Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

[touchring]

Re: Western Media

There aren't any Nazis or Communists. the Ukraine just wants freedom.

Of course, at this moment, it's just a bunch of kids that find Nazi symbols and tattoos "cool".

I know the West and the true Ukrainian nationalists are supporting these people only because they are anti-Russian and are willing to fight at the front-line (although it is clear by now they can't win the Russian rebels and terrorists by courage alone), but what would happen after the military campaigns are over?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...aine-neo-nazis

[gwynedd1]

Re: Western Media

Of course, at this moment, it's just a bunch of kids that find Nazi symbols and tattoos "cool".

I know the West and the true Ukrainian nationalists are supporting these people only because they are anti-Russian and are willing to fight at the front-line (although it is clear by now they can't win the Russian rebels and terrorists by courage alone), but what would happen after the military campaigns are over?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...aine-neo-nazis

Unfortunately Ukrainians should have learned to be more like a modern Canadian. You don't have to be an anti-Anglo-American, but a Canadian can dislike the hegemonic power of the United States. Unfortunately a bunch of Cossack's just don't have that kind of political nuance. Ya don't stage a violent coup and make Russian an unapproved language. That creates a visceral response. Russian may have even been convinced to be against the Russian hegemonic power. However once blood is spilled human nature is very basic and then Russian tribalism ruled the day. Now forget about it. The Western Ukrainians ruined their country as nothing but a cudgel on two sides of a proxy war when it should have simply been able to exact favors from both . But then they never had control of their country. Its run by oligarchs who have no national loyalties.

[touchring]

Re: Western Media

Its run by oligarchs who have no national loyalties.

That appears to be true. Up till now, Kiev is behaving more like an Oligarchy than the capital of a nation.

The oligarchs own billions of dollars of businesses and real estate in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, all of which will be lost if these states become independent/annexed by Russia.

The solution? Launch a counter-attack to retake the lost businesses and assets (territory).

At the same time, the PR and marketing departments will launch a massive PR campaign via TV, radio, newspapers.

An oligarchy is profit driven. The ends (profit) justifies any means. But when it is clear that even kamikaze tactics (by private militias) don't work, and the continuation of the war may mean further losses if more businesses and assets (territory) are taken by the competitors (rebels), it's time to negotiate, which is what is happening now.

The question now is whether Putin (the competitor) will negotiate when he has a clear upper hand?

In my opinion, Putin will begin economic retaliation against Ukraine and States that support the oligarchs such as cutting off gas supply slowly. In fact, this is already happening.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Western Media

That appears to be true. Up till now, Kiev is behaving more like an Oligarchy than the capital of a nation.

The oligarchs own billions of dollars of businesses and real estate in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, all of which will be lost if these states become independent/annexed by Russia.

The solution? Launch a counter-attack to retake the lost businesses and assets (territory).

At the same time, the PR and marketing departments will launch a massive PR campaign via TV, radio, newspapers.

An oligarchy is profit driven. The ends (profit) justifies any means. But when it is clear that even kamikaze tactics (by private militias) don't work, and the continuation of the war may mean further losses if more businesses and assets (territory) are taken by the competitors (rebels), it's time to negotiate, which is what is happening now.

The question now is whether Putin (the competitor) will negotiate when he has a clear upper hand?

In my opinion, Putin will begin economic retaliation against Ukraine and States that support the oligarchs such as cutting off gas supply slowly. In fact, this is already happening.

Putin may also be weening is own country from gas for European luxury. I have yet to see petroleum exportation lead to long term success. I refer to it often, Dutch disease. Putin can try to ramp up the local industries. Its exactly what the US did .The US did not "open up trade" and privatize everything in site. They fought trade wars with Europe. The only missing piece might be the Russians who are not proven capitalists.

[Polish_Silver]

Ukraine's economic Quagmire

Unfortunately Ukrainians should have learned to be more like a modern Canadian. . . .Its run by oligarchs who have no national loyalties.

There was an "expert" talking on the BBC about a month ago. He explained that, since 1989, Poland has tripled it's real economic output. Meanwhile, Ukraine has barely budged it's output. This will give some chuckles to Poland observers, since the successive governments, ranging (and raging) from anti-communist to socialist, seemed to be auditioning for "Keystone Cops, The Movie". Most of the parties flung grandiose slogans appealing to particular groups (coal miners, farmers, Catholics, Nationalists/anti-Russians), but had little to offer in terms of public policy, other than handouts. Inspite of (or because of?) this governmental paralysis, Poles got to work bringing in western businesses and starting their own high tech ventures.

The expert explained that the Ukrainian governments, whether tilting towards Berlin or Moscow, where proficient only at enriching themselves at public expense.

This situation is well described in the book "Why Nations Fail."

I think Ukraine should consider whether or not they can "win". If not, cut losses and accept that Russia will control the eastern part of the country. The western part can then concentrate on building ties with the west.

