China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

[gwynedd1]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

So how does China keep a Billion people employed in the face of this trend?

Oh well they are in luck. They have an abundance of role models from which to choose in the West. Complex compliance like complex tax codes can employ accountants and tax attorneys. One can create licencing requirements forcing "lay people" to stop doing things by themselves to beef up the service economy. You can bloat government. Increases in crime also creates a virtuous cycle of industry for prisons.

[GRG55]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Oh well they are in luck. They have an abundance of role models from which to choose in the West. Complex compliance like complex tax codes can employ accountants and tax attorneys. One can create licencing requirements forcing "lay people" to stop doing things by themselves to beef up the service economy. You can bloat government. Increases in crime also creates a virtuous cycle of industry for prisons.

That's what so hilarious about the Chinese miracle economy. Having done Dubai times 1000 (Jim Chanos' description) with their housing market, the EU times 1000 with their infrastructure stimulus (quick, what's the difference between an empty motorway in Greece and high speed rail to an empty city in China?), and well on the way to Nasdaq times 1000 with its stock market, the PBOC may be forced into "The Fed times 1000" with its monetary policy. Maybe you will be proved correct...the final salvation a much lauded "service economy"; with Chinese characteristics no doubt.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Thanks for putting up the video.

There's a huge bubble, but there had also been a huge boost in productivity, especially in building and construction and transportation.

I've put up a youtube clip on a major thoroughfare of West China city Chengdu, South Renmin Road, which I traveled to recently.

Chengdu is suppose to be one of the most economically backward major city in China and ranks number 66th in terms of GDP per capita rank.

66

Chengdu

41,253

6,094

10,454

Sichuan[38]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...GDP_per_capita

Here's another clip taken by an Australia tourist in Sept 1990, 25 years ago. He stayed in a hotel that's along the same road. 1990 wasn't too long ago and I can still remember, although vaguely, watching the news on TV when the first Gulf War broke out.

You can understand the situation in China just by watching the 2 videos.

[don]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Tens of millions of peasants urbanized. An immense undertaking.

[GRG55]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

That's what so hilarious about the Chinese miracle economy. Having done Dubai times 1000 (Jim Chanos' description) with their housing market, the EU times 1000 with their infrastructure stimulus (quick, what's the difference between an empty motorway in Greece and high speed rail to an empty city in China?), and well on the way to Nasdaq times 1000 with its stock market, the PBOC may be forced into "The Fed times 1000" with its monetary policy. Maybe you will be proved correct...the final salvation a much lauded "service economy"; with Chinese characteristics no doubt.

Looks like China is well on the way to a "service economy" after all. Evidently now much more lucrative to intermediate streaming money into speculation than to use it to build yet another airport, high speed railway, empty city, toy factory or melamine baby formula plant.

Some of this sounds like subprime, with Chinese characteristics


Some Chinese Are Taking 22% Margin Loans to Finance Stock Purchases

June 30, 2015 — 3:00 PM MDT

Zhang Minmin is one of tens of thousands playing in one of the riskier corners of China’s stock market, borrowing money at high interest rates through unregulated online lenders to amplify his bets on potential equity gains.

“Sometimes when the market is good, I would make profits enough to buy an Audi in just a week or two. However, when the market is down, it’s also possible to lose half an Audi very quickly,” said Zhang, a 32-year-old who works in the financial industry in Hangzhou, a city near Shanghai.

As more Chinese jumped into the market in the hope of instant wealth, peer-to-peer websites offering loans for stock investing have mushroomed. They are among a multitude of sources of leverage outside of traditional margin financing that threaten to complicate any efforts to prevent an unruly reversal of China’s stock market boom, which is already flatering.

Chinese brokers have extended 2.1 trillion yuan ($339 billion) of margin finance to investors, double the amount at the start of the year. But this often-cited figure is only part of the mountain of debt taken out to finance share purchases. Another 1.7 trillion yuan may have flowed into stock market investment from wealth management products, online lending sites and other sources, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts...

...About 40 online lenders helped arrange more than 7 billion yuan of loans for stock purchases in the first five months of 2015, according to Shanghai-based Yingcan Group, which tracks China’s more than 1,500 such credit providers. Lending volumes surged 44 percent in May from April, Yingcan estimates...

...Zhang the investor says he can borrow up to five times his capital using P2P sites, while brokers only allow leverage of up to three times. He can also take positions in an almost unlimited number of stocks, while brokers only extend margin finance for 900 of the shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

One example of the new online lenders is Ppmoney.com, a Guangzhou-based P2P website which says its investors need only 2,000 yuan in cash to qualify for loans. Brokerages require customers to put down at least 500,000 yuan to open a margin finance account.

Colorful moving ads at the top of the Ppmoney website proclaim “four times leverage, speedy transfer” and “we provide funds, you invest, profits are all yours.” Investors can borrow as much as 5 million yuan for potential daily returns as high as 60 percent, the website says.

“Leverage is a very good tool in a bull market as it helps investors to accumulate profits more quickly,” said Liu Yang, chief executive of Miniu98.com, another site that arranges stock loans. “Reaping higher returns by taking on higher risk is a right that every investor should enjoy. I am hoping to afford small investors with the right.”...

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#1 Guangzhou
#2 Dalian
#3 Beijing
#4 Shanghai
#5 Shenzhen
#6 Tianjin
#7 Qingdao
#8 Chongqing
#9 Taipei (ROC)
#10 Chengdu
#11 Nanjing
#12 Ningbo
#13 Wuxi
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ble-in-history


#14 Suzhou
#15 Shenyang
#16 Hangzhou
#17 Kaohsiung City (ROC)
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-history/page2


#18 Shi Jia Zhuang
#19 Changsha
#21 Changzhou
#22 Wuhan
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-history/page3

I went to this small island city, 8 hour bus ride from HK in 2000, it was a slum then and there are "hair salons" (massage shops) almost every street - this is not a joke.

