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They think the Tory gov will fold, UK F*cked ref Northsea production & this is just a "Pump & Dump" exercise:-
Goldman Sachs bets on Conservative victory in 'most uncertain election in a century'
The US investment bank dismisses the rise of Ukip, predicting that supporters will revert to one of the major parties for the general election
Goldman predicts that a strong economic recovery in the run-up to the election will favour the incumbent coalition Photo: AFP/GETTY
By Denise Roland
1:15PM GMT 06 Jan 2015
458 Comments
Goldman Sachs is predicting that the Conservative Party will win the UK general election in May, but said that the outcome is "more uncertain than any in a hundred years".
It said that while the likelihood of any party gaining an overall majority "appears low", the Tories are "marginally more likely than Labour to win the most seats and lead the next government".
In a research note issued by the investment bank on Tuesday, analyst Kevin Daly said: "The outcome is unusually uncertain because party support is more fragmented than ever previously in the modern era."
Goldman said that despite the high level of uncertainty, it expected a strong economic recovery in the months leading up to the May 7 election to lend weight to the incumbent Tories.
It also dismissed the threat of Ukip, noting that the anti-EU party only has two sitting MPs and that supporters may be more inclined to vote for one of the major parties when the general election comes around.
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"Given the demographic profile and past voting record of the majority of Ukip voters, these votes appear more likely to shift towards the Conservatives than to Labour," said Goldman.
The bank is bullish on the UK economy, expecting a sustained recovery despite the slowdown in Europe. It has also predicted that wage growth will pick up in 2015 now that employment rates are close to record highs.
It also expects the sharp drop in the price of oil, which has nearly halved since June, to feed through to petrol prices and act as an economic stimulus.
Mr Daly also said the "unusually wide gap between the Conservatives and Labour in terms of perceived economic competence" echoed the situation in 1992, when the Tories defied the polls to claim victory.
"This gap [in perceived economic competence] has played an important role in past UK general elections – most notably in 1992 – skewing the final outcome relative to opinion polling prior to the official vote," he said.
Goldman said there were some factors working in Labour's favour, including a constituency bias that it estimated would boost its vote by 2-3 percentage points.
It also suggested that should Ed Miliband perform well during the pre-election television debates, he could alter the perception that he is less "prime ministerial" than David Cameron. Goldman added that the decline in support for the Liberal Democrats was likely to have shifted voters to Labour, especially in marginal seats.
Goldman Sachs bets on Conservative victory in 'most uncertain election in a century'
The US investment bank dismisses the rise of Ukip, predicting that supporters will revert to one of the major parties for the general election
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Goldman predicts that a strong economic recovery in the run-up to the election will favour the incumbent coalition Photo: AFP/GETTY By Denise Roland
1:15PM GMT 06 Jan 2015
458 Comments Goldman Sachs is predicting that the Conservative Party will win the UK general election in May, but said that the outcome is "more uncertain than any in a hundred years".
It said that while the likelihood of any party gaining an overall majority "appears low", the Tories are "marginally more likely than Labour to win the most seats and lead the next government".
In a research note issued by the investment bank on Tuesday, analyst Kevin Daly said: "The outcome is unusually uncertain because party support is more fragmented than ever previously in the modern era."
Goldman said that despite the high level of uncertainty, it expected a strong economic recovery in the months leading up to the May 7 election to lend weight to the incumbent Tories.
It also dismissed the threat of Ukip, noting that the anti-EU party only has two sitting MPs and that supporters may be more inclined to vote for one of the major parties when the general election comes around.
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06 Jan 2015
"Given the demographic profile and past voting record of the majority of Ukip voters, these votes appear more likely to shift towards the Conservatives than to Labour," said Goldman.
The bank is bullish on the UK economy, expecting a sustained recovery despite the slowdown in Europe. It has also predicted that wage growth will pick up in 2015 now that employment rates are close to record highs.
It also expects the sharp drop in the price of oil, which has nearly halved since June, to feed through to petrol prices and act as an economic stimulus.
Mr Daly also said the "unusually wide gap between the Conservatives and Labour in terms of perceived economic competence" echoed the situation in 1992, when the Tories defied the polls to claim victory.
"This gap [in perceived economic competence] has played an important role in past UK general elections – most notably in 1992 – skewing the final outcome relative to opinion polling prior to the official vote," he said.
Goldman said there were some factors working in Labour's favour, including a constituency bias that it estimated would boost its vote by 2-3 percentage points.
It also suggested that should Ed Miliband perform well during the pre-election television debates, he could alter the perception that he is less "prime ministerial" than David Cameron. Goldman added that the decline in support for the Liberal Democrats was likely to have shifted voters to Labour, especially in marginal seats.
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