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Re: Now mega !
Ouch! my hyperbole filter can't take the strain.
But yup that GDP revision was both alarming and laughable at the same time. Here's a "positive spin" article that glosses over some BIG holes in his "it's all good" thesis.
How Does 2014's Wretched Winter Compare With the Worst Natural Disasters in American History?
So in the 90's a comparable winter dropped GDP by less than 1% but in 2013 it drops it by 3%? I think the more telling part is the 8% drop in US exports. The bad winter was only a North American phenomenon, the rest of the world actually had a milder winter. And a cold winter will only delay exports, not stop them. So globally less people were buying.After the U.S. exited the recession that started off that decade, every single quarter of the 1990s saw real GDP growth of at least 1% -- except for the first quarter of 1993, when the Storm of the Century hit and knocked GDP growth down to 0.7%.
So yes, I suspect we had our first recessionary print in Q1. However there are lots of levers to pull and games to play for them to give us a positive quarter for Q2 so we won't have an official recession until we have an event to give TPTB cover for it (like a winter that somehow nobody thought we could have in NORTH america ;P )
Oh btw, personal antidote to the "It's the weather stupid" is that yes it was cold but I didn't change any of my spending habits. In fact I spent more than usual for extra heating and fuel for the car because Diesel efficiency really drops in the cold.
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