Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

[Woodsman]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

I appreciate your anecdotes and individual point of view. What brought you to Greece? Have you been there long? It's not clear to me if you still reside and work there?

[don]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

"your only viable play is to threaten to go Icelandic on the Troika’s Medieval ass . . ."

Dear Yanis,

As an ardent admirer, with the utmost respect for what you have put forward and accomplished to date, I humbly offer my thoughts for your consideration.

In my measured estimation, requesting substantive forbearance from the TROIKA on a purely rational and fair minded basis, as you have suggested, in the anticipation of a desirable outcome, is likely a proposition which will disappoint. There obviously exist significant and powerful vested financial interests adamantly opposed to you on the other side of the table, not to mention the even more considerable, and now intensifying, European periphery precedent concerns which are clearly raising the ante.

Your adversaries’ obtuse position continues to remain implacable for the most determined of self-seeking reasons, and the collateral damage that is Greece, obviously matters far less to them then the well defined and established course they have set for themselves. Remember, they have not done the right thing previously, they don’t do the right thing presently, and thus, will likely not do the right thing in the future given the opportunity. Don’t kid yourself, these adversaries are just that, and lethal opponents.

Considering they were able to stomach the desolation Greece has so desperately endured throughout this period, there should be little to no expectation that they will now suddenly magnanimously change their stripes, simply because it’s been determined by newly elected, more reasoned and humane men, that it’s the right and sound thing to do.

Having accepted that reality, almost certainly, zero sum game theory shall be called for. Therefore, in my view, it would be critical that your Ministry of Finance promptly establish an official and entirely credible, thoroughly planned, monetary regime/reset exit program, so as to be perfectly positioned to exercise and execute a realpolitik monetary policy option/bluff, should the ensuing situation which develops call for it.

Make no mistake, Greece must have on the table a true, legitimate and authoritative default & national currency alternative, which the other side is firmly but calmly made to fully appreciate and understand, if not outright fear, even if your first choice is to actually avoid going down that extreme path.

Accordingly, onboarding an internationally recognized and esteemed monetary restructuring firm, with professional expertise in the comprehensive complex field of Sovereign finance and banking, would go a long way to fully validate the genuine viability of a well reasoned, planned and completely prepared alternative option for Greece. Establishing beyond any reasonable doubt the imperative credibility necessary in order to successfully leverage an epic bluff of such magnitude, or simply to have the full capability so as to effectively exercise the monetary reset option should it become entirely necessary.

The old adage; carry a big stick so you don’t have to use it, immediately comes to mind.

Finally, it is my genuine belief, that your special souls and broad shoulders, are now bearing the long awaited bright torch of capital enlightenment, which may very well carry with it an even more momentous moment in time than the vital issue of Greece itself, which is quite naturally closest to your hearts.

These are my sincere concerns, that I feel compelled to pass on to you, and which I would very much appreciate the opportunity to briefly discuss with you. As I see it, your only viable play is to threaten to go Icelandic on the Troika’s Medieval ass, thus the completely credible option/bluff game theory stratagem.

When you’re up against monsters, don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.

Good luck my brother in arms, and Godspeed, know that we are all with you

Respectfully,
Bruno de Landevoisin

[gnk]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

You sound very capable. May I be so bold as to suggest that you get involved and set out to repair what you feel is presently disfunctional; with a vew to leaving Greece in a better place than when you arrived.

Thanks for the kind words Chris.

I have thought of doing that. It's difficult for me because I live on a quiet island, which is the major reason for my moving here. Most of the "action" is in Athens. I would never to move to Athens, just a personal preference. Living in Athens to me would entail living the fast paced life I left behind back in the States.

To Woodsman:

The 2008 GFC changed my priorities in life - what I value. I was tired of the corporate grind, the weather, and I guess I was approaching a mid life "re-evaluation." Most of my life, I always thought of living abroad, experiencing something new. I have family ties here in Greece, as my parents were born here. So moving here was pretty easy. I live with less, and I live better. I'm a teacher and a beekeeper, and everyday I see the clear blue waters of the Ionian Sea. The food here is still incredible, I have a large extended family here, and the climate is very mild.

I am a dual citizen now, so I have freedom to work and travel through out the EU, and the US. So I will always have options.

I may complain about the Greek system, but I still love living here. Despite Greece's dysfunctionality when it comes to governance and politics, its culture and society is extremely adaptable to economic shifts. Yes, it is a depression. But life here isn't the catastrophe it would be in other countries if those other countries had the same unemployment rates. The people here sometimes seem to me to be unhinged, in a funny kind of way, but they are nonetheless extremely resilient.

