Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

[Woodsman]

Re: Whitney's Geo-political Take

I get the first three, not sure where the excess of democracy comes in.

And no, academics only get to formulate policy when it coincides with real power interests.

That's Sam Huntington's baby.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crisis_of_Democracy

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

We can certainly understand Russia's fear of encirclement:

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ge...anent-struggle

However Europe is no threat to Russia, and the United States only had troops there to protect Europe from further USSR invasion. Please recall the crushing of dissent in Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Also the Berlin Wall stands as a testament of Soviet desire to conquer just like the Nazis.

The invasion and annexation of Crimea is a recent case in point. One can understand Putin's concern about having a Black Sea port. But the rest of the Ukraine should be of limits, as well as the Baltic States, Poland, and any other European country.
Hungary is loosely aligned with Russia, which is certainly their right.

The key point is that the U.S. and Europe don't want to invade Russia; they only want Russia to recognize their neighbors sovereignty.

On another topic:

"excess democracy"?? There is no excess anywhere. Central governments have too much control and bureaucracy, which impeded economic growth.

[Raz]

Re: Whitney's Geo-political Take

• This problem did not begin in November 2013 or in 2008, this problem began in 1990's when the Clinton administration adopted a "winner-takes-all" policy towards post-Soviet Russia.
• Next to NATO expansion, the US adopted a form of a negotiation policy called "selective cooperation" - Russia gives, the US takes.
• There is not a single example of any major concession or reciprocal agreement that the US offered Russia in return for what it has received since the 90s.
• This policy has been pursued by every president and every US Congress, from President Clinton to President Obama.
• The US is entitled to a global sphere of influence, but Russia is not entitled to any sphere of influence at all, not even in Georgia or Ukraine.
• For 20 years Russia was excluded from the European security system. NATO expansion was a pivot of this security system and it was directed against Russia.
• Putin started as a pro-Western leader, he wanted partnership with the US, provided helping hand after 9/11 and saved many American lives in Afghanistan.
• In return he got more NATO expansion and unilateral abolition of the existing missile treaty on which all Russian security was based.
• Putin is not anti-Western, or as Khodorkovsky said, he is more European than 99 percent of Russians. He has become less pro-Western and particularly less pro-American.
• Since November 2013, Putin has became not aggressive but reactive. For this he has been criticized in circles in Moscow as an appeaser (that is, soft, not tough enough).
• There is ongoing extraordinary irrational and nonfactual demonization of Putin.

+1.

This man is absolutely correct - in every single point.
We are being led by warmongering fools of insufferable arrogance and stupendous ignorance, who're influenced (bought and paid for) by men of criminal intent.

I have watched Fox news for years because they at least offered an opposing view from the Left.
Not any more - when it comes to Putin.

This could not only end badly - it could put an end to everything.

[don]

Re: Whitney's Geo-political Take

This could not only end badly - it could put an end to everything.

+1

[Woodsman]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Stratfor is bunk.

The group's reputation among foreign policy writers, analysts, and practitioners is poor; they are considered a punchline more often than a source of valuable information or insight. As a former recipient of their "INTEL REPORTS" (I assume someone at Stratfor signed me up for a trial subscription, which appeared in my inbox unsolicited), what I found was typically some combination of publicly available information and bland "analysis" that had already appeared in the previous day's New York Times. A friend who works in intelligence once joked that Stratfor is just The Economist a week later and several hundred times more expensive. As of 2001, a Stratfor subscription could cost up to $40,000 per year.

It's true that Stratfor employs on-the-ground researchers. They are not spies. On today's Wikileaks release, one Middle East-based NGO worker noted on Twitter that when she met Stratfor's man in Cairo, he spoke no Arabic, had never been to Egypt before, and had to ask her for directions to Tahrir Square. Stratfor also sometimes pays "sources" for information. Wikileaks calls this "secret cash bribes," hints that this might violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and demands "political oversight."

Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously

Its biggest talent is fooling customers to think they're getting something unique for their money. They're not.

Unfortunately after all this time as a low-level subscriber, Stratfor has never given me the inside running on a story. Not even once.

Nor, during my years travelling for Foreign Correspondent, have I ever seen evidence that Stratfor's big corporate clients, who pay many thousands of dollars for their subscriptions, received insights they couldn't have gleaned if they were avid readers of Britain's Economist, the august US journal Foreign Affairs, or the excellent Australian foreign policy blog, The Interpreter.

Stratfor's real talent lies in marketing to corporate America.

Confessions of a Stratfor subscriber

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Holy cow! Don't worry about a source; it's history not politics.

This has nothing to do with Stratfor! I fully agree that Russia has a right to be concerned with strong powers on their borders. This shows the history of invasions INTO Russia.

Russia, Europe, and the U.S. need to agree to freeze current borders so Russia and it's neighbors can feel secure,

[Woodsman]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Holy cow! Don't worry about a source; it's history not politics.

