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Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

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  • Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

    of course it could never match the tsunami of wealth transferred via the Housing Bubble but if securitizing auto loans and house rentals are what's available in triage, FIRE's ready, willing and . . . .

    U.S. car buyers borrow more as rates fall and standards loosen

    By David Henry

    (Reuters) - U.S. consumers buyers are taking out bigger car loans with longer pay-back periods as lenders offer lower interest rates and accept borrowers with weaker credit ratings, a report released on Wednesday showed.

    The average loan on a new car climbed to $26,719 in the third quarter, up by $756 from a year earlier, and the most in at least five years, according to data collected by Experian Plc.

    Despite borrowing so much more, average monthly payments on new car loans rose only $6 to $458. That is because banks and finance companies were willing to lend at lower rates and grant borrowers more time to repay.

    The average interest rate fell to 4.27 percent from 4.53 percent a year earlier and the average loan term stretched one more month to five years and five months, according to Experian.

    "The third quarter of 2013 proved to be a good time to purchase a new vehicle, particularly for consumers who buy based on their monthly payments," Melinda Zabritski, senior director of automotive credit for Experian Automotive, said in a statement from the data and analytical firm. "Shoppers perceive they are getting better deals and manufacturers and dealers are boosting sales," she said.

    Major automakers reported their best U.S. sales month in 6-1/2 years in November as the industry's annual U.S. sales pace reached 16.41 million vehicles, the best showing since February 2007, according to industry research firm Autodata. That handily beat expectations for a rate of 15.75 million.

    The Experian report suggests that easier credit contributed to the sales increase, as did discounts by manufacturers and the popularity of big pickup trucks.

    Leasing has also increased and accounted for 27.2 percent of all new financing in the quarter, up from 24.4 percent a year ago and 14.2 percent in 2009.

    The Toyota Financial Services unit of Toyota Motor Corp had the biggest share of new leases, with 15.2 percent, according to Experian. Well Fargo & Co made the most loans, with 5.4 percent of the total.

    Lenders made 26.04 percent of their loans on new cars to buyers with subprime credit scores, up from 24.84 percent a year earlier, said Experian, which collects car title and financing information to compile its reports. For loans on used cars, the portion to subprime borrowers rose to 54.95 percent from 54.43 percent.

    As the lenders made bigger loans, they also extended credit further beyond the value of the vehicles. The average loan-to-value on new cars rose to 110.6 percent, up by 1.17 percentage points. On used cars it rose to 133.2 percent, up by 2.18 percentage points.

    Auto lenders often provide loans that exceed the value of cars they are financing because borrowers want cash to pay sales taxes and fees.

    Extra-long loans are becoming more common. Some 19 percent of new car loans were made for more than six years, up from 16.4 percent a year earlier.

    For lenders, car loans performed much better in the last recession than had been expected. Some lenders have said that strapped consumers were more determined to keep up their car payments than their house payments because they needed vehicles to get to work or look for jobs.

    That experience has encouraged lenders to be more lenient with people borrowing for cars. So far, the tactic has largely worked. The percentage of loans 30-days delinquent was down in the third quarter to 2.58 percent from 2.67 percent a year earlier, Experian said.

    However, the average loss on loans gone bad jumped to $7,770 in the third quarter from $7,026 a year earlier and repossessions increased sharply, particularly for subprime borrowers.

  • #2
    Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

    72 month loans are becoming fairly routine. Explains all the $50,000 pickups I see being driven by twenty somethings.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

      twenty somethings
      no nothing

      maybe they could start a party - oops, they already have . . .

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

        Originally posted by flintlock View Post
        72 month loans are becoming fairly routine. Explains all the $50,000 pickups I see being driven by twenty somethings.
        Not sure how it is where you are. Every time I see some teenager/early 20s bro driving a $50,000 vehicle I imagine it has NY or NJ plates and the kid's up here for college. It's far from a scientific sample, but it does seem that more often than not, I'm right. Daddy buys it. The vast majority who are younger with local plates seems to drive whatever's cheap and lying around.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

          Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
          Not sure how it is where you are. Every time I see some teenager/early 20s bro driving a $50,000 vehicle I imagine it has NY or NJ plates and the kid's up here for college. It's far from a scientific sample, but it does seem that more often than not, I'm right. Daddy buys it. The vast majority who are younger with local plates seems to drive whatever's cheap and lying around.
          or plates from CA, in some places...

          and i'm seeing ads for cars showing absolutely teeny monthlies*
          with the fine print below the BIG SPLASHY STUFF
          in barely readable fonts casually noting 84mos

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

            As the general malaise spreads, articulated as WTF, Who Gives a Sh*t, What Difference Does It Make, expect more of this.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