It is not good to be next to Russia. Ask someone from the Baltic States.
Poles are worried, but actually much more secure than Ukrainians: Poland is in the EU and Nato, but not using the Euro. Big Border with Germany, but only a small one with Russia (Kaliningrad) .

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

If not, cut losses and accept that Russia will control the eastern part of the country. The western part can then concentrate on building ties with the west.

Can this actually work?

Firstly, much of the core industries, gas and coal mines are in Donbass. Will the "West" back Kiev without the promised jewels?

Secondly, it is doubtful that the militias now armed with heavy weaponry and tanks will agree to letting Russia take Donbass after so many of them have died. There's a real possibility of a second Maiden if this happens and this second Maiden could well take the civil war into Kiev.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...aine-neo-nazis

... The Azov have been partially brought into the military and officially function as a special police unit. There are discussions that Azov and other battalions could be integrated into the army or special forces when the conflict is over.Some of them, however, are hoping Ukraine will look very different in the not-so-distant future. And while they may be a tiny minority when it comes to Ukraine as a whole, they have a lot of weapons.

President Petro Poroshenko will be killed in a matter of months, Dmitry said, and a dictator will come to power.

"What are the police going to do? They could not do anything against the peaceful protesters on Maidan; they are hardly going to withstand armed fighting units."

I'd bet that Putin knows that Kiev won't be able to control the now heavily armed militias, so he pressed for a ceasefire. These militias will end up marching to Kiev if they can't fight the separatists.

When this happens, the Pro-Russian separatists can drive into Mariupol without any resistance.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

Can this actually work?

Firstly, much of the core industries, gas and coal mines are in Donbass. Will the "West" back Kiev without the promised jewels?

. . .

When this happens, the Pro-Russian separatists can drive into Mariupol without any resistance.

I didn't know the mineral wealth is in the eastern part of the country. That may be the real reason Putin wants it.

I agree that the west is (unfortunately) lacking motivation to help Ukraine. But there may be ways of helping them which I am unaware of. It was quite different when Poland joined the EU and Nato. Germany was pushing hard to have a secure buffer state between itself and the Russian bloc. Poland is in the corresponding position regarding Ukraine, but without the economic and political clout.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

I didn't know the mineral wealth is in the eastern part of the country. That may be the real reason Putin wants it.

The reason only Putin wants it? Putin and everyone else which is why Western business interests are all over it. . Its the sort of typical human catastrophe that develops when its not the locals who can secure it.

I agree that the west is (unfortunately) lacking motivation to help Ukraine. But there may be ways of helping them which I am unaware of. It was quite different when Poland joined the EU and Nato. Germany was pushing hard to have a secure buffer state between itself and the Russian bloc. Poland is in the corresponding position regarding Ukraine, but without the economic and political clout.

Its not cost effective to help Ukraine in any sort of hot war.

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

I didn't know the mineral wealth is in the eastern part of the country. That may be the real reason Putin wants it.

Definitely, but ironically, this is one of the few things that both sides would agree on - both Ukraine and Russia don't want their citizens to know that they're fighting over resources.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

Definitely, but ironically, this is one of the few things that both sides would agree on - both Ukraine and Russia don't want their citizens to know that they're fighting over resources.

That is because none of the citizens is going to get any of it other than the glory of battle. Medals are cheap, and profit sharing is expensive.

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

That is because none of the citizens is going to get any of it other than the glory of battle. Medals are cheap, and profit sharing is expensive.

This maybe true if Kiev is actually in charge.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...ts-364494.html

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

That is because none of the citizens is going to get any of it other than the glory of battle. Medals are cheap, and profit sharing is expensive.

You might want to consider the process of demobilization of non-state actors(ie guerilla groups) in conflicts.

It's not cheap.

[santafe2]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

It is not good to be next to Russia...

Especially when that nation starts making noise about joining NATO. That's the core issue here. Ukraine and the EU kept poking the bear with a sharp stick. That was a horrible strategy.

There was a little country just off the shore of the US that decided in the early 60s to join with the Russians. We were ready to start WW III over that one. The Russians are giving the world a geography lesson and unless we and the Europeans want a war over Ukraine, we'd better take history lesson and back off.

[touchring]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

You might want to consider the process of demobilization of non-state actors(ie guerilla groups) in conflicts.

It's not cheap.

Applies to East Ukraine as well.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ukraine's economic Quagmire

Applies to East Ukraine as well.

Absolutely......

The cost of demobilizing a formal military organization port conflict has some big bills attached(healthcare/retraining/pensions).

The cost of demobilizing irregular proxy forces(possibly from BOTH sides) can be even more expensive as they represent more than just a cost centre but the potential for political interference and competition post conflict.

That's why you see the leadership of demobilized irregular proxy forces so often bought out and politically neutered or integrated by negotiation into the post conflict power structure at a level commensurate with their leverage for those that have it.