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  • Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?



    Wrong Bonanza - Ben, Adam, Little Joe and Hoss; in happier times with their banker after signing on for a ARM to 'save' the Ponderosa






    It didn't . . . .



    Wall Street’s New Housing Bonanza

    By MICHAEL CORKERY

    Wall Street’s latest trillion-dollar idea involves slicing and dicing debt tied to single-family homes and selling the bonds to investors around the world.

    That might sound a lot like the activities that at one point set off a global financial crisis. But there is a twist this time. Investment bankers and lawyers are now lining up to finance investors, from big private equity firms to plumbers and dentists moonlighting as landlords, who are buying up foreclosed houses and renting them out.

    The latest company to test this emerging frontier in securitization is American Homes 4 Rent. The company talked to prospective investors at a conference in Las Vegas last week about selling securities tied to $500 million of debt, according to people briefed on the matter.

    American Homes 4 Rent, which went public in August, has tapped JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo as its bankers for a debt deal that is expected to be sold by the end of the first quarter, these people said.

    While this securitization market is still in its infancy, a recent Wall Street estimate put potential financing opportunities for the single-family rental industry as high as $1.5 trillion. Already some members of Congress and economists are worried about another credit bubble.

    “The investment and lending opportunities are immense and perhaps just beginning,” Jade Rahmani, a real estate analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote in a recent report.

    In just the last two years, large investors have bought as many as 200,000 single-family houses and are now renting them out, according to the K.B.W. report.

    The private equity giant Blackstone Group sold the first single-family rental securitization of its kind last fall, a $479 million bond, attracting six times as many investors as the private equity firm could accept, a person involved in the deal said.

    Investors like mutual funds and insurance companies bought slices of the bond, which are backed by the rental homes owned by Blackstone’s company, Invitation Homes.

    The rental business is still dominated by landlords who own and manage only a handful of properties. Wall Street has found a way to finance them, too. Cerberus Capital Management and Blackstone have started businesses that lend to small-time and medium-size investors.

    And there are discussions about bundling many of these small loans and securitizing them also.

    “That’s the part of the business that will take off,” said Stephen D. Blevit, a lawyer at Sidley Austin. “Providing cheap financing to mom-and-pop investors who save their pennies, buy a few properties and do all the maintenance themselves.”

    What the new securitization boom will mean for homeowners and renters is less clear.

    Wall Street may be clamoring to lend to investors in single-family homes, but it is still difficult for millions of Americans to qualify for a mortgage. The easy financing could give investors the upper hand in bidding for homes on the market.

    Representative Mark Takano, Democrat of California, whose district includes the Inland Empire just east of Los Angeles, which was hit by a tidal wave of foreclosures, has asked the House Financial Services Committee to hold hearings on the impact that single-family rental bonds could have on the housing market.

    “Proper oversight of new financial innovation is key to ensuring we don’t go down the same road of the unchecked mortgage-backed security and create an unsustainable bubble that will wreak havoc when it bursts,” Mr. Takano said in a letter to the committee last week.

    Securitization, however, could provide a pick-me-up to Wall Street’s mortgage machine, a once-mighty profit engine that has never fully recovered from the financial crisis. Bankers estimate that single family-rental bond deals could total as much as $7 billion this year and eventually grow to about $20 billion a year.

    For landlords like American Homes 4 Rent, securitizing debt would provide them with more leverage to buy more homes. It would also increase their profits by lowering their borrowing costs.

    With securitization, landlords could in theory put as little as 25 percent of equity into their properties, while borrowing the rest. Credit lines from banks typically require 40 percent equity.

    Last month, economists at the Federal Reserve warned that if large landlords took on too much debt, they might feel pressure to hold fire sales of their properties, flooding the housing market with supply.

    “Financial stability concerns may become more significant should debt financing become more prevalent or if the share of homes owned by investors in certain markets rises significantly further,” the Fed economists wrote.

    They added that it was important to monitor the emergence of single-family rental securitization for signs that it could destabilize “financial markets.”

    For now, though, companies like American Homes 4 Rent are earning their early investors big profits. Many tenants used to own the houses they are now renting from the company, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

    A spokesman for the company, which owns 21,000 homes, did not return calls requesting comment.

