PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

[Woodsman]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

If Afghanistan 1979-1989 was Russia's "Vietnam", is Ukraine 2014 Russia's "Iraq"?

Too tenuous an analogy, GRG. Ukraine and Russia have ties going back to the founding of the Kievan Rus in 879. Ukraine was part of Russia (via the USSR) for 70 years. No such connections to Vietnam or Iraq.

You want an analogy for a Russian invasion of the Crimea and Central Ukraine, maybe try Grenada. Better yet, Panama.

[GRG55]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Too tenuous an analogy, GRG. Ukraine and Russia have ties going back to the founding of the Kievan Rus in 879. Ukraine was part of Russia (via the USSR) for 70 years. No such connections to Vietnam or Iraq.

You want an analogy for a Russian invasion of the Crimea and Central Ukraine, maybe try Grenada. Better yet, Panama.

Fair point.

But my analog was less connected to the prior historical context, and more related to the penchant in recent generations to "solve" what are clearly political problems with military intervention, which invariably "bogs down".

Some 15 years ago I had a series of conversations with a Russian engineer that worked in the same company I worked for at the time. He was one of the brightest people I have ever met. And I got a lesson about Russian history and the Crimea. It was one of the few times he displayed an (over?)abundance of emotion on a subject we were discussing.

[jpatter666]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Fair point.

But my analog was less connected to the prior historical context, and more related to the penchant in recent generations to "solve" what are clearly political problems with military intervention, which invariably "bogs down".

Some 15 years ago I had a series of conversations with a Russian engineer that worked in the same company I worked for at the time. He was one of the brightest people I have ever met. And I got a lesson about Russian history and the Crimea. It was one of the few times he displayed an (over?)abundance of emotion on a subject we were discussing.

Not Iraq, but not Panama either. Ukraine has obvious ties to Russia, was part of Russia since the Tsars, a very large percentage of the population is Russian.

And yet.

It was brutalized by Russia during the initial conquest period, again during Lenin and Stalin's collectivization and formed the majority of the battleground of the WWI/II Russian front. I find no small irony that Ukraine desires to be part of a German-led EU.


It's fascinating that so many regions, having been part of a country for so long desire independence sometimes hundreds of years after the fact. Most of these (that I'm aware of -- but likely because that's the news focus) in the European region. Scotland, Basque region of Spain, etc. BTW -- Africa (and some parts of Asia) are still resolving neo-colonial issues. Not *quite* the same thing.

[Woodsman]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Not Iraq, but not Panama either.

Agree, typical of we Yanks always trying to fit the world into our template.

Ukraine has obvious ties to Russia, was part of Russia since the Tsars, a very large percentage of the population is Russian.
And yet [it] was brutalized by Russia during the initial conquest period, again during Lenin and Stalin's collectivization and formed the majority of the battleground of the WWI/II Russian front. I find no small irony that Ukraine desires to be part of a German-led EU.

I don't think any of us here in Fathappyland can connect with the degree of suffering these people have experienced practically without respite between 1914 and 1953. We scratch our heads at their behavior but I expect the post-Stalin leaders (esp Khrushchev ) seemed like little Jeffersons compared to bloody uncle Joe. Along comes independence and all the hope and expectations you might imagine a people might hold in their hearts, only to have them dashed again and again. It's crushing and I expect everyone who could leave, did.

It's fascinating that so many regions, having been part of a country for so long desire independence sometimes hundreds of years after the fact. Most of these (that I'm aware of -- but likely because that's the news focus) in the European region. Scotland, Basque region of Spain, etc. BTW -- Africa (and some parts of Asia) are still resolving neo-colonial issues. Not *quite* the same thing.

You know, in the end they want what everyone of us does, good governance and stable growth, and then to be left the hell alone. I hope they get it without too much pain.

I saw this piece by Mark Ames (wingman to Taibbi back in the day) that seems to spell things out with minimal recourse to the US/Russian propaganda bullsh!t. What do you think, jpat?

http://pando.com/2014/02/24/everythi...aine-is-wrong/

[jpatter666]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Agree, typical of we Yanks always trying to fit the world into our template.



