There goes Yemen.....

[lakedaemonian]

UK, France follow US, shut Yemen embassy

http://www.dw.de/uk-france-follow-us...ssy/a-18248962

I've read elsewhere the Italians have also shut down their embassy.

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There seems to be a bit of noise over US Marine Corps Embassy Guards and their embassy defense weapons being destroyed at the Embassy and their personal defense weapons being destroyed at the airport on their exfiltration.

While I wouldn't consider it a "non-story" it certainly gives some indication of the speed/pressure/severity of the environment in Sana'a Yemen during the final evacuation, even if conducted successfully in good order.

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I've described Yemen as a recent example of "special forces olympics" with the variety of countries involved in recent years, including:

USS
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Pakistan
Morocco

aligned against Iran

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The Houthi who have taken control are Shia, allegedly and likely backed by Iran, make up approx 35-45% of the population.

An Iranian backed Houthi Yemen has strong potential to provide entry into Saudi Arabia proper in terms of the Saudi/Iran increasingly warm cold war.

But there seems to be counter protests forming, whether they are legitimate(Sunni majority) or prompted by external actors is unknown.

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But I would think if Yemen's history is anything to go by, it is far from being a rock of stability.

In fact it has historically been one of the most unstable regional countries since the Egyptian invasion in the 1960's.

It's not receiving much press, in light of other crisis, but I reckon it's worthy.

If Yemen descends into civil war at worst or at best develops bigger pockets of ungoverned space, then the likes of IS or others using them as a staging ground to facilitate the ultimate downfall of the House of Saud is becoming more real by the day.

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One thing of note, is that the Houthi have recently been using civil disobedience protest tactics to achieve their goals.

Some friends and I have been debating the rise of a MLK, Gandhi, Mandela like figure or movement using peaceful-ish non-kinetic leverage.

I'd be interested to know what GRG55 thinks/knows of Yemen

[makimanos]

Re: There goes Yemen.....

Saudis are cornered. Expect a response soon. The gates are open.

[Woodsman]

Re: There goes Yemen.....

There goes my Sunday afternoon...

The Bitter Lake of the title refers to an actual saltwater lake through which the Suez canal flows, and presumably also to what you would find inside Adam Curtis’s head if you were to cut it open. In 1945 President Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia (whose son Abdullah died last week, to be replaced by yet another son, Salman) on board a warship on the Great Bitter Lake. It was a meeting that would have extraordinary, far-reaching and unintended consequences, for the west, for the world.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: There goes Yemen.....

Saudis are cornered. Expect a response soon. The gates are open.

The Saudis attempted to contain the spillover into Saudi territory of the Houthi and previous Yemen government fight.

They did a pretty poor job, resulting in some embarrassing results that required the Saudi to be bailed out by Jordanian, Moroccan, and Pakistani forces doing the heavy lifting.

I've heard the Saudis are taking recent events quite seriously.

In order to mitigate infiltration of ISIS and/or Iranian proxies into Saudi proper approximately 1/3 of the Saudi National Guard are supposedly deployed to cover the infiltration routes.

The Saudi National Guard are unlike the US National Guard in the respect that the SNG are the most trusted forces(as well as trained/equipped) in Saudi with the primary role of regime continuity in case of insurrection.

If I had to guess, it would be that Yemen becomes a base for Iranian proxies arrayed against Saudi and/or Yemen descends into Civil War with the Houthi minority under pressure from Sunni majority creating ungoverned spaces from which networks like ISIS can fester.

Lose/Lose for Saudi royal family I would think.

[shiny!]

Re: There goes Yemen.....

The Saudis attempted to contain the spillover into Saudi territory of the Houthi and previous Yemen government fight.

They did a pretty poor job, resulting in some embarrassing results that required the Saudi to be bailed out by Jordanian, Moroccan, and Pakistani forces doing the heavy lifting.

I've heard the Saudis are taking recent events quite seriously.

In order to mitigate infiltration of ISIS and/or Iranian proxies into Saudi proper approximately 1/3 of the Saudi National Guard are supposedly deployed to cover the infiltration routes.

The Saudi National Guard are unlike the US National Guard in the respect that the SNG are the most trusted forces(as well as trained/equipped) in Saudi with the primary role of regime continuity in case of insurrection.

If I had to guess, it would be that Yemen becomes a base for Iranian proxies arrayed against Saudi and/or Yemen descends into Civil War with the Houthi minority under pressure from Sunni majority creating ungoverned spaces from which networks like ISIS can fester.

Lose/Lose for Saudi royal family I would think.

And for the peasants who just want to earn a living and see their kids grow up.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: There goes Yemen.....

And for the peasants who just want to earn a living and see their kids grow up.

Shiny!

Unfortunately, peasants don't factor into the empathy equation.

Countries can't empathize, as they aren't beings in anything but the legal sense.

Individuals(outside of exceptions) can't easily empathize in any substantial way, unless there is some form of proximity.

Physical, cultural, ethno-linguistic, economic, etc.

