ME: the Diplomatic Game

[don]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

"The Caliphate vs. Everyone Else"
by Immanuel Wallerstein

In the endless geopolitical realignments of the Middle East, the Caliphate of the Islamic State (formerly ISIS or ISIL) seems to have frightened just about everyone else involved in Middle Eastern politics into a de facto geopolitical alliance. All of a sudden, we find Iran and the United States, the Kurds (both in Syria and Iraq) and Israel, Turkey and Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government, western Europe (Great Britain, France, and Germany) and Russia all pursuing in different ways the same objective: stop the Caliphate from expanding and consolidating itself.

This hasn't yet altered significantly other loci of geopolitical conflicts such as Israel/Palestine and Ukraine, but it is sure to have an impact on them. Of course, all these actors are pursuing middle-term objectives that are quite different. Nonetheless, look at what has happened in just the first half of August.

Nouri al-Malaki has been ousted as Premier of Iraq under the combined pressure of the United States, Iran, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and the Kurds, primarily because he resisted including a significant role for Sunnis in the Iraqi government. And why was that important? Because, for all these actors, it seemed the only way to undermine the Caliphate from within.

The United States has committed its drones and a new force of circa 1000 Marines and Special Forces to safeguard Yazidis and Iraqi Christians from their slaughter (an operation requiring de facto assistance by Bashar al-Assad), stopping the advance of the Caliphate on Erbil - the Iraqi Kurdish capital, where there is a U.S. consulate and a significant number of other U.S. citizens - and probably other things after a currently ongoing assessment in the field. President Barack Obama refuses to indicate an end date for this operation and therefore almost certainly will have left unfulfilled his signature promise for a total withdrawal from Iraq during his presidency.

The Turkish government has closed down the open border for anti-Assad forces into Turkey, previously a key element in their Syrian policy. Former Senator Joseph Lieberman, a known hawk and ardent supporter of Israeli policies, has publicly praised Obama for what he has just done, while the Iranians have abstained from criticizing him. The Saudis, who can't seem to decide on their Syrian strategy, have apparently decided that silence and mystery is the best tactic.

So what is next? And who is profiting from this realignment? There appear to be three obvious short-term winners. The first is the Caliphate itself. The re-entry of the United States into the Iraqi military struggle enables the Caliphate to portray itself as the major force defying the devil incarnate, the United States. It will serve to bring many additional recruits, especially from the western world. And one can expect that it will try to engage in hostile activities within the United States as well as western Europe. Of course, this short-term advantage would collapse, were the Caliphate to suffer serious military reverses. But it would take some time for this to occur, if ever. The army of the Caliphate appears still to be the most committed and trained military force in the region.

A second major winner is Bashar al-Assad. The outside support for anti-Assad forces has always been far less than decisive, and it is likely to dry up even further in the short term, as more and more Syrian opponents line up with the Caliphate.

The third major winner is the Kurds, who have consolidated their position within Iraq and improved their relations with the Kurds in Syria. They will now be receiving more arms from western countries and possibly from others, making their military, the peshmerga, into an ever stronger military force.

Are there clear losers? One, I suspect, is the United States. Unless the Caliphate were to crumble in the near future (something that seems most unlikely), this military effort will soon expose once again the limits of U.S. military abilities as well as the inconsistency of their public positions concerning Iraq, Palestine, and Ukraine. And Obama will have lost his biggest claim to geopolitical achievement. The U.S. public supports success, not a quagmire.

And there are at least three groups whose immediate future as winners or losers remains unclear. One is Iran. If the United States and Iran are on the same side both in Iraqand Afghanistan, can the United States refuse to come to some compromise agreement with Iran on the issues of nuclear energy? The Iranian position in this negotiation is at least strengthened.

A second is Hamas. The Israelis are already under heavy international pressure to reformulate their positions concerning Palestine. Will this emphasis on the dangers of the Caliphate serve as additional pressure? Most probably, but the Israelis will stall as long as they can.

