China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

i'm curious about china's electrical grid. there are many stories about the unreliability of electrical supply in developing countries but i haven't seen any about china. i have been assuming they have a very reliable grid. am i right in this assumption? or is there a level, e.g. small village or rural, at which the grid's reliability breaks down?

I've not heard of this problem although it is a practice to use UPS for computers and servers.

I believe that China has a bigger problem with water supply. Tap water does not look portable - in some cases looks like river water - so better to drink distilled or mineral water.

[santafe2]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

The Pearl River Delta, which comprises of tier 1 cities such as Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen has a combined urban population of nearly 60 million people, over an area slightly smaller than Switzerland or the Netherlands. In comparison, the population Switzerland and the Netherlands are 8 million and 17 million each.

touchring, do you know anything about the geology around Guangzhou or of any plans to fortify the area from sea level rise? I just finished an article in the New Yorker that mentioned Guangzhou as having the most assets vulnerable to sea rise. Miami and most of South Florida is the poster child for sea rise because of their limestone geology and unfortunate location on the US Eastern Seaboard where sea rise happens to be accentuated. I suspect Guangzhou has much longer to prepare but I thought you might have some insights on this.

"Of all the world’s cities, Miami ranks second in terms of assets vulnerable to rising seas—No. 1 is Guangzhou—and in terms of population it ranks fourth, after Guangzhou, Mumbai, and Shanghai."

BTW, thanks for all your work on this thread. Many of us have a much better understanding of the growth in China because of it.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

touchring, do you know anything about the geology around Guangzhou or of any plans to fortify the area from sea level rise? I just finished an article in the New Yorker that mentioned Guangzhou as having the most assets vulnerable to sea rise. Miami and most of South Florida is the poster child for sea rise because of their limestone geology and unfortunate location on the US Eastern Seaboard where sea rise happens to be accentuated. I suspect Guangzhou has much longer to prepare but I thought you might have some insights on this.

"Of all the world’s cities, Miami ranks second in terms of assets vulnerable to rising seas—No. 1 is Guangzhou—and in terms of population it ranks fourth, after Guangzhou, Mumbai, and Shanghai."

BTW, thanks for all your work on this thread. Many of us have a much better understanding of the growth in China because of it.

Hi sanfe2, to be honest, I don't know much about geology, nor have I studied geology, but from a layman point of view, I don't think rising sea level at least in the next 50 years will not pose a existential problem for major cities like Guangzhou, as they could build dikes and maybe even dam up sections of the river, but small towns, rural areas and farmland may not be as well protected in the event of a combination of high tide and storm/typhoon surge.

In my opinion, the bigger risk will be from once in one thousand year of kind of earthquake hitting major cities and many buildings that are not build according to code may collapse.

[santafe2]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Hi sanfe2, to be honest, I don't know much about geology, nor have I studied geology, but from a layman point of view, I don't think rising sea level at least in the next 50 years will not pose a existential problem for major cities like Guangzhou, as they could build dikes and maybe even dam up sections of the river, but small towns, rural areas and farmland may not be as well protected in the event of a combination of high tide and storm/typhoon surge.

In my opinion, the bigger risk will be from once in one thousand year of kind of earthquake hitting major cities and many buildings that are not build according to code may collapse.

Thanks, that was my expectation. The geography appears to support that kind of response. Sounds like the problems will not be unlike those of New Orleans in the US. There is so far enough will to keep New Orleans above water but the rest of Southern Louisiana and Mississippi is just too sparsely populated to support. Land loss is often quoted as a "football field an hour" in both Southern Louisiana and the Mississippi Delta. As for earthquakes, as devastating as they can be, they're one time, localized events. Sea rise, if it continues will cost trillions to mitigate.

[GRG55]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Thanks, that was my expectation. The geography appears to support that kind of response. Sounds like the problems will not be unlike those of New Orleans in the US. There is so far enough will to keep New Orleans above water but the rest of Southern Louisiana and Mississippi is just too sparsely populated to support. Land loss is often quoted as a "football field an hour" in both Southern Louisiana and the Mississippi Delta. As for earthquakes, as devastating as they can be, they're one time, localized events. Sea rise, if it continues will cost trillions to mitigate.

I've always viewed New Orleans, which is already below current sea level, as the definitive lab exercise for the US Army Corp of Engineers.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Hi sanfe2, to be honest, I don't know much about geology, nor have I studied geology, but from a layman point of view, I don't think rising sea level at least in the next 50 years will not pose a existential problem for major cities like Guangzhou, as they could build dikes and maybe even dam up sections of the river, but small towns, rural areas and farmland may not be as well protected in the event of a combination of high tide and storm/typhoon surge.

