PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

[vt]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

http://www.businessinsider.com/wikis...nvasion-2014-3

[FrankL]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Hi lakedaemonian,

The problem I have with the BBR(Big Bad Russia) motif is not one over politics. If I may quote The Godfather Part III - finance is the gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger - Russia is clearly very skilled in many of the old ways of espionage. However they just don't have the 21st century warfare capabilities in propaganda and finance. Its not even close. All Russia has done is the equivalent of the US moving a few battalions in parts of Canada with Canadians welcoming them with open arms. They don;t have the old Warsaw pact countries. They don't have many of the old Soviet SSRs. They just are not a credible threat with the except of an out right escalation to heavy, nuclear weaponry. And......The funny thing is that all we have done is push them in China's sphere of influence, more or less creating the threat that never was there.

The US is clearly not acting in its national interests. It is acting for the sake of powerful international interests.

I respectfully disagree.
The us has managed to put european interest completely opposed to russian interests by stirring up trouble in Ukraine. The eu leadership fell for it hook, line and sinker.
Mission accomplished.

[BadJuju]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

I respectfully disagree.
The us has managed to put european interest completely opposed to russian interests by stirring up trouble in Ukraine. The eu leadership fell for it hook, line and sinker.
Mission accomplished.

Honestly, I think this is an overwhelming victory for the USA. Russia has essentially killed themselves diplomatically all for a small piece of nearly worthless territory. The West will get Western Ukraine. Former Soviet Bloc countries will be immensely wary of Russia now and will have good reason to seek out the West. Europe will have even more reasons to sever ties with Russia. The long game here has Russia losing big.

[Woodsman]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Honestly, I think this is an overwhelming victory for the USA. Russia has essentially killed themselves diplomatically all for a small piece of nearly worthless territory. The West will get Western Ukraine. Former Soviet Bloc countries will be immensely wary of Russia now and will have good reason to seek out the West. Europe will have even more reasons to sever ties with Russia. The long game here has Russia losing big.

Son, run - don't walk - to your nearest GOP precinct HQ, introduce yourself and get to work. With that attitude and mindset, a bright future there is assured for you. And I'm only half-joking.

[BadJuju]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

I don't see how it has anything to do with GOP politics. I hate the Republican party.

Russia has not done a thing to benefit themselves here. If any country is working against self-interest in this conflict, it is Russia.

[Woodsman]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

I don't see how it has anything to do with GOP politics. I hate the Republican party.

Russia has not done a thing to benefit themselves here. If any country is working against self-interest in this conflict, it is Russia.

Easy, it was a joke. Although if you can convince yourself of this I can almost guarantee that you would be a success in GOP politics. [another joke]

Anyway, I think your opinion here is wrong and unsupported by what's happening, that's all. It's simply my opinion and I honestly meant no harm or foul. Forgives?

Between the two opinions lies the truth, but hell if either one of us has much of a handle on it.

[BadJuju]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Can you explain to me what Russia meaningfully gains here? A small slice of territory and perhaps the undermining of Western authority; however, that comes at a significant diplomatic cost. And will create a major wedge between them and former Soviet states. It just seems like this will only serve to empower the West in the long-term.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Russia's Changes

What about people yearning to be free? Russia has a poor Bill of Rights. Plus this was a violation of a treaty they signed.

What Treaty? You mean the Budapest memorandum?

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

The West violated it first. The West of course got out of the technicality with NGOs....

So Putin avoid the military intervention technicality by taking off the insignia, tit for tat.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Russia's Changes

Hi lakedaemonian,

The problem I have with the BBR(Big Bad Russia) motif is not one over politics. If I may quote The Godfather Part III - finance is the gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger - Russia is clearly very skilled in many of the old ways of espionage. However they just don't have the 21st century warfare capabilities in propaganda and finance. Its not even close. All Russia has done is the equivalent of the US moving a few battalions in parts of Canada with Canadians welcoming them with open arms. They don;t have the old Warsaw pact countries. They don't have many of the old Soviet SSRs. They just are not a credible threat with the except of an out right escalation to heavy, nuclear weaponry. And......The funny thing is that all we have done is push them in China's sphere of influence, more or less creating the threat that never was there.

The US is clearly not acting in its national interests. It is acting for the sake of powerful international interests.

I would agree.

And for the record, my previous posts about Putin and his network is simply my observations of how the Russian flavour of crony capitalism developed. It would be pretty hard for me to take a position of Big Bad Russia without also taking a position on the special interest controlled US.