The third is Russia. As I write this, the Kiev government is resisting the entry of Russian trucks that the Russians say is a humanitarian mission to aid the trapped and suffering inhabitants of Lugansk, which is surrounded by Ukrainian troops seeking to starve them into surrender. Is this truly different from the efforts of the Caliphate to starve the Yazidis on their mountain top into submission? If the United States and western Europe are in favor of humanitarian aid in one place, can they sustain the position of being against it in the other?

We are living in interesting times.

[Raz]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

My compliments to Mr. Gunness for maintaining his humanity in spite of every inducement to the contrary.

Chris Gunness, a spokesman for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees, succumbs to his emotions during a live interview with Al Jazeera. Gunness was being interviewed about an attack on a UN school shelter in which at least 15 people, mostly women and children, were killed. Gunness says 'What is happening in Gaza, particularly to the children, is an affront to the humanity of all of us'
http://www.theguardian.com/world/vid...nterview-video

"...a Government official, tears streaming down his face, burst into the dismal dining-room crying: 'Guernica is destroyed. The Germans bombed and bombed and bombed.'

"The German bombers appeared in the skies over Guernica in the late afternoon of April 26, 1937 and immediately transformed the sleepy Spanish market town into an everlasting symbol of the atrocity of war. Unbeknownst to the residents of Guernica, they had been slated by their attackers to become guinea pigs in an experiment designed to determine just what it would take to bomb a city into oblivion."


This is not a realistic or in any way fair comparison: the IDF has NOT launched an experiment to see how effectively a city can be "bombed into oblivion". They are attempting to destroy missile sites that are firing indiscriminately onto their civilian population, and the "collateral damage" is almost completely due to the siting of these missile launch pads next to hospitals and homes by the disgusting cowards of Hamas.

I am NOT a Zionist - I don't believe any of these groups has any claim whatsoever to the area called Palestine or "Judea and Samaria" or whatever.
If their is a temporal claim (there isn't) it belongs to the one group which nobody seems to give a damn about: the Christians.
Only the Rightful Owner can and will claim the land, but no one knows the day and hour when He will return to take it.

[vt]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

Obama lifts ban on Libyans attending flight school, studying nuclear science here

9/11 hijackers make their way through airport security--Abdulaziz al-Omari and Mohammed Atta.

Remember the aftermath of 9/11 when investigators made the chilling discovery that American flight instructors had unwittingly taught the Arab hijackers how to fly jumbo jets like the ones they plowed into the World Trade Center and Pentagon, killing some 3,000 innocents?
And how one of the dumber hijackers had raised suspicions, letting slip that he had no intention of seeking a pilot's license? But, you might not be surprised to learn, Washington wasn't really into taking seriously any alarms from unimportant places like Minnesota?
Turns out, President Reagan worried about terrorist hijackers using airplanes as weapons way back in 1983. He banned Libyans from taking flight lessons or nuclear studies in the United States.
Now, believe it or not, President Obama is lifting that ban because, aides say, post-Gaddafi Libya and its relations with the United States are "normalized."
Seriously? We just abandoned our embassy there last month.

Seriously!
A Homeland Security spokesman said rescinding the ban “would permit the educational exchange of information with Libyan nationals so they can reconstitute, operate and sustain their fleet to address threats posed by extremist groups seeking to derail the democratic transition."
S.Y. Lee assures everyone that any Libyan students would be subjected to "robust and thorough security threat assessments and vetting procedures." Uh-huh. Maybe more thorough than the 19 Arab hijackers got? Or the Boston Marathon bombing duo, whose names were handed to the FBI by Russian authorities long before their deadly deed?
This is the same Libya that brought us Lockerbie. The same Libya Hillary Clinton urged Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama to attack. Citing possible civilian slaughter in the anti-Gaddafi rebellion of 2009, Obama obeyed. He launched an air war that toppled the Libyan and left him to be torn apart by a mob despite having the best hat collection in dictator-dom.
Unfortunately, as the la-dee-dah Obama admitted in a recent newspaper interview, he hadn't given much thought to what comes after the chaos of war in a tribal land where "democracy" is a foreign concept. (Does any of this sound depressingly repetitious regarding Syria, Iraq and next, Afghanistan?)
What comes after a U.S. withdrawal and war chaos is -- Duh! -- more chaos, as warring militias and terrorist gangs cast their bullet ballots for leader of the oil-rich North African land. Or parts of it. Chaos of the sort that lead to the 2012 murders of four unprotected Americans in Benghazi. And of the ongoing chaos that's caused many countries to evacuate their diplomatic missions.
Surely, Obama's crowd isn't arguing that al-Qaeda's newest lawless playground is the new normal.
Homeland Security had promised Congress an update on the controversial revision last spring. Again, you might not be surprised to learn, this Obama administration promise is as dead as Gaddafi.
"It is extremely concerning," said Rep. Trey Gowdy, "that DHS is moving forward with these plans, but has not provided information on the policy change despite repeated requests from Members.” And with all the other bad news hanging over Obama's transparent White House, it looks now like they'll skate on this as well.
Talk about a new normal.




