Phuoc Long Redux

[jk]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

The involvement of Iran would pose yet another security challenge for the White House, and raises the prospect of the U.S. and Iran fighting on the same side.

if the americans and iranians both "adopt" the iraqi shia, won't we make a sweet couple? as much as i'd like to think this might provide an impetus to an iranian-american detente, my native pessimism makes me doubt it.

i don't think we have a dog in this fight, and we would be wisest to stand back and let the saudi and gcc funded sunnis and the iranian funded shia go at it.

the global danger here is that this turns into a chinese- american proxy war, with china arming the shia via iran, and the u.s. providing weaponry, intelligence and "advisors" to the sunni's via the saudi's. militating against that will be china's desire to run a protection racket on the saudis, and the u.s.' global retreat and growing isolationism.

we live in interesting times.

[lektrode]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

The events of the past several hours makes you look pretty smart, JK.

+1

[Woodsman]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

MAP OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST



Note: The following map was prepared by Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters. It was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006, Peters is a retired colonel of the U.S. National War Academy. (Map Copyright Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters 2006).Although the map does not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it has been used in a training program at NATO’s Defense College for senior military officers.

historical note: those Greek City-States didn't get along for centuries . . . what was it with those guys

I like the movie better:



Now who says they don't make them like they used to?

[Woodsman]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

Are Frequent Wind style helicopters evacuations from the green zone in the near term future?

Cue up White Christmas...
------------

U.S. to Evacuate Many Staff Members From Baghdad Embassy

ERBIL, Iraq — The American Embassy in Baghdad plans to evacuate a substantial number of its personnel this week in the face of a militant advance that rapidly swept from the north toward the capital, the State Department announced on Sunday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/wo...=tw-share&_r=1

[jk]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

Cue up White Christmas...
------------

U.S. to Evacuate Many Staff Members From Baghdad Embassy

ERBIL, Iraq — The American Embassy in Baghdad plans to evacuate a substantial number of its personnel this week in the face of a militant advance that rapidly swept from the north toward the capital, the State Department announced on Sunday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/wo...=tw-share&_r=1

forget saigon. the motto is: no more benghazi's!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

I think it would be a bit premature to see a Saigon 75 response from the US.

ISIS does not possess the infrastructure to bite off more than it can chew.

I suspect it will need some time to consolidate its existing gains or risk being rolled back.

The financial gains from seizing capital from the Mosul central bank office(bout half a billion) will certainly help.

[jk]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

taking newton's first law of geopolitics one step further: a possibility triggered by the isis campaign would be a shiite pincer finishing off the syrian rebels: iranian led/advised shiite militias from baghdad surge west through northern iraq into syria, hezbollah fighters from lebanon surge east into syria as they have several times in the recent past, and syrian gov't forces surge north so that together they conquer the northern part of syria that remains in sunni hands.

the sunnis would mostly have to retreat to refugee camps in turkey, where they would potentially become permanent non-citizens, like the palestinians in lebanon and jordan, and a blight for the turkish. some might end up going to anbar province in iraq, effectively shut out of the iraqi and syrian economies, but surviving as the saudi "panhandle."

this would solidify the shiite crescent running from iran through northern and south east iraq, through syria, and through eastern and southern lebanon. [note in the rough map below - doesn't map to the province level- that although syria is majority sunni, the ruling group is alawite/shiite.]

[Slimprofits]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

.

[GRG55]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

.

That's a truly quaint (and western!) notion..."state boundaries" in the Islamic Middle East.

Expect the "meddling" of one Islamic state in another, across the region, to continue.

Indefinitely.

[don]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

That's a truly quaint (and western!) notion..."state boundaries" in the Islamic Middle East.

Expect the "meddling" of one Islamic state in another, across the region, to continue.

Indefinitely.

The Middle Ages encompass one of the most exciting periods in English History. One of the most important historical events of the Medieval era is the Hundred Years War.

