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A friend sent me this when i asked him:-
1. The crash of £ Sterling is now more-or-less inevitable. The thing is, if Scotland leaves the Union (which will mean they're still the same country, but the Parliaments will be different) then the Scots may have to use a different currency. Maybe. If things work out the way you and think they're going to go, the Scots may well be grateful. But what excuse could "they" use for the £ Sterling falling off a cliff? They cannot afford to admit to Thatcher's debt (or crash the markets outright) nor their inability to pay the debt back. Ok, so how to "they" explain £ Sterling's collapse? Oh, I know, get Scotland to be independent! That should do it.
The English can then blame the Scots (if a Yes vote) and the Scots can breathe a huge sigh of relief until they figure out how little their "economy" has left (North Sea Oil? None left!). The £ Sterling debt is (as you correctly point out) is denominated in £ Sterling, thus if they have heaps of Euroes or US dollars or Renmimbi Yuan or... well, something else (actually a great swathe of currency from a huge range of countries might be) then the debt can be "repaid" for a well reduced amount. Even if this "reduce £ Sterling" scheme is only partly successful, then they've edged a bit further away from collapse (so they think) and can thus push this as far as they can. Watch the "breakup" be blamed for everything in the coming months (if a "yes" vote). Please don't forget: if £ Sterling collapses, the the cost of fuel will shoot up to breath-taking levels. And cause the British Economy to crash and burn.
2. If a "No" vote, then the British Government will make a whole lotta nice noises about it and leave it at that. £ Sterling collapse (which let's face it is going to happen) will cause massive hardship for both England and Scotland - but here's the nice thing: "they" can still blame the independence vote for the collapse. The collapse, and the cuts - whether a "yes" or "no" vote - will happen. They will be brutal and very very deep. Also, expect the UK to have to go for a 1970's style IMF bail out. The best "they" can hope for is it will happen after the next UK election (which I believe is sometime next year). But the cuts can be blamed on £ Sterling collapse, and the £ Sterling collapse can be blamed on merely having the Scottish Vote.
1. The crash of £ Sterling is now more-or-less inevitable. The thing is, if Scotland leaves the Union (which will mean they're still the same country, but the Parliaments will be different) then the Scots may have to use a different currency. Maybe. If things work out the way you and think they're going to go, the Scots may well be grateful. But what excuse could "they" use for the £ Sterling falling off a cliff? They cannot afford to admit to Thatcher's debt (or crash the markets outright) nor their inability to pay the debt back. Ok, so how to "they" explain £ Sterling's collapse? Oh, I know, get Scotland to be independent! That should do it.
The English can then blame the Scots (if a Yes vote) and the Scots can breathe a huge sigh of relief until they figure out how little their "economy" has left (North Sea Oil? None left!). The £ Sterling debt is (as you correctly point out) is denominated in £ Sterling, thus if they have heaps of Euroes or US dollars or Renmimbi Yuan or... well, something else (actually a great swathe of currency from a huge range of countries might be) then the debt can be "repaid" for a well reduced amount. Even if this "reduce £ Sterling" scheme is only partly successful, then they've edged a bit further away from collapse (so they think) and can thus push this as far as they can. Watch the "breakup" be blamed for everything in the coming months (if a "yes" vote). Please don't forget: if £ Sterling collapses, the the cost of fuel will shoot up to breath-taking levels. And cause the British Economy to crash and burn.
2. If a "No" vote, then the British Government will make a whole lotta nice noises about it and leave it at that. £ Sterling collapse (which let's face it is going to happen) will cause massive hardship for both England and Scotland - but here's the nice thing: "they" can still blame the independence vote for the collapse. The collapse, and the cuts - whether a "yes" or "no" vote - will happen. They will be brutal and very very deep. Also, expect the UK to have to go for a 1970's style IMF bail out. The best "they" can hope for is it will happen after the next UK election (which I believe is sometime next year). But the cuts can be blamed on £ Sterling collapse, and the £ Sterling collapse can be blamed on merely having the Scottish Vote.
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