This has nothing to do with Stratfor! I fully agree that Russia has a right to be concerned with strong powers on their borders. This shows the history of invasions INTO Russia.

Russia, Europe, and the U.S. need to agree to freeze current borders so Russia and it's neighbors can feel secure,

Holy cow! If you think it's not politics, then what else can we say to each other here? You're busy, I'm busy...

[don]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Meanwhile, down where the rubber meets the road . . . .


Oligarchs and their "Pocket Armies" Take Over Oil Company in Kiev; Ukraine Begs for More Money; Three-Way Civil War?



Ukraine Begs for More Money

The IMF foolishly agreed to give Ukraine a four-year $40 billion bailout on March 12. Already, Ukraine's Finance Minister Begs for More Money.

Natalie Jaresko told the Financial Times in an interview that a four-year, $40bn, IMF-led bailout finalised this month — including restructuring $15bn of debt — was enough to stabilise the financial and banking system. But that was a “first step”.

Ukraine needed billions more to restart growth, rebuild shattered infrastructure, and deal with the effects of the eastern conflict that has killed at least 6,000 people, wounded 15,000 and displaced more than a million.

“I believe strongly that the G7, and frankly speaking the broader G20, has a responsibility now to support Ukraine in a much bigger way financially,” Ms Jaresko said.

Interesting Debate

“I end up hearing this burden-sharing argument between different parties. The Americans say the Europeans should do more, the Europeans say the Americans should do more. That’s an interesting debate, but no one’s paying a greater cost than the Ukrainian people,” said Jaresko.

Yes, it is an interesting debate. But missing form the debate is a Ukraine civil war that is still ongoing. Money to rebuild shattered infrastructure will do no such thing. Instead it will go for more war-mongering.

Money will also go straight into the pockets of the corrupt officials running the country and the corrupt oligarchs battling to take over the country.

Oligarch Takes Over Oil Company in Kiev

The battle over what's left of Ukraine has now reached Kiev with the takeover of oil company Ukrnafta by oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and his private army.

Please consider Poroshenko Warns Rival Over ‘Pocket Army’.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko warned on Monday that no regional governor would be allowed a “pocket army”, after armed men took up positions around an oil company in which Igor Kolomoisky, the billionaire oligarch and governor, is battling to retain control.

The stand-off threatened to escalate into a full-blown clash between the country’s wealthy president and a rival oligarch who has long been one of Ukraine’s richest men but since last year’s Ukrainian revolution has also developed a political power base.

Mr Kolomoisky accepted the role of governor of the central Dnipropetrovsk region last year as Ukraine’s new government tried to stabilise the country after the president at the time, Viktor Yanukovich, was toppled by anti-government protests. He has also funded volunteer militias fighting Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s east.

The billionaire has long exercised management control over Ukrnafta, an oil producer, despite owning only 42 per cent. But a law passed by Kiev’s parliament has attempted to enable the state, which owns 50 per cent of the company plus 1 share, to retake full control.

In an unusual scene, camouflage-clad guards in full military gear, some armed with assault rifles, surrounded Ukrnafta’s headquarters in central Kiev on Sunday.

Mr Kolomoisky said the men were from a private security company summoned by the company’s management, not by him. He also said they did not come from one of the volunteer military battalions that he supports.

Private "Security" Company

Here a picture of what a private security company in Ukraine looks like.



Anecdotes from Ukraine

Reader "Ellen" Writes ...

Hello Mish,

Western media seldom talks about Ukraine's inner problems. In my country, wealth divided between several groups of ultra-rich oligarchs. Some control the bank system, others the power system, and another the oil companies. Recently the battles between them have escalated. We now have armed fighters on streets of Kiev guarding national oil companies.

I don't care which oligarch wins because I know that the people of Ukraine will lose in any case. The situation now looks like Feudal Europe in early Middle Ages. Each wealthy baron strives to be a king and have own army and own land with serves.

Porochenko has support of America and EU but zero respect in Ukraine. Powerful oligarchs battle for pieces. Some think that Ukraine oil was taken under control by USA, though Porochenko. This seems logical to me.

Best regards

Ellen

Desperation Increases

Reader John whose sister lives in Lviv, Ukraine writes ...

Hello Mish

There is a lot of political wrangling going on, with the oligarchs starting to go at one another. It looks to be shaping up as Poroshenko vs Kolomoisky. Stay tuned on this as we head towards the beginning of April.

The following is from my sister.

"Right now, everyone here is worrying about the tax and utility hikes coming in April. It's gonna be devastating. I don't like beating up the government in this state of war, but they're digging themselves an even bigger hole."

