The Tesla Put

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The Tesla Put

That works in the driveway only. Once you're on the road it's up to the batteries to provide all the power for the vehicle. Another common scenario is that cold is accompanied by snow and ice. So, it's 0 degrees F, you're running the defroster, have gloves on because your car can barely get the cabin to 45 Degrees F and you're stuck in traffic. Suddenly your xx mile range is completely consumed by heating the cabin and batteries in stop and go traffic. Meanwhile, the low friction environment means you're getting almost no energy from regenerative braking, so the stop portion of the traffic flow is not helping either.

Electric vehicles are still toys for the rich, but then most technology starts out that way. Maybe they will catch on, maybe not, but the government should keep out of this one.

When cops, soldiers and the president are relying on EV's for mission critical transportation I'll consider it for my family. You can always tell a stupid law by whom is NOT covered by it.

BTW EV's don't pay the fuel surcharge for road taxes. There could be a surcharge on all electricity delivered to an EV to cover road maintenance, (with a voluntary x2 if the electricity is generated by coal).

All good points, LorenS.
I did not mean to imply that heaters somehow overcome cold weather problems for batteries.
Instead I meant to reinforce that it's a true problem, and it's pretty widely known that batteries do not work well when cold.

Today most major auto makers offer a plug-in EV, and they are starting to sell quite a few.
Here are some sales numbers from this site http://insideevs.com/july-2014-plug-...s-report-card/



It will be interesting this winter and next winter to see if folks in northern states are surprised and upset that their new car barely works in January.

[BK]

Re: The Tesla Put

Tesla Motors share price = tulip bulbs of 2010s

$34 Billion market cap for a company in an industry with under 500,000 customers.

There may be more people who own a share of Tesla (122 million shares outstanding) than who own or are interested in buying an electric car.

Imagine if Apple was valued at $34 Billion and only had 100,000+ total customers (even if an Apple was charging $70K-$100K per computer).

Amazing.

[EJ]

Re: The Tesla Put

Tesla Motors share price = tulip bulbs of 2010s

$34 Billion market cap for a company in an industry with under 500,000 customers.

There may be more people who own a share of Tesla (122 million shares outstanding) than who own or are interested in buying an electric car.

Imagine if Apple was valued at $34 Billion and only had 100,000+ total customers (even if an Apple was charging $70K-$100K per computer).

Amazing.

One hard learned iTulip rule: Never try to talk a dreamer out of his dream when he's in the nirvana part of the dream, the moments where he's rich, looks like Brad Pitt, and always gets the girl -- in his dream.

Deep REM sleep. Not a good idea to wake him even if you could. And what's the point? His dream, if he's too heavily invested in it, will become a nightmare soon enough.

The dream is in his own mind and those of the rest of the dream hive. Watch them in wonder. That's all you can do. I've talked about making a small bet in the form of way out-of-the-money Jan. 2016 puts, but guessing at when the dream ends is exceedingly difficult.

I think TSLA investors are missing the trends in ICE autos.

GM Quietly Cancels 1500 Versions of Full-Size Vans

End of the Ford Econoline marks a new era for great American vans

These are being replaced by the new, high fuel mileage European vans like the Ford Transit.

The trend of high gasoline prices and falling real incomes has been driving auto sales since the end of the last recession. The U.S. auto fleet it turning over for high mileage new autos.

Economics always wins in the long run. Tesla may possibly in four or five years, if the "gigafactory" is completed, have an EV it can sell at no profit for $35,000 and double or even triple the size of its tiny total available market in so doing. But by that time the company will be competing with $30,000 diesel hybrids that get 100MPG, travel 1000 miles per tankful, accelerate as well as an EV and refuel at readily available fueling stations in minutes rather than in 30 minutes at rarely available fast charging stations.

[LorenS]

Re: The Tesla Put

All good points, LorenS.
I did not mean to imply that heaters somehow overcome cold weather problems for batteries.
Instead I meant to reinforce that it's a true problem, and it's pretty widely known that batteries do not work well when cold.

Today most major auto makers offer a plug-in EV, and they are starting to sell quite a few.
Here are some sales numbers from this site http://insideevs.com/july-2014-plug-...s-report-card/



It will be interesting this winter and next winter to see if folks in northern states are surprised and upset that their new car barely works in January.

It is certainly good advice to EV owners to keep the batteries as warm as possible, plug in heaters would be one solution, it's just that in winter it probably won't be enough. This continues to relegate the EV to fair weather use which means it's not going to be a viable replacement for conventional vehicles.

