Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

[verdo]

Eric was a bit early on this in his last commentary (btw, does anyone know when his next one is coming out?), but it seems like Tesla has been doing quite poorly lately. What are your opinions on the recent developments? They went down almost 6% today, and the stock is apparently down 23% over the last 6 months

Tesla's staggering surprise slams stock

[Woodsman]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Eric was a bit early on this in his last commentary (btw, does anyone know when his next one is coming out?)...

Great question. We had strong hints of an "upcoming article" and possibly an extensive site redesign late last year, I believe, but nothing to date. It's nearly the middle of February and no year end review and 2015 forecast. I admit to being disappointed and can only assume there must be bigger fish to fry. I'm looking forward to renewing my Select membership, yet it's hard to find a compelling reason.

The ship seems rudderless back here in steerage. Just one man's perception, of course. Still, it would be nice to see something actionable.

[santafe2]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Eric was a bit early on this in his last commentary (btw, does anyone know when his next one is coming out?), but it seems like Tesla has been doing quite poorly lately. What are your opinions on the recent developments? They went down almost 6% today, and the stock is apparently down 23% over the last 6 months

Tesla's staggering surprise slams stock

verdo it's important that we not conflate the idea that Tesla investors at these levels are very unlikely to be happy with their long term results and any end in sight for Tesla the company. They still have a few tricks up their sleeve and the Model X release should continue to mask falling US sales for the Model S. Then just about the time everyone realizes this is a tiny niche market, Tesla will release the Model III. They are moving through their cash more quickly than investors would like for sure and their profit in Q4 turned into a loss but the company still has absolutely stupid valuation when compared to any financial metric. The true believers are not yet discouraged. Market cap is still $26.7B or about $750,000 for every vehicle produced last year.

The problem so far appears to not be so much a Tesla problem but an electric vehicle market problem. They have a fine vehicle for a select few. They still have a decent backlog of orders but it's really not clear if they can sustain this backlog with other high end manufacturers coming into the market and several lower end manufacturers coming to market with Model III killers before the Model III is available. Then add to those competitive issues the ultimate competitor, oil. If it stays in the $50-$70 range for a few years, it's going to be very difficult to build an all electric car market.

[don]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

They have a fine vehicle for a select few.

Well put.

[BK]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Is Elon Musk the Ken Lay of Enron or David Wetherall of CMGi or our times.

Market Cap = $25 Bill - total cars sold approximately 70,000 Model S + 2600 Roadsters

Back in the late 1990s Ken Lay was called the Messiah.

Tax credits accounted for $100-$200 Million of Tesla revenue.

Toyota or Nissan or Audi could build a Tesla - but it is financially not viable product. None of the big companies are going to invest $Billions for a car that will sell so poorly.

[metalman]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Great question. We had strong hints of an "upcoming article" and possibly an extensive site redesign late last year, I believe, but nothing to date. It's nearly the middle of February and no year end review and 2015 forecast. I admit to being disappointed and can only assume there must be bigger fish to fry. I'm looking forward to renewing my Select membership, yet it's hard to find a compelling reason.

The ship seems rudderless back here in steerage. Just one man's perception, of course. Still, it would be nice to see something actionable.

haha! ironic... over here ej says it's all your fault, woody... started a co. to make a product to do with oculus rift. raising $$$. no mention of what do with us little folks... nice going

[Woodsman]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

haha! ironic... over here ej says it's all your fault, woody... started a co. to make a product to do with oculus rift. raising $$$. no mention of what do with us little folks... nice going

Hey, that's great news! Now I'm getting it. Between you me and the Internet, a little birdie did sing a song in my ear about the OR for some cool stuff a while back and I'm pleased to hear going forward!

Thanks for the link, but I'm still in steerage and can't get on the lido deck. Sux for us, but all good things must end. Better that they end while they're still good.

[verdo]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Great question. We had strong hints of an "upcoming article" and possibly an extensive site redesign late last year, I believe, but nothing to date. It's nearly the middle of February and no year end review and 2015 forecast. I admit to being disappointed and can only assume there must be bigger fish to fry. I'm looking forward to renewing my Select membership, yet it's hard to find a compelling reason.

The ship seems rudderless back here in steerage. Just one man's perception, of course. Still, it would be nice to see something actionable.

Yeah i pretty much only subscribe when an interesting article comes out, but the main reason for that is due to the fact that I'm still a student and I've gotta dig deep into my pockets to pay for things like this. But I'd much rather be paying for a continual membership, because he shares quite a bit behind the scenes in the form of normal posts

verdo it's important that we not conflate the idea that Tesla investors at these levels are very unlikely to be happy with their long term results and any end in sight for Tesla the company. They still have a few tricks up their sleeve and the Model X release should continue to mask falling US sales for the Model S. Then just about the time everyone realizes this is a tiny niche market, Tesla will release the Model III. They are moving through their cash more quickly than investors would like for sure and their profit in Q4 turned into a loss but the company still has absolutely stupid valuation when compared to any financial metric. The true believers are not yet discouraged. Market cap is still $26.7B or about $750,000 for every vehicle produced last year.

The problem so far appears to not be so much a Tesla problem but an electric vehicle market problem. They have a fine vehicle for a select few. They still have a decent backlog of orders but it's really not clear if they can sustain this backlog with other high end manufacturers coming into the market and several lower end manufacturers coming to market with Model III killers before the Model III is available. Then add to those competitive issues the ultimate competitor, oil. If it stays in the $50-$70 range for a few years, it's going to be very difficult to build an all electric car market.

