Peak Expensive Oil

[porter]

Well, nobody here saw the collapse in oil prices that we are now faced with. Is it possible that this is the beginning of the end of OPEC itself? Has technology and human ingenuity once again solved the "running out of oil" problem (well, at least for our lifetimes)?

http://theweek.com/articles/540886/e...paign=facebook

[astonas]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Well, nobody here saw the collapse in oil prices that we are now faced with. Is it possible that this is the beginning of the end of OPEC itself? Has technology and human ingenuity once again solved the "running out of oil" problem (well, at least for our lifetimes)?

http://theweek.com/articles/540886/e...paign=facebook

I'm pretty sure GRG55 should get considerable credit for predicting exactly that. I recall a pretty specific bet, though the exact thread escapes my memory at the moment. I would highly recommend reading any of his many excellent posts on the subject.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

I'm pretty sure GRG55 should get considerable credit for predicting exactly that. I recall a pretty specific bet, though the exact thread escapes my memory at the moment. I would highly recommend reading any of his many excellent posts on the subject.

Aye. Almost a year ago GRG55 called it under $60 at the New Year.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

"Oil rigs signal bottom. Back to 90 -100 $ in 12 months." Pickens

[jpatter666]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

"Oil rigs signal bottom. Back to 90 -100 $ in 12 months." Pickens

Pickens is talking his book IMO.

[Master Shake]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Aye. Almost a year ago GRG55 called it under $60 at the New Year.

It wasn't EJ

Can the oil price fall below $80 in 2014?

Yes, if -- and only if -- the global economy collapses as much as it did in 2008.

Welcome to PCO.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

It wasn't EJ

Can the oil price fall below $80 in 2014?

Yes, if -- and only if -- the global economy collapses as much as it did in 2008.

Welcome to PCO.

however...

it remains to be seen if the economy ISNT collapsing - since they just keep printing to 'paper over the losses'

it really isnt some sort of abstraction - all the qe this n that, repo this n that - trillions upon trillions of it heaped upon 'the Public's' ledger alone?

what IS 'escape velocity' these daze, anyway?

sure as hell dont feel or look like it to a lot of US...

[aaron]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Well, nobody here saw the collapse in oil prices that we are now faced with. Is it possible that this is the beginning of the end of OPEC itself? Has technology and human ingenuity once again solved the "running out of oil" problem (well, at least for our lifetimes)?

As mentioned, there WAS somebody who saw the collapse
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...new-oil/page11

[gnk]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Predicting a price event is one thing, predicting the reason behind a price event is another.

I don't claim to know the answers, but I think geopolitics and financial speculation seem to me to be behind much of the oil price today.

Did anyone predict Russia's foray into Ukraine? Saudi Arabia's disdain for Russia's ME involvement, and Saudi Arabia's subsequent actions? The US and Saudi Arabia having similar views on Russia and Iran? The US deciding to run the oil spigots on full? (Actually EJ did with Fortress America) Or how about financial speculators riding momentum, as they did in 2008, but this time not long, but rather short on the oil price?

Did we really solve the energy problem or is this an outlier, caused by geopolitics?

Just looking at a price tells us nothing. It's a complex world, with many moving pieces. I think there's a lot more to it.

Who's being affected the hardest by the low oil price? Who benefits, relatively speaking? Coincidence?

[Master Shake]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

however...

it remains to be seen if the economy ISNT collapsing - since they just keep printing to 'paper over the losses'

it really isnt some sort of abstraction - all the qe this n that, repo this n that - trillions upon trillions of it heaped upon 'the Public's' ledger alone?

what IS 'escape velocity' these daze, anyway?

sure as hell dont feel or look like it to a lot of US...

That may be, but 2014 is over and oil fell below $80 and the economy didn't collapse.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

That may be, but 2014 is over and oil fell below $80 and the economy didn't collapse.

yet...
guess that depends on whether one considers the oil price a leading vs lagging indicator?
(subject to the speculator games of course...)

[BlackVoid]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Did anyone predict Russia's foray into Ukraine? Saudi Arabia's disdain for Russia's ME involvement, and Saudi Arabia's subsequent actions? The US and Saudi Arabia having similar views on Russia and Iran? The US deciding to run the oil spigots on full? (Actually EJ did with Fortress America)

It is the US foray into Ukraine. The coup was organized and paid for by the US. Russia is on the defensive here.

[gnk]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

Point taken, sort of... I see it as Russia is not on the defensive. Both the US and Russia are on the offensive, just in different ways.

Anyway, my point was that the oil price is being used as a weapon, and many of us are merely unintended beneficiaries, for the time being.

[jk]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

let's take whatever the most recent trend is and project it linearly into the indefinite future! i'm sure we can concoct a theory to fit.

[shiny!]

Re: Peak Expensive Oil

let's take whatever the most recent trend is and project it linearly into the indefinite future! i'm sure we can concoct a theory to fit.

jk, you are a treasure.