I would consider an EV for my kids. It would be in town use only and for short trips. BUT it would also have to seat at least two and cost well under $10k. I can get a nice Honda Civic for less than that and even with $5 gas the Civic is a good deal. (plus the Honda can handle snow just fine)

[BK]

Re: The Tesla Put

EJ,
It has taken me a long time to learn "not to wake a dreamer'.

When people speak of Elon Musk and Tesla it reminds me of the scenes from the Manchurian Candidate because people always say "Elon Musk is America's greatest innovator and entrepreneur, and Tesla Motors vehicle is the most innovative vehicle ever'.

Most of the time the person chanting about Elon and Tesla Motors have absolutely no understanding of engines, circuits, batteries, or ever worked with an engineer in their life.

Why don't the press releases for the Gigafactory reveal that Panasonic did a private placement for Tesla stock back in 2010, why wouldn't they double down on their bet. But, Elon Musk being the expert promoter is sure never to mention that Panasonic has owned 1.4 Million shares of TSLA since 2010 - Panasonic share of Tesla is currently worth $395 Million (so Panasonic can more than afford to make a further investment in the Gigafactory)
http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedet...leaseID=526928

[charliebrown]

Re: The Tesla Put

i'm seeing chevy volt's on true car for 33K, plus if we follow the IRS rules

For vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009, the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500.

we are looking at a tax credit of about 7,417 for the volt. Which brings the price down to 25.5K. Not too bad. But I am a cheap used car guy. My last car cost 8K. A new chevy spark (ice) is roughly 13.5K and gets 32/38 mpg. A chevy ev spark (82 mile range) is 27K, and qualifies for the full 7,500 tax credit making in 19.5K. $6000 buys a lot of gas for a spark (55,000 miles of gas), and electricity isn't free or convenient yet. After I get home from a work day commute I cannot take an unexpected trip in my EV out of the county.

From a purely cost basis, ICE wins. The increase in sales must be rich tree huggers thinking they are saving the planet, or maybe freeing us from the crazy oil men. I try to live green in simple ways, but a car is just too big of an investment for me to make to "save" the planet. Maybe a citi dweller could justify the cost for a pure ev, but then even they don't use much gas if they are commuting a few miles each day. For the average two car family one EV might work
as long as the other vehicle is ICE. Even still, as someone pointed out here and 80 mile range is not that much. Especially caught in a blizzard in traffic.
I was once in one that took me 4 hours to drive 20 miles and the temp was 20F. How do these cars work when the AC is cranked up like in florida/texas/california not on the coast? And after 6,7,8 years how is the battery capacity then??

Truly the best way to save the planet is move closer to your most frequent commute. You will save time too. One of the most important factors in picking my new job was the commute time and distance. I shaved 20 miles and 40 minutes from my daily commute.

[lektrode]

Re: The Tesla Put

i'm seeing chevy volt's on true car for 33K, plus if we follow the IRS rules
....
we are looking at a tax credit of about 7,417 for the volt. Which brings the price down to 25.5K. Not too bad. But I am a cheap used car guy. My last car cost 8K.

+1 & +1

however.. must admit that the concept of a bunch of silicon up on my roof that fills the batts on a volt IS quite intriguing...
altho santafe has indicated he's not ready to bet on his (volt) for the longhaul, so i can/will wait to see how they shake out after 10years or so

and NONE of them - for any price/MPG/no-gas/tax-credit-driven incentives could or would EVER beat the 'performance' of my 91 & 93 chevy caveliers - the 91 i paid 1000bux for - in y2k - drove it for the next 11years, never got less than 24-26mpg - no matter how hard i beat it around town - shipped it over to 'america' - drove it back n forth across the continent over the course of 3 winter seasons, where it never avg'd LESS than 26mpg at 'transcontinental cruising velocity' (as in..."eye cant drive FIFTY FIVE..." ;) - shipped it back across the pacific - drove it a total of over 100000 miles and never did anything to it but replace consumable components?

(adding: then - after some idiot made a left in front of me one day, smacked'er up, his ins paid me 1300bux for the damage, was STILL quite driveable - and then sold it for 300bux to a guy who wanted to use it to practice a roll-over in a parking lot for a certain tv show... ;)

the 93 i snagged for 1400bux, drove it for 9 years - same dependability/nuthin ever broke, put only 1 set of tires and front brake pads on it, sold it for 1200 and it got 30mpg like clockwork

adding: and i'd BUY ANOTHER same vintage cav in a HEARTBEAT.

aint NO tax credit-driven/marketing-hyped 'lektrobox that will EVER beat them deals...

but - quite ironically - and mostly due to cash fer klunkahs - the daze of them kind of used-car deals is over

A new chevy spark (ice) is roughly 13.5K and gets 32/38 mpg. A chevy ev spark (82 mile range) is 27K, and qualifies for the full 7,500 tax credit making in 19.5K. $6000 buys a lot of gas for a spark (55,000 miles of gas), and electricity isn't free or convenient yet. After I get home from a work day commute I cannot take an unexpected trip in my EV out of the county.

