2015 - Greece drops Euro?

[meofio]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I predict if Greece exit eurozone, Greece's economy will implode, and it will experience high inflation, most greeks will hold Euro instead of drachma. It will have little effect on the rest of the eurozone, just like Detroit seceding from United States will not smash the US dollar.

[GRG55]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I bet. Maybe the ad can say: Earthy feel! Original vintage condition! Lots of potential! Low maintenance yard! This one won't last!

Yep! I think the realtorspeak adjective is "unspoiled..."

[jk]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I predict if Greece exit eurozone, Greece's economy will implode, and it will experience high inflation, most greeks will hold Euro instead of drachma. It will have little effect on the rest of the eurozone, just like Detroit seceding from United States will not smash the US dollar.

the effects would be to the bond markets of italy, spain, portugal and france. and, of course, the target 2 balances flooding even more toward germany.

[touchring]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I predict if Greece exit eurozone, Greece's economy will implode, and it will experience high inflation, most greeks will hold Euro instead of drachma. It will have little effect on the rest of the eurozone, just like Detroit seceding from United States will not smash the US dollar.

How? An implosion of the current unemployment rate of 25% to 35%?

[EJ]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I predict if Greece exit eurozone, Greece's economy will implode, and it will experience high inflation, most greeks will hold Euro instead of drachma. It will have little effect on the rest of the eurozone, just like Detroit seceding from United States will not smash the US dollar.

The drachma steadily weakened versus the USD from 1981 until Greece joined the euro and dropped the drachma. In 2013 I theorized that the ghost of the drachma continued to weaken. Had Greece exited the euro in 2013 and reinstated the drachma I expected the initial exchange rate value was likely to reflect a deterioration from 400 to 600 since Greece entered the euro. Even if the New drachma were so priced, I expect that subsequently the currency might immediately depreciate by 50%.

I don't see any reason to change that view. The Greek leadership, knowing this, will not choose leave the euro. From a popular support standpoint, years of austerity appear to be finally bearing fruit.

Bond prices are steady and GDP has turned positive after trending up since Q1 2011.

Greece will not leave the euro and will continue to tough-out austerity measures.

[jk]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

The drachma steadily weakened versus the USD from 1981 until Greece joined the euro and dropped the drachma. In 2013 I theorized that the ghost of the drachma continued to weaken. Had Greece exited the euro in 2013 and reinstated the drachma I expected the initial exchange rate value was likely to reflect a deterioration from 400 to 600 since Greece entered the euro. Even if the New drachma were so priced, I expect that subsequently the currency might immediately depreciate by 50%.

I don't see any reason to change that view. The Greek leadership, knowing this, will not choose leave the euro. From a popular support standpoint, years of austerity appear to be finally bearing fruit.

Bond prices are steady and GDP has turned positive after trending up since Q1 2011.

Greece will not leave the euro and will continue to tough-out austerity measures.

this is very convincing that greece SHOULD NOT leave the euro. but economic reality is 2nd to political reality sometimes. we'll see if the greek electorate pulls back from syriza, or how syriza will handle the situation of actually winning control of the gov't. it appears that would at least have to bluff that they're ready to leave in order to get some debt relief, and who knows what happens if their bluff were to be called.

[shiny!]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

I bet. Maybe the ad can say: Earthy feel! Original vintage condition! Lots of potential! Low maintenance yard! This one won't last!

Realtors describe run down adobes in NM as "Charming home with lots of character"
'With character' is a euphamism for 'not up to code' or, as my late husband put it, 'nothing level, nothing square.'

[lektrode]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

...'With character' is a euphamism for 'not up to code' or, ...

'nice fixer-upper opportunity'

[shiny!]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

Where does Goldman want the US to be in all of this?

When I wrote that I was referring to this (from 2011):

What price the new democracy? Goldman Sachs conquers europe

[gnk]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

this is very convincing that greece SHOULD NOT leave the euro. but economic reality is 2nd to political reality sometimes. we'll see if the greek electorate pulls back from syriza, or how syriza will handle the situation of actually winning control of the gov't. it appears that would at least have to bluff that they're ready to leave in order to get some debt relief, and who knows what happens if their bluff were to be called.

There's no room for bluffing. Merkel and others from Germany have recently stated that the EU can handle a Grexit. What they really mean (without saying it) is that the German banks, that were once ready to implode along with Greece a few years ago, are now in much better shape thanks to the ECB. Don't forget, the Greek ( PIIGS et al) "bailouts" a few years ago were also German bank bailouts.

And if there were to be a Grexit, it would serve the EU well to make Greece an example of what leaving the EU would look like. I'll give you a hint: it wouldn't be pretty. And "they" have the influence to make sure it happens. This scenario is highly unlikely, even if Tsipras wins.

I have said it before - the troika, despite austerity, has served Greece well. It forced Greece to implement much needed government and economic reforms that the Greek leadership itself could never have implemented. These reforms have helped the Greek economy much more than if Greece just received a debt writedown or free money while its current political leadership retained 100% control.

[santafe2]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

Realtors describe run down adobes in NM as "Charming home with lots of character"

Sadly this is too true. I speak from much experience, there is no building material less comfortable than adobe in summer and it's much worse in the winter. And to confirm your note above, I read to you from this morning's paper:..."authentic adobe hand crafted home, lovingly built by the owner in 1950...". Whatever we make up, realtors are still much better at this.

