So, wheres the Crash?

[Mega]

I know am a bit like the kid on the back seat of the car asking every 5 mins "Are we there yet".............but although i see trouble, i don't see the "Crash" i was proimsed.
Mega

[metalman]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

where's the promise of a crash by now? what's expiration date? my reading of ej is that one will come sooner or later but only fools wish for it.

[Mega]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

If it "HAS TO COME" than only a fool would stick his head in the ground and not wonder WHEN?
Mega

[c1ue]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

Mega,

We're in economic time now - meaning whatever time scale needed to fit the economist's theory :p

Seriously, it is too early to say the crash is here.

As I see it, we're still in the stage where Captain Edward John Smith of the Titanic is still assessing the damage and considering options like fothering.

From Wiki: (Boo Google)

Contents [hide] 1 10:45 PM - Iceberg warnings EJ Ka-Poom theory, 2001? 1998? 2 11:39 PM - "Iceberg, right ahead!" 2.1 Sighting of the Iceberg August credit crunch 2.2 Murdoch's orders Fed begins rate cuts with August discount rate cut. 2.3 The collision October 2007 - first of many months of rate resets 3 12:45 AM - First lifeboat lowered MLEC announced 10/15/2007 4 2:00 AM - Waterline reaches forward boat deck 5 2:05 AM - Propellers exposed 6 2:20 AM - Titanic founders 7 3:00 AM - Lifeboat rescues 8 4:10 AM - Carpathia picks up first lifeboat

I'd say we're roughly around the first lifeboat lowered stage. The most recent concerted liquidity action can be construed as another lifeboat being lowered.

(Dates and times not hypertext added by me!)

Only I don't foresee many lifeboats being rescued...unless they're banker boats!

[grapejelly]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

you can make the case that for now the market has discounted the credit crunch and real estate debacle.

And the market discounts this in the face of $500 billion in ECB short term liquidity and a Fed that is certain to print however much money is called for.

And, in addition, the US$ is rallying against other currencies.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

you can make the case that for now the market has discounted the credit crunch and real estate debacle.

And the market discounts this in the face of $500 billion in ECB short term liquidity and a Fed that is certain to print however much money is called for.

And, in addition, the US$ is rallying against other currencies.

I am not sure the markets have discounted the credit crunch or real estate debacle, when in my opinion know one really knows how big these problems are.

[grapejelly]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

I am not sure the markets have discounted the credit crunch or real estate debacle, when in my opinion know one really knows how big these problems are.

I think it has discounted it *for now*.

[WDCRob]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

I think it has discounted it *for now*.

I agree if you mean 'discounted' in the 'What, me worry?' sense of the word.

People have trouble digesting monstrously bad news until absolutely forced to do it.

[jk]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

we are going through the stages of mourning, the process by which we digest bad news:

1. denial - "the problems are only in subprime, and subprime is contained."
2. bargaining- "if only the fed gets ahead of the curve with a 50 bps cut, we'll be fine."

3. anger - we are seeing early signs of anger in the articles beginning to snipe at greenspan. e.g.
"Fed Shrugged as Subprime Crisis Spread"

sample: "But when Mr. Gramlich privately urged Fed examiners to investigate mortgage lenders affiliated with national banks, he was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/bu...4bc&ei=5087%0A

4. we are also in the early stages of depression [the emotional kind] with all those sad stories of people being thrown out into the streets.

much, much later:
acceptance

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

we are going through the stages of mourning, the process by which we digest bad news:

1. denial - "the problems are only in subprime, and subprime is contained."
2. bargaining- "if only the fed gets ahead of the curve with a 50 bps cut, we'll be fine."

3. anger - we are seeing early signs of anger in the articles beginning to snipe at greenspan. e.g.
"Fed Shrugged as Subprime Crisis Spread"

sample: "But when Mr. Gramlich privately urged Fed examiners to investigate mortgage lenders affiliated with national banks, he was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/bu...4bc&ei=5087%0A

4. we are also in the early stages of depression [the emotional kind] with all those sad stories of people being thrown out into the streets.

much, much later:
acceptance

jk, thanks for shrinking it down for us.