[gorinv]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

Thanks for the kind words Chris.

I have thought of doing that. It's difficult for me because I live on a quiet island, which is the major reason for my moving here. Most of the "action" is in Athens. I would never to move to Athens, just a personal preference. Living in Athens to me would entail living the fast paced life I left behind back in the States.

To Woodsman:

The 2008 GFC changed my priorities in life - what I value. I was tired of the corporate grind, the weather, and I guess I was approaching a mid life "re-evaluation." Most of my life, I always thought of living abroad, experiencing something new. I have family ties here in Greece, as my parents were born here. So moving here was pretty easy. I live with less, and I live better. I'm a teacher and a beekeeper, and everyday I see the clear blue waters of the Ionian Sea. The food here is still incredible, I have a large extended family here, and the climate is very mild.

I am a dual citizen now, so I have freedom to work and travel through out the EU, and the US. So I will always have options.

I may complain about the Greek system, but I still love living here. Despite Greece's dysfunctionality when it comes to governance and politics, its culture and society is extremely adaptable to economic shifts. Yes, it is a depression. But life here isn't the catastrophe it would be in other countries if those other countries had the same unemployment rates. The people here sometimes seem to me to be unhinged, in a funny kind of way, but they are nonetheless extremely resilient.

GNK - this post encapsulates what I love and respect about the Greeks. It's about family and the love you have for them and your homeland. Greece will rise again!

[don]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

Greece Shuns EU Bailout Cash Before Dijsselbloem Visit


(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s not interested in persuading Greece’s official creditors to release the final 7 billion euros ($8 billion) of bailout funds as Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem headed to Athens for talks on Friday.

Greece wants to agree a new plan shifting from spending cuts to combating corruption and boosting public investment. The proposal hinges on the euro area and the European Central Bank agreeing to write down Greece’s public debt, a suggestion that has been met with skepticism by officials across the rest of Europe. “We don’t want the 7 billion euros,” Varoufakis said in an interview with the New York Times published late on Thursday. “We want to sit down and rethink the whole program.”

By turning away from the bailout deal, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras risks leaving the country’s banking system exposed as depositors withdraw their cash. The ECB only accepts junk-rated Greek assets in its financing operations because the government has submitted to a rescue program.
“In all honesty, if you sum up all their promises then the Greek budget will very quickly be out of balance and then further debt relief won’t help anyway,” Dijsselbloem said in Amsterdam on the eve of his trip. “We want to keep Greece in the euro zone, in the European Union, but that also requires the Greeks to meet their commitments.”

Risks Exaggerated

Greek stocks and bonds have stabilized after Tsipras’s Jan. 25 election victory triggered a three-day rout that wiped as much as $11 billion from banking stocks. The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange rose 1 percent at 1:09 p.m. local, while yields on 10-year Greek bonds fell 21 basis points to 9.96 percent.

“When stories come out like this they are frequently exaggerated and the price gets beaten down,” Nobel Laureate and Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller, told Bloomberg TV. “Greece won’t exit” the euro area, Shiller said, “and they may even get a restructuring.”
European Parliament Martin Schulz confirmed the divide between Tsipras and the rest of Europe after two hours of talks with the Greek leader in Athens on Thursday.

“In diplomatic parlance, they say that talks were constructive and honest when they have ended in disagreement,” Schulz said. “Well, I will say that talks were honest and constructive.”

Even so, Schulz did win reassurances from Tsipras that he won’t take any “unilateral actions” without talking them through first with European officials.

Troika Deal

The so-called troika of the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the euro area have committed about 240 billion euros in emergency loans to Greece, in return for spending cuts and overhauls in the country’s labor and products markets. The measures exacerbated the steepest recession in living memory and catapulted anti-bailout Syriza party into government, this week.

Syriza, an acronym for Coalition of the Radical Left, formed an alliance with right wing Independent Greeks party, whose leader, Panos Kammenos has said that euro area is being governed by German Neo-Nazis.

The new government doesn’t recognize troika bureaucrats as legitimate interlocutors, and wants a political agreement with euro area governments, which will include a “moratorium” on debt repayments, financing for the restructuring of the Greek economy, and the exclusion of public investment from deficit limit calculations.

Uncertainty over the country’s financing prospects under a Syriza-led government was already rattling depositors in the run-up to Sunday’s election. Deposit outflows accelerated to a euro-era record last week with 11 billion euros, about 7 percent of total deposits, leaving the system in January, according to a person familiar with the matter.