I don't think any of us here in Fathappyland can connect with the degree of suffering these people have experienced practically without respite between 1914 and 1953. We scratch our heads at their behavior but I expect the post-Stalin leaders (esp Khrushchev ) seemed like little Jeffersons compared to bloody uncle Joe. Along comes independence and all the hope and expectations you might imagine a people might hold in their hearts, only to have them dashed again and again. It's crushing and I expect everyone who could leave, did.



You know, in the end they want what everyone of us does, good governance and stable growth, and then to be left the hell alone. I hope they get it without too much pain.

I saw this piece by Mark Ames (wingman to Taibbi back in the day) that seems to spell things out with minimal recourse to the US/Russian propaganda bullsh!t. What do you think, jpat?

http://pando.com/2014/02/24/everythi...aine-is-wrong/

Interesting. A level-headed nearly real-politik view of things. The point about the Ukrainian billionaires is especially salient; http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-955328.html

[don]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Ukrainian Neo-Nazis Declare that Power Comes Out of the Barrels of their Guns

Paul Craig Roberts

Reality on the ground in Ukraine contradicts the incompetent and immoral Obama regime’s portrait of Ukrainian democracy on the march.

To the extent that government exists in post-coup Ukraine, it is laws dictated by gun and threat wielding thugs of the neo-Nazi, Russophobic, ultra-nationalist, right-wing parties. Watch the video of the armed thug, Aleksandr Muzychko, who boosts of killing Russian soldiers in Chechnya, dictating to the Rovno regional parliament a grant of apartments to families of protesters. http://rt.com/news/radical-oppositio...echniques-882/

Read about the neo-nazis intimidating the Central Election Commission in order to secure rule and personnel changes in order to favor the ultra-right in the forthcoming elections. Thug Aleksandr Shevchenko informed the CEC that armed activists will remain in CEC offices in order to make certain that the election is not rigged against the neo-nazis. What he means, of course, is the armed thugs will make sure the neo-nazis win. If the neo-nazis don’t win, the chances are high that they will take power regardless.

Members of President Yanukovich’s ruling party, the Party of Regions, have been shot, had arrest warrants issued for them, have experienced home invasions and physical threats, and are resigning in droves in hopes of saving the lives of themselves and their families. The prosecutor’s office in the Volyn region (western Ukraine) has been ordered by ultra-nationalists to resign en masse .

Jewish synagogs and Eastern Orthodox Christian churches are being attacked.

To toot my own horn, I might have been the first and only to predict that Washington’s organization of pro-EU Ukrainian politicians into a coup against the elected government of Ukraine would destroy democracy and establish the precedent that force prevails over elections, thereby empowering the organized and armed extreme right-wing.

This is precisely what has happened. Note that there was no one in the Obama regime who had enough sense to see the obvious result of their smug, self-satisfied interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

If a democratically elected president and ruling party are so easily driven from power by armed neo-nazis, what chance do Washington’s paid stooges among the so-called “moderates” have of forming a government? These are the corrupt people who wanted President Yanukovich out of office so that they could take the money instead. The corruption charge against Yanukovich was cover for the disloyal, undemocratic “moderate” schemers to seize power and be paid millions of dollars by Washington for taking Ukraine into the EU and NATO.

The Washington-paid schemers are now reaping their just reward as they sit in craven silence while neo-nazi Muzychko wielding an Ak-47 challenges government officials to their face: “I dare you take my gun!”

Only Obama, Susan Rice, Victoria Nuland, Washington’s European puppets, and the Western prostitute media can describe the brutal reality of post-coup Ukraine as “the forward march of democracy.”

The West now faces a real mess, and so does Russia. The presstitutes will keep the American public from ever knowing what has happened, and the Obama regime will never admit it. It is not always clear that even the Russians want to admit it. The intelligent, reasonable, and humane Russian Foreign Minister, a person 100 cuts above the despicable John Kerry, keeps speaking as if this is all a mistake and appealing to the Western governments to stand behind the agreement that they pressured President Yanukovich to sign.

