Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

[Mega]

Your thoughts gang?
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

This of course in a "free market" & after Lie-bor we know it is NOT free...........
Mike

[Fox]

Re: Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

Your thoughts gang?

Link?

but I don't think it's unreasonable considering the Fracking/Saudi America wet dreams is coming to an end. The thing with Iraq is that it's not just its 2.0m+ barrels of oil exports (which is significant on it's own). Its the knock on risk to Iran and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent Syria and Turkey.

The whole map of the Middle East was both artificial and unstable. Say what you want about them but Saddam, Gaddafi, the Ayatollah's, and the Sons of Saud are the heavy hands holding those boarders together. Start removing them and the whole region will fall back into the warring tribes of old.

It was always only a matter of time IMHO.

The only real limit to the $200/bbl oil call (or $2000/bbl for that matter) is the fact that demand is way down from the "Great recession in Stock Bull's clothing" grinds on. Gas prices in my area are already well above Katrina levels. And this is at a time when we have an oil glut. Throw in a actual supply disruption now and we'll have some pretty serious demand destruction.

Funny thing is that people will label this as the Black Swan that brings on the next recession, even though the next recession is imminent (We've all ready had one negative GDP call, just need one more to make it "official")

edit---
oops should have said "Assad", Gaddafi is (was) in Libya. I'm losing track of middle eastern despots being disposed of these days. In either case, Gaddafi's removal is all part of "more of the same" in this story. Egypt and Mubarak as well.

[Mega]

Re: Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

Sorry no link as i read it on Bloomberg & latter it was gone...........we looking @ $115 brent very soon...........trouble is "They" control oil price as same as Gold/Silver etc...NO FREE MARKET !!!!!!

If the Saudi get PISSED then they might cut production BIG time..............mean time Russia HAS cut off Gas!!!
Mike

[Fox]

Re: Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

hmm, perhaps in a CYA move they just won't ramp up.
OPEC Keeps Output Level Below Second-Half Demand Forecast
Nothing like being able to bend the world to your will by simply sitting on your hands.

But ya actual Free Markets have been dead for a quite a while now. Although it's a double edged sword, the only problem about ramping prices up in the face of rising supply and falling demand, TPTB run the risk of becoming the Egg Man.

They can't control reality for ever. Although they can control it long enough for us to go broke though 8(

[don]

An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

Prop Up A Failing System-Gregory Mannarino

Financial analyst and trader, Gregory Mannarino says the new Iraq crisis is no accident. Mannarino says, “They are letting this happen on purpose. . . . We have an economy that needs to borrow cash into existence. It is built upon the acquisition of debt–period. This cash needs to be borrowed into existence and then dispersed. They don’t even care where it goes. If this mechanism becomes impeded in any way, the whole thing will collapse. We do not have a wealth based economic model. We have a debt based economic model.. . . The United States of America has been involved in more military conflicts than every other nation combined, multiple folds, why? It’s the mechanism, the U.S. dollar being the world reserve currency, needs to be borrowed into existence and then spent. So, the propagation of war is paramount with this type of an economic model.” Mannarino thinks, “I believe they allowed this thing to develop and this whole thing to come apart because this is part of the scheme to keep the whole thing propped up.”

Mannarino predicted this type of move a few years ago in a book he wrote titled “The Politics of Money.” Mannarino goes on to say, “This is a very dastardly and evil mechanism. The propagation of war, their next step in keeping this propped up. What people also don’t understand is the U.S. military is mandated to protect the oil of OPEC nations. Iraq is an OPEC nation. We have to get in there and do something. So, it is a set up. The whole thing is a complete setup to keep this propped up, and this is being done in collusion with the Federal Reserve, our policy makers and the industrial military complex. This has to be understood for what it is, and we have all known that war was in the cards for a long time, and we are starting to see it unfold now.”

It appears there is no urgency to stop this rout by al-Qaeda related terrorists in Iraq. Mannarino contends, “They need to sell this, and it’s already being sold on the mainstream media to the average person out there. What they are going to do on the mainstream media is start showing more brutal acts by these people to get the fear brewing in people’s minds. I would not be surprised and fearful of a false flag to get people to back another war over there.” Mannarino goes on to say, “This has to happen. This is in defense of the petro dollar . . . this is the basis of every single thing that is going on right now. This is to defend the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency, to defend the petro dollar.”

Mannarino goes on to say, “This is how we know we are at the very, very end of this entire thing. The European Central Bank is making the most desperate move possible with negative interest rates. The Federal Reserve will be following suit with something else, and I don’t know what, and we have the propagation of war to keep the dollar propped up. That is what this is. . . . But it won’t last.”