    The company, whose executives are based in Agoura Hills, Calif., started out with little leverage when it began buying homes as a private venture founded by B. Wayne Hughes with money from the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation in the summer of 2012, said the corporation’s executive director, Michael J. Burns.

    The Alaska fund draws money from royalties paid by big oil companies and doles out annual dividend checks to every state resident. Last year, those checks totaled $900 each.

    Mr. Burns said his investment staff had heard Mr. Hughes was buying foreclosed and other inexpensive houses as part of a private venture. Mr. Hughes, who founded the company Public Storage and is listed on the Forbes 400 richest Americans, agreed to meet the Alaska investment team at his office in Malibu, Calif.

    “Wayne said he thought this was the biggest real estate opportunity of his lifetime,” Mr. Burns recalled.

    With an initial $250 million investment from Alaska in the summer of 2012, Mr. Hughes’s fund went on a buying spree in Arizona, California and Nevada. American Homes 4 Rent now rents out houses in 22 states.

    The company is a real estate investment trust, a structure that has tax advantages over other companies but tends to borrow heavily. Mr. Burns says leverage is “a fact of life” for a company like this. Alaska’s equity investment of $625 million in the company has gained about 17 percent in value.

    “We have been very pleased with how this turned out,” he said.

    Still, Mr. Burns said that it had been “heart wrenching” at times acquiring homes that families have had to turn over to the bank.

    “Some other family is going to move in and make it their home,” he said.

  • #2
    Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

    Didn't we have a report in December talking about the big players that are bailing out of this stupidity?

    Is American Homes 4 Rent pumping their book so they can find a sucker and get out as well?

    I find it amazing that securities backed by homeowners are now considered garbage but securities backed by renters sounds like such a great idea. Oh well, fools and their money.

    I wonder how many tenants out there would dump cement in the toilet simply because their landlord is a big investor? I guess Blackstone will find out soon enough.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

      Originally posted by don View Post


      wrong bonanza - ben, adam, little joe and hoss; in happier times with their banker after signing on for a arm to 'save' the ponderosa





      So what you're saying is Little Joe going from the Ponderosa to a little house on the prairie was a foreshadowing of events to come across America...


      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

        So what you're saying is Little Joe going from the Ponderosa to a little house on the prairie was a foreshadowing of events to come across America...


        I knew somebody on the 'tulip would get it - not surprisingly it's GRG55. Little Joe, a true libertarian, couldn't be happier with (much) smaller digs . . . .

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

          is the jig up already?

          Rents collected on the collateral for the first U.S. rental-home securities declined by 7.6 percent from October to January, according to Morningstar Inc.

          Payments declined as expiring leases and early tenant departures left residences backing the bonds of Blackstone (BX) Group LP’s Invitation Homes vacant, Becky Cao and Brian Alan, analysts at Morningstar’s credit-ratings unit, said in a report. While 8.3 percent of the properties were vacant or occupied by delinquent renters in January, renewals on 78.5 percent of leases that expired the prior month exceeded the analysts’ expected rate of 66.7 percent.

          The deal’s performance is being watched as Wall Street bankers and institutional property investors seek to follow Blackstone’s $479.1 million transaction in November with additional offerings. Initial lease expirations for the 3,207 homes are scheduled to peak from January through March, Morningstar said. To woo investors and rating firms in the new market, the transaction started with all of the units leased, unlike bonds backed by apartment-building loans.

          “As the number of lease expirations decline throughout 2014, and the vacant properties are filled, we expect the vacancy rate to stabilize and to potentially decline,” the analysts wrote in the report sent by e-mail today.

          200,000 Properties

          One dealer was offering to sell top-rated notes from the Blackstone transaction for about face value today, according to Empirasign Strategies LLC, which tracks securitization-market trading. Some riskier slices were being offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for less than par last month, people with knowledge of trading said then.

          Christine Anderson, a spokeswoman for New York-based Blackstone, declined to comment.

          Institutional investors, led by companies such as Blackstone’s Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), have bought as many as 200,000 U.S. properties in the last two years, taking advantage of real estate prices that fell by as much as one-third from the 2006 peak, and rising demand for rentals among Americans who lost their houses in the foreclosure crisis.

          Morningstar said it expects a stabilized vacancy rate of 8 percent for homes underlying the first deal after it granted AAA grades to $278.7 million of the notes. Wall Street ultimately may sell more than $20 billion a year of rental-home bonds as investors become comfortable with those tied to smaller landlords, according to Ryan Stark, a director at Deutsche Bank AG, which structured and helped underwrite the transaction.

