FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

[Woodsman]

I know one who got it right more than a few times.

An astonishing record – of complete failure
By Tim Harford

The record of failure remains impressive. There were 77 countries under consideration, and 49 of them were in recession in 2009. Economists – as reflected in the averages published in a report called Consensus Forecasts – had not called a single one of these recessions by April 2008.

This is extraordinary

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/14e32...#axzz33DiOUDUG

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

The reason why they get forecasts wrong is simple: if they told the truth they would lose their jobs or not get a job in the first place. It is all about smoke and mirrors and selective interpretation to suit certain interested parties. The little guy on the street does not stand a chance if they believe all that BS.
Conclusion: do your own research, do not follow the crowd and read itulip etc.

[Woodsman]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

The reason why they get forecasts wrong is simple: if they told the truth they would lose their jobs or not get a job in the first place. It is all about smoke and mirrors and selective interpretation to suit certain interested parties. The little guy on the street does not stand a chance if they believe all that BS.
Conclusion: do your own research, do not follow the crowd and read itulip etc.

No doubt. Been there and bought the t-shirt.

[GRG55]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

I know one who got it right more than a few times.



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/14e32...#axzz33DiOUDUG

A couple of excerpts:

"...This is extraordinary. Bear in mind that this is not the famous complaint from the Queen that nobody saw the financial crisis coming. The crisis was firmly established when these forecasts were made. The Financial Times had been writing exhaustively about the “credit crunch” since the previous summer. Northern Rock had been nationalised in the UK and Bear Stearns had collapsed in the US. It did not take a genius to see that trouble was on the way for the wider economy...

...Predictions from multinational organisations such as the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have remained very similar to the private sector consensus – similarly bad, that is..."

I found iTulip in 2006. When I woke up one morning in the summer of 2007 to the BBC pictures of the run on Northern Rock I knew the predicted financial market upheaval that I had been reading about on this site was well and truly underway.

I am an engineer, not a psychologist, but I am firmly of the view that we humans need to be able to imagine something before we will accept or acknowledge its possibility..."I'll see it when I believe it". I don't see that the majority of economists (or Central Bankers) are exempted.

[GRG55]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

So what does "the world" believe that might be suspect...could be entertaining to compile an iTulip list. Here's my start:

1. A recession in China is "impossible"

2. Interest rates have no where to go from here but up.

3. 50% youth unemployment in parts of Europe has no consequences compared to the necessity for (German sponsored) austerity.

4. Now is a good time to buy a house.

5. Oil prices have reached "a permanently high plateau".

[Slimprofits]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

So what does "the world" believe that might be suspect...could be entertaining to compile an iTulip list. Here's my start:

1. A recession in China is "impossible"

2. Interest rates have no where to go from here but up.

3. 50% youth unemployment in parts of Europe has no consequences compared to the necessity for (German sponsored) austerity.

4. Now is a good time to buy a house.

5. Oil prices have reached "a permanently high plateau".

Regulations put in place in the US, UK and EU after events of 2007-2008 will prevent the next crisis and have ended TBTF. The two biggest whoppers going today.

[Slimprofits]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

I know one who got it right more than a few times.



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/14e32...#axzz33DiOUDUG

I wonder if they're all using the same "tools"? I put that word in quotes because their "tools" are useless.

Let's see, there's Efficient Market Hypothesis as it supposed to relate to financial markets. What else?

[astonas]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

So what does "the world" believe that might be suspect...could be entertaining to compile an iTulip list. Here's my start:

1. A recession in China is "impossible"

2. Interest rates have no where to go from here but up.

3. 50% youth unemployment in parts of Europe has no consequences compared to the necessity for (German sponsored) austerity.

4. Now is a good time to buy a house.

5. Oil prices have reached "a permanently high plateau".

6.

Regulations put in place in the US, UK and EU after events of 2007-2008 will prevent the next crisis and have ended TBTF. The two biggest whoppers going today.

Sure, I'll bite. Here's some topics for discussion:

7. US-style (i.e. Anglo-saxon) economic hegemony is both viable and sustainable.

8. Even if rising powers with other systems do eventually gain economic dominance, the transition will occur peacefully.

9. Mutually assured destruction ensures that there will never be another world war, or even a war between major powers.

[jk]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

6.

Sure, I'll bite. Here's some topics for discussion:

7. US-style (i.e. Anglo-saxon) economic hegemony is both viable and sustainable.

8. Even if rising powers with other systems do eventually gain economic dominance, the transition will occur peacefully.

9. Mutually assured destruction ensures that there will never be another world war, or even a war between major powers.

there are some of these i really hope are not proven wrong.

[astonas]

Re: FT: An astonishing record – of complete failure

there are some of these i really hope are not proven wrong.

Me too, jk, me too. I'm just less optimistic than I was before.