Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

Meanwhile China is starting to act:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...thing-on-buses

China can do this because it is authoritarian and an Asian society. It is considered "normal" for the Chinese government to force people to behave or conform to what the masses do. Just like in Singapore, one can get arrested and jailed by posting online something that is offensive in nature to another person. No one complains about this because it is considered "normal" to crack down on actions that do not conform to the ideals of the state.

The authoritarian state is paranoid, micromanages and wants to control not only what people say, but also what they think and even what they wear and even their hair. In the 70s and 80s, long hair for males was banned in Singapore so foreigners with long hair that arrived at Singapore had to cut their hair or be repatriated.

[Woodsman]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

Why was...

I don't know VT; why do some here try to derail threads?

I tell you, it's curious to see you post stories from the Russian media. Just last summer you were accusing Putin of shooting down airliners. And anyone who differed you called a Putin/Russian apologist. It seemed to you at the time that it was impossible for one to anti-war without being "pro Russian". Until this week you pushed the State and DoD line as credulously as if you were Barry Zorthian at the Five O'Clock Follies. But now that the policy of isolation of Russia and the demonization of Putin has proved an utter failure, it's like none of it ever happened.

However you arrived at it, it's heartening to see that you've reconsidered your position.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

The other point is Ukraine is a strategic error to begin with. While everyone was focusing on Kiev, ISIL took the opportunity to slip into Mosul, just 1,500 ISIL fighters were able to chase away a 20k strong Iraqi army.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norther...28June_2014%29

To make the matter worst, there was a subsequent MSM cover up of the severity of the situation in Mosol and northern Iraq, which continued until today.

1 year after Mosul was lost, we are told that Ramadi, which is like 2hours drive from Baghdad, has fallen.

With the performance of the Iraqi army until now, which I think is worst than the Kiev's army, there's no way the coalition can save Baghdad from falling unless the US sends in tens of thousands of boots on ground to defend the city.

I suspect that Putin took the hard line stance on Ukraine by backing the separatists because he knows that the US will be scrwed by ISIL in Iraq and will come running to him for a truce and then ask for help to counter the Islamist in Iraq and Syria.

The conflict in Ukraine is in no one's national interest. It was a special interest marked to the American people. The way the state was created was in no way in anyone's national interest. A US union with Mexico would benefit neither nation as a whole since ethnic tensions would be a tool to create wedge issues to bury any real political movement. We instinctively know this. That is why Ukraine as is is nothing but a boat anchor even for Western Ukrainians. As a missile site and NATO outpost however, it will create special interest cash flows and make the owners of the local cat houses and bar near the barracks rich. That is why even though the Russian side of this is also driven by special interests, the elimination of the ethnic tensions will remove the wedge issue that suck the life out of the body politic.

Thus is was never a national strategy. It was about the creation of Kosovo like fiefs . However in that case, once again the special interest were at least somewhat in line with the national interest given the former Serbian unitary state.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/12/wo...epreneurs.html

In the case of Ukraine, the West is attempting to do this in quite the opposite manner, maintaining the ethically divided unitary state.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

The government seeks a monopoly too.

The anti-merchatilist, classical economic position makes no distinction. When the state is run by merchants in any form , it is what it is. It is clear to me the US military is a plow share in their hands. They plow over the politics of the state , and then its made fertile for corporate acquisition. It is interesting to note that our hatred of socialism is most strongly expressed at other countries while here we are half there already. I wonder if, with the arrival of China, we will change our opinion on local governments having more say over the mineral rights.

[vt]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

There is an old expression that explains international politics:

"Adversaries will find common ground against a threat that affects them both"

The current strife between religious sects in the middle east allows cooperation among major powers.

The conflict grows: (Debka is not always reliable, so await other confirmation)


Exclusive: Iranian embassy blown up in Damascus: Nusra Front suspected
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 21, 2015, 1:11 AM (IDT)

A mighty explosion struck the Iranian embassy in Damascus Wednesday night, May 20, debkafile’s exclusive intelligence and counter-terrorism sources reveal. First reports are of “heavy casualties” and serious damage to the embassy compound. The Iranian and Syrian governments have clamped a curtain of secrecy down over the disaster, although the thunder of the explosion and rush of special forces and relief teams to the scene in the Syrian capital could not be concealed.

debkafile’s sources add: The explosion has initially been attributed to the Syrian arm of al Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra. A day earlier, Tuesday, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was known to be present at the embassy building in Damascus. It is not known whether he was still there when the explosion occurred or had meanwhile departed for Tehran.