          Kroll Bond Rating Agency said in a report at the time the Blackstone deal closed that its forecasted rental revenues after estimated property expenses covered 1.68 times the obligations to bondholders. Kroll, which used a 10 percent vacancy rate in the calculations, also granted top grades to the biggest slice of the deal, according to the Nov. 19 report.

          To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net
          To contact the editor responsible for this story: Shannon D. Harrington at sharrington6@bloomberg.net

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

            Originally posted by don View Post
            is the jig up already?

            Rents collected on the collateral for the first U.S. rental-home securities declined by 7.6 percent from October to January, according to Morningstar Inc.

            Payments declined as expiring leases and early tenant departures left residences backing the bonds of Blackstone (BX) Group LP’s Invitation Homes vacant, Becky Cao and Brian Alan, analysts at Morningstar’s credit-ratings unit, said in a report. While 8.3 percent of the properties were vacant or occupied by delinquent renters in January, renewals on 78.5 percent of leases that expired the prior month exceeded the analysts’ expected rate of 66.7 percent.

            The deal’s performance is being watched as Wall Street bankers and institutional property investors seek to follow Blackstone’s $479.1 million transaction in November with additional offerings. Initial lease expirations for the 3,207 homes are scheduled to peak from January through March, Morningstar said. To woo investors and rating firms in the new market, the transaction started with all of the units leased, unlike bonds backed by apartment-building loans.

            “As the number of lease expirations decline throughout 2014, and the vacant properties are filled, we expect the vacancy rate to stabilize and to potentially decline,” the analysts wrote in the report sent by e-mail today.

            200,000 Properties

            One dealer was offering to sell top-rated notes from the Blackstone transaction for about face value today, according to Empirasign Strategies LLC, which tracks securitization-market trading. Some riskier slices were being offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for less than par last month, people with knowledge of trading said then.

            Christine Anderson, a spokeswoman for New York-based Blackstone, declined to comment.

            Institutional investors, led by companies such as Blackstone’s Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), have bought as many as 200,000 U.S. properties in the last two years, taking advantage of real estate prices that fell by as much as one-third from the 2006 peak, and rising demand for rentals among Americans who lost their houses in the foreclosure crisis.

            Morningstar said it expects a stabilized vacancy rate of 8 percent for homes underlying the first deal after it granted AAA grades to $278.7 million of the notes. Wall Street ultimately may sell more than $20 billion a year of rental-home bonds as investors become comfortable with those tied to smaller landlords, according to Ryan Stark, a director at Deutsche Bank AG, which structured and helped underwrite the transaction.

            Kroll Bond Rating Agency said in a report at the time the Blackstone deal closed that its forecasted rental revenues after estimated property expenses covered 1.68 times the obligations to bondholders. Kroll, which used a 10 percent vacancy rate in the calculations, also granted top grades to the biggest slice of the deal, according to the Nov. 19 report.

            To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net
            To contact the editor responsible for this story: Shannon D. Harrington at sharrington6@bloomberg.net
            This is a very unstable market, particularly with stalled or dropping incomes. When people cannot pay rents, they move in with friends or family, and double up. Rental backed securities is not exactly a safe security...you don't even have the ability to regain the property collateralized, because you share it with other people with no recourse.

            I wouldn't touch it for less that 18% return, since a sub-prime private mortgage gets 14%, along with the fact that you get to refuse the security on a case by case basis, and I doubt the return is anywhere close to that.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

              "Morningstar said it expects a stabilized vacancy rate of 8 percent for homes underlying the first deal after it granted AAA grades to $278.7 million of the notes."

              It's 2007 all over again; junk AAAs

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

                Originally posted by Forrest View Post
                This is a very unstable market, particularly with stalled or dropping incomes. When people cannot pay rents, they move in with friends or family, and double up. Rental backed securities is not exactly a safe security
                Yes, and don't forget that they very often stiff the landlord of the last months rent; if not more depending on the eviction laws of the area. This is particularly prevalent in the underclass; people with nothing to lose. Skipping out on rent is a common way to subsidize their income.