Edward III, king of England, asserted that he in fact had a superior claimed to the throne because his mother was Philip the Fair's daughter. This, then, was one of the primary causes of the Hundred Years' War. Another cause of the Hundred Years' War was clearly economic conflict. The French monarchy tried to squeeze new taxes from towns in northern Europe which had grown wealthy as trade and cloth-making centers. Dependent as they were on English wool, these towns through their support behind English and Edward III.

The Hundred Years War and the Mercenaries

To make matters worse, war had become a more expensive proposition in the 14th century. Larger, healthier and better-trained armies were needed. Most governments began to rely on paid mercenaries to do their fighting for them. The problem with mercenaries is that they were expensive to obtain an even more expensive to retain. More often than not, the mercenary had no allegiance to anyone king and fought for the highest bidder. Furthermore, mercenaries were a competitive and quarrelsome lot.

The Hundred Years War - the Taxes

To counteract the high price of war, European monarchs imposed even more taxes upon the people. The French were most adept at this: there were taxes on salt, bread, and wine as well as taxes on the rights to use wine presses, grindstones and mills. And of course, there was the poll tax.

The Hundred Years War - the Factions

The last cause of the Hundred Years' War was factional conflict. By the 14th century the European nobility had become diluted with men who had entered the nobility not because they had a claim by virtue of birth but because of their wealth. Meanwhile, the older nobility was losing income due to declining rents. Many older nobles joined forces with mercenaries in order to maintain their position and status. Other nobles married into wealthy families while still others tried to improve their situation by the buying and selling of royal offices. What all this boiled down to was conflict. Nobles tended to join factions united against other factions. These factions included a great family, their knights, servants and even workers and peasants on the manorial estate. They had their own small armies, loyalties and even symbols of allegiance. The bottom line is that these factions were beginning to form small states within a state and contributed not only to the overall violence of the 14th century but also to the need of monarchs to keep their nobility under constant surveillance. This explains why Louis XIV, the Sun King, housed his nobility at Versailles -- it was so he could keep an eye on them.

The Hundred Years War - Aquitaine

The most pressing issue during the Hundred Years' War was the status of Aquitaine, a large province in south western France. According to feudal law, Edward III held Aquitaine as part of his fiefdom. Philip attacked this territory, claiming it was rightfully his. Edward's response was to join forces with the Flemish in 1337 and this was the principal cause of the war.

The Hundred Years War

The war, fought entirely on French soil, raged off and on for more than 100 years. English victories were followed by French victories, then a period of stalemate would ensue, until the conflicts again rose to the surface. During periods of truce, English and French soldiers -- most of whom were mercenaries -- would roam the French countryside killing and stealing. After the battle of Agincourt in 1415, won by the English under Henry V, the English controlled most of northern France. It appeared that England would shortly conquer France and unite the two countries under one crown. At this crucial moment in French history, a young and illiterate peasant girl, Joan of Arc (c.1412-1431), helped to rescue France.

The One Hundred Years War and Joan of Arc

At the age of 13 Joan believed she had heard the voices of St. Michael, St. Catherine and St. Margaret bidding her to rescue the French people. Believing that God had commanded her to drive the English out of France, Joan rallied the demoralized French troops, leading them in battle. Clad in a suit of white armor and flying her own standard she liberated France from the English at the battle of Orleans. Ultimately captured and imprisoned by the English, Joan of Arc was condemned as a heretic and a witch and stood trial before the Inquisition in 1431. Joan was found guilty and was to be burnt at the stake but at the last moment she broke down and recanted everything. She eventually broke down again and faithful to her "voices," decided to become a martyr and was then burnt at the stake and became a national hero.

seems the 100 years war had it all, from religious fanatics to mercenaries, all built on a econo-political power struggle, with lots and lots of bloodletting. No one can truly draw political boundaries like the 'west'.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

That's a truly quaint (and western!) notion..."state boundaries" in the Islamic Middle East.