In my opinion, the bigger risk will be from once in one thousand year of kind of earthquake hitting major cities and many buildings that are not build according to code may collapse.

Except that if the Greenland Ice Sheet does a "Twin Towers" and collapses in one summer, raising sea levels 25 feet in the process. My reason for suggesting that possibility is the fact that the ice sheet is 2 miles high and acts as though a dam of frozen water 2 miles deep. In 2012 the top was above freezing and as such, there is a real potential for such a collapse.

[santafe2]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Except that if the Greenland Ice Sheet does a "Twin Towers" and collapses in one summer, raising sea levels 25 feet in the process. My reason for suggesting that possibility is the fact that the ice sheet is 2 miles high and acts as though a dam of frozen water 2 miles deep. In 2012 the top was above freezing and as such, there is a real potential for such a collapse.

That's correct. If Greenland is hit by an asteroid proportional in size to a Boeing 767 hitting the North Tower, then yes, we could have a similarly devastating outcome. Short of that, it's not happening and that sort of hyperbole is not helpful. Is there sea level rise? Yes. Will the rate of rise increase over time? Most likely. Should we prepare? It would be good idea. Should we light our hair on fire? That is not advised unless your hair is horribly unruly.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

That's correct. If Greenland is hit by an asteroid proportional in size to a Boeing 767 hitting the North Tower, then yes, we could have a similarly devastating outcome. Short of that, it's not happening and that sort of hyperbole is not helpful. Is there sea level rise? Yes. Will the rate of rise increase over time? Most likely. Should we prepare? It would be good idea. Should we light our hair on fire? That is not advised unless your hair is horribly unruly.

The flow of liquid water emitting from beneath the ice in 2012 computed to a delivery of 2.24TW of kinetic energy per hour at the base of the ice if the majority stemmed from surface water flow from ice melting. More recently it has been reported that the base of the ice sheet, the surface resting upon the rock beneath has been found to be much reduced; that there are large cavities at the base of the ice sheet. Not trying to add to the hyperbole, just adding some facts.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Except that if the Greenland Ice Sheet does a "Twin Towers" and collapses in one summer, raising sea levels 25 feet in the process. My reason for suggesting that possibility is the fact that the ice sheet is 2 miles high and acts as though a dam of frozen water 2 miles deep. In 2012 the top was above freezing and as such, there is a real potential for such a collapse.

They would build a dike of 25 feet high around Guangzhou city and dam up the Pearl Delta river if there is such a need. China has the capacity to do that when it comes to producing the steel and cement required.

As for villages and rural towns not worth saving, the communist are very good at mass relocation of millions of people, especially to Xinjiang province and Tibet. They have already done that when they flooded the Three Gorges.

[santafe2]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

The flow of liquid water emitting from beneath the ice in 2012 computed to a delivery of 2.24TW of kinetic energy per hour at the base of the ice if the majority stemmed from surface water flow from ice melting. More recently it has been reported that the base of the ice sheet, the surface resting upon the rock beneath has been found to be much reduced; that there are large cavities at the base of the ice sheet. Not trying to add to the hyperbole, just adding some facts.

Chris, I believe the standard reference for Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise is 2013 IPCC AR5. Their assessment is that it's very likely, (greater than 90% probability), Greenland is contributing .59mm per year or about 1/4" per decade to sea level rise. With regard to this thread, I was just curious if touchring had personal experience with the Pearl River Delta area in China. Since I asked the other day and tr responded I've found several papers which reference the need for flood control and the difficulty of accurately assessing sea level rise because the satellite measurement period is still so short. That said, there is a real problem with flooding in coastal cities in China but it's much more closely related to the spectacular rate of build-out than other issues.

Here's an article from The Economist:

Why are Chinese cities flooding?



On the evening of August 7th, just as Friday rush hour began, a brief storm drenched parts of Beijing. The rainfall of three hours submerged many roads under water and paralysed traffic. Pictures of soggy commuters trudging through knee-deep water were soon posted on social media. Beijing, China’s landlocked and generally dusty capital, “now has sea views,” a typical mircoblogger remarked sardonically. Urban Chinese are becoming all too familiar with such episodes. The number of Chinese cities affected by floods has more than doubled since 2008, while over the same period the country's major rivers have mostly remained stable. In 2013 more than 200 cities were swamped at some point. Why are so many Chinese cities flooded?