I doubt many in the west possess much personal proximity to the people of Yemen.

It took a massive marketing & advertising push by brand name entertainers for even a temporary sense of empathy for the people of Ethiopia in the mid 1980's.

The same for a generation prior with Biafra and Bangladesh.

Even Haiti, and it's reasonable physical proximity dropped off the radar fairly quickly, bar the odd followup story on donation and UN mismanagement, despite the hard work and sacrifice of many.

Their tribe doesn't look or sound like our tribe...so we typically don't care.

From a clinical/Machiavellian standpoint:

1000 Saudi royals executed and power seized over the world's largest single supply of light/sweet energy currency that runs the planet has far closer proximity than 1,000,000 slaughtered Yemeni people that most on the planet wouldn't ever even become aware of.

It's all about proximity.

Just my 0.02c

[Polish_Silver]

The limits of empathy

Shiny!

Unfortunately, peasants don't factor into the empathy equation.

Countries can't empathize, as they aren't beings in anything but the legal sense.

Individuals(outside of exceptions) can't easily empathize in any substantial way, unless there is some form of proximity.

Physical, cultural, ethno-linguistic, economic, etc.

I doubt many in the west possess much personal proximity to the people of Yemen.

. . .

Their tribe doesn't look or sound like our tribe...so we typically don't care.

From a clinical/Machiavellian standpoint:

1000 Saudi royals executed and power seized over the world's largest single supply of light/sweet energy currency that runs the planet has far closer proximity than 1,000,000 slaughtered Yemeni people that most on the planet wouldn't ever even become aware of.

It's all about proximity.

Just my 0.02c

LD, I think you totally nailed the problem.

People will obsess about animal rights or lost dogs when that same money would alleviate the suffering of far greater numbers of people. Our emotions evolved in close knit groups of 30-150 hunter gatherers, and our empathy is still limited by that evolutionary history. The religions of the world try to expand it, not very successfully. Likewise for utopian political movements striving for "class consciousness".

I am wondering if there will be calls for US military involvement? I surely hope not.

[lektrode]

Re: The limits of empathy

..... wondering if there will be calls for US military involvement? I surely hope not.

noted at 0C this AM:
More than 4,000 troops will be deployed to Kuwait, possibly to fight Islamic State

FORT CARSON, Colo., Feb. 15 (UPI) -- A brigade of more than 4,000 soldiers from Fort Carson, Colo., will be deployed to Kuwait to create the largest U.S. ground force currently in the Middle East. The Fort Carson soldiers could be the first into battle if a major combat force is used to fight the Islamic State, according to The Gazette.
The brigade equipped with tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles has been training for more than a year and many of the soldiers are veterans of the Iraq war.
"We're no strangers to deployment," Col. Greg Sierra, the brigade's commander, said at a farewell ceremony. "We are absolutely ready for this mission."
Sierra said the soldiers received training for humanitarian relief missions and for constant combat.
"We are prepared for any contingency," he said.
The deployment follows U.S. President Barack Obama's announcement that he has formally asked Congress for permission to engage military forces against the Islamic State.
Obama said the Authorization to Use Military Force draft bill he sent Congress would not "call for the deployment of U.S. ground combat forces to Iraq or Syria."


"It is not the authorization of another ground war like Afghanistan or Iraq," he said.

uh huh...

and a comment from the actual link on 0C:

In other words, Obama is channeling his inner Bush because his strategy of a half-assed approach to dealing with radical Islam by fraternizing with them and inviting them to the White House for tea is not working. Too bad this administration’s mistakes will result in more American military deaths with no strategy or purpose beyond keeping this asshole’s “legacy” intact.
It would be nice it the President might engage in something else he hasn’t done since coming into office:
Like actually going to a funeral for one of the men or women in our military that he sent off to war and die for his incompetence.

and sure looks like the egyptians arent waiting for the cavalry to show up (either):

Egypt Conducts Airstrikes on Islamic State Targets in Libya

[GRG55]

Re: The limits of empathy

noted at 0C this AM:
More than 4,000 troops will be deployed to Kuwait, possibly to fight Islamic State



uh huh...

"...possibly to fight Islamic State"?

Alternatively, he might be sending them in to ensure everyone else stays off their high horse lest there be a repeat of the Crusades or the Inquisition?

[Polish_Silver]

Map of arabia

"...possibly to fight Islamic State"?

Alternatively, he might be sending them in to ensure everyone else stays off their high horse lest there be a repeat of the Crusades or the Inquisition?

Here's my map of Arabia.

Within the peninsula, Kuwait is as far from Yemen as you can get.
But perhaps that is the closest that US troops can be stationed without igniting the oil drum.

Or is it more about proximity to Iraq/Syria?


Where was the article saying that oil was irrelevant, the world has so much of it, and there were so many alternative energy sources? There have always been alternatives for the power grid. But for transportation, only trains and their midget cousins, street cars, have been successfully electrified.

