What these charts tell us

[gorinv]

Can anyone piece together any likely scenarios for the global economy from these two charts?

Unprecedented rapidly rising US dollar index driving up borrowing costs for EMs



EM projected corporate debt redemptions:



How will this play. Neutral - catastrophic for EM's? How long before the US starts to stress?

[shiny!]

Re: What these charts tell us

Can't answer your question, but that first chart sure looks parabolic. How long can that continue?

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What these charts tell us

Can't answer your question, but that first chart sure looks parabolic. How long can that continue?

I could see it breaking the high of 2001/02 corresponding with a crash.

With the dollar rising and rates potentially increasing in the US, Emerging markets are done.

[GRG55]

Re: What these charts tell us

I could see it breaking the high of 2001/02 corresponding with a crash.

With the dollar rising and rates potentially increasing in the US, Emerging markets are done.

Barring a sudden recession in the USA, I can't see how rates won't head up now. The port workers strike, WalMart increasing wages and other indicators are showing rising wage pressure in the USA. That is one of the preconditions for the Fed to raise rates in most cycles.

The Fed's job is ease the market into accepting that with "forward guidance"...so far, so good.

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: What these charts tell us

Massive deflation everywhere.

[GRG55]

Re: What these charts tell us

Massive deflation everywhere.

Only if measured in US$. If your income is in Euros your costs have been going up quite rapidly in recent months.