U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

[dcarrigg]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

guess it all depends on what supermarket one frequents, eh dc?

i can think of several that DONT + WONT stock any of those brands (not that i can afford to shop at em)

so yes, we do STILL have consumer choice - even tho it feels more and more like we dont.

I dunno, lek. I can drive 45 minutes (if there's no traffic) to get to a 'whole paycheck' and give (twice) my money to John Mackey instead (pick your billionaire). But the three choices (supermarkets) in town are going to make me decide between A1 and Lea and Perrins - Warren B or Warren B.

We've both been around the block a few times. It's not hard to remember back 20-30 years and think about a time when the supermarket was full of brands that were actually competing. Now-a-days you get a duopoly at best. Monopoly at worst.

It struck me driving down the DW Highway in old New Hampshire just how many of those once-competing stores were now owned by or selling stuff for the same people. Go by Jordan's Furniture near Spit Brook Rd, that's Warren B. Pampered Chef's up on the left. That's Warren B again. Home Depot on the right? Warren B - biggest shareholder. Then there's a Kaplan test prep joint on the right - Warren B again. Pass Shaw's a little further up - Ceberus. Chrystler Jeep Dodge dealership - Ceberus. Head out west to the hospital, and it's Ceberus again. Drive up to main street and pass more Ceberus rent-a-car joints like Budget at East Hollis St.

And that's not thinking about all the stuff on the shelves. The wrigley gum, duracell batteries, and all that other good stuff I listed that comes from Warren B.

I mean, I don't think there is a single American family who have gone a year without buying one or more items from Warren Buffet. I just don't think it's possible.

It would make for an interesting reality show trying to pull it off.

[shiny!]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

I mean, I don't think there is a single American family who have gone a year without buying one or more items from Warren Buffet. I just don't think it's possible.

It would make for an interesting reality show trying to pull it off.

I'm allergic to reality TV, but that's a show I would actually watch. It could never get made for network TV, though, because who on earth would sponsor it?

[santafe2]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

We've both been around the block a few times. It's not hard to remember back 20-30 years and think about a time when the supermarket was full of brands that were actually competing. Now-a-days you get a duopoly at best. Monopoly at worst.

It just happened here last year with Office Depot and Office Max. These two destroyed all the local competition over the last few years, then they merged. They used to compete on some items, have specials to attract customers but not any longer. My solution, plan a little bit ahead and shop online. Our old HP printer / copier, etc . finally died and I went to OD and OM to check what they have. I found the printer I wanted and it was the exact same price at both stores, (no surprise). I bought it new on eBay for 40% off.

As for Kraft and Heinz...we shouldn't be eating much processed food anyway....Lunchables? Oscar Meyer? Velvetta? Yikes!

For everyday items like Ketchup and Mayonnaise it might take a little research the first time but it's not impossible. We use Amazon Prime to get connected with smaller companies and free 2 day shipping on most items.

[vt]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

Man DC, you don't get out much. I can go 5 miles in any direction and find no fewer than 7 different grocery store chains. Who the heck eats processed foods anyway?

I've got Costco, Target, Walmart, Big Lots. I've got 3 major drug store chains, and if I needed a prescription I could also get it filled at any of the grocery stores, plus Walmart, Target, and Costco.

I've got at least a half dozen major type of toothpaste companies plus a few specialty brands.

I've got at least a half dozen auto parts chains.

I can choose from at least 10 global automobile manufacturers.

I have 5 or more sources of home improvement.

TV? There is FIOS, Direct TV, Cable. Who watches TV anymore. Internet stream Redbox, Netflix, Hulu, Yidio, or You Tube.

Cell phone? Iphone, Samsung, Droid, Nexus, Amazon, HTC, etc. Computer? Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus, etc., etc.

Any type of service need there are a half dozen or more choices at all price and configurations to chose from.

But I only have one county government. Try fighting an appraisal. Try complaining about service.

One State government and one Federal government. Unless I'm a donor it's hit or miss.

Now there are many excellent to good government employees, and some private companies lack good customer service. But I have an overwhelming choice of private goods. I have real competition.

Better, faster, cheaper, easier.

[touchring]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

BTW: Buffet's smashing Kraft and Heinz together today. Now BH not only is the largest shareholder in Coke, but they've got your Heinz ketchup,

I'm glad to have kicked my Diet Coke addiction 10 years ago. This thing is really toxic. I'm sure it would have killed me if I continued drinking for another 10-15 years.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

It's more about what's on the shelf. Switching from Colgate to Toms of Maine? (same company) Buying a better drill...Dewalt instead of Black & Decker? (same company)

[don]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

An interesting and highly illustrative chart plotting growth evolution:




And the conclusion? “A provocative “exercise in subtraction” suggests that future growth in consumption per capita for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution could fall below 0.5 percent per year for an extended period of decades.” Illustrated here:

Quoting from the paper, the author establishes the following basic points concerning the prospects for future growth (up to 50 years out from 2007 and abstracting from the fallout from the ongoing crisis):