Yanukovich is history, as are Washington’s “moderates.” The moderates are not only corrupt; they are stupid. The fools even disbanded the Riot Police, leaving themselves at the mercy of the armed right-wing nazi thugs.

Ukraine is out of control. This is what happens when an arrogant, but stupid, Assistant Secretary of State (Victoria Nuland) plots with an equally arrogant and stupid US ambassador (Pyatt) to put their candidates in power once their coup against the elected president succeeds. The ignorant and deluded who deny any such plotting occurred can listen to the conversation between Nuland and Pyatt here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM&feature=player_embedded

The situation will almost certainly lead to war. Only Putin’s diplomatic skills could prevent it. However, Putin has been demonized by Washington and the whores who comprise the US print and TV media. European and British politicians would have their Washington paychecks cut off if they aligned with Putin.

War is unavoidable, because the Western public is out to lunch. The more facts and information I provide, the more emails I receive defending the “sincere [and well paid] protesters’ honest protests against corruption,” as if corruption were the issue. I hear from Ukrainians and from those of Ukrainian ethnicity in Canada and the US that it is natural for Ukrainians to hate Russians because Ukrainians suffered under communism, as if suffering under communism, which disappeared in 1991, is unique to Ukrainians and has anything to do with the US coup that has fallen into neo-nazi hands,

No doubt. Many suffered under communism, including Russians. But was the suffering greater than the suffering of Japanese civilians twice nuked by the “Indispensable people,” or the suffering by German civilians whose cities were firebombed, like Tokyo, by the “exceptional people”?

Today Japan and Germany are Washington’s puppet states. In contrast, Ukraine was an independent country with a working relationship with Russia. It was this relationship that Washington wished to destroy.

Now that a reckless and incompetent Washington has opened Pandora’s Box, more evil has been released upon the world. The suffering will not be confined to Ukraine.

There are a number of reasons why the situation is likely to develop in a very bad way. One is that most people are unable to deal with reality even when reality directly confronts them. When I provide the facts as they are known, here are some of the responses I receive: “You are a Putin agent;” “you hate Ukrainians;” “you are defending corruption;” “you must not know how Ukrainians suffered at the hands of Stalin.”

Of course, having done Russian studies in graduate school, having been a member of the US-USSR student exchange program in 1961, having traveled in Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, having published in scholarly journals of Slavic and Russian studies, having twice addressed the Soviet Academy of Sciences, having been invited to explain to the CIA why the Soviet economic collapse occurred despite the CIA’s predictions to the contrary, I wouldn’t know anything about how people suffered under communism. The willingness of readers to display to me their utter ignorance and stupidity is astonishing. There is a large number of people who think reality consists of their delusions.

Reality is simply too much for mentally and emotionally weak people who are capable of holding on to their delusions in the face of all evidence to the contrary. The masses of deluded people and the total inability of Washington, wallowing it its hubris, to admit a mistake, mean that Washington’s destabilization of Ukraine is a problem for us all.

RT reports that “Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an urgent military drill to test combat readiness of the armed forces across western and central Russia.” According to Russia’s Defense Minister, the surprise drill tested ground troops, Air Force, airborne troops and aerospace defense. http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/

The Defense Minister said: “The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all.”

Yes, of course. The Defense Minister says this, because Putin still hopes that the EU will come to its senses. In my opinion, and I hope I am wrong, the European “leaders” are too corrupted by Washington’s money to have any sense. They are bought-and-paid-for. Nothing is important to them but money.

Ask yourself, why does Russia need at this time an urgent readiness test unrelated to Ukraine? Anyone familiar with geography knows that western and central Russia sit atop Ukraine.

Let us all cross our fingers that another war is not the consequence of the insouciant American public, the craven cowardice of the presstitute media, Washington’s corrupt European puppets, and the utter mendacity of the criminals who rule in Washington.

[Woodsman]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Of course, having done Russian studies in graduate school, having been a member of the US-USSR student exchange program in 1961, having traveled in Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, having published in scholarly journals of Slavic and Russian studies, having twice addressed the Soviet Academy of Sciences, having been invited to explain to the CIA why the Soviet economic collapse occurred despite the CIA’s predictions to the contrary, I wouldn’t know anything about how people suffered under communism. The willingness of readers to display to me their utter ignorance and stupidity is astonishing. There is a large number of people who think reality consists of their delusions.