"They are taxing poor working pensioners which will bring in a paltry million or so, raising utilities by almost 300% in April, and inflation up to 30% and rising. People leave (especially youngsters) as fast as possible. The OSCE is as blind as ever, as is the World Bank and IMF. I have nothing positive to report, but the war continues, with people dying and maimed every day."

[John continues] This is the absolute first time that I have ever seen or heard my sister say anything negative about the current regime or junta as we call them. What this means is the average Ukrainian is up against the wall financially and there is nothing more that the government can take from them.

Events are a recipe for yet another disaster. I do not like to speculate, but I expect that the Junta will try and pull off something to distract the masses, but by now, the people are too wise for this nonsense, and oligarchs want their say.

John

Carpetbaggers vs. Oligarchs

On December 3, I wrote Enter the Carpetbaggers: Ukraine's New Finance Minister a US Citizen, New Economy Minister from Lithuania

"Now that Ukraine's gold has been sold off, the only thing left to complete the plundering is to send in the carpetbaggers. That process is now underway. Ukraine's just-named "Finance Minister" is a US citizen, and Ukraine's new "Economy Minister" is from Lithuania. To get around legal issues associated with having foreigners in top level government positions, Ukraine made the appointees Ukrainian citizens.

Three-Way Civil War?

Kiev was happy with the oligarchs and their private armies (Igor Kolomoisky is rumored to have 10,000), as long as they were battling the separatists.

Now it seems the oligarchs have turned on their masters in Kiev. Another overthrow, this time by an oligarch, could easily be in the works.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...VBovImQuBLi.99

[touchring]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

So Putin was right after all to protect the ethnic Russians - the ethnic Ukrainians, whatever that means, are now starting to point their guns at each other.

As for IMF, wait a minute, isn't China coming up with an alternative AIIB bank? Perfect timing.

Meanwhile, down where the rubber meets the road . . . .


Oligarchs and their "Pocket Armies" Take Over Oil Company in Kiev; Ukraine Begs for More Money; Three-Way Civil War?



Ukraine Begs for More Money

The IMF foolishly agreed to give Ukraine a four-year $40 billion bailout on March 12. Already, Ukraine's Finance Minister Begs for More Money.

Natalie Jaresko told the Financial Times in an interview that a four-year, $40bn, IMF-led bailout finalised this month — including restructuring $15bn of debt — was enough to stabilise the financial and banking system. But that was a “first step”.

Ukraine needed billions more to restart growth, rebuild shattered infrastructure, and deal with the effects of the eastern conflict that has killed at least 6,000 people, wounded 15,000 and displaced more than a million.

“I believe strongly that the G7, and frankly speaking the broader G20, has a responsibility now to support Ukraine in a much bigger way financially,” Ms Jaresko said.

Interesting Debate

“I end up hearing this burden-sharing argument between different parties. The Americans say the Europeans should do more, the Europeans say the Americans should do more. That’s an interesting debate, but no one’s paying a greater cost than the Ukrainian people,” said Jaresko.

Yes, it is an interesting debate. But missing form the debate is a Ukraine civil war that is still ongoing. Money to rebuild shattered infrastructure will do no such thing. Instead it will go for more war-mongering.

Money will also go straight into the pockets of the corrupt officials running the country and the corrupt oligarchs battling to take over the country.

Oligarch Takes Over Oil Company in Kiev

The battle over what's left of Ukraine has now reached Kiev with the takeover of oil company Ukrnafta by oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and his private army.

Please consider Poroshenko Warns Rival Over ‘Pocket Army’.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko warned on Monday that no regional governor would be allowed a “pocket army”, after armed men took up positions around an oil company in which Igor Kolomoisky, the billionaire oligarch and governor, is battling to retain control.

The stand-off threatened to escalate into a full-blown clash between the country’s wealthy president and a rival oligarch who has long been one of Ukraine’s richest men but since last year’s Ukrainian revolution has also developed a political power base.

Mr Kolomoisky accepted the role of governor of the central Dnipropetrovsk region last year as Ukraine’s new government tried to stabilise the country after the president at the time, Viktor Yanukovich, was toppled by anti-government protests. He has also funded volunteer militias fighting Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s east.

The billionaire has long exercised management control over Ukrnafta, an oil producer, despite owning only 42 per cent. But a law passed by Kiev’s parliament has attempted to enable the state, which owns 50 per cent of the company plus 1 share, to retake full control.

In an unusual scene, camouflage-clad guards in full military gear, some armed with assault rifles, surrounded Ukrnafta’s headquarters in central Kiev on Sunday.

Mr Kolomoisky said the men were from a private security company summoned by the company’s management, not by him. He also said they did not come from one of the volunteer military battalions that he supports.

Private "Security" Company

Here a picture of what a private security company in Ukraine looks like.



Anecdotes from Ukraine

Reader "Ellen" Writes ...

