Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

[Woodsman]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Interesting. I assumed a Fortress America policy would be beneficial for the US and act as a bullish counterweight to the bearish ending of the asset price inflation era. Will we find out more about this "negative fallout" in your upcoming article?

As always, thanks for your rigorous work in producing such excellent content.

Worse than WWII? That's a bold statement and begs a follow-up, I agree.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Negative fallout from Fortress America policy. Of the previous flavors of U.S. isolationism over the centuries, this one will prove the most disastrous. That is, worse than WWII.

Do you believe that the war is finally coming, as forecasted in your article "There will be blood"?

My point of view, as an european, is that Putin's behaviour shows striking similarities with the behaviour of Hitler previous to the beginning of WWII.

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...bea_story.html

The question is: If Putin gets statehood for eastern Ukraine, will that be the end of it?

The fear is that there will be a repeat in the Baltic states and/or the rest of Ukraine. Is statehood for eastern Ukraine enough for the pro Russian posters?
Or does all of Ukraine have to fall under Russian control?

[don]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

and in related news, albeit outside the field marshall's purview, is Hudson's Ukrainian debt update . . .

[touchring]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...bea_story.html

The question is: If Putin gets statehood for eastern Ukraine, will that be the end of it?

The fear is that there will be a repeat in the Baltic states and/or the rest of Ukraine. Is statehood for eastern Ukraine enough for the pro Russian posters?
Or does all of Ukraine have to fall under Russian control?

The question is - after overthrowing the previous government backed by Russia, is the West willing to back Kiev by pouring in the hundred billion dollars required to fix the Ukrainian economy and de-arm the "private militias"?

If not, Ukraine will just be another Iraq, Syria and Libya, broken by infighting and militias....

[EJ]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Interesting. I assumed a Fortress America policy would be beneficial for the US and act as a bullish counterweight to the bearish ending of the asset price inflation era. Will we find out more about this "negative fallout" in your upcoming article?

As always, thanks for your rigorous work in producing such excellent content.

The current period of U.S. isolationism that I refer to as Fortress America is a collection of economic, military, and political policies that is as much imposed by events as by choice. Fortress America was imposed on the U.S. by the world as a result loss of credibility largely due to military failure in Iraq and the American Financial Crisis, from which Europe and the rest of the world have yet to recover.

These events vastly diminished U.S. political power as the U.S. came to be viewed as unreliable politically, militarily, and economically. With respect to timing, Fortress America policies started in 2007 when the jury of international and domestic opinion on the Iraq War was in. Policy implementation accelerated and expanded after the AFC 2008 to 2009. Ivy League Think Tanks had devised a set of policies to make lemonade out of lemons: pursue economic and energy policy to play on the U.S. differentiators of domestic energy abundance and capital safe-haven status; even if the AFC fuels economic and political instability elsewhere in the world, perversely this makes the U.S. more economically and politically stable on a relative basis. Interest rate policy has been largely about supplying capital to the energy industry and attracting foreign investment. The positive results can be seen in capital inflows, the trade deficit and the budget deficit.

However, U.S. enemies have think tanks, too. ISIS while appearing to come out of nowhere this year grew out of the realization by former Iraqi military leadership that the U.S. was in the wake of the Iraq fiasco and AFC in no position to play a role in Syria to prevent the formation and growth of an disciplined and organized ideological, economic and military force. As during previous episodes of U.S. isolationism, the enemies of freedom and democracy consolidate and grow their power.

After being left to their own devices for fives years now ISIS has what any military planner hopes for: momentum. The stronger ISIS becomes, the stronger ISIS shall become. We will see ISIS in Pakistan and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Obama states in public that the U.S. has no ISIS strategy, as if this fact was not apparent.

For Europe, already vulnerable to the threat of radical islamic movements, the recession and rise in unemployment that the AFC caused was the catalyst to turn the "if" of a mass radical Islamic movement in Europe into a "when."

There is no way to predict just how quickly and deeply global political stability will devolve without the U.S. as a mitigating force, but I expect that due to the power of social media and other Internet-based collective communications tools that the process that took from 1930 to 1939 may be considerably accelerated and could be half-way along or further toward a major re-orientation of the balance between democratic and despotic powers.

[EJ]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Do you believe that the war is finally coming, as forecasted in your article "There will be blood"?

My point of view, as an european, is that Putin's behaviour shows striking similarities with the behaviour of Hitler previous to the beginning of WWII.

