Its ON !!!!

[Mega]

http://news.sky.com/story/1220272/uk...storm-deadline
Mike

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Yeah, if these reports are true, then s**t just got real...

China says agrees with Russia on "appropriate" handling of Ukraine
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A220GE20140303

More details... (although not sure how credible a Pakistani news website is ".com.pk")
http://tribune.com.pk/story/678378/c...ims-agreement/

When asked about Ukraine at a regular press briefing on Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Qin Gang answered indirectly.“China has always upheld the principles of diplomacy and the fundamental norms of international relations,” he said.
“At the same time we also take into consideration the history and the current complexities of the Ukrainian issue. It could be said that China’s position is to both maintain principles while also seeking to be realistic.”
Qin also referred to his statement posted on the ministry’s website a day earlier, which said on the one hand that “China has long maintained a principle of non-interference in internal affairs (of other countries), and respects Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
But it also noted that “there are reasons that the Ukrainian situation is what it is today”.
Niu Jun, a professor of international affairs at Peking University, said China wanted to maintain its relationship with Russia yet had strong concerns about foreign intervention.
“It’s all very inconvenient,” he said. “That’s why they came out with a statement nobody can understand. (LOL)
“What this statement is really saying is, ‘what Russia did was not right and China does not want to support this military invasion’. But China also wants to support Russia, so it came up with excuses” such as Russia’s history with Crimea and Ukraine’s internal situation, he said.
“Yet at the same time they realise this excuse doesn’t hold water, so they also threw in a mention of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

[BadJuju]

Re: Its ON !!!!

That article doesn't really say anything, Adeptus. Just that China and Russia's foreign ministers agree that handling the Ukraine situation should be appropriate.

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

That article doesn't really say anything, Adeptus. Just that China and Russia's foreign ministers agree that handling the Ukraine situation should be appropriate.

There's more on other websites. Google "China agreement Russia Ukraine" .That's why I started out with "IF these reports are true"... I think we need more clarity from reputable news sites for sure; otherwise, this could just be a big misinterpretation/extrapolation of vague statements by China.... but it seems at least on C-list news sites, that the parroting of (paraphrase) 'China backs Russia on Ukraine' is gaining momentum as per google news link in this post.

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Looks like wallstreet journal is offering up its own version, which makes more sense...

Source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...704060190.html

Partial quote...

MOSCOW—Russia's foreign ministry says China agrees with the Kremlin about Moscow's military action in Ukraine. But China's foreign ministry differs with that assessment.

In describing a phone call between the foreign ministers of Russia and China, the Russian ministry said Monday that "there was a broad convergence of views between Russia and China in connection to the situation in Ukraine and around it."

The statement was broadcast by Russian media outlets as proof Russia doesn't stand alone on Ukraine.


But China's foreign ministry spokesman, Qin Gang, gave a somewhat different take on China's position during the past two days: "It is China's longstanding position not to interfere in others' internal affairs. We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," he said, according to a statement posted on the Chinese ministry's website on Sunday.

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Putin thus far does seem to be at least 2 moves ahead of the US/EU, so now I'm just waiting for the next rapid chessboard move while the West tries not to blink. Perhaps something like a false flag operation in an Eastern Ukraine state, like say a car bomb going off during a Pro-Russia protest... then Putin orders the remaining 100,000 troops waiting at the boarder to come in to the remaining Eastern states "to protect the Russian speaking population".

If this happens, the credit goes to ZH commentators... I'm not usually this cynic.

[BadJuju]

Re: Its ON !!!!

I am!

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

UN Security Council Livestream, right now: http://webtv.un.org/ (select English in pull down menu)

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Putin thus far does seem to be at least 2 moves ahead of the US/EU, so now I'm just waiting for the next rapid chessboard move while the West tries not to blink. Perhaps something like a false flag operation in an Eastern Ukraine state, like say a car bomb going off during a Pro-Russia protest... then Putin orders the remaining 100,000 troops waiting at the boarder to come in to the remaining Eastern states "to protect the Russian speaking population".

If this happens, the credit goes to ZH commentators... I'm not usually this cynic.

Even with Russia's extremely low defense spending per soldier(which can also correlate to low capability), occupying Ukraine for a period could be an extremely expensive proposition(both directly…as well as indirectly as shown by rising interest rates, falling share market, and a currency that required intervention to support it).

I just don't think Russia would WANT to occupy all of Ukraine……if they felt they had painted themselves in a corner and perceived the need to do so would be another possibility…but I would think that would be attached with a fairly low probability.

[flintlock]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Let's hope this doesn't turn into a shooting war. It will be a bloodbath like Chechnya. Politics are one thing, but the civilians will be the ones to suffer.

