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Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question
My analysis is more based on intent than on effect (the latter cannot be properly analysed until many years in the future, however I strongly suspect that the US considers that Russia as an enemy to the global UST$ system already):
- Previous political leaders of Germany have been getting very close with Russia/Gazprom (prime example being SPD's Gerhard Schröder). France has a long history of close ties to Russia. Long term, I think that the US considers the EU getting too close with Russia as a major risk for their world influence.
- Russia's military reaction to the loss of Kiev to unfriendly powers has been well prepared, and I'm sure it's been expected too by the US; who would have honestly thought that Russia would give up their Black Sea Sevastopol naval base just like that? More likely, the portrayed surprise is feigned, in order to claim innocence and to damage Russia in terms of public relations. Note for example how the new powers in Ukraine already accepted the loss of Crimea as a given.
- Trying to wrestle Ukraine out of Russia's paws has been a project going on for many years. This achieves a couple of things: it pushes back Russia's sphere of influence, dives Russia's attention towards Ukraine rather than elsewhere.
As the previous point states, I'm sure that the repercussions have been well thought out. Now the part which I think is curcial, is that the European Commission leaders have been made believe that Ukraine's citizen would like to prefer to join the EU, and that this is a feasible project. Note how the protests against Yanukovich quickly intensified after his agreement with joining Russia's free trade zone; note how Tymochenko (an oligarch herself) during the fragile transition of power, quickly spoke out that Ukraine would now join the European Union.
As soon as the coup had succeeded, European leaders were already celebrating victory on Kiev's Maidan square (a notable example is van Rompuy's victory speech).
This 'joining the EU' lining to a protest movement which is fed up with corruption by oligarchs of Ukraine's society is a nice twist which puts Russian's interests in Ukraine diametrically opposed to European interests, as long as the Europeans really believe that Ukraine can join the EU (and thus they can expand their base of power).
- as a last point, I'd like to repeat what's been stated before on this forum by others, which is that the countries between Russia and Germany have historically been the victim of their geographical placement.
Originally posted by gwynedd1
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- Previous political leaders of Germany have been getting very close with Russia/Gazprom (prime example being SPD's Gerhard Schröder). France has a long history of close ties to Russia. Long term, I think that the US considers the EU getting too close with Russia as a major risk for their world influence.
- Russia's military reaction to the loss of Kiev to unfriendly powers has been well prepared, and I'm sure it's been expected too by the US; who would have honestly thought that Russia would give up their Black Sea Sevastopol naval base just like that? More likely, the portrayed surprise is feigned, in order to claim innocence and to damage Russia in terms of public relations. Note for example how the new powers in Ukraine already accepted the loss of Crimea as a given.
- Trying to wrestle Ukraine out of Russia's paws has been a project going on for many years. This achieves a couple of things: it pushes back Russia's sphere of influence, dives Russia's attention towards Ukraine rather than elsewhere.
As the previous point states, I'm sure that the repercussions have been well thought out. Now the part which I think is curcial, is that the European Commission leaders have been made believe that Ukraine's citizen would like to prefer to join the EU, and that this is a feasible project. Note how the protests against Yanukovich quickly intensified after his agreement with joining Russia's free trade zone; note how Tymochenko (an oligarch herself) during the fragile transition of power, quickly spoke out that Ukraine would now join the European Union.
As soon as the coup had succeeded, European leaders were already celebrating victory on Kiev's Maidan square (a notable example is van Rompuy's victory speech).
This 'joining the EU' lining to a protest movement which is fed up with corruption by oligarchs of Ukraine's society is a nice twist which puts Russian's interests in Ukraine diametrically opposed to European interests, as long as the Europeans really believe that Ukraine can join the EU (and thus they can expand their base of power).
- as a last point, I'd like to repeat what's been stated before on this forum by others, which is that the countries between Russia and Germany have historically been the victim of their geographical placement.
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