[Guest]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

Jim -

JK shrinks it down really well 'cause he's a "shrink".

Shrinks are the guys who deconstruct all of our irrational thoughts and actions professionally - he deconstructs the motivations beind aberrant thoughts like "I'm gonna sling a bucket of fresh cow turds all over the White House lawn and then I'll feel a whole lot better", which would be irrational as one would merely wind up getting hauled in by the White House security detail to explain the reason for one's actions.

The shrinks help us to deconstruct such urges in order to better understand why they are irrational and antisocial.

[Finster]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

...

Contents [hide] 1 10:45 PM - Iceberg warnings EJ Ka-Poom theory, 2001? 1998? 2 11:39 PM - "Iceberg, right ahead!" 2.1 Sighting of the Iceberg August credit crunch 2.2 Murdoch's orders Fed begins rate cuts with August discount rate cut. 2.3 The collision October 2007 - first of many months of rate resets 3 12:45 AM - First lifeboat lowered MLEC announced 10/15/2007 4 2:00 AM - Waterline reaches forward boat deck 5 2:05 AM - Propellers exposed 6 2:20 AM - Titanic founders 7 3:00 AM - Lifeboat rescues 8 4:10 AM - Carpathia picks up first lifeboat

I'd say we're roughly around the first lifeboat lowered stage. The most recent concerted liquidity action can be construed as another lifeboat being lowered.

...

we are going through the stages of mourning, the process by which we digest bad news:

1. denial - "the problems are only in subprime, and subprime is contained."
2. bargaining- "if only the fed gets ahead of the curve with a 50 bps cut, we'll be fine."

3. anger - we are seeing early signs of anger in the articles beginning to snipe at greenspan. e.g.
"Fed Shrugged as Subprime Crisis Spread"

sample: "But when Mr. Gramlich privately urged Fed examiners to investigate mortgage lenders affiliated with national banks, he was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/bu...4bc&ei=5087%0A

4. we are also in the early stages of depression [the emotional kind] with all those sad stories of people being thrown out into the streets.

much, much later:
acceptance

A rough precedent for timeline:

March-April 2000: The tech and telecom bubble starts to unravel

September 2001: Alaric sacks Rome

October-November 2001: Enron collapses

May-July 2002: Stock market crash

[jk]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

A rough precedent for timeline:

March-April 2000: The tech and telecom bubble starts to unravel

September 2001: Alaric sacks Rome

October-November 2001: Enron collapses

May-July 2002: Stock market crash

how did i miss that rome story?:p

[Finster]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

jk, thanks for shrinking it down for us.

From the link:

... The housing bubble, [Greenspan] said, had far less to do with the Fed’s policy on interest rates than on a global surplus in savings that drove down interest rates and pushed up housing prices in countries around the world.

What BS. He postulates a "surplus in savings" as if it were some supernatural entity that came from nowhere. But these overseas savers came into a lot money from somewhere - and it was none other than the surplus of money created by the Greenspan Fed.

It went to homeowners all over the country, who - naturally - spent it. But when a country creates a lot of money without new production to go with it, the production has to come from somewhere else. The money just goes where the production comes from.

Then what are those foreigners going to do with it? The US can't consume more than it produces unless somebody else produces more than they consume.

In a word, they saved. Listen closely Mr Greenspan:

You inflated. We spent. They saved.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So, wheres the Crash?

In a word, they saved. Listen closely Mr Greenspan:

You inflated. We spent. They saved.

Mr. Play-like Chairman,
That is two words: they saved. However, I really do like it when guys like you, Finster, and jk who seriously have rather profound understanding about a lot of topics that get discussed here finally put it down to the fewest, simplest words that even I have a hard time not understanding.

You done good, Finster.