The Iranian embassy is a pivotal point for the Syrian conflict. As the Revolutionary Guards general staff center, it is the venue for the joint Iranian-Syrian military and logistic decisions taken in the conduct of the war. It also served as the Iranian command center for its operations in Lebanon, including military liaison with the Lebanese Hizballah, whose forces are fighting with Bashar Assad’s army in Syria. From there, Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani issued his war directives when he was present in the Syrian capital.
The embassy building was therefore one of the most heavily fortified and guarded premises in the Syrian capital.
Its destruction by a bomb explosion came on the heels Wednesday of the fall of the ancient city of Palmyra to the Islamic State - the second devastating blow for the Assad regime and its backers in a single day. The fate of its rare heritage sites is not the only concern. With Palmyra ((Tadmor - est. pop. 120,000), the Islamic State also gained access to important military sites, including the biggest Syrian air force base.

The disaster may be compared to the ISIS conquest in January of the northern Syrian town of Raqqa, today the Islamists’ headquarters in the country. Palmyra is the second major Arab city to fall to the group this week after the Iraqi town of Ramadi on Sunday.

For Iran, the loss of Palmyra is a major setback in the sense that it removes from Syrian military control the main air base where Iranian flights delivered war materiel for the Syrian army and Hizballah day by day."

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

Sorry, but I don't see how Ukraine will benefit the American people. Not that the American people need Ukraine's grain or corn?

In terms of military interest, I don't see how Russia is a threat to the US? Europe perhaps? But it will be foolish to think that the US still has dominance in Europe. Germany and the UK are now more economically dependent on China than the US. The Chinese and Germans are natural allies, their alliance is a close one, dating back to the time of the 19th century, even until Nazi Germany.

However, that being said, the bankers have a genuine business interest in Ukraine. They have powerful politically connected friends in Ukraine that are virtually warlords. They messed up the Middle East by condemning it to anarchy, no business thrives in such a situation, so the attention moves on the Ukraine, the last unexploited major market.

The multi-polar world is a zero-sum game. When one player scrwes up, the other players gain.

The conflict in Ukraine is in no one's national interest. It was a special interest marked to the American people. The way the state was created was in no way in anyone's national interest. A US union with Mexico would benefit neither nation as a whole since ethnic tensions would be a tool to create wedge issues to bury any real political movement. We instinctively know this. That is why Ukraine as is is nothing but a boat anchor even for Western Ukrainians. As a missile site and NATO outpost however, it will create special interest cash flows and make the owners of the local cat houses and bar near the barracks rich. That is why even though the Russian side of this is also driven by special interests, the elimination of the ethnic tensions will remove the wedge issue that suck the life out of the body politic.

Thus is was never a national strategy. It was about the creation of Kosovo like fiefs . However in that case, once again the special interest were at least somewhat in line with the national interest given the former Serbian unitary state.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/12/wo...epreneurs.html

In the case of Ukraine, the West is attempting to do this in quite the opposite manner, maintaining the ethically divided unitary state.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

Sorry, but I don't see how Ukraine will benefit the American people. Not that the American people need Ukraine's grain or corn?

In terms of military interest, I don't see how Russia is a threat to the US? Europe perhaps? But it will be foolish to think that the US still has dominance in Europe. Germany and the UK are now more economically dependent on China than the US. The Chinese and Germans are natural allies, their alliance is a close one, dating back to the time of the 19th century, even until Nazi Germany.

However, that being said, the bankers have a genuine business interest in Ukraine. They have powerful politically connected friends in Ukraine that are virtually warlords. They messed up the Middle East by condemning it to anarchy, no business thrives in such a situation, so the attention moves on the Ukraine, the last unexploited major market.

The multi-polar world is a zero-sum game. When one player scrwes up, the other players gain.

I think you misread my post entirely, Ukraine was marketed to the American is in no way a statement that it was genuinely beneficial or genuinely altruistic . The rest of my post attempts to expose it as false.


Genuinely confused.....

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

I think you misread my post entirely, Ukraine was marketed to the American is in no way a statement that it was genuinely beneficial or genuinely altruistic . The rest of my post attempts to expose it as false.