Love it. Did I mention a PhD from UVA and post grad work at Oxford, two scholarly and 9 popular books, hundreds of articles, congressional staffer, author of the Kemp-Roth tax cut, assistant treasury secretary, senior fellow at CSIS, Hoover and Cato, Wall Street journal editorial staff, member of French Legion of Honor, etc etc?

RT reports that “Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an urgent military drill to test combat readiness of the armed forces across western and central Russia.” According to Russia’s Defense Minister, the surprise drill tested ground troops, Air Force, airborne troops and aerospace defense. http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/

The Defense Minister said: “The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all.”

Ground, airborne, air defense units prepositioned. Stay behinds in Simferopol securing the airport. Russian troops in Sevastapol doing the same. Then there's the naval infantry troops of the Black Sea fleet in place and those recently arrived. And more are coming.

Field marshal Woodsman looks at his Risk board and thinks the Russians will soon have everything they need in place to secure the country East of the Dnieper. Strategically, it's a done deal.

The suffering will not be confined to Ukraine.

Absolutely goddamn right.

[gwynedd1]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Meanwhile what is being said about Ukrainian nationalism? Interesting how every movement that simply does not want to join a large political block are considred extremists. Such a thing is ripe for propaganda moments since they in the greatest desperation and cannot afford to be fussy They can easily be misrepesented by a small minority chosen by a puppet media. It was easy to find an idiot for Occupy WallStreet and this tactic worked brilliantly. I still think Ukraine should lean toward Russia only because the EU might otherwise swallow them. The point is however to remain between these two largey corrupt poltical blocks. If Russia became more powerful then I would suggest leaning towards the EU.

But now wishing to be an independent country means you are a Nazi and an extremist.

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/...emium-1.576905

[Southernguy]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Meanwhile what is being said about Ukrainian nationalism? Interesting how every movement that simply does not want to join a large political block are considred extremists. Such a thing is ripe for propaganda moments since they in the greatest desperation and cannot afford to be fussy They can easily be misrepesented by a small minority chosen by a puppet media. It was easy to find an idiot for Occupy WallStreet and this tactic worked brilliantly. I still think Ukraine should lean toward Russia only because the EU might otherwise swallow them. The point is however to remain between these two largey corrupt poltical blocks. If Russia became more powerful then I would suggest leaning towards the EU.

But now wishing to be an independent country means you are a Nazi and an extremist.

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/...emium-1.576905

From the very piece you quote: "Ukraine’s struggle for independence is plagued by memories of fascism. Nationalists fought more than once against the Soviets in the last century, even when it meant aligning with Nazi Germany."

Extreme nationalism is akin to fascism. In the case of Ukrania we are very near to secession. Look at the excelent map posted by Woodsman.

[don]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Pivot to the Left, now Pivot to the Right, Shake, shake, shake . . . . with all your might

Where's H L Mencken when we need him? No one ever lost money underestimating the mendacity of the Pentagon/NATO/CIA/State Department system. Especially now, when Ukrainian policy seems to have been subcontracted by the Obama administration to the likes of neo-con Victoria "F**k the EU" Nuland, married to Dubya darling neo-con Robert Kagan.

As Immanuel Wallerstein has already observed, [2] Nuland, Kagan and the neo-con gang are as much terrified of Russia "dominating" Ukraine as of a slowly emerging, and eventually quite possible, geopolitical alliance between Germany (with France as a junior partner) and Russia. That would mean the heart of the European Union forging a counter-power to the dwindling, increasingly wobbly American power.

And as the current embodiment of wobbly American power, the Obama administration is really in a class by itself. They are now lost in their own, self-concocted "pivot" maze. Which pivot comes first? That one to China? But then we need to pivot to Iran first - to end that Middle East distraction. Or maybe not.