“Will Greece antagonize the European union? If they don’t there won’t be any problems,” Alvaro Nadal, chief economic adviser to the Spanish prime minister, said in a radio interview in Madrid on Friday. “If they do, there will be, on all fronts.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Nikos Chrysoloras in Athens at nchrysoloras@bloomberg.net

[don]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

Right. Now how do you say "hopium" in Greek?

think they flashed pics of a dead Gaddafi and Saddam, closing with bombing footage of Yugoslavia and a helping of Greek colonels on the side, to make their point on where not to go?

Greece Steps Back Into Line With European Union Policy on Russia Sanctions

By ANDREW HIGGINSJAN. 29, 2015


BRUSSELS — Gathering in Brussels, European foreign ministers scrambled on Thursday to hold a united front against Russia over Ukraine, calming worries that the election of a far-left government in Greece hostile to sanctions could upend Europe’s policy toward Moscow.

This week’s victory of the anti-establishment Syriza party in Greece had been widely seen as enhancing dogged but previously unsuccessful efforts by Russia to divide members of the European Union and undermine the bloc’s sanctions policy.


In the end, however, Greece backed away from strong statements denouncing sanctions and joined other countries in the 28-member bloc in a unanimous vote in favor of expanding a list of sanctioned individuals, mostly Russians, and of work to prepare “any further action” to pressure combatants to respect a stillborn truce agreement from last year.

Greece also joined other countries in endorsing a six-month extension of sanctions imposed last March that would otherwise have soon expired.

The acquiescence of Greece’s new leftist government was greeted optimistically as a sign that, despite the tough words issued from Greek officials in recent days, Athens would continue to work with its European Union partners, including, perhaps, on its debt obligations.

[don]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

has the dust settled?

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says

Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Central Bank funding.

“This position enabled us to win the trust of the Greek people,” Mr Varoufakis said during a joint news conference with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who was visiting Athens for the first time since a leftwing government came to power this week.

He also blasted the deeply unpopular bailout monitors from the European Commission, IMF and ECB, also known as “ the troika”, saying: “We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.”

Germany Prepared for Negotiation But Won't Negotiate

The position of Germany and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, is equally one-sided.

Mr Dijsselbloem warned the new government against taking unilateral steps or ignoring arrangements with lenders, saying “the problems of the Greek economy have not disappeared overnight with the elections.”

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, warned Athens on Friday against trying to “blackmail” Germany with its financial demands.

Mr Schäuble said Germany was ready to co-operate but only on the basis of current agreements. “We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed,” he said. “Beyond that, it is hard to blackmail us.”

Martin Jäger, the German finance ministry spokesman, said any request for an extension of the existing financing programme would only be acceptable when it was “tied with a clear readiness of Greece to implement the agreed reforms”.

Gaming Theory

Everyone is willing to negotiate, but only on their terms. Realistically, no one is willing to negotiate. Moreover, the Troika has its hands full with Yanis Varoufakis, an expert who wrote a Book on Game Theory.

I suspect prime minister Alexis Tsipras picked Varoufakis precisely because of his skills at game theory.

New Game to Play

Please consider a few snips from Yanis Varoufakis: From Accidental Economist to Finance Minister by Tony Aspromourgos, Professor at University of Sydney.

Varoufakis was a gifted and popular university teacher in Sydney. I know because I taught side-by-side with him for a number of years. He was also a thoughtful and productive researcher.

His research was first focused primarily upon game theory. But he also developed an expansive intellectual reach across what may be called “political economy” in the generic sense, particularly focused on the evolution of capitalism as a global system.

Hesitant politician

Varoufakis has described himself as an “accidental economist”. He is perhaps even more an accidental finance minister.

There is no reason to doubt the sincerity of his earlier expressed ambivalence about entering politics and the party-political fray. It is the vacuum created by the failure of the mainstream parties of the centre-left and centre-right that calls forth this participation.

The media’s referring to the new Greek government as “far left” or “radical left” is just an intellectually lazy acquiescence in the language of the European political and policy establishment.

In truth, the position of Syriza is not so way out. Syriza is merely left-wing, whereas the mainstream European parties supposedly of the centre-left are no longer left-wing at all.

New Game to Play

I mentioned above that Varoufakis’s earliest academic research was concerned with game theory, albeit from a rather critical standpoint. He has already broken down the realities of one Greek election using game analogies.

