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Why Wages Lag

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  • #16
    Re: Why Wages Lag

    Two years ago in 2011 a Nobel prize-winning economist, Michael Spence, confirmed my decade-old conclusion that the US economy no longer had the capability to create any jobs except low-wage domestic service jobs that do not produce tradable goods and services that can be exported to reduce the massive US trade deficit. Spence validated my argument that the “new economy” was the offshored economy. Spence concluded that the outlook for the US economy and US employment is dire. The US faces “a long-term structural challenge with respect to the quantity and quality of employment opportunities in the United States. A related set of challenges concerns the income distribution; almost all incremental employment has occurred in the non-tradable sector, which has experienced much slower growth in value added per employee. Because that number is highly correlated with income, it goes a long way to explain the stagnation of wages across large segments of the workforce.” http://www.cfr.org/industrial-policy...allenge/p24366
    Like oil, there's many moving parts in the low wage story.

    Among them, in addition to offshoring and lower pay, work-visa professionals, is:

    the end of the Cold War.

    the transition to a neoliberal global economy.

    the US tipping from recession to depression for an increasing number of working people.

    the full-court ideological offensive on organized labor in any form, including both unions and pensions. How quickly these have been embraced as 'dirty words' and/or 'lucky' benefits for a shrinking minority.

    As tough as it is running a small business today - it was easier back in the late 70s to mid 90s - the loss of labor leverage is a factor in keepin' going.

    from the NSBA ( a bit dated but I can't imagine it's improved significantly)

    Small Business by the Numbers

    More than one in two people in the U.S. private workforce work for or run a small business, according to data fromthe U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy and U.S. Census Bureau

    Every one in two individuals in the U.S. private workforce run or work for a small business.

    Since 1989, small business has created 93.5 percent of all net new jobs, totaling 21.9 million new jobs in the past19 years—or 4,000 jobs per day.

    Small-business comprises 99.7 of all U.S. private employers and creates more than half of U.S. gross domestic product.

    Small firms create 13 times more patents per employee than large firms, and export an average of $375 billion ingoods and services every year.

    Fifty-four percent of adults surveyed in the 2007 Harris Interactive Poll, Confidence in Leaders of MajorInstitutions expressed a great deal of confidence in small-business owners—the only group in the past three yearsto garner such a high rating from a majority of people.

    Economic Slowdown

    When asked in early 2007 about their economic outlook, a majority of small-business owners responded positively. In early 2008, however, a whopping 71 percent expressed a negative outlook on the economy. That number jumped to 79 percent in September 2008.

    Despite the relatively bleak outlook for the U.S. economy as a whole, 75 percent of small-business owners today are confident about the future of their own business.

    More than half (55 percent) of business owners surveyed said they have faced difficulty securing credit over thelast year.

    According to the October 2008 Federal Reserve Board Senior Loan Officer Survey, 75 percent of U.S. banks have tightened their lending standards on small business loans. When asked about credit cards, 20 percent cited reduced limits on prime borrowers while 60 percent lowered limits on nonprime borrowers. Ninety-five of those banks that lowered limits cited the poor economy and reduced tolerance for risk as reasons for lowering the credit card limits—neither of which are attributable to poor performance of the credit card holder.

    Key Issues

    Fifty percent of small-business owners cite “economic uncertainty” as one of the most significant challenges they face to the growth and survival of their business, with the cost of health insurance (35 percent) and lack of available capital (32 percent) rounding out the top three.

    Spikes in energy costs have negatively impacted 77 percent of small-business owners, according to the February 2008 NSBA survey.

    In 2008, only 38 percent of all small businesses were able to provide health insurance to their employees, downfrom 61 percent in 1993.

    Credit cards continue to be the largest source of financing for small businesses, yet 57 percent report that their credit card terms are worsening.

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    • #17
      Re: Why Wages Lag

      Originally posted by rjwjr View Post
      Actually, we attempt to manage what we consider to be a healthy balance. We want some "unskilled" laborers that have experience. Our "core group" if you will that is spread out strategically by department/skill set. Some have been with us for over 25 years (in a 40 year old company). Then we balance that with a group that turns-over regularly. Since this group is "unskilled" the training investment is minimal and the duration is short. Keeping this group turning over keeps our labor costs lower over time than if we kept every employee for the long term. It also brings in fresh personalities and ideas/questions which help us on occasion. In my opinion, "experience" in an unskilled job is overrated. If I had to choose one extreme or the other, I'd choose a workforce that turns over 100% every year over one that never turns over as I believe the cost of training to be far less than the cost of increasing & compounding wages and benefits.
      Interesting. What you describe here is Marx's concept of a surplus army of labor and its role as the mechanism for establishing wages.

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      • #18
        Re: Why Wages Lag

        Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
        Interesting. What you describe here is Marx's concept of a surplus army of labor and its role as the mechanism for establishing wages.
        It's pretty obvious once you think it through, like basically all of Marx's work. Funny, that.

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        • #19
          Re: Why Wages Lag

          Originally posted by rjwjr View Post
          Actually, we attempt to manage what we consider to be a healthy balance. We want some "unskilled" laborers that have experience. Our "core group" if you will that is spread out strategically by department/skill set. Some have been with us for over 25 years (in a 40 year old company). Then we balance that with a group that turns-over regularly. Since this group is "unskilled" the training investment is minimal and the duration is short. Keeping this group turning over keeps our labor costs lower over time than if we kept every employee for the long term. It also brings in fresh personalities and ideas/questions which help us on occasion. In my opinion, "experience" in an unskilled job is overrated. If I had to choose one extreme or the other, I'd choose a workforce that turns over 100% every year over one that never turns over as I believe the cost of training to be far less than the cost of increasing & compounding wages and benefits.

          Interesting point on the 100% turnover. Perhaps the magic word here is "skill". It isn't really about skill but cost of utilization of a person. We have two economies: profesional and non-professional. While we like to think that professional is about who we choose to utilize and pay it really is about sorting out who we do not utilize and pay. Once upon a time experience implied professional. But, you can't monetize experience without actually accomplishing something thus the FIRE economy doesn't recognize its value.

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          • #20
            Re: Why Wages Lag

            the FIRE economy doesn't recognize its value.
            It would seem the FIRE economy places the champion wealth transfer gurus on the top of the pyramid.

            Wealth creators? Not so high . . . .

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            • #21
              Re: Why Wages Lag

              Agreed. Wealth creation has a higher risk to profit ratio than wealth transfer.

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              • #22
                Re: Why Wages Lag

                Originally posted by sunskyfan View Post
                Agreed. Wealth creation has a higher risk to profit ratio than wealth transfer.
                Especially in our TBTF risk-free environment

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                • #23
                  Re: Why Wages Lag

                  Originally posted by don View Post
                  Especially in our TBTF risk-free environment
                  And then there are the mile high bennies...

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                  • #24
                    Re: Why Wages Lag


                    Epstein pleaded guilty in 2008 in Florida . . . naturally!

                    (My wife refers to Florida as the Pirate State)

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