Take this latest sound bite by US Secretary of State John Kerry, on Iran: "We took the initiative and led the effort to try to figure out if before we go to war there actually might be a peaceful solution."

So suddenly it's not about a nuclear deal to be possibly attained in 2014 anymore; it's about "if before we go to war". It's about bombing a possible deal so the Empire may bomb a country - again. Or maybe that's just a wet dream supplied by the Likudnik puppet masters.

The great Michael Hudson has speculated that "multi-dimensional chess" might be "guiding US moves in the Ukraine". Not really. It's more like if we can't pivot to China - yet - and if the pivot to Iran is going to fail anyway (because we want it to), we might as well pivot somewhere else. Oh yes, that pesky place that prevented us from bombing Syria; it's called Russia. And all that under the profound guidance of Victoria "F**k the EU" Nuland. Where's a neo-Aristophanes to chronicle these marvels?

And never forget US corporate media. That CNN hack has been Amanpouring lately about the Budapest Agreement - stressing Russia should stay out of Ukraine. Well, visibly a horde of producers at ratings-falling-to-the-floor CNN have not even read the Budapest Agreement which, as University of Illinois professor Francis Boyle has noted, "also states that the US, Russia, Ukraine, and UK need to immediately jointly 'consult' - meaning meet at least at the foreign minister level".

So who pays the bills?

The new prime minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, is - what else - a "technocratic reformer", code for Western puppet. [3] Ukraine is a (torn) basket case. The currency has fallen 20% since the start of 2014. Millions of unemployed Europeans know the European Union does not have the dough to bail out the country (perhaps Ukrainians could ask former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi for some tips).

In Pipelineistan terms, Ukraine is an appendix to Russia; it's Russian gas that transits through Ukraine to European markets. And Ukrainian industry depends on the Russian market.

Let's take a closer look at the new Aperol Spritz "revolutionary" wallet. Every month, the natural gas import bill from Russia is roughly US$1 billion. In January, the country also had to spend $1.1 billion in debt repayment. Foreign currency reserves plunged to $17.8 billion from $20.4 billion. Ukraine has a minimum debt repayment of no less than $17 billion in 2014. They even had to cancel a $2 billion eurobond issue late last week.

Frankly, Russian President Vladimir Putin - aka Vlad the Hammer - must be grinning like the Cheshire cat. He could simply erase the significant 33% discount on natural gas imports he gave Kiev late last year. Rumor after rumor already state - ominously - that the Aperol Spritz revolutionaries won't have the cash to pay pensions and public servants' salaries. In June comes a monster payment to a bunch of creditors ($1 billion in debt will mature). Afterwards, it's bleaker than north Siberia in winter.

The US offer of $1 billion is risible. And all this after the ""F**k the EU" "strategy" of Victoria Nuland torpedoed an Ukrainian transitional government - by the way, negotiated by the EU - which might have kept the Russians on board, money-wise.

Without Russia, Ukraine will totally depend on the West to pay all its bills, not to mention avoid being bankrupt. That amounts to a whopping $30 billion until the end of 2014. Unlike Egypt, they cannot dial the House of Saud's number and ask for some juicy petrodollars. That $15 billion loan from Russia promised recently could come in handy - but Moscow must get something in return.

The notion that Putin will order a military attack on the Ukraine should be billed to US corporate media's sub-zoological intellectual quotient. Vlad the Hammer just needs to watch the circus - as in the West squabbling about where to get those billions to be squandered in a (torn) basket case. Or the International Monetary Fund churning out yet another dreadful "structural adjustment" to send Ukraine's population back to the Paleolithic.

Crimea could even stage its own delayed carnival, voting not only for more autonomy but to leave the (torn) basket case altogether. In this case, Putin will even get Crimea for free - Krushchev-style. Not a bad deal. Thanks to that oh so strategic "F**k the EU" Russian "pivot".

Pepe Escobar

[gwynedd1]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

From the very piece you quote: "Ukraine’s struggle for independence is plagued by memories of fascism. Nationalists fought more than once against the Soviets in the last century, even when it meant aligning with Nazi Germany."