I'm sure Elon still has some tricks to pull, but I really think time is running out for him, especially with oil where its at now as you say. His only saving grace this whole time was the fact that he's been targeting the high end market, but even they get bored eventually, and move on to the new coolest toy. Don't get me wrong...i think the car is pretty nice, but the stock should be way lower..

[EJ]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Hey, that's great news! Now I'm getting it. Between you me and the Internet, a little birdie did sing a song in my ear about the OR for some cool stuff a while back and I'm pleased to hear going forward!

Thanks for the link, but I'm still in steerage and can't get on the lido deck. Sux for us, but all good things must end. Better that they end while they're still good.

It's an end of the last stage and a beginning of the next stage.

Members need to recall that the site was originally started when I was running Osborn Capital in the 1990s and I continued to update it when I was CEO of a VC-backed company with 90 employees and a 7-man board 2001 - 2005 before re-launching in 2006. There are members here who post frequently who are in similarly engaging roles. The reality is that the extra-curricular activity helps keep us sane, and the curricular activity informs the opinion. So long as investors don't mind me continuing to update the new site I think it will be more like before when I could cast in a wide net over the world from a contacts standpoint to enrich the source of viewpoints. This new project promises to take all of us on a journey that will inform opinion about the economy and markets far better than yet another conversation with yet another Fed mouthpiece.

As you can tell, I'm excited about it.

[verdo]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

It's an end of the last stage and a beginning of the next stage.

Members need to recall that the site was originally started when I was running Osborn Capital in the 1990s and I continued to update it when I was CEO of a VC-backed company with 90 employees and a 7-man board 2001 - 2005 before re-launching in 2006. There are members here who post frequently who are in similarly engaging roles. The reality is that the extra-curricular activity helps keep us sane, and the curricular activity informs the opinion. So long as investors don't mind me continuing to update the new site I think it will be more like before when I could cast in a wide net over the world from a contacts standpoint to enrich the source of viewpoints. This new project promises to take all of us on a journey that will inform opinion about the economy and markets far better than yet another conversation with yet another Fed mouthpiece.

As you can tell, I'm excited about it.

I'm excited too. I must say though, the appeal of the site as it is is the simple, non-in your face nature of it. Like da Vinci, I believe simplicity is the ultimate form of sophistication. Hopefully the new site keeps some of this theme alive

[Woodsman]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

It's an end of the last stage and a beginning of the next stage.

Members need to recall that the site was originally started when I was running Osborn Capital in the 1990s and I continued to update it when I was CEO of a VC-backed company with 90 employees and a 7-man board 2001 - 2005 before re-launching in 2006. There are members here who post frequently who are in similarly engaging roles. The reality is that the extra-curricular activity helps keep us sane, and the curricular activity informs the opinion. So long as investors don't mind me continuing to update the new site I think it will be more like before when I could cast in a wide net over the world from a contacts standpoint to enrich the source of viewpoints. This new project promises to take all of us on a journey that will inform opinion about the economy and markets far better than yet another conversation with yet another Fed mouthpiece.

As you can tell, I'm excited about it.

Well, it's great news EJ. Clearly you apprehend what a game changer VR is and knowing someone of your caliber is moving the ball forward means good things for everyone. Congratulations, friend.

[EJ]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Well, it's great news EJ. Clearly you apprehend what a game changer VR is and knowing someone of your caliber is moving the ball forward means good things for everyone. Congratulations, friend.

No question your December 2013 Ask EJ started it all. It resurrected a 20-year-old idea of mine and caused me to propose it to a friend over breakfast last spring.

He is a world-class game architect and robotics engineer -- Virginia Tech undergrad and MIT grad with several 10M game titles to his name. He helped me overcome my skepticism re Oculus.

The project calls from me not only all of my 30 years' of operations expertise as a coder, product manager, sales exec, CEO and corp. finance guy but a childhood spent in the basement with Dad building electrostatic loudspeaker prototypes, a legacy my brother carries on with speakers that are 10x better than our Dad's.

For my friend it is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to call in his loyal posse of artists, designers, coders, robotics experts and assorted eccentric and creative geniuses to follow his lead.

This project goes to the soul of the founders.

I believe that the technology market timing, the team, and the right source of funding will deliver an utterly epic result.

[Down Under]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

For my friend it is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to call in his loyal posse of artists, designers, coders, robotics experts and assorted eccentric and creative geniuses to follow his lead.

This project goes to the soul of the founders.

I believe that the technology market timing, the team, and the right source of funding will deliver an utterly epic result.

EJ, a very quick question if you don't mind. What do you see as the minimum investment required? Peter

[Mega]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

Ah.................that explains WHY you been so busy ..............

[Chomsky]

Re: Is this the beginning of the end for Tesla?

It's an end of the last stage and a beginning of the next stage.

Members need to recall that the site was originally started when I was running Osborn Capital in the 1990s and I continued to update it when I was CEO of a VC-backed company with 90 employees and a 7-man board 2001 - 2005 before re-launching in 2006. There are members here who post frequently who are in similarly engaging roles. The reality is that the extra-curricular activity helps keep us sane, and the curricular activity informs the opinion. So long as investors don't mind me continuing to update the new site I think it will be more like before when I could cast in a wide net over the world from a contacts standpoint to enrich the source of viewpoints. This new project promises to take all of us on a journey that will inform opinion about the economy and markets far better than yet another conversation with yet another Fed mouthpiece.

As you can tell, I'm excited about it.

This post is now 9 months old. Is there any update on the "new site" ?