The lesson of WWII was this: Never permit a single man to gain unchecked national political and military power.

No more Hitlers, Mussolinis, Maos, or Tojos. Political reforms, largely imposed by the U.S. after the war, were designed to prevent a repeat of the rise of power of the unchecked national leader in Europe and Japan. China learned the lesson later and in a mind-bogglingly costly way, and addressed it in Chinese fashion. Today the country is run by technocrats who report to a power elite.

Russia is a special case and Putin is teaching the lesson to the world all over again. Putin, after identifying a lack of will and leadership in the U.S. worked out a plan to externalize domestic political and economic failings by chipping away at NATO power and influence.

The world for its part is repeating old mistakes by empowering Putin with sanctions that punish the Russian people economically en masse. They do not see economic hardship due to sanctions as caused by Putin -- an abstract idea -- but arising from the outside where the policies can be directly observed.

We shall see how far Europe's leadership is willing to go to thwart Putin in Ukraine once winter arrives and Putin turns the gas supply value that controls Germany's legislature.

[verdo]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

There is no way to predict just how quickly and deeply global political stability will devolve without the U.S. as a mitigating force, but I expect that due to the power of social media and other Internet-based collective communications tools that the process that took from 1930 to 1939 may be considerably accelerated and could be half-way along or further toward a major re-orientation of the balance between democratic and despotic powers.

Frankly, i find it kind of sad that the whole world should devolve into disarray and barbarism solely because the U.S. isn't around to play cops and robbers anymore. Are other nations really this incapable? Sure, no one nation may be as strong as the U.S., but alliances can be made for these sorts of things. It's just a depressing thought

[touchring]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

However, U.S. enemies have think tanks, too. ISIS while appearing to come out of nowhere this year grew out of the realization by former Iraqi military leadership that the U.S. was in the wake of the AFC in no position to play a role in Syria to prevent the formation and growth of an disciplined and organized ideological, economic and military force. As during previous episodes of U.S. isolationism, the enemies of freedom and democracy consolidate and grow their power.

EJ very well said, I've always believed that Islamic extremism is the biggest threat.

The Ukraine crisis is what I call shooting on one's foot. Why is the West doing such a stupid thing? Covering up for MH17 is even more silly as most people outside of the US and EU already knows who did it and you can't hide the truth forever.

The only explanation that I can think of is to create a "Good (Ukraine) against Evil (Putin)" soap drama to divert public attention from failures in the Middle East. Of course, now we know that this strategy failed as ISIS grew too fast to be hidden from public view.

[EJ]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Frankly, i find it kind of sad that the whole world should devolve into disarray and barbarism solely because the U.S. isn't around to play cops and robbers anymore. Are other nations really this incapable? Sure, no one nation may be as strong as the U.S., but alliances can be made for these sorts of things. It's just a depressing thought

The current problem of multi-polar global power imbalance can be traced to the defeat of the Soviet empire by the west in the early 1990s, after which an unstable U.S. dominated uni-polar arrangement arose out of a more balanced bi-polar system. As a logical development of unchecked power in a uni-polar world, in the early 2000s the U.S. over-stepped its role with a unilateral ill-fated invasion of Iraq. Subsequently the U.S. retrenched and a highly unstable multi-polar global power regime developed in the power void that retrenchment created. A multi-polar world will spawn more men like Putin and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who will seize on a lack of political will, and economic and military power, among fractured world powers to check their ambitions. Global power will logically devolve in the direction of multi-polar conflict and disorder, finally rationalized by a stalemate between alliance blocks backed by either the U.S. or China as a new bi-polar regime emerges after a period of ferocious proxy wars.

[sutro]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

The current problem of multi-polar global power imbalance can be traced to the defeat of the Soviet empire by the west in the early 1990s, after which an unstable U.S. dominated uni-polar arrangement arose out of a more balanced bi-polar system. As a logical development of unchecked power in a uni-polar world, in the early 2000s the U.S. over-stepped its role with a unilateral ill-fated invasion of Iraq. Subsequently the U.S. retrenched and a highly unstable multi-polar global power regime developed in the power void that retrenchment created. A multi-polar world will spawn more men like Putin and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who will seize on a lack of political will, and economic and military power, among fractured world powers to check their ambitions. Global power will logically devolve in the direction of multi-polar conflict and disorder, finally rationalized by a stalemate between alliance blocks backed by either the U.S. or China as a new bi-polar regime emerges after a period of ferocious proxy wars.