I would agree that Russia's actions, to me, represent a mix of highly developed professional and immature amateur.

The Russians have a decent history of foreign intervention and I think they pulled it off reasonably well(as they have in the past) in terms of effective tactical, operational mechanics….albeit the private military contractor angle of the sanitised and generic uniforms worn by Spetsnaz/Alfa units was both borderline implausible as well as a useful tactic in the day of instant global connectivity.

But even if Russia's mass media shaping may appear to be lacking compared to western "propaganda incorporated", don't forget that the Soviet Union playbook that was so successful in shaping western perceptions(anti-Vietnam efforts, anti-nuke efforts, etc) is surely still lying around FSB headquarters somewhere. I would not underestimate Russia in terms of propaganda based on Soviet history. The Soviets were absolute masters in some regards.

I would agree that the immediate financial/economic warfare threat from Russia seems quite low in the short to medium term. But I do wonder if they focus on a decade+ long game of accelerating and assisting in the dismantling of the US Dollar what impact that will have.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Can you explain to me what Russia meaningfully gains here? A small slice of territory and perhaps the undermining of Western authority; however, that comes at a significant diplomatic cost. And will create a major wedge between them and former Soviet states. It just seems like this will only serve to empower the West in the long-term.

I was under the impression that the Russian lease of Sevastapol naval base came at a fairly substantial cost in terms of Natural Gas after the last Ukrainian/Russian dustup over NG a few years back.

I'm assuming that if Crimea is viewed by Russia as Russian, then there's no longer any naval base lease.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Honestly, I think this is an overwhelming victory for the USA. Russia has essentially killed themselves diplomatically all for a small piece of nearly worthless territory. The West will get Western Ukraine. Former Soviet Bloc countries will be immensely wary of Russia now and will have good reason to seek out the West. Europe will have even more reasons to sever ties with Russia. The long game here has Russia losing big.

I agree that Russia may have made a strategic blunder, but how exactly will Europe sever ties to Russia when they are so reliant on Russian energy?

I always suspected Libya was a strategic move by NATO/Western Europe as a possible long-term option to counter increasing reliance on Russian energy.

Europe may not like Russian diplomacy, but are they in a position to actually do much about it, other than cook in their office buildings in summer and freeze in the winter out of spite?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Russia's Changes

Hi lakedaemonian,


They don't have many of the old Soviet SSRs. They just are not a credible threat with the except of an out right escalation to heavy, nuclear weaponry.

Almost forgot to add…..

Yup, Russia's conventional forces are a shadow of their former selves and only recently have they received a decent injection of modern systems. They are slowly on their way up, but from rock bottom.

But NATO's drawdown over the last 20+ years has been equally massive.

NATO has reoriented its force structure to be much, much smaller, lighter, faster, and expeditionary(with a focus OUTSIDE of Europe). NATO is not capable of fighting in Europe against Russia anymore than Russia is capable of fighting NATO in the Cold War sense. For example, the US doesn't have a single tank left in Europe.

The NATO effort against Libya is a great example of NATO's growing weakness, due to its excessive and outsized reliance on US support to pull it off.

[gwynedd1]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

I respectfully disagree.
The us has managed to put european interest completely opposed to russian interests by stirring up trouble in Ukraine. The eu leadership fell for it hook, line and sinker.
Mission accomplished.

Hi Frankl,

I'm listening. You believe that the US is trying to drive a wedge between Russia and the EU?

[don]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

Hi Frankl,

I'm listening. You believe that the US is trying to drive a wedge between Russia and the EU?

A few, of many things, to consider.

For how many years has the US been tightening its encirclement of Russia?

And what is one of its main weapons of choice in doing so?

NATO

[BadJuju]

Re: PC Roberts on the Ukrainian Question

I agree that Russia may have made a strategic blunder, but how exactly will Europe sever ties to Russia when they are so reliant on Russian energy?

I always suspected Libya was a strategic move by NATO/Western Europe as a possible long-term option to counter increasing reliance on Russian energy.

Europe may not like Russian diplomacy, but are they in a position to actually do much about it, other than cook in their office buildings in summer and freeze in the winter out of spite?

Short-term there isn't much that can be done; however, I think this will just greatly quicken the move towards non-Russian energy reliance. And it will just serve to push former Soviet countries into NATO and the EU. I just don't personally see the long-term benefit of annexing Crimea. It comes at a significant cost politically and economically. And I can only imagine that it was motivated more by domestic concerns than anything else.