Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

[vt]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

Why are we seeing someone advertising for bitcoin on a site we pay for?

The bitcoin ad should be removed.

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

one other thing, that bothers me about bit-coin. What is the barrier to entry? Will we have some day byte-coin, nibble-coin, word-coin etc?
bit coin is leading the charge now, but I am old enough to remember the beta-max, lotus 123, and myspace.com. Who will be the winner?
I guess this is analagous to competing currencies???

Barrier to entry is minimal, hence 452+ Crypto currencies already (probably not a complete list): https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/
However, look at the 24 hour transaction volume (click that column to re-sort), you will quickly see that less than 10 are really popular, with bitcoin and litecoin having a huge lead.

This is analogous to competing fiat currencies ....(aprox 276): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ing_currencies
... except only governments can issue "fiat" currencies.

There is no practical limit on how many crypto currencies can be launched and we may (likely) have many thousands in the not too distant future; however, the free market will determine which ones are of any worth.

My list of identifying crypto-currency 'market worth' is:
1) A non-pre-mined or minimally pre-mined currency before launch (meaning authors that launched the coin only own a very small percentage of them, otherwise it's a pump and dump/scam).
2) There must be a solid and long-term committed set of highly qualified core developers for the currency to implement security patches and improvements over time. Else, currency will likely die via security issue and/or obsolesence
3) Currency must offer a significant set of improvements over bitcoin (or whatever the leading one is) - this one narrows down the list very quickly, since 95% of all the current crypto alternatives offer almost nothing of new value and are merely copy/paste clones with name changes, and a few parameters tweaked from bitcoin (i.e. faster transaction speeds, slightly better encryption algos, max number of coins are greater or fewer than bitcoin, etc), despite many of them having fancy marketing websites.
4) Network Effect - Only the first or second currency of its type (with unique features) will be of any worth, any clones after the second (i.e. 3-100+) will likely not be worth much as they don't offer much.

To me (and this is strictly my opinion - others will vary), at present, the only ones of any value are:
a) Bitcoin - Due to first mover advantage/network effect, very high innovation, very talented and large pool of developers
b) Litecoin - Not much more than a Bitcoin clone, but was the second ever crypto currency with a large network effect and small (but larger than most) pool of developers and community
c) Ethereum - This may become eventually known as bitcoin 2.0 if it succeeds, it is not officially launched yet (Q4 2014-2015), has high innovation (see list of all potential blockchain technologies I listed in above post - they are doable on this platform far more easily than on bitcoin itself), it already has a dedicated development team of over 60 people (this is considered huge), with several PHds and World renound Cryptography experts.
d) DarkCoin - First anonymous currency - will never make it mainstream as it isn't taxable/traceable, but will be popular in anarchy/extreme libertarian circles.
e) DogeCoin - The first "joke" coin, named after an Internet meme and made popular amongst 10's of thousands of teenagers. No real innovation here but a large network effect.

There are others worthy of mention for significant innovation and having 'first mover' advantage (Ripple, MasterCoin, BitShares, nameCoin, Maidsafecoin, etc) but for a myriad of reasons that I wont go into here, have lost significant market value.

I personally own bitcoin (90%), litecoin (5%) and Ethereum (5%).

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

Why are we seeing someone advertising for bitcoin on a site we pay for?

1) Advertising? Does everyone else advertise the dollar when they make posts about the dollar? I prefer educate and inform. I'm not selling bitcoins :P
2) This is the non-paid, public part of the website
3) Bitcoin is associated to the potential future of global finance, whether you agree or not.

[vt]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

It's fine and important to discuss the topic.

No one wants to be asked to pay some one for their posts on a subject. It's like the bitcoin Krishnas

Especially those that pay to support the author of the website.

Those on the free site benefit from those who pay for the non free content. Without the paid support the site might not exist.

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

No one wants to be asked to pay some one for their posts on a subject.

Ah,ok got it. Ok my signature has reverted to its previous one. :-)

[vt]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

Now someone would probably pay you to design a cool signature like that, without having to ask

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

Originally Posted by goadam1

whew! It's from reedit. I was worried it was on rense.com

.
.
.
So you guys want official sources of research from a central bank on bitcoin eh? Well guess what... the Bank of Canada just published one this very day!