Note the 1000 ft sea facing twin towers on the 2nd photo.


#23 Xiamen

Xiamen is a major city on the southeast (Taiwan Strait) coast of the People's Republic of China. It is administered as a sub-provincial city of Fujian province,[2] with an area of 1,699.39 square kilometres (656.14 sq mi) and population of 3,531,347 at the 2010 Census.[3] The city's urban area includes the old urban island area and covers all six districts of Xiamen (Huli, Siming, Jimei, Tong'an, Haicang and recently Xiang'an), and has a total urban population of 1,861,289.[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiamen









Metro under construction

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Many of the photos do not represent the extent of the construction bubble going on in China as Chinese cities do not have a central business district where you can capture all the tall new buildings in one photo.

To give an example, here's another photo of city #2 Dalian, a small-medium sized city by Chinese standards, from a distance.

#2 Dalian

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian







Metro map

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

One of the most liveable, if not the most liveable, major city in China. Kunming was not Chinese but conquered by the Mongols and came under Chinese rule after the Mongol Yuan dynasty collapsed 700 years ago.


#24 Kunming

Kunming is the capital and largest city in Yunnan Province, Southwest China.[2] Known as Yunnan-Fu until the 1920s, today it is a prefecture-level city and the political, economic, communications and cultural centre of the province as well as the seat of the provincial government. Kunming is also called the Spring city due to its weather. The city is also home to several universities, museums, galleries and other important economic, cultural, and educational institutions. The headquarters of many of Yunnan's large businesses are in Kunming as well. It was important during World War II as a Chinese military center, American air base, and transport terminus for the Burma Road. Located in the middle of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, Kunming is located at an altitude of 1,900 metres (6,234 feet) above sea level and at a latitude just north of the Tropic of Cancer. It covers an area of 21,473 square kilometres (8,291 sq mi) and its urban area covers 2,622 square kilometres (1,012 sq mi). Kunming has population of 6,432,212, including 3,583,429 in the built-up area made up of 4 urban and 1 suburban districts,[3] and is located at the northern edge of the large Lake Dian, surrounded by temples and lake-and-limestone hill landscapes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunming

[shiny!]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

touchring, I don't know if I've said it before, but thanks for taking the time to post these pictures and information. It's very interesting.

[lektrode]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

touchring, I don't know if I've said it before, but thanks for taking the time to post these pictures and information. It's very interesting.

+1
cant say eye ever saw anything like this in any other forum, nor anywhere in the lamerstream media...
(methinks the reason for that being they wouldnt want to 'alarm' The Rest of US, esp during the prev 7years of the current reign of terror known as 'the great recovery' ...)

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

touchring, I don't know if I've said it before, but thanks for taking the time to post these pictures and information. It's very interesting.

Thanks shiny. Actually like what lektrode said, there's nothing like this on the Internet, at least not in English, so I decided to make one. What is even more impressive is the transportation infrastructure, i.e. subways, highways and HSR, a lot of construction is going on in that area.

If you have been to Singapore, the public transportation network in Chinese cities is better than that of Singapore, at least the ones I've been to. It is mind boggling since Singapore is a tiny spec of an island while China is a continent. I'll put up a separate topic on this when I've the time.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

#1 Guangzhou
#2 Dalian
#3 Beijing
#4 Shanghai
#5 Shenzhen
#6 Tianjin
#7 Qingdao
#8 Chongqing
#9 Taipei (ROC)
#10 Chengdu
#11 Nanjing
#12 Ningbo
#13 Wuxi
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ble-in-history


#14 Suzhou
#15 Shenyang
#16 Hangzhou
#17 Kaohsiung City (ROC)
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-history/page2


#18 Shi Jia Zhuang
#19 Changsha
#21 Changzhou
#22 Wuhan
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-history/page3
#23 Xiamen
#24 Kunming
#25 Sanya

Although Sanya is only a town by Chinese standards, it has the honor of being the most speculated real estate market in China.

http://www.tropicalhainan.com/sanya-...-house-prices/


#25 Sanya

Sanya is the southernmost city on Hainan Island, and one of the three prefecture-level cities of Hainan Province, in Southeast China.

According to the 2010 Census, the population of Sanya is of 685,408 inhabitants,[1] living in an area of 1,919.58 square kilometres (741.15 sq mi). The city is renowned for its tropical climate and has emerged as a popular tourist destination, also serving as the training site of the Chinese national beach volleyball team. Sanya is home to small concentrations of Utsul people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanya








No Metro

[GRG55]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Although Sanya is only a town by Chinese standards, it has the honor of being the most speculated real estate market in China.

http://www.tropicalhainan.com/sanya-...-house-prices/


#25 Sanya



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanya








No Metro

Looks like better air than Beijing or Shanghai.

[touchring]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

Looks like better air than Beijing or Shanghai.

I've been to Hainan island, but not Sanya. There are no visible heavy industries over there, mostly fruit orchards and fish ponds. It is one of the best places to live in China for older folks, not just the better air and environment and subtropics climate, but the people culture over there is pleasant unlike most places in China. The only thing is they experience typhoon although not as severe as the Philippines or Taiwan.

[jk]

Re: China cities at the peak of the largest real estate bubble in history

i'm curious about china's electrical grid. there are many stories about the unreliability of electrical supply in developing countries but i haven't seen any about china. i have been assuming they have a very reliable grid. am i right in this assumption? or is there a level, e.g. small village or rural, at which the grid's reliability breaks down?