[lektrode]

Re: Map of arabia

.....the article saying that oil was irrelevant, the world has so much of it, and there were so many alternative energy sources? There have always been alternatives for the power grid. But for transportation, only trains and their midget cousins, street cars, have been successfully electrified.

had the luddite brigade that shutdown construction of the seabrook nuke plant (NH) not been 'so successful' in the '70s?

we might've had the highways all choked-up with electric cars by now ...
not to mention avoided acid rain, global climate/warming/change, acidification of the oceans... never mind provide the funding of the islamic whacko brigade...

oh... and yeah...
dont forget ENDLESS WAR OVER OIL WITH ENDLESS TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS
to pay for it all

something the 'anything but nuke power' nutjobs would just as soon The Rest of US forget about.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The limits of empathy

LD, I think you totally nailed the problem.

People will obsess about animal rights or lost dogs when that same money would alleviate the suffering of far greater numbers of people. Our emotions evolved in close knit groups of 30-150 hunter gatherers, and our empathy is still limited by that evolutionary history. The religions of the world try to expand it, not very successfully. Likewise for utopian political movements striving for "class consciousness".

I am wondering if there will be calls for US military involvement? I surely hope not.

Too late.

The US has been deeply(and not exactly quietly) involved with Yemen for quite a few years.

To what extend? Dozens/hundreds of personnel in/out over time?

And the US has been well established in Djibouti on the African Horn for well over a decade to strike into Somalia, Yemen, elsewhere.

The first known drone strike was conducted in Yemen back in 2002.

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50+ years of on/off violence and war in Yemen:

1962 Civil War

North supported by Saudi, Jordan, Israel, and UK...mostly conducted with UK advisors, Saudi money, and Israeli arms(to tie down Egypt).

The South was supported by Egypt.....creating Egypt's "Vietnam"...some called the US in Vietnam, "The US Yemen".

Yemen officially broke into two states. The South supported by the Soviet/Communist Block.

Both states fought each other in a war again around 1972. With additional fighting around 1980 with some unrest in the 1980's.

Unification occurred around 1990, with more civil war following in the mid 1990's.

USS Cole attacked while in port in Yemen in 2000.

Shia insurgency has been underway since about 2005.

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I reckon Yemen falls around a 7-8 on the 0-to-10 Somali Scale of Instability with 25-30 million people...nearly as many as in Saudi Arabia.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Map of arabia

Here's my map of Arabia.

Within the peninsula, Kuwait is as far from Yemen as you can get.
But perhaps that is the closest that US troops can be stationed without igniting the oil drum.

Or is it more about proximity to Iraq/Syria?

Kuwait has been an open, but somewhat quiet-ish logistics hub for US forces for all things Iraq.

One of the problems the US is facing with IS is that it is having a hard time both logistically and diplomatically assisting the Kurds.

The Kurds represent one stable force to counter IS, but everything given to Baghdad, including the slice of support specifically meant for the Kurds, mostly stays in Baghdad.

And the US has to balance its direct support for the Kurds against Iraqi sovereignty, Turkish security, and Iranian entanglement concerns.

Jordan is another major parter and hub....but can be expensive to stage directly into.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The limits of empathy

noted at 0C this AM:
More than 4,000 troops will be deployed to Kuwait, possibly to fight Islamic State

The troops the US are deploying are from Fort Carson, Colorado.

FT Carson is where the US Army 4th Division is based as well as 10th Special Forces Group.

The 4th Division suffered circa 10% of total US fatalities in Iraq since 2003 and while it also deployed to Afghanistan, is probably the most "Iraq experienced" major conventional army unit.

The 10th Special Forces Group was also the lead "white" SF unit in support of the Kurds in 1991 post Desert Storm to prevent the Kurds from being slaughtered by Saddam Hussein as well as the lead "white" SF unit in Northern Iraq in the lead up to the 2003 invasion.

It doesn't state whether the 10th SF Group is incorporated into that 4000. To be honest, they are probably already in Iraq/Kurdistan, but it could allow larger numbers of them to move with some discretion into Iraq.

So you have your most "Iraq experienced" conventional(and possibly SF reinforcements) unit heading to Kuwait.

It's not so much the "how many", but the "who and where from" that provides a pretty strong indicator of US intent to act, or at least the option or threat to act.

Since it's not directed at a sovereign state, I'd say it's far less likely to be a threat and more likely to lead to action.

If I had to guess, I would guess the US might deploy combat troops in Iraq in mobile hunter/killer task forces to attrit IS forces from large scale/open country operations down to much smaller subunit numbers with less freedom of movement. Then "declare victory" and exit.

[makimanos]

Re: The limits of empathy

2015 is a different story. There is no possibility the Northwest to leave Yemen and the Red Sea under control of the Iran-Russia-China axis.Too many unstable countries with poor populations who have nothing to loose. Maybe a solution is smaller controlable states. But there is always a German factor. Look at Greece. Again the master plans aren't working.Everything is changing fast. The class of Northwest vs Southeast is well underway.