Game theory as a method of research in the social sciences is first and foremost about the logic of strategic interaction between players. The situation that is being played out now, between Greece (as well as others of the “south”) and the political establishment in Europe, is without doubt a strategic situation. It is a game of high-stakes policy poker with the players on both sides, perhaps engaged in an element of bluff.

It is interesting that a game theory expert should find himself, now, at the centre of this situation. There is a great deal at stake, for the welfare of the people of Greece, the other high-debt States and Europe as a whole, as well as for the viability of the European Union and the euro.

Nobody's Right If Everybody's Wrong

What if they are all wrong?




Buffalo Springfield - Mr Soul - Live HP 1966

Olive Branch Smashed

Greece's refusal of a bailout extension puts a time limit on matters. The existing bailout agreement expires late-February, less than a month from now.

Interesting, the refusal to accept an extension comes on this olive branch just a few hours ago: Europe Hints at Greek Bailout Extension.

Grexit in the Cards?

Unless cooler heads prevail, Grexit is in the cards.

Right now it appears as if neither side will back down. Calling the Troika "Rottenly Constructed" surely sets the tone for Greece.

"We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed" sets the tone for Germany.

I wonder if the Greek position is on purpose.

Tsipras' claim that he wants Greece to stay on the euro. That helped get him elected. Is that how he really feels?

If not, then unless he gets nearly everything he wants, Grexit is all but assured. And if no agreement is reached, Tsipras has an easy fallback plan: Blame it on Germany and the much hated Troika.

Mish's Game Theory Math

• [*=left]Greece will be ruined if it exits. But it will also recover faster.
  [*=left]If Greece stays in the eurozone, on Germany's terms, it will bleed to death for another decade or more.
  [*=left]Germany and the Eurozone have more to lose than Greece.
  [*=left]If Greece exits, the entire eurozone will blow sky high simply because of "exit math"

Exit Math

I wrote about exit math twice recently.

• [*=left]January 22: Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted to German and French Taxpayers; Bluff of the Day Revisited
  [*=left]January 27: Greek Payback Math at 0% Interest

If Germany and the eurozone does not bend significantly, Greece may very well come to the conclusion it has little to lose and everything to gain in the long haul by telling the Troika to go to hell.

And that is a position I endorse even though I disagree with many of the overall policies of SYRIZA.

In the end, my analysis says the eurozone has far more to lose than Greece if a Grexit occurs. However, I highly doubt Germany realizes that.

Even if Germany does, it takes unanimous agreement from all 19 eurozone countries to revise the agreement. That's part of the math.

Place your bets.

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#Xpq6yB7RzdG0h6qX.99

[Chris Coles]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

I can only say, having sat and listened to Yanis Varoufakis speak, occasionally also debating with him, both in person, fact to face and on his blog site; he is a VERY astute individual. Very strong minded; dare I say, a classic leader not afraid to say what he believes to be true. He has a strong following within the student population and I am certainly an admirer.

[GRG55]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

I can only say, having sat and listened to Yanis Varoufakis speak, occasionally also debating with him, both in person, fact to face and on his blog site; he is a VERY astute individual. Very strong minded; dare I say, a classic leader not afraid to say what he believes to be true. He has a strong following within the student population and I am certainly an admirer.

Some days Yanis Varoufakis seems the only sane public voice (at least to me) in this debate. I think it's appropriate to remind iTulipers that you have referred to Professor Varoufakis' work in the past (reference your links in jk's "Crisis in Europe" thread) Chris, and I have been a follower of his blog for several years now.

The mainstream media coverage of what is going on right now is utterly deplorable. Greece is not going to exit. Some of the posturing going on in the aftermath of the election is approaching comical.

In a nutshell Yanis Varoufakis, as Finance Minister, is simply stating more publicly the blindingly obvious that he has written about as an academic; this is a solvency problem, not a liquidity problem, and therefore more "temporary" debt won't fix it. Some portion of the debt has to be written down, it can't all be inflated away (especially with the German attitude towards inflation) and it won't be repaid through future taxes from post-restructure economic growth (Greece's economy will take many years just to recover from the contraction it has suffered in the past half-decade).

That means a voluntary debt forgiveness negotiation, or an involuntary default...that is the simple choice facing the Troika.