Extreme nationalism is akin to fascism. In the case of Ukrania we are very near to secession. Look at the excelent map posted by Woodsman.

Hi Southernguy,

Posting an article does not necessarily mean I agree with it. I may also agree with it in part.

I could draw a very similair map of Switzerland. Draw a map of Cananda and the US and suggest they join the US or perhaps the wolrd needs a Spanish speaking super state?

Exteme nationalism is only akin to facisim when the situation is described by exterme big state leftitsts perhaps.

I am simply stating that there are more options than joining Europe at the hip or becoming a neo SSR.

[don]

Hudson: Go West, Young Man!

March 1, 2014

By Jeffrey Sommers & Michael Hudson

“Let them loot.” That is the demand of the West when its NGO subsidiaries firebomb government buildings, murder policemen and loot the arms depots of military forts. Kiev is the equivalent of Kosovo as a Slavic city-of-origin. Are we seeing a replay?

What would Dick Cheney (or President Obama for that matter) have done if Russian NGOs sponsored separatist movements in Texas, California or New England? How would US police have reacted against armed revolutionaries seizing the armory and throwing Molotov cocktails and bombs at public buildings, killing police, painting swastikas on Jewish houses and claiming vigilante justice? While this does not characterize all of the Ukrainian protesters, it does reflect a fair number of them. If this is Obama’s “reset” with Russia, he is resetting the Cold War by setting the neocons loose in the former Soviet republics. If there is one thing that the CIA has shown its competence in, it is in setting one ethnic group against the others – Sunni vs Shiite, Kurd against Arab, Persian against them all. When other countries seek to defend a multi-ethnic secular state, the US foreign office has backed the fundamentalists for nearly the past half-century in all cases. This should be the sub-text for reporting on the Ukrainian uprising that seems to have been carefully timed to coincide with Sochi.

Events in Ukraine are provided enough heat to overshadow the conclusion of the Sochi Olympics. Since the USSR’s collapse, the “reset” has been changed many times during our long-running Ukrainian “play,” but the underlying theme remains the same as it has been in the Near East: Play the ethnic card to break the country into pieces if you want to disable government regulatory power and investment. Co-opt a client oligarchy whose opportunities for the West lie in privatizing public resources and selling shares in the rent-extracting companies on Western stock exchanges. Keep your proceeds in the West and fritter it away on trophy real estate, ownership of sports clubs and London or Swiss bank accounts.

The alternative would be for a strong government to tax away their natural resource rents and use it to subsidize industrial revival. So the path to “peace” is to promote civil warfare, break up countries and concentrate wealth in as few hands as possible so as to channel it to London, New York and other financial centers rather than leaving it to be invested at home. This is how Russia is being turned into a “hewer of wood and drawer of oil and gas for the house of my bond,” to paraphrase the Bible (Joshua: 9:23). “None of you will be freed from being bondservants.”

This is how American protectionists in the mid-19th century described British strategy for industrial and financial supremacy. And now the tables have been turned – not only against Britain (buckling under its own real estate bubble) but against the post-Communist economies that were utterly free of debt and privatized rent-yielding resources 20 years ago.

Rotating oligarchs shift in and out of this scenario, replacing one another in the rolling sequence of “color revolutions.” While Russian and Ukrainian nationalists spar in “Spy vs. Spy” fashion, Ukraine’s economy unravels and its people continue their exodus on an Old Testament scale to the Promised Land of the EU. Following Horace Greeley’s advice of “Go West, young man,” Ukrainians have joined the multitudes of “Polish plumbers” in the UK.

It didn’t have to be this way (and it still doesn’t). The stage was set in the closing stages of the Cold War. George H.W. Bush (the Elder) promised Mikhail Gorbachev that if the Soviets let the Warsaw Pact go and agreed to German reunification, Russia would not have to worry about further expansion of NATO. The United States then reneged by taking the former Warsaw Pact into NATO then moved into the former Soviet territory by absorbing the Baltic states – which, in geopolitical terms, were practically suburbs of St. Petersburg.