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[Woodsman]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

This is not a realistic or in any way fair comparison.

I disagree. History will not absolve us. Pray God will.

[Slimprofits]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

Israel is not purposely trying to kill innocent Palestinians.

You're nothing if not consistently certain about many things that just aren't provable.

[don]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

the IDF has NOT launched an experiment to see how effectively a city can be "bombed into oblivion". They are attempting to destroy missile sites that are firing indiscriminately onto their civilian population, and the "collateral damage" is almost completely due to the siting of these missile launch pads next to hospitals and homes by the disgusting cowards of Hamas.

Raz, I respect your opinions but this sounds exactly like an Israeli press release.

[vt]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

So how do you stop dozens of missiles that daily fall upon your cities with the express purpose of killing your civilian population? How would you address an enemy that has constructed over 15 tunnels that will deliver killing squads across your border?

Why is there a pan-Arab-Israel alliance to destroy Hamas? Why is Hamas firing missiles from civilian locations? How would any other nation react to such tactics that Hamas uses?

The critics never answer these questions because they know their condemnation of Israel is bankrupt.

[Shakespear]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

So how do you stop dozens of missiles that daily fall upon your cities with the express purpose of killing your civilian population?

I would start by not taking over more land and building on it settlements.
http://robertjprince.wordpress.com/2...tinian-crisis/

[Woodsman]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

So how do you stop dozens of missiles that daily fall upon your cities with the express purpose of killing your civilian population? How would you address an enemy that has constructed over 15 tunnels that will deliver killing squads across your border?

Why is there a pan-Arab-Israel alliance to destroy Hamas? Why is Hamas firing missiles from civilian locations? How would any other nation react to such tactics that Hamas uses?

The critics never answer these questions because they know their condemnation of Israel is bankrupt.

I think the Likudniks and the Neocons don't want them to to stop. War is the health of the Likud. There is a peace faction in Israel and the Palestinian territories but the extreme right kills them and turns them out of the public sphere using violence, fear and intimidation. I haven't condemned Israel, but I strongly condemn the men who do these crimes in her name. I don't consider Israel a synonym of Likud, Begin, Shamir, Sharon or Netanyahu. There are alternatives to war without end.

Rocket and mortar attacks against civilians are crimes no matter who commits them. I think the war is between Hamas and Likud and it seems to me as if the two of them have managed to turn everywhere between the Jordan and the Mediterranean into an occupied territory. Its always the people who suffer the cost of war between criminal gangs and their political fronts.

So many questions and all of them have the same answer. More violence, death and war; never ending war and a state of permanent fear and agitation in the interregnum. Forgive me VT, but I leave the field to you on this one. I have no interest in fueling a fire and can't conceive of a way where we reach consensus, so leave you in peace.

[don]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

Manifest Destiny is a bitch

[vt]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

Woodsman, this is indeed a decades long problem, with progress and setbacks. In a sense much of the Arab world now wants to co-exist with Israel instead of destroy it. We still see threats from Iran to blow up the nation with missiles. The problem with Hamas is that it's right next door.

As for pre 1967 borders, will they provide defensible borders? When the entire Arab world wanted to destroy Israel the result was 2 major regional wars. Any nation threaten with annihilation would want to prevent a repeat.

There is so much hatred and distrust it's difficult to see a solution.

