was that just a geopolitical pullback?

[blazespinnaker]

Iran, Korea, India, Israel... I guess the markets can only take so much.

Hmmm .. maybe I should buy that GLD after all....

[jk]

Re: was that just a geopolitical pullback?

"just"?

we are witnessing the end of the american imperium. the "american century," which started in the 1940's lasted about 60 years. the cold war was a stabilizing, organizing influence in international affairs and thereby also in international economic relations. the post-cold-war afterglow has worn off, and we are left with a system that is increasingly anarchic. the greatest military power is the greatest debtor, and its military isn't scaled right for the conflicts it faces. technology has empowered individuals and small group entities far more than it helps the great powers exert control. on 9/11/01 a group of a few thousand individuals made clear it was declaring war on the the greatest military power on earth. and 5 years later we're still at war. does this compute? we await the fall of the dollar, but it may well resemble the fall of saddam's statue. what came next?

[blazespinnaker]

Re: was that just a geopolitical pullback?

"just"?

we are witnessing the end of the american imperium. the "american century," which started in the 1940's lasted about 60 years. the cold war was a stabilizing, organizing influence in international affairs and thereby also in international economic relations. the post-cold-war afterglow has worn off, and we are left with a system that is increasingly anarchic. the greatest military power is the greatest debtor, and its military isn't scaled right for the conflicts it faces. technology has empowered individuals and small group entities far more than it helps the great powers exert control. on 9/11/01 a group of a few thousand individuals made clear it was declaring war on the the greatest military power on earth. and 5 years later we're still at war. does this compute? we await the fall of the dollar, but it may well resemble the fall of saddam's statue. what came next?

Hmmm... I was talking about the drop in the markets

To be honest, I am somewhat bullish here. Israel is a bit unnerving, but India/North Korea/Iran are examples of all the great powers pretty much deciding that these chaotic little regimes and terrorists have to be dealt with.

That's a good sign.

Iraq was a mistake, I think, not because it was all bungled (which it was, but such is the nature of the fog of war) but because it push the great powers apart ... which is a very nasty very scary place for the world to be.

However, Iran & North Korea seem to be pushing them together. Pakistan has no interest in what is happening in India.

Frankly, I am not super concerned here... We'll see what tomorrow brings. The vix isn't reading any massive fear gauge, so there could be a quick bounce.

[jk]

Re: was that just a geopolitical pullback?

Hmmm... I was talking about the drop in the markets

To be honest, I am somewhat bullish here. Israel is a bit unnerving, but India/North Korea/Iran are examples of all the great powers pretty much deciding that these chaotic little regimes and terrorists have to be dealt with.

That's a good sign.

Iraq was a mistake, I think, not because it was all bungled (which it was, but such is the nature of the fog of war) but because it push the great powers apart ... which is a very nasty very scary place for the world to be.

However, Iran & North Korea seem to be pushing them together. Pakistan has no interest in what is happening in India.

Frankly, I am not super concerned here... We'll see what tomorrow brings. The vix isn't reading any massive fear gauge, so there could be a quick bounce.

i know you were talking about the market drop, blaze. i think this particular secular bear market is rooted in or runs parallel to a bear market in international stability. i am also skeptical of china's and russia's "help" with iran, etc - we'll see about that. anyway, i think pointing to geopolitical underpinnings of the market moves as you did is more profound [deeper but also broader and longer lasting] than you give yourself credit for.