The short answer is that the country’s urban sprawl has been expanding much faster than its drainage infrastructure could catch up. The government began to recognise the problem of flooding in the late 1990s, after a massive flood along the Yangzi river killed thousands of people. But the policymakers in Beijing regarded it largely as a rural problem. They poured money into the building of massive dams, whereas urban drainage was by and large neglected. According to Zhou Yuwen, a professor of civil engineering at the Beijing University of Technology, most drains cannot cope with the sort of rainfalls that has a 100% chance of occurring in any given year. In other words, it is all but certain they will be overwhelmed by ordinary rains—every year. To make matters worse, Chinese cities have expanded rapidly, some directly into flood plains. Rivers and lakes were reclaimed to make way for development. The amount of urban land in China has more than doubled since 1998, reaching a total of 50,000 square km by the end of last year, and almost all of it is covered with concrete and asphalt.

All this is exacerbated by China’s often impetuous approach to urban planning. When the planners in charge of Beijing designed its roads a few decades ago, for example, sunken underpasses were chosen over elevated interchanges for the reason that they seemed more appealing visually, as well as being cheaper to build. They have also, as it turns out, become a particular source of sodden misery. Beijing has 149 such underpasses in its urban districts. With inadequate drains and pumps, even a single heavy rain can turn them into swimming pools, bringing traffic to a halt in the process.

The problem of urban flooding is not unique to China, but the country’s rapid urbanisation has made the damage exponentially greater. With climate change on the horizon, many of its cities will have an especially hard time coping with the increased frequency of extreme weather events. A global study of flood losses, published in Nature Climate Change in 2013, ranked the southern metropolis of Guangzhou as the most vulnerable of the world’s 136 major coastal cities, measured in terms of potential damage. Without forward-looking measures, by 2050 the city could be devastated to the tune of $13.2 billion in a single year. This is all the more frustrating, or paradoxical even, because China’s cities are also in desperate need of water. More than 400 of its biggest 600 cities face routine shortages.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/econo...ist-explains-5

[Chris Coles]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

The flow of liquid water emitting from beneath the ice in 2012 computed to a delivery of 2.24TW of kinetic energy per hour at the base of the ice if the majority stemmed from surface water flow from ice melting. More recently it has been reported that the base of the ice sheet, the surface resting upon the rock beneath has been found to be much reduced; that there are large cavities at the base of the ice sheet. Not trying to add to the hyperbole, just adding some facts.

A mistake on my part, i'm not currently close to my notes, poor excuse I know; the data was just for the Peterman Glacier, not the whole of Greenland.

Yes, every view is correct, there is clear evidence that there very well may be centuries before the entire ice sheet melts. Then again, I got into this debate by coming across a large group of Arctic scientists on the Internet chatting amongst themselves about how they believed that the data they had then to hand indicated the potential for such a collapse.Arctic Ice is Melting - We Must Face Facts.pdf

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Chris, I believe the standard reference for Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise is 2013 IPCC AR5. Their assessment is that it's very likely, (greater than 90% probability), Greenland is contributing .59mm per year or about 1/4" per decade to sea level rise. With regard to this thread, I was just curious if touchring had personal experience with the Pearl River Delta area in China. Since I asked the other day and tr responded I've found several papers which reference the need for flood control and the difficulty of accurately assessing sea level rise because the satellite measurement period is still so short. That said, there is a real problem with flooding in coastal cities in China but it's much more closely related to the spectacular rate of build-out than other issues.

I'm not familiar with Pearl River Delta region.

Many cities in Asia, especially South East Asian cities face flooding issues due to tropical downpours that cause flash flooding. In Cambodia and the Philippines, people in cities travel around by boat during the monsoon seasons. Many houses are built so that residents can easily move their furniture to the 2nd floor whenever the monsoon comes.

The government in Singapore converted the downtown waterfront into a reservoir using a dam.



Singapore waterfront in 1960s. You can see the ships and boats.



Photo taken 2011. What used to be sea has become a lake. The green roof of the pier in the 1960s photo is in red in the new photo.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

A 2015 vlog on a Canadian's business trip to Guangzhou, Shanghai and Nanjing. One of the best amateur video I've seen on Youtube that shows the extent of the real estate building in major Chinese cities.

For those who have not visited China, and those who have not been there in the last 15 years, I assure you this will be a shocking video.

From 11:30 min, it says "Day time traveling in Guangzhou", which is a mistake, it should be "Day time traveling in Shanghai" and "Night time traveling in Shanghai" from the 14th min.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Does anyone have regional occupancy figures?

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Does anyone have regional occupancy figures?

This colliers report says that Shanghai office vacancy is 5%.

http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/china/...-market-report

Of course, this is Shanghai where car license plates are sold for $10k and that is provided you win the lottery - only 1 out of 20 gets to win. Smaller cities won't be the same.