Genuinely confused.....

I've to apologize that I misread your post. I've a tendency to read too fast.

I'm starting to consider the possibility that Ukraine is actually a diversion ploy to cover up the scrwe ups in Iraq and Syria and save some face for someone.

[don]

Re: Ukraine Gas Deal

I'm starting to consider the possibility that Ukraine is actually a diversion ploy to cover up the scrwe ups in Iraq and Syria and save some face for someone.

Energy control ( the handshake guys), the dollar and the MIC override any embarrassment. Check out the attempted coup in Macedonia. As the late Telly Savalas often said, "Pipelines, baby."

[don]

Hudson on the Ukraine

Challenging Operation Vulture in Ukraine

by MICHAEL HUDSON

Ukraine’s collapse since the February 2014 coup has become an umbrella for grabitization. Collateral damage in this free-for-all has been labor. Many workers are simply not getting paid, and what they actually is being paid is often illegally low. Employers are taking whatever money is in their business accounts and squirreling it away – preferably abroad, or at least in foreign currency.

Wage arrears are getting worse, because as Ukraine approaches the eve of defaulting on its €10+ billion London debt, kleptocrats and business owners are jumping ship. They see that foreign lending has dried up and the exchange rate will plunge further. The Rada’s announcement last week that it shifted €8 billion from debt service to spend on a new military attack on the country’s eastern export region was the last straw for foreign creditors and even for the IMF. Its loans helped support the hryvnia’s exchange rate long enough for bankers, businessmen and others to take whatever money they have and as many euros or dollars as they can before the imminent collapse in June or July.

In this pre-bankruptcy situation, emptying out the store means not paying workers or other bills. Wage arrears are reported to have reached 2 billion hryvnia, owed to over half a million workers. This has led the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine to picket against the Cabinet of Ministers on Wednesday (May 27). More demonstrations are scheduled for the next two Wednesdays, June 3 and 10. According to union federation Deputy Head Serhiy Kondratiuk, “the current subsistence wage of UAH 1,218 is 60% less than the level set in Ukrainian law, which is confirmed by the calculations if the Social Policy Ministry. … the subsistence wage in the country should exceed UAH 3,500 a month, but the government refuses to hold social dialog to revise standards.” [1]

The scenario that is threatened

Emptying out Ukrainian business bank accounts will leave empty shells. With Ukraine’s economy broken, the only buyers with serious money are European and American. Selling to foreigners is thus the only way for managers and owners to get a meaningful return – paid in foreign currency safely in offshore accounts, outside of future Ukrainian clawback fines. Privatization and capital flight go together.

So does short-changing labor. The new buyers will reorganize the assets they buy, declare the old firms bankrupt and erase their wage arrears, along with any other bills that are owed. The restructured companies will claim that bankruptcy has wiped out whatever the former firms (or public enterprises) owed to workers. It is much like what corporate raiders do in the United States to wipe out pension obligations and other debts. They will claim to have to “saved” Ukrainian economy and “made it competitive.”

Operation Vulture

The Pinochet coup in Chile was a dress rehearsal for all this. The U.S.-backed military junta targeted labor leaders, journalists, and potential political leaders, as well as university professors (closing every economics department in Chile except for the Chicago “free market”-based Catholic University). You cannot have a “free market” Chicago-style, after all, without taking such totalitarian steps.

U.S. strategists like to name such ploys after predatory birds: Operation Phoenix in Vietnam, and Operation Condor in Latin America that targeted “lefties,” intellectuals and others. A similar program is underway against Ukraine’s Russian speakers. I don’t know the code word being used, so let’s call it Operation Vulture.

For labor leaders, the problem is not only to collect back wages, but to survive with a future living wage. If they refrain from protesting, they simply won’t get paid. This is why they are organizing a growing neo-Maidan protest explicitly on behalf of wage earners – so that the junta’s Right Sector snipers cannot accuse the demonstrators of being pro-Russian. The unions have protected themselves by seeking support from the UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO), and from the International Trade Union Confederation in Brussels.

The most effective tactic to tackle the corruption that is permitting the non-payment of wages and pensions is to focus on the present regime’s foreign support, especially from the IMF and EU. Using labor’s grievances as an umbrella to demand related reforms could include warnings that any sale of Ukrainian land, raw materials, public utilities or other assets to foreign buyers can be reversed by future, less corrupt governments.