                Not to mention home maintenance is higher with tenants than with home owners (unless you slumlord, which is also common but makes you prone to lawsuits on an RBS scale). So ya, I agree, 18% is probably enough to compensate for the risks. However with maintenance, property management fees, Trust management fees, vacancy, taxes, and advertising, these things will never earn 18%.

                I would be surprised if the RBS model is even profitable.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Shakeout & Concentration in Motion


                  Investors Who Bought Foreclosed Homes in Bulk Look to Sell






                  A year ago, buying foreclosed homes to rent out was the sure-thing trade for investment firms backed by money from private equitycompanies, hedge funds and pension systems. But with the supply of cheap foreclosed homes dwindling, some early investors are looking to cash out a bit by flipping homes to competitors.

                  The Waypoint Real Estate Group, one of the first companies to raise money from private investors to buy foreclosed homes, is quietly shopping as many as 2,000 houses in California that it acquired in the last few years in several private investment funds, said three people who had been briefed on the matter but were not authorized to discuss it. The homes, which are largely rented, are being shown to other companies backed by investor money that have also scooped up distressed houses in states including Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois and Nevada.

                  Waypoint is considering selling about half of its 4,000 homes. Some of the biggest institutional investors in the market for foreclosed homes — companies like the Blackstone Group, American Homes 4 Rent and American Residential Properties — have slowed their pace of acquisitions in response to an increase in home prices and a dearth of foreclosed homes that do not require significant renovation.

                  Waypoint is following other early investors like the Och-Ziff Capital Management Group and Oaktree Capital Management, which have sold homes bought near the start of the financial crisis. But unlike Och-Ziff and Oaktree, Waypoint is not leaving the single-family home market. It is still managing more than 7,000 homes for a publicly traded real estate investment trust, or REIT, it formed last year with the Starwood Capital Group called Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust.

                  Jason Chudoba, a spokesman for the trust and Waypoint’s management company, said the firm did not comment on market speculation.

                  The single-family home market, after a wave of acquisitions by companies backed by Wall Street money, is changing as institutional buyers now focus more on expanding their operations to manage tens of thousands of homes across the United States. Industry participants say that the rapid buying of foreclosed homes has ended and that they expect other early institutional buyers to sell homes to lock in profits. They say they also expect the business to consolidate into the hands of a few large companies.

                  “Consolidation is a natural thing,” said Aaron Edelheit, a former hedge fund manager and chief executive of a smaller company in Atlanta, the American Home, which manages more than 2,500 rental homes in several Southeastern cities.

                  Over all, institutional buyers have bought over 386,000 single-family homes across the country since 2011, according to RealtyTrac, a property research company.

                  That institutional buying has had a significant effect, especially in cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta and parts of Southern California, where housing prices plunged the most during the financial crisis. The institutional investment in those places helped fuel double-digit recoveries in home prices in the last year and brought some stability to local housing markets, though critics contend that institutional buyers have crowded out first-time buyers.

                  But the rapid pace of acquisitions could not continue. Even Blackstone, the largest acquirer of homes, which spent $8.6 billion for 45,000 units in 14 cities, has reduced its once-feverish buying. It now spends about $30 million a week to buy homes, said a person briefed on its plans, compared with $140 million a week last summer. The $30 million that Blackstone spends buys about 116 homes.

                  Now, institutional buyers like Blackstone are more focused on fixing the properties they already own, renting them out and using the properties as collateral to back bonds that can be sold to investors.

                  Blackstone, American Homes 4 Rent and Colony American Homes have brought five rent-backed securitization deals worth $3 billion to market. The bonds in those deals are backed by loans issued on 20,741 rental homes owned and operated by the three companies, according to Morningstar’s credit rating divisions, which has reviewed and rated the deals.

                  The companies are finding that the most challenging part of the rental business is expanding their property management operations — often from scratch — to deal with leaky toilets, damaged roofs and tenants who do not pay rent on time. Blackstone’s property management business, Invitation Homes, for instance, has grown to more than 1,500 employees from just 14 two years ago. The rapid growth has not always been easy.

                  “Most of these companies have 18-month track records as property managers, so they are still working out the operational details,” said Michael Gutierrez, managing director of operational risk assessments at Morningstar Credit Ratings. “There have been growing pains.”

