Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mega]

Every time i think thats it.............BANG killed again!

BTW IMF not happy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27588394
Mike

[Adeptus]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Meanwhile in Bitcoin....

[Mega]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would of 3 people whom had Ponzi coins.....sorry bit coins & when it was time to cash them in, they NEVER saw the cash !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mike

[Adeptus]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would of 3 people whom had Ponzi coins.....sorry bit coins & when it was time to cash them in, they NEVER saw the cash !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mike

Ouch... they probably got 'goxxed' ? (Mt.Gox exchange fraud). To be fair, this isn't a problem with bitcoin, but with bad actors, much like MF global or the like.
I for one still anticipate at least another 3-5 major uptrending waves in user adoption and inflow of cash into bitcoin, each one easily pushing the price up 2-10x. This over the next 5 years, so I'm probably far from cashing out.

WAVE#1: 2014-2015: US government passes regulatory law to make clear what is and not legal and how with bitcoin. Wallstreet 'smart money' then goes deep into bitcoin.
WAVE#2: 2014-2016: Wallstreet creates & sells financial instruments/derivatives tied to bitcoin to hedgefunds, pension funds etc. They are already thinking about it. FYI, I attended the NYC bitcoin conference in April2014, they are salivating over it!
WAVE#3: 2015-2016: At least 1 major Internet giant (Facebook, Ebay, Amazon, Skype, Google, Alibaba, Yahoo, etc) flips the switch and starts accepting payment in bitcoin. Within 1-2 years, everyone else follows.
WAVE#4: 2015-2016: At least 1 major bricks and mortar store accepts bitcoin (i.e. walmart, starbucks, toyota, wallgreens, Chevron gas stations, Verizon, and heck maybe even a major bank).
WAVE#5: 2016-2020: Once many recognizable online retailers accept bitcoin and once it becomes easy/transparent to use, regular people start to use it.
WAVE#6: 3rd world Sometime between wave 3 and 5, the 3rd world countries wake up to the fact that remittances can be done for pennies per transaction, instead of 10,20,30 or 40% of money received from family members in 1st world countries (i.e. via Western Union & the like). Also, in light of extreme inflation currency countries (Venezuela, Argentina, Ukraine), bitcoin adoption will grow at much faster rates.

In short, it's still very early stages. Also, from a small business bricks and mortar perspective, acceptance of bitcoin globally grew by 10-100 fold (!!) in 1 year from 2013 to 2014 as per below. If this trend continues, in 2-3 years you can multiply each number in the bottom map x 4 and add 2 zeroes to the end.

As one guy said... bitcoin price is either going to zero, or to super hero.





We are here...

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Adeptus you might be right, however, it takes a lot of guts to buy into something with no intrinsic value and wild valuation swings at $500 a ''coin''.

I am beginning to believe that whoever survives this coming crises it will involve a lot of luck. The normal parameters of investing logic and economic analysis seems to have been dissipated. Whether the safe havens are real estate, gold, bitcoin or whatever I do not know. The problem is that I just feel that no-one else knows either!

[Adeptus]

Bitcoin

Adeptus you might be right, however, it takes a lot of guts to buy into something with no intrinsic value and wild valuation swings at $500 a ''coin''.

I am beginning to believe that whoever survives this coming crises it will involve a lot of luck. The normal parameters of investing logic and economic analysis seems to have been dissipated. Whether the safe havens are real estate, gold, bitcoin or whatever I do not know. The problem is that I just feel that no-one else knows either!

First, sorry I hijacked your thread Mega, but I don't feel too bad considering this must be like the 20th "gold getting killed thread" :P

DRumsfeld2000, it took just as much if not even more guts to invest in it at $30 and even $2 (which I regretfully did not); however, having attended 3 North American bitcoin conferences in the past year, I can see that some of the smartest techies are getting into bitcoin, that it is the new "hot" thing in Silicon valley for venture capitalists, and that the adoption rate (while still tiny at present) is growing by leaps and bounds. I could go on, and have in various other threads regarding bitcoin; however, as you pointed out there is still *extreme* risk, not only in the volatility but in the long term survivability. At the end of the day it is open source software that somebody can copy & improve upon and various groups are already doing so (I'm not talking here about "alt-coins", but major improvements upon crypto-currencies).