Massive fraud has been keeping the system propped up since “the party over moment” of the 2008 financial meltdown. Mannarino says, “It is so evident, the amount of fraud across the board is epic. We have never seen anything like this before. It wasn’t this bad during the credit derivative bubble that devastated the global economy, and it has gotten worse. Their goal is to prop things up, and they don’t care what reality is. Forget about the last credit derivative bubble, it is much, much worse now. This is distortion being created by the world’s central banks on purpose. That one metric is allowing fraud to bleed across every asset class.”

From Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

[GRG55]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

...Mannarino goes on to say, “This is how we know we are at the very, very end of this entire thing. The European Central Bank is making the most desperate move possible with negative interest rates. The Federal Reserve will be following suit with something else, and I don’t know what, and we have the propagation of war to keep the dollar propped up. That is what this is. . . . But it won’t last.”

War is both inflationary and, in the correct circumstances, potentially distracting to the populace. The double whammy of a de-leveraging world (not just the USA economy) and the seemingly universal desire of politicians everywhere to retain their power would suggest a constructive confluence of motives to promote war is upon us. One wee example: It was not entirely accidental timing on the part of the Europeans, led by the French (who were unable to contain their disdain over Iraq circa 2003), to shoot up Libya...the lingering financial crisis recession and a President plunging in the polls as election day loomed played a lead role in that fiasco.

Perhaps Ray Dalio's "beautiful de-leveraging" needs to include the caveat "...as long as the war is not on your home turf".

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, the USA has plenty of imitators. The difference would seem those without the exorbitant privilege are less able to insulate themselves for long durations from the inevitable consequences.

[Fox]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

wow this guy wants to make me invest in tinfoil

What people also don’t understand is the U.S. military is mandated to protect the oil of OPEC nations. Iraq is an OPEC nation.

Just a point of order. One of the first order of business after the invasion of Iraq was cancelling it's OPEC membership. One of the big goals of kicking out Saddam was to free Iraq's oil of the OPEC's control.

As for the US military having a duty to protect OPEC countries; Well considering it contains Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Ecuador, all at least at one time sworn enemies of the US, I very much doubt it.

In any case, I like to bring up a quote from Napoleon.
"Do not ascribe to malice what can better be attributed to incompetence"

The Neocons over stepped their reach and now have created a situation out of their control. Sure there may be some kind of coordinated world effort to put the genie back in the bottle, but it's not going to work. If the Middle East is set alight, global economic collapse and social unrest will keep everyone's military at home.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

...Gregory Mannarino says the new Iraq crisis is no accident.

Mannarino says, ... the propagation of war is paramount with this...economic model.” Mannarino thinks, “I believe they allowed this thing to develop..war was in the cards for a long time, and we are starting to see it unfold now.”... we have the propagation of war to keep the dollar propped up.

That's and interesting concept.
I looked for evidence that the "meme machine" is beginning to beat the war drums and found this from the New York Times last Friday:

THE PITFALLS OF PEACE

The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth

JUNE 13, 2014


The continuing slowness of economic growth in high-income economies has prompted soul-searching among economists. They have looked to weak demand, rising inequality, Chinese competition, over-regulation, inadequate infrastructure and an exhaustion of new technological ideas as possible culprits.

An additional explanation of slow growth is now receiving attention, however. It is the persistence and expectation of peace.

link to full article http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/up...owth.html?_r=0

[Mega]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-ric...ddle-east-war/
$200 oil soon?
I like Jim very much, but he let me down ref the British £ (as did Keiser!)...........
Mike

[Fox]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

THE PITFALLS OF PEACE

The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth

Very funny, nothing like defying logic and critical thinking by bring up the "broken window" fallacy.

The title of the article needs to be changed slightly to keep it in proper perspective
"Lack of War Profiteering may be hurting economic growth"

It's great for a New York times writer to talk about the economic benefits of war. However I don't think many people from UK, Europe or the Soviet states would agree with him.

But hey, if I'm wrong and war is indeed a benefit to the global economy, I'll gladly pick up some rocks and smash his windows. After all, I'll just be doing my part to better the world. ;P

[Mega]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

British oil giants start to pull staff out of Iraq

Oil prices have spiked around $114 per barrel amid growing concern that Isis forces pose a real threat to Iraq oil production

Baiji oil refinery, north of Baghdad, pictured in 2009 Photo: REUTERS









By Andrew Critchlow

6:53PM BST 18 Jun 2014

3 Comments


British oil majors are beginning to pull workers out of Iraq as the battle between Sunni-Muslim Islamists and government forces north of Baghdad intensifies.