(Warning: you may fall asleep reading this boring and uninsightful 32 page academic paper about a subject matter whose conclusion is entirely predictable without having spent weeks analyzing data... Oh and the data they cite in their paper?... It's from one of the least trusted large bitcoin exchanges "BTC-E.COM" - a mostly anonymous bitcoin exchange supposedly run by a bunch of russian hackers and hosted out of lawless Bulgaria... oh but hey, this is a study from the Central Bank of Canada, so it's got to be trustworthy, right? :P )

SOURCE: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-conten.../wp2014-33.pdf







PS. Trust me, you will learn a hell of a lot more about bitcoin by reading http://reddit.com/r/bitcoin daily.

PPS. Ok, I'm done posting on this thread for today. :P

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

Ok, last one, I just couldnt resist. This just in yesterday....

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...evolution.html

George Osborne [the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer aka. Minister of Finance or Secretary of the Treasury] embraces Bitcoin as London aims to be centre of global financial technology revolution

Treasury to undertake study on risks and opportunities posed by new currencies

"....George Osborne is to launch a review to assess how the UK could become a leading global centre for Bitcoin and other virtual currencies. George Osborne has instructed Treasury officials to work on a study looking at the benefits and threats of digital currencies, which remain unregulated...... It is part of a wider push for the UK to become a world leader in financial technology......Key to the Government's long term economic plan is cementing Britain's position as the centre of global finance," the Chancellor will say. It's only by harnessing innovations in finance, alongside our existing world class knowledge and skills in financial services, that we'll ensure Britain's financial sector continues to meet the diverse needs of businesses and consumers, here and around the globe, and create the jobs and growth we all want to see in the future."

So, still think Bitcoin is a joke/passing fad? If so, the joke may be on you ;-)

[tastymannatees]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

All very fascinating if it evolves beyond where is now. My first thought as a business owner selling product all over the world is what a great way to "go off the Grid". Buy and sell product with no trail and then report no income to the tax-man.

My thinking is it would be the biggest threat ever faced by the established world governments as whole, no revenue, no power so the fight would be to the death with the entire resources like NSA, CIA etc. in full battle mode.

If Governments can see it coming they can plan and devise a program that would take it down in a week. One way would to run it up in price and crash it a few times so people lose allot of money and then let loose the dogs of media with the constant drumbeat about the how people lost all that money with those virtual currencies. Throw in a few Astroturfers (280,000 pro china astroturfers running amok) and maybe the virtual currencies are not destroyed but marginalized to so such an extent the effect is the same.

The little bitcoins are trying to be better a bitcoins, perhaps a little smug with in their decentralization and in how safe the digital wallets are but with the combined focused efforts of multiple governments to take them down I just don't think they will survive.

History is littered with the bodies of crushed rebellions by governments, the virtual currency may win the fight in 50 years but IMO not in the next 5 and at least not without much spilt blood.

[pescamaaan]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

All very fascinating if it evolves beyond where is now. My first thought as a business owner selling product all over the world is what a great way to "go off the Grid". Buy and sell product with no trail and then report no income to the tax-man.

you want to get off the grid by using a digital currency that tracks in a ledger every single use of that coin from now until eternity? don't be fooled into thinking bitcoin is anonymous. besides, the IRS has come out and ruled that bitcoin is to be taxed as any other property...you owe tax on any appreciation from the time you acquired the coin to the time you disposed of it. the tax man already has it's hands at the ready.

don't get me wrong, the idea of a p2p payment network that eliminates the need for 3rd party [expensive] verification of the transaction is very attractive. i just think it's premature to think btc or any digital currency is somehow some holy grail to usurp the traditional banking model

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

don't be fooled into thinking bitcoin is anonymous

I think you missed the part I posted above...

...by the end of this year this [anonymous bitcoin transactions] may be easier with
1) DARKWALLET (anonymous storage and transaction wallet)

2) .. and OPENBAZAAR (think decentralized SilkRoad, but likely to be more like a decentralized amazon.com in 10 years time).

Bitcoin wasn't designed to be anonymous from the start, but we already possess the technical ability to both make bitcoin anonymous when required, or create an brand new currency that is anonymous by default (i.e. DarkCoin & Monero)

[pescamaaan]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

i did miss it, thanks for pointing it out.

it'll be interesting to see where the whole digital currency space goes ..it's certainly in its infancy.

i'm very skeptical of anything being truly anonymous. where there's a will there's a way and the snowden leaks have proved there's a very strong will to subvert any anonymity, especially when there is criminal activity lurking in the background.