              There's a few reasons for this and its not necessarily risky lending. One the collateral is good as in easy to collect (unlike a house) so the investors like it and in ZIRP willing to invest. Two the historical loss rate for auto secured or unsecured is very very low. Three price inflation is maintaining high residual and resale values. The third factor may be the biggest factor as residuals and resale values have skyrocketed over the last 5 years from the 09 bottom driven largely by insatiable foreign demand for autos and increases in material costs. For example I purchased two low mileage sports cars for a steal in 2010 and they have actually appreciated over the last 3 years which is unheard of - it's very easy to loan for an auto when you know the asset won't depreciate much and the buyer is willing to put in a small down. Throw in the mfg subsidies to sweeten the purchase and you have booming auto sales.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                Originally posted by jr429 View Post
                There's a few reasons for this and its not necessarily risky lending. One the collateral is good as in easy to collect (unlike a house) so the investors like it and in ZIRP willing to invest. Two the historical loss rate for auto secured or unsecured is very very low. Three price inflation is maintaining high residual and resale values. The third factor may be the biggest factor as residuals and resale values have skyrocketed over the last 5 years from the 09 bottom driven largely by insatiable foreign demand for autos and increases in material costs. For example I purchased two low mileage sports cars for a steal in 2010 and they have actually appreciated over the last 3 years which is unheard of - it's very easy to loan for an auto when you know the asset won't depreciate much and the buyer is willing to put in a small down. Throw in the mfg subsidies to sweeten the purchase and you have booming auto sales.
                Your insightful analysis is the exception to the rule.

                Remember the timeworn axiom -
                No Shearing Without Sheeple!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                  Haven't you heard, without free access to credit, the economy grinds to a halt.

                  Brings new meaning and inversion to the concept of "pay it forward" ... more like "pay us forward"

                  The current economic model is moving towards:

                  FIRE creates fiat capital for free and lends at interest, collects fees and then sells to GSE or securitizes to pension funds ( FIRE secures guaranteed returns w/o risk - read RENT)
                  Borrowers borrow and spend/invest causing economic boom and everyone is flush and wealthy (some animals more than others)
                  The boom goes parabolic until there are no further borrowers (e.g., buyers of assets) at which point the crash ensues
                  Asset holders dispossessed of assets by creditors; Largest TBTF creditors bailed out by gov,
                  Fed policy turns on liquidity spigot; FIRE with access to liquidity buy distressed assets, packages and resells to public
                  Fed reflation takes hold. Repeat cycle, and watch wealth inequality increase - i.e. from all that hard work getting close to the money spigot, getting insider information, and riding and timing the exit of a bubble destined to collapse.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                    Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
                    Haven't you heard, without free access to credit, the economy grinds to a halt.

                    Brings new meaning and inversion to the concept of "pay it forward" ... more like "pay us forward"

                    The current economic model is moving towards:

                    FIRE creates fiat capital for free and lends at interest, collects fees and then sells to GSE or securitizes to pension funds ( FIRE secures guaranteed returns w/o risk - read RENT)
                    Borrowers borrow and spend/invest causing economic boom and everyone is flush and wealthy (some animals more than others)
                    The boom goes parabolic until there are no further borrowers (e.g., buyers of assets) at which point the crash ensues
                    Asset holders dispossessed of assets by creditors; Largest TBTF creditors bailed out by gov,
                    Fed policy turns on liquidity spigot; FIRE with access to liquidity buy distressed assets, packages and resells to public
                    Fed reflation takes hold. Repeat cycle, and watch wealth inequality increase - i.e. from all that hard work getting close to the money spigot, getting insider information, and riding and timing the exit of a bubble destined to collapse.
                    All enhanced and made more wonderfully possible by ZIRP.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                      Originally posted by don View Post
                      As the general malaise spreads, articulated as WTF, Who Gives a Sh*t, What Difference Does It Make, expect more of this.
                      and with that, there goes somewhere tween 47% and 51% of the electorate...

                      ;)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                        Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                        72 month loans are becoming fairly routine. Explains all the $50,000 pickups I see being driven by twenty somethings.
                        When car shopping I start out around 50k too.

                        Opps, did I forget to mention that was miles?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                          Makes sense. More people are sleeping in their cars.


                          Not really FIRE though. Need some sort of acronym out of : finance, automobile, repossession, transportation sector, etc. Probably could put something in there about gas too.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                            Originally posted by gwynedd1 View Post
                            When car shopping I start out around 50k too.

                            Opps, did I forget to mention that was miles?
                            A $50k car is very average here in California now courtesy of the weakening dollar. Most entry level luxury cars start at ~$40k and as equipped are typically $44k or so. That's $50k OTD factoring in 8.75% sales tax. It is what it is...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Subprime Auto Filling FIRE's MBS Void?

                              Its wonderful news really.

                              http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/Current/

                              It has allowed me to continue to deleverage even my rather modest and conservative mortgage rather quickly. I had wondered who would do me this favor. The consumer has exceeded my expectations.

                              Comment

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