China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

[touchring]

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China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history. I'll post 1 city at a time.

#1 Guangzhou

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangzhou

Guangzhou (Chinese: 广州, literally "wide state") (former common romanisation: Canton; less-commonly known asKwangchow)^[4] is the capital and largest city of Guangdong province, People's Republic of China.^[5] Located on the Pearl River, about 120 km (75 mi) north-northwest of Hong Kong and north-northeast of Macau, Guangzhou is a key national transportation hub and trading port.^[6] One of the five National Central Cities,^[7] it holds sub-provincial administrative status.^[8]
Guangzhou is the third largest Chinese city and southern China's largest city. As of the 2010 census, the city's administrative area had a population of 12.78 million, making itself the most populous city in South China.^[9]

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#2 Dalian

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian

Dalian is a major city and seaport in the south of Liaoning province. It is the southernmost city of Northeast China and China's northernmost warm water port, at the tip of the Liaodong peninsula. Dalian is the province's second largest city and has sub-provincial administrative status;[3] only the provincial capital (Shenyang) is larger. The Shandong peninsula lies southwest across the Bohai Sea; Korea lies across the Yellow Sea to the east. Today a financial, shipping and logistics center for Northeast Asia, Dalian has a significant history of being used by foreign powers for its ports:

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#3 Beijing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing

Beijing, sometimes romanized as Peking,[6] is the capital of the People's Republic of China and one of the most populous cities in the world. The population as of 2013 was 21,150,000, and has a permanent resident population of 19,612,000.[7][8]

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#4 Shanghai

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai

Shanghai is the largest Chinese city by population[8][9] and the largest city proper by population in the world.[10] It is one of the four direct-controlled municipalities, with a population of more than 24 million as of 2013.[5] It is a global financial center,[11] and a transport hub with the world's busiest container port.[12] Located in the Yangtze River Delta in East China, Shanghai sits at the mouth of the Yangtze in the middle portion of the Chinese coast. The municipality borders the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang to the north, south and west, and is bounded to the east by the East China Sea.[13]

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#5 Shenzhen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen

Shenzhen is a major city in the south of Southern China's Guangdong Province, situated immediately north of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. The area became China's first—and one of the most successful—Special Economic Zones (SEZs).[3] It currently also holds sub-provincial administrative status, with powers slightly less than a province.[4] According to the 2010 National Census, Shenzhen is the tenth most populous city in mainland China with a population of 10.35 million.[5]

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[Fox]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Do you have any bubble statistics to go along with those cities (ie vacancy rates, median home price to median income, growth rates, etc..)?

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Do you have any bubble statistics to go along with those cities (ie vacancy rates, median home price to median income, growth rates, etc..)?

I've not really looked into statistics, but I would take all statistics from China with a pinch of salt. It will be more accurate to count the number of lit homes and offices at night.

From what I know, first tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have high occupancy rates and offices in prime locations are taken up fairly quickly.

There was a time when office buildings and apartments in Pudong (Shanghai's new CBD) were cheap to buy and rent, and many were empty for sometime, but today they are among the most expensive and highly sought after by companies looking to rent.

The real estate boom in China is not the urban sprawl in Spain or California but the reverse - people are moved from low density to high density apartments and buildings, often within walking distance to transportation nodes such as a subway or metro station. High rise buildings are also more energy efficient and cheaper to maintain than low rise offices and homes. There is real economic advantage in urbanization.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...al-estate.html

The vacancy rate in Lujiazui is 3 percent and will double to about 6 percent by the end of 2014, according to CBRE. The grade-A office vacancy rate outside the central business district rose 0.3 percentage points to 24 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in October. For the entire city, the rate stood at 7.5 percent, the Chicago-based broker said.

The entire city vacancy of 7.5 is lower than Manhattan, let alone the entire NYC.

On the other hand, there are ghost cities, such as this new "mini-Manhattan" near the port city of Tianjin that is being build entirely from scratch.

http://www.dailybrainfreeze.com/cons...ties-of-china/

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#6 Tianjin

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjin

Tianjin is a metropolis in northern China and one of the five national central cities of the People's Republic of China (PRC). It is governed as one of the four direct-controlled municipalities of the PRC, and is thus under direct administration of the central government. Tianjin borders Hebei Province and Beijing Municipality, bounded to the east by the Bohai Gulf portion of the Yellow Sea. Part of the Bohai Economic Rim, it is the largest coastal city in northern China.