We have much greater concerns with ISIS and radical Islamists. (we could consume terabytes of discussion about wars caused by religion but will not go there).
This battle may last for decades, and we can only pray for potential millions of innocent lives at risk. The problem is that these barbarians are using religion to take total power. Religion is just another way to control, but is not necessary as we've seen by non religious tyrants.


The settlement issue is valid, but so are borders that can be defended such as the Golan Heights.

In 2005 Israel did pull back settlements:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli...ment_from_Gaza

In 2012 plans were to add some setlements:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-and-...-construction/

[Raz]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

Raz, I respect your opinions but this sounds exactly like an Israeli press release.

And I also respect your opinions, Don.

So perhaps you could show me exactly how my facts are in error that the comparison of the IDF assault against Hamas' missle launchers with the Luftwaffe bombing of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War is wrong, both in intent and result?

[don]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

I'll pass on the Guernica analogy. The reasons you stated are what I was referring to, which show no critical context whatsoever, merely a repeating of the Israeli government's press releases. As far as historical analogies are concerned, I think the Manifest Destiny one is more apt in this case, as is the Warsaw Ghetto uprising, with the roles reversed.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

And I also respect your opinions, Don.

So perhaps you could show me exactly how my facts are in error that the comparison of the IDF assault against Hamas' missle launchers with the Luftwaffe bombing of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War is wrong, both in intent and result?

Here is what has really happened in the Levant since about 500 BC

Watch the video!

[Raz]

Re: ME: the Diplomatic Game

I'll pass on the Guernica analogy.

I thought you would; the comparison is ridiculous.

The reasons you stated are what I was referring to, which show no critical context whatsoever, merely a repeating of the Israeli government's press releases.

You should know by now I don't engage in thoughtless rhetoric and have more than a cursory knowledge of the history of the Levant, both secular and religious.

I am not a supporter of Israel for several reasons, one of which is found here: http://www.truetorahjews.org/rebmoshearyeh

And many more are found here: http://www.truetorahjews.org/rabbinic_quotations


Your quip that I sound like "an Israeli government press release" also shows “no critical context whatsoever”. I will address that issue in my reply to the two analogies you stated below.

Before the political rise of Sharon almost everyone in the US blamed the PLO and other terrorist groups; now most here seem to blame Israel – even in the present attacks begun by Hamas.

As far as historical analogies are concerned, I think the Manifest Destiny one is more apt in this case, as is the Warsaw Ghetto uprising, with the roles reversed.

I completely and totally disagree.


“Manifest Destiny” does indeed apply to Zionism and it goes back to the 19^th century, yet it is not primarily a religious movement but a political one, and the overwhelming majority of its adherents are atheists.

In addition to Herzl, Ben-Gurion and Jabotinsky we must add another great proponent of “Manifest Destiny” –

Mohammed.

I’m not going to waste my time in citing the numerous passages from the Koran and Haddith that show the commandments to extend Islam to the entire world, by force if persuasion proves unsuccessful, for the clear evidence of history makes this ‘manifest’.

Our messiah, err… president is actually correct when he says that Islam has been present from the very beginnings of our nation.
Here is evidence for that:

In March 1785, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams went to London to negotiate with Tripoli's envoy, Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman (or Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja). When they enquired "concerning the ground of the pretensions to make war upon nations who had done them no injury", the ambassador replied:


“It was written in their Koran, that all nations which had not acknowledged the Prophet were sinners, whom it was the right and duty of the faithful to plunder and enslave; and that every mussulman who was slain in this warfare was sure to go to paradise. He said, also, that the man who was the first to board a vessel had one slave over and above his share, and that when they sprang to the deck of an enemy's ship, every sailor held a dagger in each hand and a third in his mouth; which usually struck such terror into the foe that they cried out for quarter at once.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War



There will NEVER be a lasting peace between the Israelis and their Muslim “neighbors” during this present age. No matter how much the Jewish citizens of the Israeli state desire it, and no matter what territorial concessions they are willing to make – it will never be enough.

The reason is to be found in the fact that ALL territory that has once been occupied and ruled by Islam is a Waqf and must remain under the government of Muslims. It is to them a religious obligation.