Expect the "meddling" of one Islamic state in another, across the region, to continue.

Indefinitely.

How ironical. The notion of "state boundaries" is as arbitrary and top-down as the notion of differentiating between Western and Eastern, and, even better, in a discussion about the very region of the World in which this differentiating supposedly takes hold. Well done, GRG55.

[Woodsman]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

forget saigon. the motto is: no more benghazi's!

Forgetting Saigon is what enabled us to walk into this disaster. And while the rhyme of history with Vietnam may be a stretch from a strategic or operational standpoint, the political similarities seem to me a closer match.

What the American political class failed to do in South Vietnam it failed to do in Iraq: 1) create a political order the Iraqi people could accept as legitimate and defend; and 2) maintain domestic political support for a prolonged war against an irregular enemy.

Iraq post-Saddam was a whole-cloth creation of the United States and for entirety of its soon-to-be-brief history remains totally dependent for its survival on American military, economic and technical assistance. In that respect, it is identical to the short-lived Republic of South Vietnam, as is the unwillingness of a majority of Iraqis to defend the current arrangement. Similar too is the reaction of the American public with regard to their support for continuing engagement. It's just not there.

The Iraqis can read history too and know we abandoned the South Vietnamese to their fate. Would anyone be the least bit surprised if they anticipated a similar outcome and planned accordingly for the inevitable civil war to follow? And will anyone be surprised when we finally do abandon them?

If and when ISIS forces start threatening the Green Zone, the speed of the collapse and the optics of a hurried withdrawal will also seem quite familiar.



In my view the adventure in in Iraq collapses for much the same reasons as failure in Vietnam. Where the best and brightest under Johnson and Nixon failed to create a politically legitimate and militarily viable South Vietnam, so too the worst and dimmest in the Bush and Obama administration failed in Iraq. And by failing to sustain domestic political support for its political objectives in Iraq, they repeat Johnson and Nixon's error in Southeast Asia.

In my mind, it begs the question of how legitimacy could be conferred on an effort that began in every respect as illegitimate with regard to its stated cause and ends. And this is true both for Vietnam and Iraq. In that respect, failure seemed preordained in both cases.

[don]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

Well put, Woodsman.

but will the Montagnards of Iraq be allowed US relocation?

• During the Vietnam War, the Montagnards had contact with US Forces, as the highland area was very strategic. Many fought alongside American soldiers and became a major part of the U.S. military effort in the Highlands. Montagnard bravery and loyalty earned them the respect and friendship of the U.S. military forces as well as sympathy for the Montagnard struggle for independence.

and if the Kurds outlive their usefulness will they be allowed in?

so many questions . . . .

[jk]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

iraq- civil/ethnic war which, having unleashed, we're trying to paper over. previously papered over by the ruthless and repressive regime of saddam.

vietnam- we created a phony "civil" war. the vietnamese made their wishes clear at dien bien phu with the french in 1954 iirc. the french left and we stepped in.

we couldn't CREATE a legitimate gov't in "south vietnam" because it was an artificial entity. there was one vietnam. we tried to make two pieces out of one.

we can't create a legitimate gov't in iraq because there IS NO SUCH THING. we tried to make one piece out of three.

[GRG55]

Re: Phuoc Long Redux

How ironical. The notion of "state boundaries" is as arbitrary and top-down as the notion of differentiating between Western and Eastern, and, even better, in a discussion about the very region of the World in which this differentiating supposedly takes hold. Well done, GRG55.

Would you care to draw me a boundary on a map between "Western" and "Eastern". Dotted or solid, either will do...

[And those who do not understand the profound influence that specific religions have played in determining those two connotations that I used will have great difficulty understanding much of what is going on in the greater Middle East. There are few things I find more amusing than a fiercely secular journalist (and we have a lot of those here in Canada) trying to explain events in the Middle East to my fellow citizens]