It is hard to blame the new entrants for wishing NATO entry, given their past Soviet occupation. This is the cross that Russia has had to bear for a generation, and it will continue to be a basis for the National Endowment for Democracy, the CIA and other “security” agencies to spur ethnic rivalry against Russians. To US neo-Cold Warriors, Stalinist oppression in the Soviet Union is what memories of the Holocaust are to Israel: In good Judeo-Christian tradition, it fans the flame of retaliation, resentment and revenge.

One can hardly blame Russians for feeling betrayed by the United States and NATO for breaking their word. More importantly, they see neocon Eurasionists in the State Department wanting even more. For neo-Cold Warriors the goal is the further breakup of Russia and its Near Abroad to create a neo-liberalized periphery, Baltic-style. Breaking up countries into small units controlled by kleptocrats who see their path to wealth being to privatize public assets and sell ownership shares to the West is the most effective way of preventing government subsidy of industry – and without industry there can be little military threat.

For Russia, this geopolitical game has an existential character. Ukraine looks like a dress rehearsal for separatist movements (much as the United States is sponsoring in China and already had achieved throughout the Near East). For Russia, NATO’s moves into Georgia cut too close to the bone and were repelled. The threat of NATO taking Ukraine represented a thrust into Russia’s geographic heart, the ancestral home where Russia was founded. (This should be read while turning up the volume on Prokofiev’s “Alexander Nevsky.”)

Timing is everything. If there were any time for an opponent of Russia to try to provoke an intemperate move, this was it. The Olympics were supposed to show a positive Russian face to the world, helping heal the old Cold War tensions. So from Mr. Putin’s vantage point, the worst thing that could happen would be a distraction to remind the world of old Soviet-era repression – such as arresting Pussy Riot singers. So of course, this was precisely what the Western press played up. To read The New York Times or The Washington Post, the real sporting event was whether the police would descend on Pussy Riot’s sideshow and could provoke Cossack goons into beating them up on camera.

While there certainly was legitimate protest against former President Viktor Yanukovych’s corrupt government, there was what seems provocation to get policemen (under violent attack from protesters) to defend themselves when they were fired upon by demonstrators brought into Kiev specifically to create a public relations disturbance.

Meanwhile, the EU seems bent on reprising its earlier eastward expansion of recent decades into the former Warsaw Pact to reap a windfall in exports of consumer goods. This helped alleviate the unemployment resulting from the Maastricht Treaty’s neoliberal fiscal and monetary austerity for the eurozone’s currency union. Yet, Ukraine’s purchasing potential is much lower than that of the countries that bordered Germany and were integrated into EU markets with heavy European subsidy. No Euro-export boom is likely to occur with any likely proposed association agreement. About the only thing the EU can achieve is to ensure a strong enough austerity program gets implemented in order to ensure the holders of Ukrainian bonds gets paid. Instead, the possible damage to Ukrainian markets from poorly executed trade liberalization and non-visa regimes may flood the EU with cheap labor by “Ukrainian plumbers.” But now that Europe’s real estate bubble has burst, where will they plumb?

So far, the neo-Cold War crossfire has left Ukraine indebted to Russia and the EU. Who will be liable for the 60 billion euros in Ukrainian bonds that Russians hold? Yields on ten-year bonds have just jumped above the 10 percent level (and shorter-term bonds much higher), indicating a general expectation of default. What will Russia charge for the gas it ships through Ukraine? Would a separatist NATO-Western Ukraine be able to buy gas at an equally low price as the Eastern Ukraine? Will Germans freeze in the dark?

When ethnic Ukrainians look to the EU as their savior, they have lost their sense of timing. They are seeing the last vestiges of a “Social Europe” that has been sacrificed on the altar of neoliberalism. Yanukovych had been urged to raise the VAT and tax labor all the more, but he resisted in order to prevent earlier popular unrest. Now that the Ukraine promises to move under Western neoliberal tutelage, the first policies that one can expect are higher taxes on labor and consumers – and an accelerated capital flight out of the country to the Eurozone and Switzerland.

Having suffered a generation under Stalin and his successors, Ukrainians will now be able to compare that to the hand of IMF central planners. Who needs a military thrust when a new round of shock therapy and austerity will do the trick more deftly?