BP has said it is withdrawing non-essential staff and is monitoring the situation on the frontline closely although its oil field interests are concentrated in the south of the country near Basra. BP has a contract to operate the Rumaila field that is eventually expected to pump almost 3m barrels per day (bpd) of crude.



^{Brent crude for one-month delivery rose above $114 a barrel on Wednesday. Graph: Bloomberg}

Royal Dutch Shell is also closely following events as the Iraqi army prepares to launch a counter-offensive against Isis insurgents around the Baiji refinery, the country’s largest and a strategic asset in terms of the supply of petrol and liquid petroleum gas used for cooking.

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“The safety and security of our staff is our top priority. We don’t comment on specific security issues but we are following the situation in Iraq closely,” said Shell in a statement. The Anglo-Dutch company operates the giant Majnoon field, one of the world’s largest onshore oil areas, located about 340 miles south of Baghdad.
Oil prices have spiked around $114 per barrel amid growing concern that Isis forces pose a real threat to Iraq oil production, which weighs in at around 3.5m bpd - roughly four-times more than the UK pumps from the North Sea. BP and Shell shares gained 1.6pc and 1.5pc respectively as investors bet on disruptions in oil supply from Iraq, the second biggest producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

^{A large plume of smoke rises from what is said to be Baiji oil refinery (REUTERS)}
“The market is very closely watching the escalating violence in Iraq, a major oil producer. In the short term, higher oil prices may benefit some oil companies, but in the longer term, if it continues, it will result in an oil shock,” said Henk Potts, equity strategist at Barclays.
Baiji is the first operating refinery to fall into the hands of the Islamic fighters who had surrounded the facility for the past week.
Following the collapse of the regime of Saddam Hussein, international oil companies have rushed into Iraq to help boost the country’s output, which is targeted to eventually hit 9m bpd

[Slimprofits]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-ric...ddle-east-war/
$200 oil soon?
I like Jim very much, but he let me down ref the British £ (as did Keiser!)...........
Mike

It is probably going to take a major ******* event or a lot of time or a combination of both, for oil to get to $200.

Consider that the peak in August 2008 was $146 (???)

[flintlock]

Re: An Alternate Look at the Iraqi Oil Crisis

Well I suppose it is economically good for countries that supply arms and support services but do not have to suffer the consequences, like the US. Or better yet, war is good for some companies or individuals but not necessarily for all its people. We cant assume our leaders are operating with our best interest in mind. Corporate interests and political power have more say in the matter. The rest is just collateral damage and nice human interest stories of crippled soldiers coming home.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Boom Pickerings:- $200 oil if Iraq goes down........

Sorry no link as i read it on Bloomberg & latter it was gone...........we looking @ $115 brent very soon...........trouble is "They" control oil price as same as Gold/Silver etc...NO FREE MARKET !!!!!!

If the Saudi get PISSED then they might cut production BIG time..............mean time Russia HAS cut off Gas!!!
Mike

I think this is the link to the story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101758339




Without Iraq's oil, prices could hit $150-$200: Pickens

Michelle Fox | @MFoxCNBC
Friday, 13 Jun 2014 | 2:41 PM ETCNBC.com

If Iraq's oil supply goes offline, crude prices could hit $150-$200 a barrel, T. Boone Pickens, founder of BP Capital Management, told CNBC on Friday.
"That's where you have to kill demand with price. That's the only way you can do it, because oil won't be there," Pickens said in an interview with "Street Signs."

Crude hit a nine-month high Friday as fears intensified over the conflict in Iraq and its potential to disrupt country's the oil supply. U.S. crude—West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—hit a session high of $107.68 a barrel early Friday. Brent rose to an intraday high of $114.69.

President Barack Obama announced Friday he would not be deploying any ground troops in Iraq, and stressed that any other action would take several more days of planning. Insurgents have seized cities in northern Iraq and are only about 40 miles from Baghdad.


Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Pickens said long term, "there is plenty of oil around the world" and believes the U.S. can find the solution in a North American energy alliance with Canada and Mexico.
The U.S. produces 8 million barrels of oil a day, but uses more than 18 million barrels a day.

"We have the solution in North America if we just had the leadership in Washington to step up and say, 'let's make a deal,'" he said.

Pickens also called the lack of a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline "incredibly stupid on our part." The pipeline would connect Canada's oil sands to Texas refiners.

"Take the Keystone, wrap up North America and you are in really, really very, very good shape," he said.

—By CNBC's Michelle Fox