Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

[Polish_Silver]

Ukraine's future

An even better analogy is helping your neighbor set their own backyard on fire. 15 years ago I would have not questioned the basic paradigm that the Soviet ways were oppressive and the West free. Russia with its open borders and more civil liberties is less ostensibly oppressive. And since my discovery of the West's more blatant theft of other nation's national resources ,it appears the West is far less a the liberator it was apparently before. I don't think Russia was doing Ukraine a whole lot of good. The problem is I don't see much of an economic future for Ukraine either way. Show me the plan and proof to revive the PIIGS and I would be a little more convinced that there is a lesser evil. And even worse for Ukraine is it would just become a NATO military outpost.

Being in Nato was much better than being in the Warsaw Pact. Just compare the living standards and environmental standards of the two Germanies. Nato is a military organization. Since Ukraine would be the new eastern frontier soldiers would be stationed there. That would be an economic boon to Ukraine, with all the foreign currency coming in.

The problem is, the cost/benefit to Nato and EU isn't favorable for including Ukraine. The countries economy has been badly mismanaged/robbed by all the governments since 1990, whether leaning east or west. Compare that to Poland, whose governments seemed to be auditioning for Keystone cops films, yet the real GDP tripled in the same time.

Poland is glad to be in Nato, glad to be in the EU, and glad not to be in the Euro. Merkel is an idiot for insisting on the Euro so much. Typical case of centralized planning not working. But that's what you'd expect from somebody who grew up in East Germany.

[Polish_Silver]

Oil and India's Nukes

I would posit the world IS more dangerous now, for a few reasons:

1)We are closer to that ugly point where energy demand from growing 1st/2nd/3rd/4th world countries exceeds available supply. And while I'm confident we will discover "what comes next", I have zero confidence "what comes next" will not occur before we see significant economic/political/social disruption and associated conflict risk in that awkward transition period.

So potentially we have the biggest pending energy price volatility/unpredictability looming on the horizon.

. . .

4)Lack of "time and space" between India/Pakistan as well as North Korea/South Korea.

The aforementioned Cuban Missile Crisis of the Cold War led to dedicated resources/control measures to make the most of that time/space and mitigate accident risk, particularly in terms of direct communications and nuclear weapons control.

Pakistan/India/North Korea do NOT possess the same level of direct communications and nuclear weapons controls as possessed by the US/USSR. It is my understanding the US has played(and paid) a role in improving this situation since 2001, but the one thing that will NEVER change is the lack of time/space due to the tyranny of distance(or the lack of it between likely combatants).

The OODA Loop(Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) is so incredibly short and nuclear arsenals are so small as to increase risk of a possible first strike success in destroying the opponent's entire nuclear counterstrike capability, that I would rate the use of a nuclear weapon in our lifetimes far more likely than during the US/USSR Cold War.
... .

The biggest oil importing nations are Japan, Western Europe, and the US. Japan and Europe are not acting very warlike. The US has shown aggressive behavior, but Obama's election seems to mean a reversal. Russia is acting aggressive, but they are the ones who have the oil. Some possible danger from China. But China is building lots of nuclear reactors.

As for India, their weapons are a threat to Pakistan, but not the US or Europe. There is some possibility of a rogue group or state getting nukes, but that was also present in the cold war. Cuba did not follow Soviet protocols with the tactical nukes, but kept them in a much more hair trigger state. China tried to get Soviet nukes and re-start the Korean war. It didn't happen, so nobody talks about it.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

I think you are saying that the US and UK anticipated conflict with the Soviet Union. Well, the SU started out being an ally of Nazi Germany, during which time they conquered eastern Poland, the Baltic states, and eastern Finland. It was only logical to think of the SU as the next enemy, especially given Russia's ideology and track record.

[touchring]

Re: Oil and India's Nukes

The biggest oil importing nations are Japan, Western Europe, and the US. Japan and Europe are not acting very warlike. The US has shown aggressive behavior, but Obama's election seems to mean a reversal. Russia is acting aggressive, but they are the ones who have the oil. Some possible danger from China. But China is building lots of nuclear reactors.

As for India, their weapons are a threat to Pakistan, but not the US or Europe. There is some possibility of a rogue group or state getting nukes, but that was also present in the cold war. Cuba did not follow Soviet protocols with the tactical nukes, but kept them in a much more hair trigger state. China tried to get Soviet nukes and re-start the Korean war. It didn't happen, so nobody talks about it.

To me, the biggest danger to world peace is how the Allies will react if Europe (including Russia) starts to look East. In fact, it's already happening, all this Ukraine trouble is a reaction to Putin's look east policy.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Oil and India's Nukes

The biggest oil importing nations are Japan, Western Europe, and the US. Japan and Europe are not acting very warlike. The US has shown aggressive behavior, but Obama's election seems to mean a reversal. Russia is acting aggressive, but they are the ones who have the oil. Some possible danger from China. But China is building lots of nuclear reactors.

As for India, their weapons are a threat to Pakistan, but not the US or Europe. There is some possibility of a rogue group or state getting nukes, but that was also present in the cold war. Cuba did not follow Soviet protocols with the tactical nukes, but kept them in a much more hair trigger state. China tried to get Soviet nukes and re-start the Korean war. It didn't happen, so nobody talks about it.

Western Europe took the very clear lead in Libya, albeit the US was absolutely essential to support NATO states with the resources that were not organic to their individual force projection capabilities.

The US was like an Academy Award winner in a supporting role.

I think Russia's behavior is a clear indicator of what happens when a power void(US global geopolitical retrenchment) is created and what can fill it.