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Even with Russia's extremely low defense spending per soldier(which can also correlate to low capability), occupying Ukraine for a period could be an extremely expensive proposition(both directly…as well as indirectly as shown by rising interest rates, falling share market, and a currency that required intervention to support it).

I just don't think Russia would WANT to occupy all of Ukraine……if they felt they had painted themselves in a corner and perceived the need to do so would be another possibility…but I would think that would be attached with a fairly low probability.

Hmmm... I just have to wonder if the rapid increase in gas & oil prices as a result of the tensions would compensate for most of the ruble/stock market drops. Currency/stock markets aside, I think perhaps the next biggest downside that Russia risks is frozen oligarch bank accounts by the Billions in EU offshores (reference: 2010 "Thieves by Law" 90 minute documentary on the rise of the Russian Oligarchs and their migration to living in EU) . The mafioso oligarchs might get just a bit pissed off at Putin if they lost their hard "earned" loots. Perhaps this is what Cameron of UK meant by Russia risks facing "significant costs". According to the Russian Central bank, accounts held offshore by Russians are growing by $56Billion/year (2.5% of Russia's GDP). So in the grand scheme, it's not going to kill russia, but the pissed off oligarchs are surely to kill somebody(s).

[FrankL]

Re: Its ON !!!!

http://news.sky.com/story/1220272/uk...storm-deadline
Mike

here's my speculation...

Russia is there to 'guarantee a fair and proper conduct' during the upcoming vote on independence of the Crimea area, at the end of the month.

As soon as that has happened, Russia will put new bilateral agreements in place with this area for long-term leasing/renting of their Black Sea harbour, as well as bilateral protection treaties (in order to insure Ukraine is not going to try and snatch it back). Then it's time to slowly withdraw again from the area.

The other message being send by Russia is: don't mess in our own backyard, we don't like it, and you can count on us to act on it in case it is needed again.

[GRG55]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Putin thus far does seem to be at least 2 moves ahead of the US/EU, so now I'm just waiting for the next rapid chessboard move while the West tries not to blink. Perhaps something like a false flag operation in an Eastern Ukraine state, like say a car bomb going off during a Pro-Russia protest... then Putin orders the remaining 100,000 troops waiting at the boarder to come in to the remaining Eastern states "to protect the Russian speaking population".

If this happens, the credit goes to ZH commentators... I'm not usually this cynic.

LOL. The ONLY way to be "two moves ahead" in a game of chess is to break the rules...

Do not underestimate how much the Americans know (and knew) beforehand, nor how little they ultimately care. After watching the maneuverings surrounding the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East I am more convinced than ever that the USA fully understands the benefit (to itself) of a politically unstable world everywhere else but in North America.

After 70+ years of being the global policeman the USA is now being criticized for not bothering. The pundits don't seem to have realized that the times they are a changin'. The country that did the most to open the globe for trade and create the opportunity for a post WWII world to raise its collective standard of living seems to think its done its share for now. How do ya like it so far?

[Adeptus]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Thanks for weighing in, your insight around these parts is well respected :-)

LOL. The ONLY way to be "two moves ahead" in a game of chess is to break the rules...

Sorry, I meant thinking 2 moves ahead.... which is not much in chess, but you know what I mean.

Do not underestimate how much the Americans know (and knew) beforehand, nor how little they ultimately care. After watching the maneuverings surrounding the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East I am more convinced than ever that the USA fully understands the benefit (to itself) of a politically unstable world everywhere else but in North America.

Good point. It's hard to keep perspective when the political theater is nearly Oscar worthy. That lady representing the USA at the Security Council was sure convincing. Gotta watch the actions though, not the words.

After 70+ years of being the global policeman the USA is now being criticized for not bothering. The pundits don't seem to have realized that the times they are a changin'. The country that did the most to open the globe for trade and create the opportunity for a post WWII world to raise its collective standard of living seems to think its done its share for now. How do ya like it so far?

I just think Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya is still too fresh in people's minds + Obama is not like the "war mongering" Mccaine.

[GRG55]

Re: Its ON !!!!

Thanks for weighing in, your insight around these parts is well respected :-)

Sorry, I meant thinking 2 moves ahead.... which is not much in chess, but you know what I mean.

Good point. It's hard to keep perspective when the political theater is nearly Oscar worthy. That lady representing the USA at the Security Council was sure convincing. Gotta watch the actions though, not the words.



I just think Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya is still too fresh in people's minds + Obama is not like the "war mongering" Mccaine.

Well, as I have posted a few times over the years, if one doesn't like a world with the USA as hegemon, just wait until you see what it's like without.