Let me explain what the above quote means in reality as there are thousands of homes like this in Northern New Mexico. This guy, his brothers and his cousins would mix and lay out adobe bricks on Sunday after church, let them dry all week while they were working. Then next Saturday they would stack them. The foundation is rock rubble and if you're lucky, some concrete. The bond beam at the top of the walls is most likely wood and since adobe retains some water, it's begun to rot. There are 3-4 layers of roofing so you'll have to remove all of them to put a proper roof on the house. A case or two of Old Milwaukee or Brew 102s were consumed each weekend to ensure everyone would show up to help. You will walk either uphill or downhill as you go from the front door to the kitchen.

But wait, that's not all! This house is in the Historic District, it's over 50 years old and is "contributing". It's a tear down in any other location but here you'll have to spend the next two years working with your architect, the "H Board" and the City Council to come up with a design that everyone can agree on - including all of your neighbors. Our current home is one we purchased in 2004. At the time it was 45 years old but the clock was ticking so we had to get our project approved before our old adobe charmer was locked in as "contributing". Even with this will still had to maintain the original foot print and building materials on the front of the house.

Below is a picture from our 2nd week of demolition. Notice the nylon strap holding the adobe wall up until we could get some exterior bracing in place....yup, charming.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

Whatever we make up, realtors are still much better at this.


Below is a picture from our 2nd week of demolition. Notice the nylon strap holding the adobe wall up until we could get some exterior bracing in place....yup, charming.

"Awaiting your inspiration" is a new one I've read recently.

[shiny!]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

Sadly this is too true. I speak from much experience, there is no building material less comfortable than adobe in summer and it's much worse in the winter. And to confirm your note above, I read to you from this morning's paper:..."authentic adobe hand crafted home, lovingly built by the owner in 1950...". Whatever we make up, realtors are still much better at this.

Let me explain what the above quote means in reality as there are thousands of homes like this in Northern New Mexico. This guy, his brothers and his cousins would mix and lay out adobe bricks on Sunday after church, let them dry all week while they were working. Then next Saturday they would stack them. The foundation is rock rubble and if you're lucky, some concrete. The bond beam at the top of the walls is most likely wood and since adobe retains some water, it's begun to rot. There are 3-4 layers of roofing so you'll have to remove all of them to put a proper roof on the house. A case or two of Old Milwaukee or Brew 102s were consumed each weekend to ensure everyone would show up to help. You will walk either uphill or downhill as you go from the front door to the kitchen.

But wait, that's not all! This house is in the Historic District, it's over 50 years old and is "contributing". It's a tear down in any other location but here you'll have to spend the next two years working with your architect, the "H Board" and the City Council to come up with a design that everyone can agree on - including all of your neighbors. Our current home is one we purchased in 2004. At the time it was 45 years old but the clock was ticking so we had to get our project approved before our old adobe charmer was locked in as "contributing". Even with this will still had to maintain the original foot print and building materials on the front of the house.

Below is a picture from our 2nd week of demolition. Notice the nylon strap holding the adobe wall up until we could get some exterior bracing in place....yup, charming.

My sympathies. Everything you say rings a bell. My husband did a lot of handyman work around Espanola, Santa Fe and Albuquerque. It was a nightmare because nothing he worked on was ever built up to code. He'd touch something and everything around it would fall apart. The way NM works, it's the closest thing to Greece in the USA.

I used to work in an old house tucked away on Upper Canyon Road in Santa Fe. It's been added on to so many times, the owner told me that every interior wall was once an exterior wall. He was only half joking. Put a marble down on the original floors and it would roll...

When they purchased the home, he and his wife put large plate glass windows in the living room to overlook the deck and beautiful pine trees. The Historical Commission came in and said plate glass was forbidden. They would have to replace their beautiful windows with windows made up of little panes of glass separated by dark wood frames. It would have been hideous. The inspector wouldn't budge, probably because my friends weren't related to anyone on the commission. (Nepotism rules in NM)

Using picture frame wood, my friends made lattices of wooden rectangles to place over the windows so it looked like individual little windows encased in wooden frames. When the inspector returned, he signed off on the "traditional windows" and left. My friends then removed the fake lattice and enjoyed their beautiful picture windows.

[santafe2]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

My sympathies. Everything you say rings a bell. My husband did a lot of handyman work around Espanola, Santa Fe and Albuquerque. It was a nightmare because nothing he worked on was ever built up to code. He'd touch something and everything around it would fall apart. The way NM works, it's the closest thing to Greece in the USA.

I used to work in an old house tucked away on Upper Canyon Road in Santa Fe. It's been added on to so many times, the owner told me that every interior wall was once an exterior wall. He was only half joking. Put a marble down on the original floors and it would roll...

When they purchased the home, he and his wife put large plate glass windows in the living room to overlook the deck and beautiful pine trees. The Historical Commission came in and said plate glass was forbidden. They would have to replace their beautiful windows with windows made up of little panes of glass separated by dark wood frames. It would have been hideous. The inspector wouldn't budge, probably because my friends weren't related to anyone on the commission. (Nepotism rules in NM)

Using picture frame wood, my friends made lattices of wooden rectangles to place over the windows so it looked like individual little windows encased in wooden frames. When the inspector returned, he signed off on the "traditional windows" and left. My friends then removed the fake lattice and enjoyed their beautiful picture windows.

Hence my favorite local bumper sticker: "New Mexico, pretty much like the old one".

[shiny!]

Re: 2015 - Greece drops Euro?

Hence my favorite local bumper sticker: "New Mexico, pretty much like the old one".

LOL! Literally.