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I would agree that India's nuclear weapons represent a threat to Pakistan, and to a lesser extent, China.

Pakistan's nukes, in my opinion, represent a genuine threat to the planet.

I would rate rogue states or Non State Actors gaining access to a nuclear weapon was a good bit lower in the Cold War, even though inventories were FAR higher(most have been destroyed and turned into commercial nuclear reactor fuel) due to fewer owners and quite robust control measures(after a few accidents and close calls).

My thought is that if Pakistan and India were to go to the brink again(inevitable), that the lack of time/space compared to previous US/Soviet brinksmanship episodes, then the risk of nuclear weapons use is higher due to the drastically reduced time/space and the much smaller nuclear weapons stockpiles which makes the possibility/belief that a first strike might successfully eliminate the opponents nuclear counterforce.

A couple nuclear weapons detonated is not going to end the world(god knows there were enough atmospheric tests way back in the day...including some truly huge boosted multistage hydrogen bombs.

Would India and Pakistan knocked back a generation or two, the possibility of it cascading into China and knocking them back a bit, and reduced energy demand taking away Russian/GCC leverage, combined with a flight to safety in the dollar would possibly benefit the US, no?

Assuming there are no unintended consequences....which there always are.

[touchring]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Would India and Pakistan knocked back a generation or two, the possibility of it cascading into China and knocking them back a bit, and reduced energy demand taking away Russian/GCC leverage, combined with a flight to safety in the dollar would possibly benefit the US, no?

Assuming there are no unintended consequences....which there always are.

Such as ISIS? Rather than spending on time on intrigues, isn't it better to invest in alternative energy sources and reduce the dependency on oil?

[don]

Western Media

Putin “ignores” and walks away when he got a question from a British journalist about Russian involvement in the situation in Ukraine.


Putin is not ignoring the question of the British BBC journalist John Sweeney.

[touchring]

Re: Western Media

Russians invading Mariupol caught on camera! Warning: a little graphic.

[don]

Re: Western Media

This looked like an old video, back in the early stages of the coup.

An English translated comment from the YouTube sight:

granilux

4 months ago

Nazi regime from Kiev, which came to power after revolution and exile of the lawful president, has sent so called "National guard", which mostly consists of members of ukranian nazi party "Right sector". They needed very fast create such a guard, because the common soldiers of ukranian army didn't want to shoot and kill innocent people of eastern and southern regions. This is the town of Mariupol, and here you can see how the troops of National guard is seizing the office of local police and shooting at common people of the town some of them are being killed and many were being wounded.


Appears to be at odds with the Ruskie invasion spin.

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...sian-wolf.html

[vt]

Re: Western Media

There aren't any Nazis or Communists. the Ukraine just wants freedom.

[Woodsman]

Re: Western Media

There aren't any Nazis or Communists. the Ukraine just wants freedom.

I don't think there are any Russians
And there ain't no Yanks
Just corporate criminals
Playing with tanks

[vt]

Re: Western Media

There are definitely Russians; they don't live in Russia, they live in Ukraine.

And some Oligarchs from both sides.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Such as ISIS? Rather than spending on time on intrigues, isn't it better to invest in alternative energy sources and reduce the dependency on oil?

I reckon a national effort, covert(Manhattan Project) or overt(Apollo moonshot), is worth the substantial price to invest in it wisely and focused on the long-term.

DARPA has had a fair bit of success, maybe it could help to hub(maybe along with NASA?) the development of alternative/sustainable energy storage/recovery research and commercialization in partnership with universities and the venture capital/private equity industries?

I remember the tailend echo effect of the Apollo Moon Shot as a kid. You could tangibly feel the enthusiasm/pride and shared success of national achievement.

What an absolutely incredible effort.

"If I was President" I'd be trying to use my mass media halo effect and some advise from Saachi and Saachi to rally the country around renewed Freedom and Independence that can be gained from ultra efficient 100-200mpg personal vehicles, energy neutral-ish homes and commercial buildings, and personally ignoring sports/entertainment idols in favor of inventors/small business owners in future focused industries.

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As far as intrigue goes....I've picked India/Pakistan specifically because of the existing(and future) high risk that is simply further accelerated by fairly substantial and quite fast changes to relative political/economic/military power structures.

Failing to pull India/Pakistan back from the brink again(an act of omission) is a much easier and far less overtly aggressive policy decision than hands on kinetic destabilization.

While that might fall well outside the comfort zone of destabilization(excessive) for entrenched special interests, would it fall outside the comfort zone of a malignant populist?

[Polish_Silver]

New Energy Paradigm

I reckon a national effort, covert(Manhattan Project) or overt(Apollo moonshot), is worth the substantial price to invest in it wisely and focused on the long-term.

DARPA has had a fair bit of success, maybe it could help to hub(maybe along with NASA?) the development of alternative/sustainable energy storage/recovery research and commercialization in partnership with universities and the venture capital/private equity industries?

. . .?

Both the Manhattan project and the Apollo program were much simpler than the development of economical renewable energy, particularly liquid fuel.

The governments (and corporations) of the world have been researching energy technology for decades. Most of it is a dead end. A great deal has been spent on hydrogen fusion, and yet no one even knows what a practical fusion reactor would look like.

There are few really new ideas. Most of the progress is in incremental improvements of efficiency. Many of the really new ideas, such as novel nuclear reactor designs, are political mine fields.

It's possible that wind power could be expanded somewhat, but that will not compensate for losing oil.

Instead of a crash program in "renewable energy" we could work for expanded subways or high speed rail.

The problems in the middle east stem as much from poverty and religious extremism as they do from oil.