Oil -- nobody knows nothin'

[jpatter666]

When reading this I could not help but think of our own resident expert GRG55 who has often (as I remember) expressed the opinion that nobody knows for sure where oil is going.

Despite his excellent call on oil this year, I imagine he'd agree with a lot of this. Will be interesting to see.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-always-wrong/

[Fox]

Re: Oil -- nobody knows nothin'

btw don't forget that the big banks have abandoned their commodities futures trading. That in and of itself will create more volatility.

Something I don't think the Arabs fully considered when they decided to play God with oil prices. The oil market is now fundamentally different than it was this time last year. They may find that the ship they are steering no longer has a fully functioning rudder.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Oil -- nobody knows nothin'

btw don't forget that the big banks have abandoned their commodities futures trading. That in and of itself will create more volatility.

I bet you that "volatility" price vector just happens to point down a whole lot more than up without the Manhattan Middlemen getting their vig off every commodity on God's Green Earth.

It's not magic that builds downtown skyscrapers. It's rubes and contracts. And the old turf accountant's always willing to provide some liquidity or hedge some volatility or sell you some cure-all snake-oil. And for a price you can't afford not to pay at that.

Step right up!

[GRG55]

Re: Oil -- nobody knows nothin'

When reading this I could not help but think of our own resident expert GRG55 who has often (as I remember) expressed the opinion that nobody knows for sure where oil is going.

Despite his excellent call on oil this year, I imagine he'd agree with a lot of this. Will be interesting to see.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-always-wrong/

Not much to disagree with that I can see. Some things sounded familiar including the oft repeated themes on this forum that forecasting the short term movement in oil price is a mugs game (No one has any idea what oil prices will do), there are a lot of moving parts (Drilling economics are complicated) and oil is the most political of commodities (And then there’s politics).

[Fox]

Re: Oil -- nobody knows nothin'

yup, you're right, with out the big fundies in the market it means we no longer have to pay for their "Skim"

However the trade off is that it means not all Asks will be met with Bids. Not really a bad thing though once everyone learns to adjust.

But hey, grab a few Jerry cans and you can become you're own futures trader playing the swings at the pumps. XD