                  Mr. Gutierrez is responsible for reviewing the ability of a company that is issuing securities backed by single-family homes to manage the properties it has acquired. He says his team assesses oversight of the contractors the company hires to renovate and repair homes, the speed with which it responds to tenant complaints and the training employees receive about dealing with renters and their adherence to fair debt-collection practices.

                  Morningstar’s presale rating reports on the bonds offered by Blackstone, Colony American and American Homes 4 Rent have deemed the work of the companies’ property managers acceptable. But the reports note that all the companies are young with limited operating records.

                  As for the Waypoint homes being offered to rival companies, most of them are in Northern California or the so-called Inland Empire east of Los Angeles. The homes are held in 10 investment funds that Waypoint began raising money for in 2009 from investors as varied as Columbia University and the private equity firm GI Partners. The three people briefed on the matter said Waypoint appeared to be in no rush to sell the homes and might opt to sell them piecemeal.

                  When Waypoint’s management group joined with StarwoodProperty to oversee the operation of the new REIT, there was an understanding that the investment company would look to gradually unwind its private real estate funds, said one the people briefed on the matter. In fact, in March, one of those original Waypoint investment funds sold a portfolio of 707 homes for $144 million to the Starwood Waypoint REIT.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Shakeout & Concentration in Motion

                    Originally posted by don View Post

                    Investors Who Bought Foreclosed Homes in Bulk Look to Sell



                    I would imagine that the business (and the required internal skills) to find and acquire housing assets at cheap valuations is quite different from maintaining and managing those assets to generate consistent revenue over time. The PE crowd (at least those PE managers that actually know what they are doing) has always tried to marry capital to undervalued, underperforming assets in an effort to generate acceptable cash-on-cash returns for investors in their funds. Single family housing's time came and now that play is maturing...and the hunt for "the next big thing" is probably underway.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: My Prediction

                      It's all interrelated.

                      My guess is non-financial corporate debt is the next bomb. It has increased by almost a trillion in the last year. Investors are happy for the higher yields on the risky ones, so they're pouring into the companies with the worst balance sheets first.


                      I'd say somewhere between now and the end of 2016 (probably closer to the end of 2016, but who knows?) you'll see this snap back hard, and lots and lots of the debt go bunk. Things that looked to be AAA will turn out to be worth nothing, yet again. Probably some big firm will go bust overnight due to accounting/control games that hide the depth of their liabilities until it comes out, and something like that will probably trigger it. Stock markets will correct sharply, and folks will start talking about a corporate bond bubble.

                      After that the layoffs and pay reductions should show up in typical fashion, and that's where we see the wave of housing issues (smaller than last time, but bigger than most people will think) and tech stocks slackening (user growth stalls out as budgets are stretched and eviction/layoff notices go out).


                      But that's the guess anyways. Who knows if that's how it will go. All I know is it looks to me like the dominoes are aligning. Once one falls, the sky high asset prices we have now will come crashing down to the reality of labor rates. Blood from a stone.



                      I mean, think about it. Median home purchase prices have tripled in NYC over the last decade. The price per square foot is up ~15% over last year alone in mid-lower Manhattan neighborhoods.


                      So median income has dropped by $4,000 since 2007 to ~%55k per year, and sales are flat, but your median (not average) one bed apartment is up near a million dollars now. 2 beds are over 2 million.


                      So if there's not more or quicker sales, and income of resident households is down ~4%, then why are rent and sales prices jumping on average ~8.5%?


                      It just seems to me to be a bubble all over again. Housing prices are right back to December 2004 levels on average. - ~83 on the Case-Schiller 20 index. Only in December of 2004, gasoline was under $2 per gallon, and so was heating oil, etc. And 4% more Americans were in the workforce making money. And savings hadn't been decimated by a giant recession.


                      The housing/rent prices today are completely and totally unsustainable. Especially in microcosms like San Francisco, Vancouver, NYC, etc. You simply cannot raise median prices by credit card interest rates every year while median income is falling and have people handle it. Even the people who are flush now have to realize things are frothy and they won't be able to afford this stuff when bubbles start going pop...


                      The very next time oil doubles over night like it did in August 2005 or some other price shock happens, or the next recession in the business cycle hits, everyone's going to be so thinly stretched by housing budgets that eat up 50%+ of their income that they'll immediately be part of a huge wave of evictions all over again.