Tor was supposed to be anonymous too...but then we learn about compromised browser updates, govt run exit points, etc.

[Adeptus]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

All very fascinating if it evolves beyond where is now. My first thought as a business owner selling product all over the world is what a great way to "go off the Grid". Buy and sell product with no trail and then report no income to the tax-man.

Yes, it is a moral question that will face each individual, but each will interpret it differently depending on their philosophical perspective. How many people today think they are not taxed enough by their government (probably some % close to 0). How many people think that taxation should be X% lower than what it is...probably most people will fall on some scale of 'X'. For libertarians, the emancipation is - Finally! I can sleep with a clear conscious that my daily acts in society that I only do to put food on the table of my family (i.e. work) no longer contribute to the manufacturing of weapons and wars, that they no longer contribute to a government too large and ever over reaching and corrupt, and that by not paying any/as much tax, I am making my small contribution to the redaction of government expansion in every literal sense. The conservative will be having nightmares as his admired society is about to crumble in anarchy. He likes that his tax dollars are used to operate state and federal security (police, federal police, army, etc), for judicial systems that from his perspective work well enough most of the time, for needed garbage collection, city construction, etc etc. The Environmentalist will be torn that on one hand the capitalistic method will be brought to a screeching halt and the resources of the Earth will no longer be devoured so that this year's GDP numbers aren't exponentially higher than the GDP achieved 5 years ago and as a consequence a raping of the Earth at the same exponential rate; on the flip side the free-for-all society that zero taxation may enable is likely not to help protect sacred forests and the like.

Regardless, I see it as an inevitable outcome if an anonymous bitcoin-like system survives and flourishes. I also see that such "chaos" (the anarchist may choose "beauty" instead) will take decades to take hold, as for the time being and foreseeable future, governments wield all the power, the vast majority of people obey it, and that's not changing overnight.

My thinking is it would be the biggest threat ever faced by the established world governments as whole, no revenue, no power so the fight would be to the death with the entire resources like NSA, CIA etc. in full battle mode.

Yes, I agree, and this is a very interesting time. Will governments or departments thereof wake up quickly enough to see their likely inevitable futility if they do nothing, or will they do something to attempt to crush bitcoin, only to have it whack-a-mole back into existence with even superior government subverting technology? (think napster --> bittorrent)

If Governments can see it coming they can plan and devise a program that would take it down in a week.

A week? I'd like to bet a lot of money on that if I could, cuz I seriously doubt bitcoin could be crushed in 1 week by anyone, let alone a government that moves slower than molasses. I've discussed here previously on how bitcoin could be stopped:
1) Very temporarily (for a day or two ) by blocking TCP port 8333 at the Tier 1 ISP level. It would be quickly technically overcome, the solutions already exist.
2) Legally, by some executive order or congressional law banning bitcoin. This does not actually 'stop' bitcoin, it just stops law abiding citizens from using it.
3) Technically by successful executing a 51% attack, currently it would cost a mere few hundred million dollars, but 9 months to 1.5 years to execute.

One way would to run it up in price and crash it a few times so people lose allot of money and then let loose the dogs of media with the constant drumbeat about the how people lost all that money with those virtual currencies.

This has already happened more or less unintentionally. Bitcoin has seen around 5 major bubbles and pops in price; however, each new bubble is bigger than the previous one, so at this point there is still too much hope and a historic precedence that it will eventually just climb back up in price ;-)

Throw in a few Astroturfers (280,000 pro china astroturfers running amok) and maybe the virtual currencies are not destroyed but marginalized to so such an extent the effect is the same.

As I'm reminded on the Internet daily... The west is comprised of millions of sleeping 'sheeple'; however, there's far too many awakened ones to fall for that, even if they are an extreme minority. The paradox is that both assertions are laughable as they are extreme, but the lesser extreme of both is probably closer to reality.

The little bitcoins are trying to be better a bitcoins, perhaps a little smug with in their decentralization and in how safe the digital wallets are but with the combined focused efforts of multiple governments to take them down I just don't think they will survive.