1. “Since Solow’s seminal work in the 1950s, economic growth has been regarded as a continuous process that will persist forever. But there was virtually no economic growth before 1750, suggesting that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well be a unique episode in human history rather than a guarantee of endless future advance at the same rate.”
2. “The frontier established by the U.S. for output per capita, and the U. K. before it, gradually began to grow more rapidly after 1750, reached its fastest growth rate in the middle of the 20th century, and has slowed down since. It is in the process of slowing down further.”
3. “A useful organizing principle to understand the pace of growth since 1750 is the sequence of three industrial revolutions. The first (IR #1) with its main inventions between 1750 and 1830 created steam engines, cotton spinning, and railroads. The second (IR #2) was the most important, with its three central inventions of electricity, the internal combustion engine, and running water with indoor plumbing, in the relatively short interval of 1870 to 1900. Both the first two revolutions required about 100 years for their full effects to percolate through the economy. During the two decades 1950-70 the benefits of the IR #2 were still transforming the economy, including air conditioning, home appliances, and the interstate highway system. After 1970 productivity growth slowed markedly, most plausibly because the main ideas of IR #2 had by and large been implemented by then.”
4. “The computer and Internet revolution (IR #3) began around 1960 and reached its climax in the dot.com era of the late 1990s, but its main impact on productivity has withered away in the past eight years. Many of the inventions that replaced tedious and repetitive clerical labor by computers happened a long time ago, in the 1970s and 1980s. Invention since 2000 has centered on entertainment and communication devices that are smaller, smarter, and more capable, but do not fundamentally change labor productivity or the standard of living in the way that electric light, motor cars, or indoor plumbing changed it.”
5. “… It is useful to think of the innovative process as a series of discrete inventions followed by incremental improvements which ultimately tap the full potential of the initial invention. For the first two industrial revolutions, the incremental follow-up process lasted at least 100 years. For the more recent IR #3, the follow-up process was much faster. Taking the inventions and their follow-up improvements together, many of these processes could happen only once. Notable examples are speed of travel, temperature of interior space, and urbanization itself.”
6. “The benefits of ongoing innovation on the standard of living will not stop and will continue, albeit at a slower pace than in the past. But future growth will be held back from the potential fruits of innovation by six “headwinds” buffeting the U.S. economy, some of which are shared in common with other countries and others are uniquely American. Future growth in real GDP per capita will be slower than in any extended period since the late 19th century, and growth in real consumption per capita for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution will be even slower than that.”
7. “The headwinds [to growth] include the end of the “demographic dividend;” rising inequality; factor price equalization stemming from the interplay between globalization and the Internet; the twin educational problems of cost inflation in higher education and poor secondary student performance; the consequences of environmental regulations and taxes that will make growth harder to achieve than a century ago; and the overhang of consumer and government debt. All of these problems were already evident in 2007, and it simplifies our thinking about long-run growth to pretend that the post-2007 crisis did not happen.”

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...six-headwinds/

[gwynedd1]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

The problem with property taxes is that it is a form of monopoly that is far, far more difficult and painful to avoid than some of the other taxes or frictional costs that dcarrigg mentioned. In many places I've been looking at, the rate of increase in property taxes is far greater than the rate of increase in wages. While I do realize that services cost money and have no quarrel paying taxes to support those services, if we allow that wages for public workers will not be reduced (which I also support), can we at least keep them in line with the gains that private sector workers get?

The Federal Reserve has done its part to juice housing prices but wages have not even come close to keeping up. What frustrates me tremendously is that with this windfall in revenue from property taxes, the government spends every penny of it and needs yet more.

The point that has often been made by those that adhere to the old classical models is that with liberal finance, the cost of housing changes very little since the "economic rent" is merely converted into a security for interest payments. And then once you reclassify land owners as a branch of government, anyone who pays rent cannot avoid the rentiers tax. Though its really not so much a problem with small estates and tight credit since the wealth tends to recirculate. However with the large estate, debtor owned real estate all of the wealth can be effectively sucked out of the region entirely. At that point property taxes are the only fix for local governments.

[lektrode]

Re: U.S. In Worse Fiscal Shape Than Greece?

....

1. “The headwinds [to growth] include the end of the “demographic dividend;” rising inequality; factor price equalization stemming from the interplay between globalization and the Internet; the twin educational problems of cost inflation in higher education and poor secondary student performance; the consequences of environmental regulations and taxes that will make growth harder to achieve than a century ago; and the overhang of consumer and government debt. All of these problems were already evident in 2007, and it simplifies our thinking about long-run growth to pretend that the post-2007 crisis did not happen.”

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...six-headwinds/

and my (former) biz is the clearest most significant indicator of this -
with the 'front end' of the boomers being the primary customer demographic
(with the main headwind being... the.. uhhh... expiration date of that cohort - and if that aint killin it, its ZIRP)