Lastly, whilst I'm very enthusiastic about bitcoin in the short-mid term , I think from a pure economics perspective alone, never mind all the technical complexity of bitcoin, it is doomed to long-term failure or replacement. The extreme deflationionary model combined with extreme periods of volatility do not make for a viable long term currency. I don't regard bitcoin as a long term investment, but I think it still has a good 2-5 years left at least - providing no black swan threats occur (i.e. government ban/oppressive regulatory environments, 51% mining attack, software bug, etc).

Bitcoin is a very complex system, and at this stage it is fraught with risks - fraud, computer crashes/lost/stolen wallets, price volatility, technology survivability, government regulatory risk etc etc. The bottom line is that whatever you invest in bitcoin, the downside could be as extreme as 100%; however the upside from here could still be 50,000% - and for that reason, I'm significantly invested (currently aprox 20% of my invest-able assets excluding real estate).

PS. I have over 20 years of IT work experience and have spent by now a few thousand hours studying/reading about bitcoin and crypto-currencies in general. If I didn't feel like I had a good enough understanding, I wouldn't have invested in it at all.

Good luck

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just for you Mega: a bad projection from Armstrong.


Gold For the Close of May
Posted on May 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

GCNYNF-D 5-28-2014

Gold is moving into the June seasonal low on schedule. A closing for the month on a Nearest Futures basis tomorrow below 1251 should result in the sharp decline. A monthly closing BELOW 1192 will warn serious of a sharp decline that will more than likely break the $1000 level.
C A U T I O N is highly advised.

More positive longer term view from Armstrong:-


Precious Metals
Posted on May 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,
As someone who was taken in by the gold and silver bugs and went all in 3 years ago I am now left out of pocket and can’t sell my investments as I’d lose nearly half. As I am only a small time investor how much longer do I now have to wait before the cycle turns again so I can recoup my money back?
Thanks for all your assistance, your views from behind the curtain are truly enlightening.
Kind regards
L
ANSWER: We are preparing the gold forecast report. It is likely to press lower and you have to consider it may bottom in the $900 area. That is the risk. Will it rise thereafter? Yes, of course. I have disagreed with the gold promoters because they recklessly sell ideas without experience as a trader or respect for the people they mislead. This is not a soap box to push your beliefs upon someone else.
It is always about timing. Yes, there will be a default on the national debts and there will be a currency reset. Those things are as inevitable as death itself for all things die, including governments. Anyone can say that. It is common sense that the current monetary system will not survive unless you work in government for then they claim they are the exception to economics because they are government. There are no exceptions.
What our models are about is simply trying to ascertain the timing by looking at HOW LONG it takes these to develop. You cannot determine that by personal opinion. My personal guess would not be any better than someone else. Who knows. The point is to try to quantify this with unbiased modeling – not personal opinion. What someone “thinks” will happen may be good for conversation at a bar. It does not form a foundation upon which to invest.
GCNYNF-M 5-1-2014
Here is the model just using the Monthly Reversals on one level. This is not some contest for personal opinion. It is simply what is the market doing yes or no. Opinion as to manipulations, governments, whatever, is nice for talk. However, you cannot trade on opinion unless you wish to lose everything because it is human emotion that creates the boom and bust cycle. This is my point. EVERYTHING rises and falls. Only a trader survives. There is a time to BUY and there is a time to SELL. There are no exceptions. Claiming there is some dark force at work is absurd. Who cares what the reason is for a rally or decline. The market is always right and it does not matter anyway for the markets move in ANTICIPATION of what they expect might happen regardless if it does or not.

[aaron]

Re: Guess what getting K I L L E D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Finster talked about this happening in the paid section. I bought some puts against one of those double long gold ETFs. They are in the money now. Others were buying futures.