Be careful of Martin Armstrong

[DRumsfeld2000]

I read today one of his free comments on the Russian/Chinese gas deal. Someone had asked if this was a nail in the side of the US$. Armstrong states that Chinese trade flows in Yuan are less than 10% so the deal is insignificant. I had read recently that the percentage of trade flows in Yuan was north of 18% so I double checked from another source. I do not think that 18% and rapidly growing is insignificant.

Armstrong is wrong:- http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busi...-30232162.html

Armstrong has also made other questionable statements in the past. Be careful as I have begun to have serious doubts about this guy.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

That's a good find DR2000, but the idea that there will be one major pin-pointable (cause) nail in the coffin (camel back breaking hair, final piece of sand that topples the pile, etc.) for the USD is probably a fantasy to begin with. This Gazprom deal is likely a catalyst in the expansion of the Yuan as a major currency and that in turn is possibly a catalyst towards the lessening of the reach of the USD, etc. If I may borrow from EJ (on another, similar topic), it's a (complex) process, not an event.

[Mega]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

.........................& i wish that "Process" would F*cking well speed up!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mega

[don]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

If it's so insignificant, why has every country that has attempted a less-of-the-dollar energy exchange been either attacked, sanctioned or endured regime change attempts. Coincidence?

[shiny!]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

Thanks for the heads-up, DRumsfeld2000. I mark Armstrong's turn dates on my calendar to see if there's any validity to his number theories, but other than that I don't "follow" him. He did call the Ukraine as a flashpoint for a new major war long before violence erupted there. He might have been right about that. Cold war? Hot war? Economic war? I don't know, but the Ukraine does seem to be the unfortunate epicenter of something big.

If it's so insignificant, why has every country that has attempted a less-of-the-dollar energy exchange been either attacked, sanctioned or endured regime change attempts. Coincidence?

It'll be interesting to see how the U.S. responds to this latest slap to dollar hegemony now that bigger creditors are involved. Russia/China ain't Libya and Iraq.

[GRG55]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

...It'll be interesting to see how the U.S. responds to this latest slap to dollar hegemony now that bigger creditors are involved. Russia/China ain't Libya and Iraq.

I don't think the gas deal, on its own, is any major threat to the USA reserve currency status. It is just another in a string of bilateral trade arrangements between various countries, generally with China as one counterparty.

The Chinese will do business with anyone. But rarely on anything but their own terms. They have a long standing relationship with Iran, including the barter trade of weapons for oil during the Iran sanctions. But they have never seen the Iranians as dependable, reliable suppliers of energy. Same applies to the Russians.

Unlike the Europeans, who persist in dismantling their existing energy infrastructure (coal and nuclear) and obstruct the development of viable alternatives (LNG import terminals), the Chinese will not allow themselves to become overdependent on Russian gas or oil, and will continue to play off once source against another in this great global game.

As for Armstrong (M), he persists in the belief that Syria was all about an alternate gas pipeline route to Europe from the Gulf. Anybody who thinks that has absolutely no understanding of Arab politics and history.

[aaron]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

All news I have read discusses this deal in dollars. $10 dollars per unit of gas.

What wealthy person would sell anything on a long term contract for a currency that has faltered several times already? These people are rich businessmen. They do not care about petty wars and nationalism. They want to get paid.

This deal appears to be a $400 trillion dollar vote of confidence in the U.S. dollar as continued reserve currency. More stuff priced in dollars, the better. Am I missing something here?

[GRG55]

Re: Be careful of Martin Armstrong

All news I have read discusses this deal in dollars. $10 dollars per unit of gas.

What wealthy person would sell anything on a long term contract for a currency that has faltered several times already? These people are rich businessmen. They do not care about petty wars and nationalism. They want to get paid.

This deal appears to be a $400 trillion dollar vote of confidence in the U.S. dollar as continued reserve currency. More stuff priced in dollars, the better. Am I missing something here?

It is more like a barter deal, where the underlying value of the bilateral currencies doesn't really matter. The yuan is already declining in value against the US$, and likely to continue as the Chinese economy slows as it goes into a structural shift away from the bad debt driven investment frenzy that drives so much of its apparent GDP in recent years.

The fact that China is slowing will hit the ruble exchange rate also (the same way it has already hit the Rand, Real and OZ$),,,