From a purely cost basis, ICE wins. The increase in sales must be rich tree huggers thinking they are saving the planet, or maybe freeing us from the crazy oil men. I try to live green in simple ways, but a car is just too big of an investment for me to make to "save" the planet. Maybe a citi dweller could justify the cost for a pure ev, ....
....
Truly the best way to save the planet is move closer to your most frequent commute. You will save time too. .....

+1
the rest of it = PURE HYPE/BS
esp the 'green' parts of it all - as IF there were no enviro-mental aspects of junking THOUSANDS OF PERFECTLY SERVICABLE CARS - never mind the impacts of manufacturing them all - 'green' or otherwise.

[don]

Re: The Tesla Put

“Are government tax breaks and credits to corporations the same thing as government-granted subsidies?” You’re likely to find as much disagreement from economists on the left as you will from those on the right.

Non-economists ought to be pondering this question also, especially as we digest the details of the deal Nevada officials inked on Thursday with the electric car company, Tesla Motors. The company announced its decision to site a “gigafactory” to build car batteries near Reno.

“A little over half the package, or $725 million, is in a 20-year, 100 percent sales tax abatement,” reported Forbes. “Tesla also would receive a 10-year, 100 percent property tax abatement worth $332 million. There also is a provision for $120 million in transferable tax credits.” This is an exceedingly generous package (in the $1.3 billion range) no matter what you call it.

(libertarians are gonna howl over this one . . .)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk - "let the market decide"

[lektrode]

Re: The Tesla Put

....
(libertarians are gonna howl over this one . . .)...

"let the market decide"

more (or less) on whats apparently the site of the factory


and... what else is nearby...

sporting a nice lil pop since eye started watching (or at least paying attention to) this story in july... looks like it got ahead of itself (and shouldve bought the rumor and sold on the news, but hey... ;)

[GRG55]

Re: The Tesla Put

more (or less) on whats apparently the site of the factory


and... what else is nearby...

sporting a nice lil pop since eye started watching (or at least paying attention to) this story in july... looks like it got ahead of itself (and shouldve bought the rumor and sold on the news, but hey... ;)

what's nearby is Tahoe. Tesla will never get any serious talent to live in the Nevada desert...but the lifestyle in Tahoe has been attracting talented nerds for decades. ;-)

[lektrode]

Re: The Tesla Put

what's nearby is Tahoe. Tesla will never get any serious talent to live in the Nevada desert...but the lifestyle in Tahoe has been attracting talented nerds for decades. ;-)

well, yeah - BUT... there is at least one other attraction fairly close-by, just north of RNO - even if its only a once/year gig - and frequented by much of the same crowd that would likely be commuting from SJC

but what i meant by 'what else' is the site of a fairly large and close-by deposit of a certain key ingredient for the gigafactory's product - which we're told will utilize as many 'local-sourced' ingredients as possible, eh GRG?

[GRG55]

Re: The Tesla Put

well, yeah - BUT... there is at least one other attraction fairly close-by, just north of RNO - even if its only a once/year gig - and frequented by much of the same crowd that would likely be commuting from SJC

but what i meant by 'what else' is the site of a fairly large and close-by deposit of a certain key ingredient for the gigafactory's product - which we're told will utilize as many 'local-sourced' ingredients as possible, eh GRG?

I think it's a brilliant location for what Tesla is trying to build.

The question is whether Tesla can weather the intervening period until the next phase of PCO onset, which may be several more years.

[lektrode]

Re: The Tesla Put

I think it's a brilliant location for what Tesla is trying to build.

+1
and only 4hours or so away from the boss' HQ - thru/past some of the most jaw-dropping gaper-fests on the continent, to boot.

The question is whether Tesla can weather the intervening period until the next phase of PCO onset, which may be several more years.

or at least until the long-awaited and now mythical 'source of KWH thats too cheap to meter' - which seem to get more mythical by the day, eh GRG?

[lektrode]

Re: The Tesla Put

more on 'key ingredients' - and some other interesting insight...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Tesla Put

I think it's a brilliant location for what Tesla is trying to build.

The question is whether Tesla can weather the intervening period until the next phase of PCO onset, which may be several more years.

Hmmmm....I wonder what impact this latest crash in energy prices will have on consumer sentiment.

How does the price of petrol falling $1+ a gallon impact the choice of weighing the purchase of an electric Tesla over a petrol Porsche?