Time to buy more Gold?

[Mega]

Base looks in.............your thoughts?
Mike

[Fox]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

Too many questions out there to buy anything IMHO

Emerging Markets?
China slowdown?
WTF going with US Jobs report?

Gold did well during the crisis time. However that still didn't save it from a 30% drop between Bear Sterns collapse and Lehman Brothers Bail-out.

I'd say hold off until the song of "X is contained we have no reason to intervene" turns in to "To prevent systemic collapse from X we will..."

[charliebrown]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

Fox, if your confused by household vs. establisment number here is some illumination from John Hussman's weekly new letter. 2014-02-10 http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140210.htm

One of the seemingly confusing aspects of Friday’s employment report was the increase of 638,000 jobs in the household survey, which contrasted with the rather disappointing 113,000 jobs in the more widely followed payroll survey. What many of the talking heads called a troubling difference can be explained by a footnote in the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates.” The civilian labor force itself was revised higher by 523,000 individuals.
Here’s how these revisions work (from Business Statistics of the United States, Strawser, 2012): “Official [current population survey] data are characterized by periodic discontinuities, which occur when benchmarks for Census measures of the total population are introduced. These updates take place in a single month – usually January – and the official data for previous months are typically not modified to provide a smooth transition… Such discontinuities occur throughout the history of the series.”
One of the more notable examples of this is was in January 2000, when the household employment figure jumped by 2,036,000 jobs, while the civilian labor force jumped by 2,090,000. By comparison, the total non-farm payroll figure (establishment survey) increased only by 233,000. The nearly nine-fold difference between the household and establishment figures wasn’t some gross aberration or cause for alarm in the field of economic analysis. It simply reflected standard practice in adjusting the household data for changes in estimated population.
Similarly, in January 2003, the household employment figure surged by 991,000 jobs, while the civilian labor force figure jumped by 871,000. In contrast, the total non-farm payroll figure increased by only 89,000 jobs. This simply reflected standard practice. There are certainly times when true inconsistencies in payroll figures can be informative, but where January benchmark revisions are concerned, there’s really nothing out of the ordinary here.

If you believe the BLS raw numbers, I don't believe the U3...U6 numbers. I look at the raw number of people with jobs, average wages etc.
There are 1.41 million more jobs in Jan 14 compared to Jan 13. Jobs/Population is about steady as about 2 million more people are in the U.S.
I also see the Payroll tax increasing, another sign of increasing employment.

Despite these numbers I don't think everything is all rosy. I feel another recesion will occur before the economy heals from the 08 recession.

I would buy gold here if you allocation is under your target. I would dollar cost average into paper gold. Then when the time is right convert to another more secure form. Maybe this time, gold will be viewed more seriously as a store of weatlh than king dollar. There are an awful more dollars out there than in '08.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

I think there's definitely some fudging going on in the employment numbers, as appears from this graph thta EJ posted last month:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...761#post273761

[Fox]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

Actually I'm not confused by the BLS report at all. I read Hussman's take but already dismissed the household part to be irrelevant to the headline number.

When I say "WTF is going on with the Jobs report" I'm actually being rhetorical and just highlighting the fact that something is "seriously wrong in Dodge"

My theory so far, because I haven't heard anything concrete yet, is that the BLS is now reporting the "Facts". Remember in November they got caught fudging the numbers. Well since then the December report was a disaster and January's report was horrible. The numbers are so bad compared to expectations everyone is dismissing them. Its as if the numbers are so ridiculous economist have wrapped an SEP field (Somebody else's problem) around them and don't see it.

However when the February report comes out next month and it is also a similar disaster, everyone is suddenly going to say "Uh oh" and reality and gravity will assert itself; the real US economy is dead. There will be panic in the streets as investors realize the economy crashed in December and they are 3 months behind the eight ball. It will be one hell of a sight to see.

Until the next jobs report its Duck and Cover time. I wouldn't buy anything till then.

[bpwoods]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

Many thanks for a really good laugh (though I suppose we should be crying). The link was - 'elevating'! Gold (coin) is probably safe. Though I suspect that the Boyze will attempt a least one more significant 'slapdown' - but their time is running short for this sort of chicanery.

[photon555]

Re: Time to buy more Gold?

Who are you going to believe, the government's report, or your lying eyes!