Hello Mish,

Western media seldom talks about Ukraine's inner problems. In my country, wealth divided between several groups of ultra-rich oligarchs. Some control the bank system, others the power system, and another the oil companies. Recently the battles between them have escalated. We now have armed fighters on streets of Kiev guarding national oil companies.

I don't care which oligarch wins because I know that the people of Ukraine will lose in any case. The situation now looks like Feudal Europe in early Middle Ages. Each wealthy baron strives to be a king and have own army and own land with serves.

Porochenko has support of America and EU but zero respect in Ukraine. Powerful oligarchs battle for pieces. Some think that Ukraine oil was taken under control by USA, though Porochenko. This seems logical to me.

Best regards

Ellen

Desperation Increases

Reader John whose sister lives in Lviv, Ukraine writes ...

Hello Mish

There is a lot of political wrangling going on, with the oligarchs starting to go at one another. It looks to be shaping up as Poroshenko vs Kolomoisky. Stay tuned on this as we head towards the beginning of April.

The following is from my sister.

"Right now, everyone here is worrying about the tax and utility hikes coming in April. It's gonna be devastating. I don't like beating up the government in this state of war, but they're digging themselves an even bigger hole."

"They are taxing poor working pensioners which will bring in a paltry million or so, raising utilities by almost 300% in April, and inflation up to 30% and rising. People leave (especially youngsters) as fast as possible. The OSCE is as blind as ever, as is the World Bank and IMF. I have nothing positive to report, but the war continues, with people dying and maimed every day."

[John continues] This is the absolute first time that I have ever seen or heard my sister say anything negative about the current regime or junta as we call them. What this means is the average Ukrainian is up against the wall financially and there is nothing more that the government can take from them.

Events are a recipe for yet another disaster. I do not like to speculate, but I expect that the Junta will try and pull off something to distract the masses, but by now, the people are too wise for this nonsense, and oligarchs want their say.

John

Carpetbaggers vs. Oligarchs

On December 3, I wrote Enter the Carpetbaggers: Ukraine's New Finance Minister a US Citizen, New Economy Minister from Lithuania

"Now that Ukraine's gold has been sold off, the only thing left to complete the plundering is to send in the carpetbaggers. That process is now underway. Ukraine's just-named "Finance Minister" is a US citizen, and Ukraine's new "Economy Minister" is from Lithuania. To get around legal issues associated with having foreigners in top level government positions, Ukraine made the appointees Ukrainian citizens.

Three-Way Civil War?

Kiev was happy with the oligarchs and their private armies (Igor Kolomoisky is rumored to have 10,000), as long as they were battling the separatists.

Now it seems the oligarchs have turned on their masters in Kiev. Another overthrow, this time by an oligarch, could easily be in the works.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...VBovImQuBLi.99

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

The Kremlin may be doing more to inflict economic pain on the Russian people than Western sanctions:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...fb3_story.html

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10150565.html

[don]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

Through the looking glass with Noam Chomsky.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

I am just trying to get over having to watch Americans directly compare the Soviet Union to Russia. The Soviet Union, like any empire, is much more vulnerable to economic starvation than any nation state. An empire does not have the sort of organic independent existence, but is rather a temporary arrangement requiring attention and resources. They act as if the same play that could shake Kazakhstan loose is going to change regimes in a nation state. If Germany is any guide, its the opposite. Look what is happening and yet I keep seeing how a dropping rubble, not true as of now, is going to repeat the 1990s. In Russia itself there are those who love Russia because its their home regardless of the state its in. They stayed. Other Russians who were not so inclined became Russian diaspora, and thus there has been a selective process to strengthen the sense of a nation even beyond the end of the Soviet empire.

I have seen the Soviet Union applied as a general principle as an example of socialism in the same reckless way. So I suppose its another case of victory defeating our senses again. The victory of the cold war has given us a fallacy of composition as if it was merely a failure of socialism and that we can starve out a nation state in the same way we can do to an empire. It was a Soviet Socialist Empire that failed as badly as it did.

In fact I can even go on a limb. Socialism in the United States could theoretically work, but it could be a horrible disaster depending how it was implemented. If for example we had a relatively independent union of 50 socialist states , they might be somewhat forced to compete with each other along with the much smaller scale of socialism . Thus there may be enough comparative and competitive forces to keep it afloat. In fact in North Dakota its already so. However a socialist colossus run from Washington would be nearly as bad as the Soviets. So even if it is a weakness its not the worst of breed like before.


So what is the point? Running the same play on China and Russia isn't going to work. China isn't the "free enterprise system" and yet there it is. Russia isn't a self conflicted empire like the Soviets. How has North Korean isolation worked so far to end that regime? So far we have had the most success in "defeating China" because we have done the exact opposite of isolation and integrated our economy with them.

[don]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

and then there's this . . .

courtesy Jessie's Cafe Americain

[vt]

Re: Finally proof that Russia is invading Ukraine!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ne-border.html