Oil update

[lektrode]

Re: Oil update

The US prices sound like a steal for us in the UK lek.

UK prices in $US/gal equivalent work out to $US 8.15/gal for petrol/gas and $US 8.4/gal for diesel.

thanks for the comeback sp

wow... what did the prices peak at over there?
and do you guys see the 'normal seasonal' (summer drive-athon rip-off) pattern like we see em over here?
(where its blamed on stuff like refinery 'maintenance' and winter-summer 'blend switch-over'...)

[sunpearl71]

Re: Oil update

thanks for the comeback sp

wow... what did the prices peak at over there?
and do you guys see the 'normal seasonal' (summer drive-athon rip-off) pattern like we see em over here?
(where its blamed on stuff like refinery 'maintenance' and winter-summer 'blend switch-over'...)

The peak was in 2012, when petrol/gas was c. 140.9p/l US$8.8/gal and diesel was c. 143.9p/l US$ 9.1/gal.

Seasonal variations are not huge, since a large majority fly, rather than drive to European destinations.

[FrankL]

Re: Oil update

Yes, you appear to understand the process.
Second part, the graph is OK. It is a graph of "Oil Producing Countries PAST Peak". In other words, the graph shows curves for individual countries that are BEYOND peak oil production. There is no curve for OPEC but we do see individual countries within OPEC that have gone past peak oil production.

When you say 'the graph is ok', can you provide any updated graphs to show the actual production for the production post 2007 of these countries?

The graph clearly indicates that everything post 2007 is an estimation; And I am having doubts that the decline is as marked as they predicted.

[Shakespear]

Re: Oil update

When you say 'the graph is ok', can you provide any updated graphs to show the actual production for the production post 2007 of these countries?

The graph clearly indicates that everything post 2007 is an estimation; And I am having doubts that the decline is as marked as they predicted.

GOOGLE will find you everything on this topic. Example "production oil curve Yemen". Then go to images. Choose.

http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?page_id=2547

[FrankL]

Re: Oil update

GOOGLE will find you everything on this topic. Example "production oil curve Yemen". Then go to images. Choose.

http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?page_id=2547

Right. Since you stated the graph was correct, I was under the impression you had the data to back up that conclusion. Sorry about that assumption!

Anyway, thanks for the link which led me to the IEA data export page. Here's my first attempt at a quick graph with similar (not 100% the same) data:

Oil-post-2007.jpg

As you can see, even taking into account subtle differences in the data sources used, they still start from a similar starting point (under 40 Mbpd on January 2007), yet the falloff is way less pronounced as in the graph you posted (and it's obvious from the graph that Canada tar sands and US shale play cannot explain by themselves the huge differences).

Which kind of makes me double up on my doubts that the projections in that graph turned out to be accurate...

Now again, does that mean all these countries NOT showing a decline vs. the projected decline have been pumping up their remaining reserves faster, or is there another reason for this lack of projected decline? I'm tending towards the second explanation...

[don]

Re: Oil update

what, if anything, does this mean . . .

the biggest mass liquidation of speculative longs in recorded 30 year history over the last few weeks...



Chart: Bloomberg
h/t Sean Corrigan