gold under-priced by $400

[Nicolasd]

interesting read==> see link


http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/12_2007_ID_Comparison%20shows%20gold%20underpriced %20by%20US$400.pdf

:eek:

[jk]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

that link won't work.

http://www.sprott.com/marketoutlook/investorsdigest.php
gives you a list of articles, including the one you mention.

[Spartacus]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsd... by US$400.pdf

interesting read==> see link


http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/12_2007_ID_Comparison%20shows%20gold%20underpriced %20by%20US$400.pdf

:eek:

[Nicolasd]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

Hello JK and thanks for the help -- Never suceeded in pasting links with 100% success rate yet....

Hope this will be of some interest

Nicolas

[Guest]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

Jack Crooks warns global credit markets could be setting up for his "least likely" scenario, "global credit crunch metastasizes" which could lead (irrationally, but nonetheless) to a serious run into the dollar - for a little while.

He's not warning that it's likely, only that the odds just increased sharply.

Gold may be severely undervalued, and the smart money should climb into it's intended allocation of gold, but that may not prevent the currency markets from doling out an irrational "curve ball" in the form of a banking crisis incurred at the periphery which results in a run "in to" the USD for a few months. Go figure.

Maybe the best play is to wait for the serious swoon in GOLD as the lemmings pile into the USD, and then load up in the yellow metal for the "return to relevance of the fundamentals". Silver is a tough call in this scenario. Underweight? Hold? Who knows? Requires a bit of devotion.

Between Jack Crooks and Sprott, I'll bank with Sprott - their firm take the longer view. While Crooks by no means misses fundamentals, he is more the tactician.

[Nicolasd]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

I agree that Sprott takes the macro view in their decision making process.

Most interesting is the inference about gold price manipulation which buys time for an 'orderly' liquidation or re-configuration of paper assets.




As far as devotion , it

[Finster]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

Jack Crooks warns global credit markets could be setting up for his "least likely" scenario, "global credit crunch metastasizes" which could lead (irrationally, but nonetheless) to a serious run into the dollar - for a little while.

He's not warning that it's likely, only that the odds just increased sharply.

Gold may be severely undervalued, and the smart money should climb into it's intended allocation of gold, but that may not prevent the currency markets from doling out an irrational "curve ball" in the form of a banking crisis incurred at the periphery which results in a run "in to" the USD for a few months. Go figure.

Maybe the best play is to wait for the serious swoon in GOLD as the lemmings pile into the USD, and then load up in the yellow metal for the "return to relevance of the fundamentals". Silver is a tough call in this scenario. Underweight? Hold? Who knows? Requires a bit of devotion.

Between Jack Crooks and Sprott, I'll bank with Sprott - their firm take the longer view. While Crooks by no means misses fundamentals, he is more the tactician.

Your short-run scenario may be easier to believe if you consider that this mass of debt represents a short position in dollars. If I owe $400K on my house, I am long 1 house and short $400K. (Not to mention my lenders.) If I am an average American debtor, I sent a hefty chunk of that $400K to China. Now China has a lot of USD and is competing with what scarce USD I have left for oil and other commodities. So the USD are still out there, it's just that we don't have them any more. So there is tremendous demand for dollars here; a deflationary force.

The longer run scenario comes in when you consider the policy response to the western dollar shortage. Inflate. Create still more dollars to ease the short squeeze. This new torrent of dollars cascades forth and adds to the mass of dollars already out there overseas. With the global inflationary dollar surplus no longer balanced by a deflationary domestic dollar shortage, all you have left is dollar surplus and a dollar swooning anew.

So it's not totally irrational for dollars to temporarily appreciate, despite the longer run fundamentals. But how long that lasts is an open question. If I were a nimble timer, I might try to finesse it, but since I'm not, I want to have a healthy allocation to hard money now.

[FRED]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

Jack Crooks warns global credit markets could be setting up for his "least likely" scenario, "global credit crunch metastasizes" which could lead (irrationally, but nonetheless) to a serious run into the dollar - for a little while.

He's not warning that it's likely, only that the odds just increased sharply.

Gold may be severely undervalued, and the smart money should climb into it's intended allocation of gold, but that may not prevent the currency markets from doling out an irrational "curve ball" in the form of a banking crisis incurred at the periphery which results in a run "in to" the USD for a few months. Go figure.

Maybe the best play is to wait for the serious swoon in GOLD as the lemmings pile into the USD, and then load up in the yellow metal for the "return to relevance of the fundamentals". Silver is a tough call in this scenario. Underweight? Hold? Who knows? Requires a bit of devotion.

Between Jack Crooks and Sprott, I'll bank with Sprott - their firm take the longer view. While Crooks by no means misses fundamentals, he is more the tactician.

Crooks has a good macro head on, too. We used to offer Crook's services through Sovereign Society but they became a channel for the service themselves and could not longer offer it to us (or anyone) as a 3rd party.

We are working on a new deal with Crooks' new publisher. We're curious to know how folks are liking it. Most of the feedback we've gotten has been positive.

[Guest]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

FRED -

My subscription is too new for me to say anything about Crooks - he seems very capable, but I don't know much else. I like his currencies as a corollary to PM's / commodities because he's nimble and Forex is uncorrelated to equities, which (I suppose irrationally) give me the serious heeby-jeeby willies these days.

[jk]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

Crooks has a good macro head on, too. We used to offer Crook's services through Sovereign Society but they became a channel for the service themselves and could not longer offer it to us (or anyone) as a 3rd party.

We are working on a new deal with Crooks' new publisher. We're curious to know how folks are liking it. Most of the feedback we've gotten has been positive.

i subscribed to "crooks on currencies" - after a few issues it disappeared and instead i was given a subscription to the sovereign society's newsletter- which is junk and just touts other, more expensive, services. i'm an unhappy subscriber and won't subscribe to any new crooks service.

[metalman]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

i subscribed to "crooks on currencies" - after a few issues it disappeared and instead i was given a subscription to the sovereign society's newsletter- which is junk and just touts other, more expensive, services. i'm an unhappy subscriber and won't subscribe to any new crooks service.

i'd demand my money back or the service i paid for. did you not get a response from them? did you go to itulip? any time i've ever had any issues they've been responsive and took care of it.

[FRED]

Re: gold under-priced by $400

i subscribed to "crooks on currencies" - after a few issues it disappeared and instead i was given a subscription to the sovereign society's newsletter- which is junk and just touts other, more expensive, services. i'm an unhappy subscriber and won't subscribe to any new crooks service.

Sorry to hear you had difficulties. We have only had two complaints since we started to offer the service, and cleared those up quickly, and many positive comments. Don't be shy!