banksters or Wall Streeters in jail or on trial.

[DSpencer]

Re: iTulip?

Hello everyone, I see that EJ hasn't posted an article for over a year.

Is iTulip officially dead? If not, can someone fill me in on the current status?

Thanks,
A

I just started a similar thread on select news before seeing this one. I'm on the pay side also and I disagree that the site is very much alive. Certainly not compared to past years. I have also been having an issue for at least several months where the site loads extremely slowly. I assumed it was temporary but it hasn't improved much.

If the purpose of itulip going forward is to deliver one article every 14 months, a message board seems to be a strange platform.

Anyway, I'm no real help considering I have the same question.

[Slimprofits]

Re: iTulip?

my fear is that we are approaching a replay of 1937.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...isk-with-rates

[Anarchist]

Re: iTulip?

I just started a similar thread on select news before seeing this one. I'm on the pay side also and I disagree that the site is very much alive. Certainly not compared to past years. I have also been having an issue for at least several months where the site loads extremely slowly. I assumed it was temporary but it hasn't improved much.

If the purpose of itulip going forward is to deliver one article every 14 months, a message board seems to be a strange platform.

Anyway, I'm no real help considering I have the same question.

DSpencer, in general what has the commentary been to your post over there?

EJ has closed itulip before and then reopened it later so it wouldn't be unprecedented.

[porter]

Re: iTulip?

Any update on this from EJ? My subscription expired. Should I renew it or no?