In labor’s favor is the fact that the IMF has violating its Articles of Agreement by lending for military purposes. As soon as its last loan was disbursed, Poroshenko announced that he was stepping up his war against the East. This brings the IMF loan close to being what legal theorists call an Odious Debt: debts to a junta taking power and looting the government’s Treasury and other assets in the public domain, leaving future governments to pay off what has been stolen.

Labor’s fight for a living wage is not only for retroactive shortfalls, but to put in place a recovery plan to protect against the economy being treated like Greece or Latvia, neoliberal style. U.S. strategists have been discussing whether they could dismiss the $3 billion that Ukraine owes Russia this Decemb er as an “odious debt”; or, perhaps, classify it as “foreign aid” and hence not collectible in practice. Ironic as it may seem, the Peterson Institute of International Economics, George Soros and other Cold Warriors have provided future Ukrainian governments with a repertory of legal reasons to reconstitute their economy foreign-debt free – leaving the government able to pay wage and pension arrears.

The alternative is for international creditors to win the case for putting foreign bondholders, the IMF and European the IMF and European Union first, and sovereign rights to prevent self-destruction second.

Michael Hudson’s book summarizing his economic theories, “The Bubble and Beyond,” is now available in a new edition with two bonus chapters on Amazon. His latest book is Finance Capitalism and Its Discontents.

[don]

2 Bits of Consequential News?

1. from Bloomberg:

“Ukraine will miss a bond coupon payment in July, setting off a default on about $19 billion of debt, as a standoff with creditors shows no sign of abating, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc…

Ukraine is giving creditors a few weeks to accept a proposal that includes a 40 percent writedown to principal before it imposes a debt moratorium, a person familiar with the talks said on June 19.

“Ukraine will not make the July 24 coupon payment and, as a result, will enter into default at that point,” Matheny said of his base-case scenario in the report. “We do not expect the ad hoc committee to accept Ukraine’s latest restructuring proposal.” (Goldman Sees Ukraine Default in July as Debt Standoff Holds, Bloomberg)


2. Gazprom announced that it was putting the finishing touches on a massive deal that would double the amount of Russian gas flowing to Germany via a second Nord Stream pipeline.


Robert Morley explains what’s going on in a recent article at The Trumpet:

“Once this pipeline is finished, almost all of Eastern Europe can be completely cut out of the gas picture. There will be no need for any gas to transit through Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Belarus, Hungary or Slovakia.” (Gazprom’s Dangerous New Nord Stream Gas Pipeline to Germany, The Trumpet)

“Think of the huge leverage this will give Russia…..Germany may not have much in the way of natural resources of its own, but with Russia’s help, it is becoming an energy hub of Europe! Increasing quantities of Russian gas are flowing through Germany before being distributed to countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Britain. In this way Germany leverages the power of Russia. Western Europe also is becoming dependent on Germany for gas supplies too…

Don’t let the current conflict in Ukraine cloud what is happening. Germany and Russia have a history of secret cooperation—even when headline conflict appears to indicate otherwise. That Germany and Russia would push through such a deal when the West is supposedly sanctioning Russia for its actions in Ukraine speaks volumes.” (“Gazprom’s Dangerous New Nord Stream Gas Pipeline to Germany”, The Trumpet)

STRATFOR CEO George Friedman, from a recent speech he gave at The Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs.

“The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us. And to make sure that that doesn’t happen.”

And from Oil Price.com:

“Russia’s state-run gas company Gazprom says it has taken a step toward building the Turkish Stream pipeline by securing permission from Ankara to begin surveying waters of the Black Sea for the offshore leg of the project…..Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, says he expects Ankara and Moscow will sign an agreement to build Turkish Stream by the end of June.” (Controversial Gazprom Pipeline Clears Hurdle, Oil Price)

[vt]

Re: 2 Bits of Consequential News?

How World War III Became Possible

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8858909...-war-flowchart

[don]

Consequential Indeed

Saudi Arabia puts big money in Russian economy

BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR on JULY 7, 2015 in ASIA TIMES NEWS & FEATURES

The Russian news agency Sputnik has reported on an agreement signed between the Russian Direct Investment Fund [RDIF] and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia “to create a partnership to invest $10 billion into projects implemented in Russia.” The report said the Saudi funds will be invested within 4-5 years starting from this year and that seven concrete projects are “currently in the final stage”. The majority of Saudi investment will be made on Russia’s agricultural projects, as well as on medicine, logistics and the retail and real estate sectors.