Survive? Perhaps not, but be reborn and thrive again? That's almost guaranteed. As the saying goes..."Armies [or government] cannot stop an idea whose time has come"

History is littered with the bodies of crushed rebellions by governments, the virtual currency may win the fight in 50 years but IMO not in the next 5 and at least not without much spilt blood.

Ah but this rebellion is global and its attackers will be hidden and unidentifiable. Aka. "This time it's different!" (haha) <-- laughing cuz I know better, but it really does seem that way this time, at least right now :-D

Ask yourself this: Can a government ever stop a decentralized International anonymous force? Have we won the "war on terror"? ;-)

Take a few minutes and listen to one of the minds behind DarkWallet speaking on Hard Talk BBC... this is what the government is up against, and Cody Wilson already has a "1" on his scoreboard against a government "0" with his unstoppable 3D printed gun. That project was just a warm-up it seems. And even if they get to Cody Wilson, there are already too many like him willing to fight the power. As a security expert I listened to in person at a bitcoin conference last year said (paraphrase) "You could kill all of us in this room, but more programmers are being unleashed into the world every minute".

(Ignore the video title, it is an intriguing worthwhile interview... and no I do not subscribe Cody Wilson's philosophies, and from the 3 bitcoin conferences I attended in the USA, this is also not the philosophy most bitcoiners subscribe to; however there is definitely enough of them to cause a significant and inevitable disturbance in the force).

And here is the Timothy May Crypto Anarchist Manifesto that Cody Wilson "invokes" at the beginning of his interview in the video above. It was written in 1988 - pre-Internet! Talk about visionaire extraordinaire! In it, he describes not only bitcoin (the currency, the upcoming anonymization of the currency), but also the soon to manifest bitcoin 2.0 (electronic trust-less contracts for land titles and property rights), and anonymous 'black' markets (i.e. openbazaar video I posted above).

The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto

Timothy C. May A specter is haunting the modern world, the specter of crypto anarchy.
Computer technology is on the verge of providing the ability for individuals and groups to communicate and interact with each other in a totally anonymous manner. Two persons may exchange messages, conduct business, and negotiate electronic contracts without ever knowing the True Name, or legal identity, of the other. Interactions over networks will be untraceable, via extensive re- routing of encrypted packets and tamper-proof boxes which implement cryptographic protocols with nearly perfect assurance against any tampering. Reputations will be of central importance, far more important in dealings than even the credit ratings of today. These developments will alter completely the nature of government regulation, the ability to tax and control economic interactions, the ability to keep information secret, and will even alter the nature of trust and reputation.
The technology for this revolution--and it surely will be both a social and economic revolution--has existed in theory for the past decade. The methods are based upon public-key encryption, zero-knowledge interactive proof systems, and various software protocols for interaction, authentication, and verification. The focus has until now been on academic conferences in Europe and the U.S., conferences monitored closely by the National Security Agency. But only recently have computer networks and personal computers attained sufficient speed to make the ideas practically realizable. And the next ten years will bring enough additional speed to make the ideas economically feasible and essentially unstoppable. High-speed networks, ISDN, tamper-proof boxes, smart cards, satellites, Ku-band transmitters, multi-MIPS personal computers, and encryption chips now under development will be some of the enabling technologies.
The State will of course try to slow or halt the spread of this technology, citing national security concerns, use of the technology by drug dealers and tax evaders, and fears of societal disintegration. Many of these concerns will be valid; crypto anarchy will allow national secrets to be trade freely and will allow illicit and stolen materials to be traded. An anonymous computerized market will even make possible abhorrent markets for assassinations and extortion. Various criminal and foreign elements will be active users of CryptoNet. But this will not halt the spread of crypto anarchy.
Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions. Combined with emerging information markets, crypto anarchy will create a liquid market for any and all material which can be put into words and pictures. And just as a seemingly minor invention like barbed wire made possible the fencing-off of vast ranches and farms, thus altering forever the concepts of land and property rights in the frontier West, so too will the seemingly minor discovery out of an arcane branch of mathematics come to be the wire clippers which dismantle the barbed wire around intellectual property.
Arise, you have nothing to lose but your barbed wire fences!

--
.................................................. ........................
Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments.
Higher Power: 2^756839 | PGP Public Key: by arrangement.

[vt]

Re: Fed research shows Bitcoin usurping the USD by 2021-2026

http://www.cringely.com/2014/07/02/b...ly-goes-legit/