There goes Yemen.....

[jk]

Re: Map of arabia

One of the problems the US is facing with IS is that it is having a hard time both logistically and diplomatically assisting the Kurds.

The Kurds represent one stable force to counter IS, but everything given to Baghdad, including the slice of support specifically meant for the Kurds, mostly stays in Baghdad.

And the US has to balance its direct support for the Kurds against Iraqi sovereignty, Turkish security, and Iranian entanglement concerns.

i've begun to wonder about how u.s.-turkish relations are changing. yes, turkey remains a nato member, but it is less and less tied to the west- ergodan is concentrating power and i'm not sure that there will be free elections as long as ergodan [and possibly his successors] are in control. the turks have refused u.s. use of our big airfield there to support operations in the region. and they just signed a gas pipeline agreement with russia.

and in the short term do these changes make us more solicitous of turkish interests vis a vis the kurds, or less?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Map of arabia

i've begun to wonder about how u.s.-turkish relations are changing. yes, turkey remains a nato member, but it is less and less tied to the west- ergodan is concentrating power and i'm not sure that there will be free elections as long as ergodan [and possibly his successors] are in control. the turks have refused u.s. use of our big airfield there to support operations in the region. and they just signed a gas pipeline agreement with russia.

and in the short term do these changes make us more solicitous of turkish interests vis a vis the kurds, or less?

Turkey is a strange one.

It's had a pretty fast growing and diverse economy not reliant on natural resources for quite some time(although I think some have posted here that the economy might be quite fragile, they've done pretty well relative to much of the EU).

Rising GDP per capita.

Security/stability.

Yet it seems counterintuitive that Turkey(or is it just Turkey's leadership?) seems to be tracking away from secularism.

You would think that rising wealth(as long as it's not overly concentrated) would provide at least a light tailwind towards a liberal/progressive society.

Ergodan has stripped the Turkish military of their "right" to being the watchguard of a secular Turkey and it's "reboot" button.

Ataturk is being dismantled as the recognized leader of Turk forces in it's WWI victory(100th anniverary is upon us) with credit increasingly going to god, and the Turkish national beverage Raki(alcohol beverage, also called lion's milk) is being sidelined.

The EU(particularly Germany) seemed happy with using cheap Turkish labour in their home markets, but unwilling to let Turkey into the EU.

Maybe that was a blessing in disguise for Turkey?

The sense I get is that things are quite tense between Turkey and the US on a number of levels.

I think it's pretty tough on everyone.

It probably makes sense to support the Kurds for their own state someday as a foundation of local stability(as already seen). But that's going to drive both the Turks and the Iraqis nuts.

And while Turkey is still in the NATO orbit, I've often wondered if a Russia/Turkey energy distribution monopoly partnership would be in Turkey's best interest?

I know Turkey and Russia have a difficult past, but I wonder if $$$ and geopolitical power will trump it?

The two working together could represent a pretty powerful combination regarding energy coming out of Russia/Central Asia.

I've got a contact in the Turkish military(pretty progressive and secular guy helping me track down family history) and he doesn't seem TOO concerned, but he does acknowledge the big changes in recent years. It doesn't sound like the Turkish military will be playing a role in reversing the trend away from secularism.

There does seem to be some fast growing conservatism and high risk of radicalization in some poor/working class areas in Turkey.

Backing the Kurds for statehood someday seems like a smart bet, but I reckon Turkey needs to sign off on it, or at least tolerate it.

I was hoping to get to Turkey in 2015, but it doesn't look like it's in the cards, although I've got some colleagues heading there for a bit this year.

[Polish_Silver]

Why to visit Turkey

I found it "easy" to vacation in turkey. The general attitudes and way of doing things seemed to me very close to Europe or North America.

Women are working desk jobs. Our boat captain bragged that the country was supplying water to Israel. It seemed like you could go anywhere, do pretty much anything.

Not in Egypt, where we stayed inside the tourist bubble. Even the tour bus stopped at highway check points which had machine guns perched on sand bags. The hotel beach perimeter was patrolled by the "Antiquities and Tourism Police". I don't think you want to mess with those guys, and I did not go outside the protection they offered.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

I've heard from some friends in the region that Saudi(and possibly with a GCC coalition) are hitting Yemen pretty hard with airstrikes.

Not much in news yet...not too many western journalists in Yemen/Saudi.

We should be getting detailed news out of UAE/Oman soon I reckon.

[don]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Keep an eye on the LHD-7 Iwo Jima amphibious assault ship (which carries some 2,000 marines of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit), currently located just off the coast of Yemen.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

The Iwo Jima is probably there in case there is a need to provide the theatre commander with in-extremis options such as NEO(non-combatant evacuation operations) that consists of a flexible battalion sized force that can seize and hold ground in the littoral, as well as project deeper via rotary wing airlift.

The US presence in Yemen is officially non-existent. The US embassy was evacuated a while's back.

I wouldn't have a clue about NGOs, but suspect there would be some still operating.