Like the Palestinian Islamic groups, Arab Islamic movements do consider Jerusalem, indeed the whole of Palestine, which derives its religious significance from Jerusalem, a Muslim religious endowment (waqf). Muhammad Hamid Abu al-Nasr, the Supreme Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Society which delineates doctrinal attitudes for the Muslim Brotherhood Societies in Arab countries, including Hamas, states:

“We have never bargained and we shall never bargain over the land of Palestine. Palestine, all of Palestine, belongs to all the Muslims. The link between Palestine and the Muslims is derived from their commitment to the doctrine and the shari'a ... Therefore, bargaining over Palestine means bargaining over our faith, our shari'a and our holy shrines. It also means renouncing and disavowing our history, our martyrs, and our heroes ... Relinquishing Palestine is an act of treason ... Allah ruled that we should not relinquish our homelands to our enemies. He made it imperative for us to seek the means of power and strength, and to struggle against the enemies in order to regain what was usurped from us. This is the verdict of Allah and we shall not violate His verdict.”

http://www.pij.org/authors.php?id=423



“The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Muslim generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered; it, or any part of it, should not be given up. Neither a single Arab country nor all Arab countries, neither any king or president, nor all the kings and presidents, neither any organization nor all of them, be they Palestinian or Arab, possess the right to do that. Palestine is an Islamic Waqf land consecrated for Muslim generations until Judgement Day. This being so, who could claim to have the right to represent Muslim generations till Judgement Day?

This is the law governing the land of Palestine in the Islamic Sharia (law) and the same goes for any land the Muslims have conquered by force, because during the times of (Islamic) conquests, the Muslims consecrated these lands to Muslim generations till the Day of Judgement.” (The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement, 18 August 1988, Article Three)



As for Hamas: Taqiyya is always present in their ‘promises’.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas_Covenant


While Begin and Sharon were indeed terrorists, let’s not skirt over the terrorist actions of the Arabs living in Palestine before 1948: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab-Is...930s_and_1940s


You might want to do some reading as a refresher on the history of the Warsaw Ghetto and of Gaza because the analogy is poor. Arab armies attacked the Israelis in 1948; German armies attacked Poland in 1939; not the other way around.

Gaza was controlled by Egypt for almost twenty years and was only completely closed off by the IDF seven years ago after Hamas won the elections and took control. Comparing what the Nazis did to the Jews of Poland in Warsaw with the Gaza Strip border on the nonsensical statements like “Bush is Hitler”.

You are far too intelligent not to see that.


“The Gaza Strip acquired its current northern and eastern boundaries at the cessation of fighting in the 1948 war, confirmed by the Israel–Egypt Armistice Agreement on 24 February 1949. Article V of the Agreement declared that the demarcation line was not to be an international border. At first the Gaza Strip was officially administered by the All-Palestine Government, established by the Arab League in September 1948. All-Palestine in the Gaza Strip was managed under the military authority of Egypt, functioning as puppet state, until it officially merged into the United Arab Republic and dissolved in 1959. From the time of the dissolution of the All-Palestine Government until 1967, the Gaza Strip was directly administered by an Egyptian military governor. Israel captured the Gaza Strip from Egypt in the Six-Day War in 1967. Pursuant to the Oslo Accords signed in 1993, the Palestinian Authority became the administrative body that governed Palestinian population centers while Israel maintained control of the airspace, territorial waters and border crossings with the exception of the land border with Egypt. In 2005, Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip under their unilateral disengagement plan. In July 2007, following the 2006 Palestinian legislative election and the Hamas takeover in 2007, Hamas had functioned as the de facto ruler in the Gaza Strip, forming an alternative Hamas Government in Gaza.”


Here’s a short but good article on its history: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5122404.stm



As for the Warsaw Ghetto: It was created for the specific purpose of holding Jews who were rounded up, imprisoned and used as slave labor until they could be systematically exterminated.

“The Germans closed the Warsaw Ghetto to the outside world on November 16, 1940. The wall was typically 3 m (9.8 ft) high and topped with barbed wire. Escapees could be shot on sight. The borders of the ghetto changed many times during the next years.”

http://www.johndclare.net/Nazi_Germa...rsawGhetto.htm