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Konstantin Palace outside St. Petersburg, Russia, in June this year

This may be seen as a follow-up to the visit by the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Russia last month, who played an “immense” role of support in sealing the deal, according to a senior Russian official.

An interesting feature of the deal is that the Saudi investment vehicle will combine with other Asian sovereign wealth funds, especially the Russia-China investment Fund (which is backed by the China Investment Corporation.)

Meanwhile, the RDIF disclosed that it also signed an agreement with another Saudi Arabian sovereign-wealth fund, the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority, to undertake projects in Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries.

The Saudis are notorious for the glacial pace of their decision-making, but in this case, Mohammed bin Salman’s direct interest speeded up things. The deal committing the Saudi sovereign funds to invest such big amounts in Russia has been signed just as the Iran nuclear deal could be sailing into view in a couple of days.

Again, there are indications that Moscow and Riyadh are working on an early visit by King Salman to Russia.

It is tempting to interpret the trends as constituting a strategic defiance of the US by the Saudis. After all, the Saudis are making up to a large extent for the western banking sanctions against Russia. But a more constructive interpretation is warranted: the Saudis probably hope to make the Russians “stakeholders” in a broader “win-win” relationship that also buttresses their core interests in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.

To be sure, the Saudi-Russian investment deals cannot but be seen as a powerful signal that the Saudi-Russian rapprochement is rapidly acquiring a momentum that has the potential to reset the power dynamic in the Middle East.

One key area to be watched is Syria where Moscow and Riyadh come under pressure to harmonize their respective approaches.

Enter Iran. Syria was one of the main topics of discussion when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna last week on the sidelines of the talks between Iran and the world powers on the nuclear issue.

Lavrov’s meeting with Zarif followed immediately after the Russian minister’s discussions with the US secretary of state John Kerry in Vienna relating to Syria.

The Russian foreign ministry cited Lavrov as stressing to Kerry that “there is no alternative to a political settlement, the path to which lies in consolidated efforts by Syrian patriotic forces and the world community to combat terrorist groups that are tormenting the country and posing a serious threat to regional and international community.”

Lavrov’s usage of the phrase “consolidated efforts by Syrian patriotic forces” gives food for thought. The phrase is sufficiently broad to include the Syrian government forces. But then, Lavrov could as well have mentioned the Syrian government led by President Bashar Al-Assad and “other patriotic forces”.

During a visit to the Pentagon on Monday, President Barack Obama also called for the Syrian people to unite against the Islamic State, and flagged the need to begin the “political transition to a new government without Bashar al-Assad, a government that serves all Syrians.”

For sure, the signs are that an end game could be beginning. The core issue is that neither Russia nor Iran (or Saudi Arabia) has a road map for post-war Syria. But Russia has now come to occupy the middle ground, which enables it to engage with both Iran and Saudi Arabia in a constructive spirit.

It is entirely conceivable that there is a back-to-back Russian-American understanding shaping up in this regard. Clearly, Obama’s focus at the Pentagon yesterday was almost exclusively on fighting the Islamic State (without committing any additional US forces) and he touched on Syria only peripherally.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Consequential Indeed

I just don't know about a genuine Russian/Saudi synergy.

There's a lot of bad blood there:

Saudi money in killing Russians in Afghanistan

Saudi money in destabilizing the former Soviet Union

-----

Putin has done a long term deal with Chechnya's effective emir Kadyrov.

Kadyrov is Putin's partner in holding back militant Islam in Russia as well as Putin's proxy for solving it's deniable kinetic problems in the region(including Ukraine).

I wonder if any of this Saudi/Russian deal has to do with Kadyrov's ability to effectively undermine Saudi interests?

I wonder if any of this Saudi/Russian deal has to do with Russia's ability to enable Iran and opponents to the Saudi regime in destabilizing it?

I would suspect that this deal would include a component of taking Russia out of the business of directly/indirectly undermining Saudi's regime/interests.

A petrol station owner paying off the local mob for "fire insurance"?

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-conflict.html