Proxy wars don't seem more disasterous than WWII which killed over 60 million people.

[icm63]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

EJ

The defense of the US dollar is not a clean war.

Germany moving away from the US and Nato pack
- Hurt by US designed sanctions on Russia
- Looking at going with the BRIC nations for business and not Anglo Saxon (US and UK) ones.
- Does not want ECB debt issues. Germany has not paid $1 dollar to ECB

News that may be front page very soon
- Black Water (US backed) solders captured by East Ukraine
- European backed Special Forces are assisting the East Ukraine (French and German
- West Ukraine not squeaky clean about MH17 shooting down (Germany may leak this news in their papers)

In a currency war, the country (or group of countries) that have the worst balance sheet always loses!

- The US and UK have balance sheet packed with massive leverage (including derivative contracts)
- Germany main bank (DB) has massive derivatives as well, but there is fewer banks in Germany in this state, plus the BRIC nations as economic support is a better bet for business and recovery than the Anglo Saxon countries on any serious down swing.

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civiliza.../dp/1451628978

[goadam1]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Don't leave out other horsemen of the apocalypse, like plague and famine.

China helps ebola stricken liberia;
http://www.liberianobserver.com/comm...and-friendship

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Frankly, i find it kind of sad that the whole world should devolve into disarray and barbarism solely because the U.S. isn't around to play cops and robbers anymore. Are other nations really this incapable? Sure, no one nation may be as strong as the U.S., but alliances can be made for these sorts of things. It's just a depressing thought

The world has changed considerably in the last 25 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.

NATO forces(as well as non-aligned but quietly allied countries likes Sweden and Finland), minus the US, used to possess an absolutely staggering level of military capability.

This was due to a need to counter equally staggering Soviet/Warsaw Pact military capability.

The vast majority of this capability was eliminated in the "peace dividend", and while much of it was not exactly perfectly tailored to partner with the US in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, the remnants of it did participate.

And that's what we're talking about.....Cold War remnants(crumbs really) with a patchwork of some updated new capabilities tailored more closely towards more recent threats.

But overall head count has been dramatically slashed, and in some respects(conventional combined arms conflict and power projection) real capability has been dramatically slashed. They have all kinds of fancy platinum plated military kit, but very little of it compared to the Cold War.

EJ raises a great point about EU/NATO impotency come winter, I've often used the following video as a cheeky analog:

Tina Turner is NATO/EU(Angela Merkel?), Master Blaster midget is Putin

While I was(and remain) a fan of Reagan, I'm also a realist and far better understand his culpable role in where we are at today in the long time horizon macro sense. He was one of the guilty in putting us where we are today....both good, and quite bad.

But Reagan Administration policy was a bit prescient(and helps partially explain NATO/Western European foreign policy today):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy...gorod_pipeline

Did the Cold War ever actually end? Or was it just on pause for a few decades?

Western European political/economic/military capacity to deal with Ukraine seems to be at near impotency.

Western European/NATO ability to deal(right/wrong, ethical/unethical) with Libya from a clinical perspective was extremely limited.

Western Europe/NATO were completely unable to project force into Libya without massive support from the US(acting as the entire supporting cast of that production).

And Libya was as "easy" as it gets as far as foreign intervention and/or destabilization goes from a strategic/operational/tactical perspective given Libya's relative topography, demographics and other vulnerabilities/opportunities to such actions.

France, for example, is now deeply entrenched in West Africa as a direct consequence of blowback from Libya.

The only military capability that NATO/Western Europe possesses that is really relevant to this irregular/asymmetric/unconventional "less than war" environment we are currently living in is their highly capable special operations forces honed over the last 13 years.

But we're only talking about several hundred people per country and their ability to influence events(and what type of events they can influence is far from unlimited) can range from considerable to inconsequential.

So when you fact in 1st world Western Europe/Non US NATO and Scandanavia's falling under increasing Russian economic/energy influence with their declining military capability their relative political will and power will also potentially see a dramatic decline.

I see increasing 1st world Western European geopolitical impotency(due to their declining relative economic and military power) with maybe the exception of the ability to combine/partner(out of absolute necessity) in developing influence/control over Libya to counter excessive Russian influence over energy access to Western Europe.

Western Europe is potentially at serious risk of being marginalized.

Just my 0.02c