With the long-term presence of US forces in Djibouti, which are capable of projecting into Yemen, I would think Iwo Jima is there to provide additional depth of regional force structure, additional "geopolitical presence", as well as the ability to stage directly off the Iwo Jima deeper into Yemen if aerial refueling capacity is limited.

[jk]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Egypt Says It May Send Troops to Yemen to Fight Houthis

CAIRO — Egypt said Thursday that it was prepared to send troops into Yemen as part of a Saudi-led campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi movement, signaling the possibility of a protracted ground war on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula.

A day after Saudi Arabia and a coalition of nine other states began hammering the Houthis with airstrikes and blockading the Yemeni coast, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt said in a statement that the country’s navy and air force would join the campaign. The Egyptian Army, the largest in the Arab world, was ready to send ground troops “if necessary,” Mr. Sisi said.




and so on...

the great sunni-shia struggle goes on. i had a laugh reading an article, i forget where, in which someone said that the sunnis and shias should just resolve their differences as much as possible and co-exist thereon. since their differences date to the 7th century, this did not seem to me to be a plausible suggestion.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Vietnam was often referred to as America's Yemen, based on Egyptian intervention in the early 1960's.

i wonder if Yemen will be referred to as Egypt's Afghanistan/Iraq?

The funny thing is the first Egyptian intervention in Yemen was opposed by Saudi paid mercenaries(British mostly with some Israeli facilitation).

Now Saudi paid mercenaries(mostly Pakistani) will be workng in coalition with Egypt against Iran and its proxies.

All I know is war isn't good for energy prices if Iran/Iraq war is anything to go by.

[jk]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

by "good for energy prices" i assume you mean bad for energy prices.

[don]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Saudi stocks plunging...


as foreign currency reserves drop by the most on record (in over 15 years)...


An almost $18bn plunge - the most ever - dragging foreign currency reserves back to the lowest in over 3 years...
and the very recent weakness in the Rial (as war began) suggests the picture will get worse...



Charts: Bloomberg

[don]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

[vt]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Let the proliferation begin:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10139229.html

This is the consequence of western powers caving in allowing a radical ruling group acquire a nuclear weapon. Once you let the genie out of the box you may get very bad results.

The Saudis have the ability to possibly obtain a nuke before the Iranians, because of their special relationship with Pakistan.

Israel will not stand still either.

[jk]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Let the proliferation begin:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10139229.html

This is the consequence of western powers caving in allowing a radical ruling group acquire a nuclear weapon. Once you let the genie out of the box you may get very bad results.

The Saudis have the ability to possibly obtain a nuke before the Iranians, because of their special relationship with Pakistan.

Israel will not stand still either.

you can't "let begin" something that has long been in progress. pakistan, iirc, got some nuclear tech from n. korea. i don't recall the western powers "allowing" n. korea to build its weapons, unless you want to say that anything short of declaring war on n. korea constituted "allowing." further, israel is widely assumed to ALREADY have a substantial nuclear arsenal. you can't begin what's already done. yes, iran would be further proliferation, as would a saudi bomb. it was in 1945 that the genie was released from the bottle [i think they come in bottles, or perhaps oil lamps, not in boxes to my knowledge.]

[FrankL]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

you can't "let begin" something that has long been in progress. pakistan, iirc, got some nuclear tech from n. korea. i don't recall the western powers "allowing" n. korea to build its weapons, unless you want to say that anything short of declaring war on n. korea constituted "allowing." further, israel is widely assumed to ALREADY have a substantial nuclear arsenal. you can't begin what's already done. yes, iran would be further proliferation, as would a saudi bomb. it was in 1945 that the genie was released from the bottle [i think they come in bottles, or perhaps oil lamps, not in boxes to my knowledge.]

Saudi Arabia is rumoured to have 'bought' bombs from Pakistan a long time ago.

Iran is not developing a bomb (according to what leaks out of US and Israeli intelligence services), but rather is developing dual-use technology in the nuclear field. This is not very reassuring, but not forbidden in any treaty (afaik).
And if we want to stop them through legal means, then what about South Korea and Japan, which are doing exactly the same (well South Korea at least until very recently)? There's no provision in any treaty that says 'dual use nuclear/icbm technology for may be developed only if the country is aligned with US interests'...

[don]

Re: Why to visit Turkey

Obama leashes the Saudi war dogs

Author: M.K. Bhadrakumar March 28, 2015

The international dimension to the conflict in Yemen has surged dramatically. This is not surprising because the fact of the matter is that the civil war in that country is entangled with global challenges and big-power relations, notwithstanding the simplistic perception that it is yet another manifestation of Saudi-Iranian rivalry. There is no denying that terrorist groups are operating in Yemen; Yemen is a strategically located country; Saudi Arabia’s security is affected; energy security could get disrupted; Shi’ite empowerment is a crucial template of regional stability; the impulses of the Arab Spring are far from exhausted.

President Barack Obama spoke with King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia on Friday and “emphasized the United States’ support” for the Saudi air attacks on Yemen. Obama “underscored” the US’ commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security. Thereupon, they agreed on “our collective goal” to steer Yemen through a “negotiated political solution facilitated by the United Nations and involving all parties as envisioned in the GCC Initiative” so as to achieve “lasting stability.”