                      It's just so stupid. We're so close to the last peak. It wasn't that long ago. Everybody knows this is the "jobless recovery." But prices at the median are going haywire. That's not supply and demand - not real supply and demand by John and Jane homeowner. It's speculation somewhere. Has to be.


                      Even prices against average incomes (which go up a lot due to factoring in wealthy folk) are high historically now. And you can look at real prices inflation adjusted over time too across several cities. The Economist just put out a pretty cool tool to look at this stuff a couple months ago.


                      But I don't think "perpetual high demand" is really the issue here. If anything the demand is speculative and temporary based on the upswing and expectations of rising housing prices, or at least that's my contention in writing this. This isn't just people who want to live in these places, it's people trying to make money off it and convert the stuff into cash flow - a temporary hedge fund bidding war for maximum rent. The problem is the labor market's not great, even if things are (and they definitely are) frothy in some key real estate markets at the moment, a little market shakeup and these people forking over sky-high rent will probably not immediately find comparable jobs paying the big bucks in the same area. And if it is speculative/investment driven instead of homeowner-demand-driven, then once the first set of investors heads for the exit, you can always get a stampede.


                      Like I said above, I'm not expecting a housing crash as big as the last one, but it could still be painful, especially in the places that have shot up so quickly this past year, and doubly so if the trend continues upwards for 2 more years.


                      I just think that Johnny and Janey Median Worker can't afford the median rent or home purchase price any more and still haven't really recovered from the last blowout. I think that means it will take less this time around to blow over the house of cards that is a 2014 cobbled together monthly home budget at a time with a weak labor market by recent historical standards and an expensive housing/energy market by recent historical standards (oil's up over $100 per barrel again). And once that disposable income goes bye-bye, a lot of the tech toys are the first things people put off purchasing, and most of that tech stuff in the 2010s has been sitting on an insane market cap based on rainbow and fairytale futures rather than cold hard revenue anyways. At least that was the theory I was putting forth here.


                      Imagine a 2016 where the NASDAQ is at 2000 dotcom-bubble-peak-high-levels nominally and the Case Schiller 20 is at 2006 housing-bubble-peak-high-levels nominally, but the labor participation rate is in the shitter and median income's down. How do you all think this will really end when some random panic du jour hits, as it does every 6-10 years or so?


                      Irrational Exuberance is back again.
                      Last edited by dcarrigg; June 30, 2014, 02:14 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: My Prediction

                        I think you're being very optimistic to think things can continue on the way they are to 2016. A 7 year bull run in today's house or cards economy? I doubt it very much.

                        The only serious question I have of any near or long term future crash is how do they play out in a ZIRP environment? The fed used up all it's ammo and even conjured up some new bullets. The end result was to only pull us up to our current Malaise.

                        In 2000 the 10 year treasury was 6%, 2008 it was 4%, now we're just above 2%. I think the next crash will be worse because the Fed will have no room to bail-out the system and all the worms are going to be made bare.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: My Prediction

                          Originally posted by Fox View Post
                          I think you're being very optimistic to think things can continue on the way they are to 2016. A 7 year bull run in today's house or cards economy? I doubt it very much.

                          The only serious question I have of any near or long term future crash is how do they play out in a ZIRP environment? The fed used up all it's ammo and even conjured up some new bullets. The end result was to only pull us up to our current Malaise.

                          In 2000 the 10 year treasury was 6%, 2008 it was 4%, now we're just above 2%. I think the next crash will be worse because the Fed will have no room to bail-out the system and all the worms are going to be made bare.
                          I don't think it's optimism. I just think they may have more tricks up their sleeve than I know. Don't forget, ZIRP is both cause and solution. Tens of millions of middle Americans lose their pensions on planet ZIRP. Nobody keeps a savings account on planet ZIRP. The middle class loses income and spends its cushion instead of leaving it in the bank to get 0.002% interest or whatever they're offering these days.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Are RBS the New MBS Bonanza?

                            American Homes-4-Rent is a high volume Craig's List spammer. They are relentless and at times listings for entire cities/small regions can be rendered useless because of the volume of phony advertisements.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: My Prediction

                              Tens of millions of middle Americans lose their pensions on planet ZIRP. Nobody keeps a savings account on planet ZIRP. The middle class loses income and spends its cushion instead of leaving it in the bank to get 0.002% interest or whatever they're offering these days.
                              Aka, the Great Transfer of Wealth . . .

                              Comment

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