In terms of urban population, Tianjin is the fourth largest in China, after Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou. In terms of administrative area population, Tianjin also ranks fifth in Mainland China.[2]

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[Fox]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

I've not really looked into statistics, but I would take all statistics from China with a pinch of salt. It will be more accurate to count the number of lit homes and offices at night.

Actually, I'd like to see that. Can you post some side by side night and day pictures?

But ultimately while the money is flowing in to china they can paper over the problems. However with Europe about to hit a Ukraine induced recession wall and oil demand showing a global recession is on it's way (bond market too?), that money flow may start to reverse. And China selling Treasuries/USD's will be a pretty bitter pill for the US FED and economy to swallow

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Actually, I'd like to see that. Can you post some side by side night and day pictures?

But ultimately while the money is flowing in to china they can paper over the problems. However with Europe about to hit a Ukraine induced recession wall and oil demand showing a global recession is on it's way (bond market too?), that money flow may start to reverse. And China selling Treasuries/USD's will be a pretty bitter pill for the US FED and economy to swallow

Like anywhere else in the world, the unoccupied real estate are usually found in the suburbs, away from the city center. Take for example Tianjin, a 2nd tier city is building a new CBD about 30 miles from Tianjin city along with a couple other projects. This project is at risk.

1st tier cities can also be be booming while smaller cities go bankrupt. Just like San Francisco and Manhattan are boom towns, while Detroit is bankrupt.

On the Ukraine problem, China is getting a windfall from the sanctions imposed on Russia, by being able to buy energy below market price while selling food to Russia at above market price.

Anyone can print money, but can you buy it if the other guy refuses to sell it to you at whatever price? As a result, countries go to war to get energy (Iraq), spending trillions (not to mention the casualties, massive PR hit and psychological trauma), but now China is going to get it virtually FOC! How's that for a second term foreign policy?


http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/27447-Putin-s-Pointless-Move-On-Ukraine-Leaves-It-A-Vassal-To-China



More crazy photos here: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...1144467&page=2

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#7 Qingdao

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qingdao

Qingdao is a major city in eastern Shandong Province, Eastern China. Administered at the sub-provincial level,[1] Qingdao has jurisdiction over 7 districts and 5 county-level cities. According to the 2010 census, the city's seven urban districts has 4.53 million inhabitants, while the total population of the sub-provincial city is up to 8.71 million.

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#8 Chongqing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqing

Chongqing; former official name: Chungking is a major city in Southwest China and one of the five national central cities in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Administratively, it is one of the PRC's four direct-controlled municipalities (the other three are Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin), and the only such municipality in inland China.[8]


The municipality was created on 14 March 1997, succeeding the sub-provincial city administration that was part of Sichuan province.[9] As of 2010 census, the municipality had a population of 28,846,170.[4] According to this census, Chongqing is the most populous Chinese municipality,[10] although the urbanized area is estimated to have a population of only 6 or 7 million,[11]

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[aaron]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Taipei is certainly a very important city to China and would be interesting to add to your list. The Taiwanese have always been the biggest investors in China and their 1% control vast fortunes (business, industrial, real estate, etc) throughout the mainland.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Taipei is certainly a very important city to China and would be interesting to add to your list. The Taiwanese have always been the biggest investors in China and their 1% control vast fortunes (business, industrial, real estate, etc) throughout the mainland.

Aaron, here you go! I'll be putting up Kaohsiung city later.

#9 Taipei (ROC)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei

Taipei, officially known as Taipei City, is the seat of the central government of and commonly known as the capital of the Republic of China. Situated at the northern tip of Taiwan, Taipei is located on the Tamsui River; it is about 25 km (16 mi) southwest of Keelung, a port city on the Pacific Ocean. It lies in the Taipei Basin, an ancient lakebed bounded by the two relatively narrow valleys of the Keelung and Xindian rivers, which join to form the Tamsui River along the city's western border.[2] The city proper is home to an estimated 2,693,672 people.[3

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[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#10 Chengdu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu

Chengdu, formerly romanized as Chengtu, is the provincial capital of Sichuan province in Southwest China,[2] as well as a major city in Western China. It holds sub-provincial administrative status.[3] The administrative area houses 14,047,625 inhabitants: 7,123,697 within the municipality's nine urban districts[4] and 6,730,749 in the surrounding suburbs and rural area. According to the 2010 census, Chengdu is the fourth most populous city in mainland China,[5] and most populous among prefecture-level cities as well.[6]

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