Yanukovych is the kind of kleptocrat that neoliberals promised would enrich the post-Soviet states, except he committed the unforgivable sin of refusing to implement an EU/US-counseled austerity program. The aim is to transfer public wealth into the hands of private individuals who will be steered by the “Invisible Hand” (that of the sponsors of today’s color revolutions) to seek their gains by selling what they have taken to Western investors. Finance is the new mode of warfare, and we are seeing a grab for what military invasions in times past aimed at: land, natural resources and infrastructure monopolies.

Prior to Yanukovych’s overthrow, there was talk of a “reset” as the United States and Russia seemed to be moving toward a mutual accommodation. His departure from the scene places the United States and the EU back in a position of influence and will embolden hardline Eurasionists in the State Department, such as Victoria Nuland.

Meanwhile, the reappearance of Yulia Tymeshenko (who gained stature in jail) represents the return of ethnic Ukrainian oligarchs. They have been promised that they can get even richer by paying foreign bondholders – no doubt with an IMF or ECB destabilization program that will impose deep enough austerity to create an Irish-style Lost Generation.

There is little likelihood of national economic development. The aim is to empty out the nation’s capital, not create it. There will be no more consideration of Modern Monetary Theory or Land Value Tax alternatives. The US/EU plan is the same neoliberal strategy designed to demilitarize the post-Soviet states by de-industrializing them and driving their population to emigrate.

“Structural adjustment” (today’s euphemism for austerity) will continue loading down Ukraine with debt, using it as a lever to control its economic policy. Meanwhile, Russia offers debt relief (or at least more loans) without development, because it itself still partially remains under the thrall of neoliberalism.

Russia and Ukraine would benefit from an alternative economic policy based on regional capital investment in economic development. Russia and Ukraine need to halt the capital flight of their oligarchs to offshore banking sites in places such as London and Riga, and instead mobilize their natural resources, real estate and monopoly rents for domestic investment. Such moves would be denounced by the epicenters of “tax dumping” (London and New York). Currently, the IMF/European Central Bank wants supersede post-Soviet governments as their new central planners whose results can only accelerate kleptocratic looting.

[vt]

Re: Hudson: Go West, Young Man!

The Ukrainians don't need any Neocons nor any Neocommunists. All we're seeing in such commentary as this is one bad choice condemning another bad choice. A dictatorship of the politburo or a dictatorship of the kleptocrats. A pox on both!

Ukrainians need Freedom. Free markets to develop their agricultural advantage. Freedom of speech. Communism is a total failure that no one wants to go back to, but we also need to tame the FIRE elements worldwide and grow the middle class across the globe.

We do know that people are tossing off the chains of tyranny across the world. What is wrong with that? It's chaotic but hopefully better days will be ahead.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Hudson: Go West, Young Man!

I wonder if Russia were funding anti-Americanism in Canada what we would do? I wonder what would happen if , given our former good relations ,we let them administer the state of Michigan. I wonder what the US would do if the former Michigan residents asked to join the US again fearing they could be potential targets of ethnic cleansing? I wonder what would happen if Russia would issue a warning to the US not to make any grave mistakes about Michigan?

Either the Ukrainian nationals make it a neutral country or it splits. No other way around it. That is why Switzerland did not join a German union because the Italian and French portions would tear it apart. Any other option means evil and stupidity are at work.

[Woodsman]

Re: Hudson: Go West, Young Man!

I wonder if Russia were funding anti-Americanism in Canada what we would do? I wonder what would happen if , given our former good relations ,we let them administer the state of Michigan. I wonder what the US would do if the former Michigan residents asked to join the US again fearing they could be potential targets of ethnic cleansing? I wonder what would happen if Russia would issue a warning to the US not to make any grave mistakes about Michigan?

We are the exceptional people of the Earth chosen by God to lead the world's people to freedom. Therefore any equivalence with the acts of other, non-exceptional states is false. Even when we act immorally as in the case of slavery, civil rights, Vietnam, it is merely evidence of virtue as yet to be manifest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaga...y.22_countries