The Saudi ambassador in Washington has also acknowledged that the US has been “very supportive” of the operation in Yemen not only politically but logistically as well and that Riyadh is “very pleased” with the level of military and intelligence coordination with the US. The National Security Council spokesperson separately confirmed in Washington that Obama has authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support for the Saudi-led military operations. Other reports mention that the US is establishing a Joint Planning Cell with Saudi Arabia and that the US Navy handled a rescue operation involving two Saudi pilots.

From the above, It is tempting to rush to a facile conclusion that Obama is leading from behind the Saudi operations in Yemen. But such a conclusion will be judgmental. The key expressions in the White House readout on Obama’s conversation with King Salman are: “lasting stability” and “a negotiated political solution”. The formulation suggests that Obama recognizes the imperative need of a power-sharing arrangement in Sana’a that would also accommodate the Houthi demand for an inclusive government. (The ousted president Hadi was a Saudi puppet for all purposes — something that the Houthis (and Iran) have militated against all along.)

It is important to note that Obama has advised King Salman at this early stage of the military intervention itself to go back to the drawing broad in New York which first worked out the transition in Sanaa three years ago, and to re-negotiate a political solution “facilitated by the United Nations and involving all parties.”

Simply put, the conclusion becomes unavoidable that while Obama has no option but to be seen openly holding the hands of King Salman, a key ally, the US would have serious misgivings about the efficacy of the military intervention achieving anything of lasting value. The Saudis, after all, have no known record in modern history of being great performers in wars and the Americans willy-nilly factor in that if and when the Saudi operations in Yemen fail, a direct US military intervention may become unavoidable, which means involvement in another Middle eastern war, which is something that Obama has refused to contemplate.

Most certainly, Washington would also see that the weakening of the Houthis at the present juncture can only shift the balance of forces in favor of the extremist Islamist groups affiliated with the al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Meanwhile, the standoffish stance taken by the European Union would also imply an early warning to the US from Brussels that it will essentially have to opt for a ‘coalition of the willing’ to carry forward any sustained military intervention in Yemen. In a clear-cut statement on Thursday, the EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has disapproved of military actions on the whole and has counseled that the aim should be to reach “a political consensus through negotiations” so that a “sustainable solution” becomes available. She specifically warned about the danger of extremist and terrorist groups taking advantage of the situation “dramatically”.

Mogherini also advised the regional actors to “act responsibly and constructively, to create as a matter of urgency the conditions for a return to negotiations”. She saw in particular a role for the UN and the regional actors (read Iran). On the whole, her remarks hint at a distancing from the precipitate Saudi operation.

Conceivably, Obama and Mogherini’s thinking converge. And that brings in the role of Russia and Iran. Of course, Moscow and Tehran have held consultations. President Vladimir Putin received a phone call on Thursday from his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani and has been reported as stressing “the urgency of an immediate cessation of hostilities and of stepping up efforts, including the UN, to develop options for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.”

Clearly, Moscow is reading the tea leaves correctly that US will turn to the UN Security Council shortly to open a political and diplomatic track and that Russia’s cooperation becomes vital. Moscow is positioning itself accordingly. On Friday, Putin took a meeting of Russia’s Security Council (Russia’s highest policymaking body) to discuss Yemen. Later, he also held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during which he “stressed the need to step up the international community’s efforts to reach a peaceful and long-term settlement of the situation in Yemen.”

In sum, what emerges is that the US, Russia and the EU have been in unison that an intra-Yemeni political solution negotiated through the good offices of the UN only can ensure lasting peace and stability.

This dominant thinking in the world capitals make it very difficult for the Saudis to push ahead with the military operations and expand them to a ground offensive. Interestingly, Riyadh has since advised Islamabad to postpone the visit by a high-level Pakistani delegation including military officials that was to have taken place on Friday. (See my blog Pakistan’s Yemeni War.) Sensing that the Saudis are having a rethink, Islamabad has also quickly re-calibrated its earlier enthusiasm to be part of the Saudi-led coalition. The latest mantra is,
“We [Pakistan] have made no decision to participate in this war. We didn’t make any promise. We have not promised any military support to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.” (Daily Times).

All in all, the Saudi operations in Yemen are lacking a sense of direction and may have to give way to the political and diplomatic track sooner than later. Iran will be pleased that the prospect of the Houthis being accommodated in Yemen’s power structure in Sana’a as a legitimate constituent party looks brighter than ever. If that happens, Shi’ite empowerment in the region gains further ground. Indeed, the suppressed Shi’ite communities in Bahrain (where Shi’ites are in majority) and other regional states in the Gulf, including even in Saudi Arabia, are watching closely the denouement in Yemen.

As the best-organized force in Yemen, the Houthis can afford to play the long game. Their winning trump card, in the ultimate analysis, is that they are the bulwark against the al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Yemen — and not the GCC states.

Asia Times