[gnk]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

I too respect Varoufakis (as and academic, not sure as a Finance Minister so far). I have read many of his blog posts in the past. I agree with his diagnosis especially about global imbalances, but I rarely agree with his prescriptions/solutions. He is a self proclaimed "libertarian Marxist" which would ordinarily make me worry, but I think that's just fodder for leftist Greeks. I believe he's actually an MMT'er (Modern Monetary Theorist), which I see as the other extreme end of the monetary spectrum, the Austrians being the other end. MMT'ers understand how the monetary system works, but they think that money can spring eternal to solve all of humanity's ills.

I have been watching closely. I see a lot of amateurism being displayed. A lot of backtracking/re-clarification - first on Russia, which was really a miscommunication but Tsipras' party has many Russian/Marxist sympathizers, then on all inclusive tourism, then on the ultimate goal of privatizations (they will ultimately privatize), and lately in Varoufakis' treatment of the Troika. Tsipras, just today, sent an email to Bloomberg and I assume many other financial publications. He states that Greece will pay the ECB and the IMF. That's 2/3rds of the Troika. The other third? That's the collective nations that bought Greek debt - the EU. Varoufakis and Tsipras think they can accomplish something there via negotiations. I highly doubt they can accomplish anything significant.

I don't know why he doesn't want the auditors coming to Greece, yet expects to ask for a haircut without follow-up? Something doesn't make sense. Greece's still has a long way to reform.

Nonetheless, starting with that Bloomberg article about the Tsipras email sent this afternoon, I see a lot of damage control going on before the markets open on Monday.

I still think these academic types in the Tsipras Cabinet are displaying a lot of amateurism and inexperience. Very recently I read a German article about the follow-up meeting between Martin Shulz and Merkel in Strasbourg. Shultz told Merkel that Tsipras is beginning to understand the severity of the situation.

Greece does not have a lot of time. But ultimately, I think this confrontational test of EU cooperation will blow over. If not, and Greece goes back to the Drachma, Tsipras will go down as the worst Greek PM in history. The Greek penchant for rioting will have him packing his bags and leaving Greece. I hope he knows that because so far, I think the man has a messiah complex and that worries me.

[gnk]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

Keep in mind that the debt payments are more like a practically interest free loan. Don't just look at the amount owed, but the interest as well. yet I agree the debt is still cumbersome. However, my number one concern is that Greece reforms and becomes a developed, western country before addressing the debtload. Greece still has a long way to go. And throwing money at Greece, or giving Greece a haircut will accomplish little.

Furthermore, as I have stated below - these academics don't communicate well. They are trying to balance a Marxist message at home while trying to keep the markets from tanking. Has anyone ever accomplished that? Know Tsipras' past pre-election comments, know his cabinet's ministers' background, and you will understand that Tsipras has a long way to go in creating a non-conflicting message. He only has himself to blame. You can't have it both ways, and Varoufakis calling himself a libertarian Marxist doesn't help either.

One of his cabinet members says that Greek Jews don't pay taxes (as if Greek Greeks do?!!! Ha!) Another wants out of the EU. Tsipras, upon winning the election visited a Memorial of Greeks that were killed by Nazis, and then visited his first Ambassador - from Russia! This guy needs a Madison Avenue advertising/marketing education.

Tsipras, and egghead Varoufakis, still don't understand how to speak to the media. Up to now, they enjoyed the "Maverick" label. Now that the media is looking more closely, their past comments are haunting them.

By the way, I call Varoufakis an egghead not as an insult. It's just that these brilliant academic types need to understand that they have to "dumb down" the message, stay on message, and know how to answer back on their past comments.

[GRG55]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

...Tsipras, and egghead Varoufakis, still don't understand how to speak to the media. Up to now, they enjoyed the "Maverick" label. Now that the media is looking more closely, their past comments are haunting them.

By the way, I call Varoufakis an egghead not as an insult. It's just that these brilliant academic types need to understand that they have to "dumb down" the message, stay on message, and know how to answer back on their past comments.

Speaking to the media is the art of giving simple answers to simpleminded questions about complex issues. It's an acquired skill and most newly elected academics with no prior political experience do badly at it. Varoufakis is no exception. He has difficulty giving compelling "sound-bite" answers to interviewers who want to get through their 20 questions in the allotted time on camera.

It does not change the situation. The debt is becoming ever more difficult to inflate away in a dis-inflationary environment in Europe. Your point that the restructuring is a necessary condition for Greece to move forward is not one I disagree with. However, it does not change the fact the debt can never, ever be repaid from future taxes on the Greek economy; the math doesn't work.

[GRG55]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

...I have been watching closely. I see a lot of amateurism being displayed. A lot of backtracking/re-clarification - first on Russia, which was really a miscommunication but Tsipras' party has many Russian/Marxist sympathizers, then on all inclusive tourism, then on the ultimate goal of privatizations (they will ultimately privatize), and lately in Varoufakis' treatment of the Troika. Tsipras, just today, sent an email to Bloomberg and I assume many other financial publications. He states that Greece will pay the ECB and the IMF. That's 2/3rds of the Troika. The other third? That's the collective nations that bought Greek debt - the EU. Varoufakis and Tsipras think they can accomplish something there via negotiations. I highly doubt they can accomplish anything significant...

...I still think these academic types in the Tsipras Cabinet are displaying a lot of amateurism and inexperience. Very recently I read a German article about the follow-up meeting between Martin Shulz and Merkel in Strasbourg. Shultz told Merkel that Tsipras is beginning to understand the severity of the situation.

Greece does not have a lot of time. But ultimately, I think this confrontational test of EU cooperation will blow over. If not, and Greece goes back to the Drachma, Tsipras will go down as the worst Greek PM in history. The Greek penchant for rioting will have him packing his bags and leaving Greece. I hope he knows that because so far, I think the man has a messiah complex and that worries me.

Of course there is a lot of "amateurism" being displayed. Not just by the academics in the government. For the most part these are not seasoned politicians, so we should not be surprised. Compound that by the fact the government itself is a coalition. I'll refer back to my comment about "euphoric division of the spoils of victory" in a previous post on this thread:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...783#post291783

The confrontation (on both sides) is posturing. The risk of a Grexit isn't zero, but it would seem rather minuscule at this time. The emotional rhetoric will calm down with the passing of time, and we should (hopefully) see efforts turn to dealing with the practical and political realities of the circumstance.

[gnk]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

It does not change the situation. The debt is becoming ever more difficult to inflate away in a dis-inflationary environment in Europe. Your point that the restructuring is a necessary condition for Greece to move forward is not one I disagree with. However, it does not change the fact the debt can never, ever be repaid from future taxes on the Greek economy; the math doesn't work.

I agree with what you say GRG55. Before moving to Greece, and during my first year here, I was very anti-Troika. It didn't make economic sense. It still doesn't. But upon seeing how inept and corrupt the system here is, my views have changed. And I also started seeing positive changes due to the Troika and the reforms that were implemented "at gunpoint," so to speak.

While much of the world is moving towards freer markets and growing their economies, there is a large component of Greek Society that identifies with Venezuela, Cuba, and Russia. I'm not talking about kids thinking they're cool wearing a Che Guevara t-shirt. I'm talking about adults, some in important positions, that challenge Greece's position in the Western world. Adults that challenge Greece's alliance, (NATO), and want nothing to do with Germany or the USA.

I am not kidding. Much of that is due to Greece's strategic location, and the historical significance of that: Greece has always been an area where the Superpower du jour would have to either interfere with local matters, or just take over. The Marxists in Greece can be described as a kind of "blowback" caused by Superpower policies/interference. Then there is the corruption. This probably dates back to the various empires that passed through here. They would choose local families to run things and let them steal what they want. The culture of a society is usually rooted in its past.

That said, as much as I dislike the debt load Greece has to bear, I see that debt load serving another purpose. It is the Sword of Damocles, hanging over Greece's head. Without this Sword of Damocles, the EU could never effect the changes that are needed to occur in Greece. The local political power structure, both left and right wing, are incapable. One side wants to steer Greece into a Marxist past that no longer exists for many countries, the other side wants to continue the game of patronage and graft. And under both scenarios, property rights suffer and stability in the law is practically non existent.

I think many in the West underestimate the power of stability (legal certainty) and property rights. They take those two concepts for granted because they don't realize their presence. It's not always about what degree of economic "ism" is in place - I would say property rights and stability are just as important, if not more. Without legal certainty and stability, a country has no future - businesses and individuals are forced to break the law and it's a slow devolution from there. Neither capitalist, nor socialist systems succeed in such an environment.

I say, leave that Sword of Damocles alone, for now, at least for a few more years. The EU will not succeed unless laws and systems are harmonized.

If Tsipras was given everything he wanted, Greece would economically implode once again within 5 years time. And at that time, I would guess, ironically, that North Korea would have advanced more than Greece. Greece would have regressed. That's not hyperbole.

[don]

Re: Will Greece be the first country to overthrow the rule of bankers and elites?

Yanis Varoufakis Newsnight interview