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  • 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

    the times says 40 billion, is that part of the ka-billion bailout hangover that never ends? (remember when a billion was a serious number)

    Two billion planets in our galaxy may be suitable for life







    Our galaxy probably contains at least two billion planets that, like Earth, have liquid water on their surfaces and orbit around their parent stars in the "habitable zone" for life. The nearest, according to astronomers, could be a mere 12 light years away.

    A new study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that Earth-like planets capable of supporting life are far more common than previously thought. Using measurements from Nasa's Kepler space observatory, scientists led by Erik Petigura at the University of California, Berkeley, estimated that 22% of our galaxy's sun-like stars have rocky planets circling them in the zone where they get roughly the same amount of light energy as Earth receives from the sun. There are around 100bn stars in our galaxy, of which 10% are like the sun.

    So far Kepler has studied more than 150,000 stars and identified more than 3,000 candidate planets, but many of these are "gas giants", similar to Jupiter, that orbit close to their parent stars. If there is life out there, it is far more likely to have evolved on rocky planets with liquid water on their surfaces, similar to Earth.

    To get their results, Petigura's team looked for planets in Kepler data that had a radius up to double that of Earth. They searched for planets that orbited far enough from their star that liquid water would not evaporate, but not so far that the water would all freeze.

    Subhanjoy Mohanty, an astrophysicist at Imperial College London who was not involved with the study, said: "This is the first estimate of the frequency of Earth-like planets around sun-like stars, in orbits large enough to lie in the habitable zone of their stars. The finding that roughly one in five sun-like stars may host such planets is an incredibly important one, probably exceeding the expectations of most cautious astronomers."

    He added that the latest analysis increased the chances that there might be life somewhere among the stars. "Previous analyses of Kepler data had shown that red dwarfs – the most common type of star in the galaxy, making up about 80% of the stellar population – very frequently harbour Earth-size planets, including in their habitable zones. This new study shows that the same is true around stars more like our own sun. This is certainly an added impetus for planned future missions which will study the atmospheres of these potentially habitable planets, enabling us to investigate whether they are in fact habitable or not, and also whether their atmospheres show actual biosignatures of existing life."

    Nasa also announced on Monday that the Kepler probe would be given a new lease of life, following fears that it would have to end its mission after only four years in space. In May 2013, scientists discovered that one of the gyroscopic wheels – known as "reaction wheels" – that kept the probe pointing in the right direction had stopped working and, try as they might, Nasa engineers could not restart it. Unable to point itself at the stars with any accuracy, the probe could no longer be used to collect data about the position of new exoplanets.

    But it looks as though there could be a solution that involves reorienting the probe to look along the plane of the galaxy, which will allow it to remain stable with only two of its reaction wheels working. "The old saying 'necessity is the mother of invention' has rung true here, with engineers and scientists from Nasa and the spacecraft manufacturers having figured out this way to – we hope – recover much of the performance we thought we had lost. We are very excited," said Bill Chaplin, an astrophysicist at the University of Birmingham in the UK.

    If all goes well, the new Kepler mission – dubbed "K2" – will look for planets around smaller stars than the sun, and will also study the stars themselves. "There are a wealth of fantastically interesting targets for astrophysics that can be observed in the ecliptic plane, which were not accessible in the original Kepler field, notably brighter clusters of stars – where the common origins and distances to these stars make the clusters excellent laboratories for testing our understanding of stars – and young, star-forming regions," said Chaplin.

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2...xy-life-kepler

  • #2
    Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

    Originally posted by don View Post
    the times says 40 billion, is that part of the ka-billion bailout hangover that never ends? (remember when a billion was a serious number)

    Two billion planets in our galaxy may be suitable for life







    Our galaxy probably contains at least two billion planets that, like Earth, have liquid water on their surfaces and orbit around their parent stars in the "habitable zone" for life. The nearest, according to astronomers, could be a mere 12 light years away.

    A new study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that Earth-like planets capable of supporting life are far more common than previously thought. Using measurements from Nasa's Kepler space observatory, scientists led by Erik Petigura at the University of California, Berkeley, estimated that 22% of our galaxy's sun-like stars have rocky planets circling them in the zone where they get roughly the same amount of light energy as Earth receives from the sun. There are around 100bn stars in our galaxy, of which 10% are like the sun.

    So far Kepler has studied more than 150,000 stars and identified more than 3,000 candidate planets, but many of these are "gas giants", similar to Jupiter, that orbit close to their parent stars. If there is life out there, it is far more likely to have evolved on rocky planets with liquid water on their surfaces, similar to Earth.

    To get their results, Petigura's team looked for planets in Kepler data that had a radius up to double that of Earth. They searched for planets that orbited far enough from their star that liquid water would not evaporate, but not so far that the water would all freeze.

    Subhanjoy Mohanty, an astrophysicist at Imperial College London who was not involved with the study, said: "This is the first estimate of the frequency of Earth-like planets around sun-like stars, in orbits large enough to lie in the habitable zone of their stars. The finding that roughly one in five sun-like stars may host such planets is an incredibly important one, probably exceeding the expectations of most cautious astronomers."

    He added that the latest analysis increased the chances that there might be life somewhere among the stars. "Previous analyses of Kepler data had shown that red dwarfs – the most common type of star in the galaxy, making up about 80% of the stellar population – very frequently harbour Earth-size planets, including in their habitable zones. This new study shows that the same is true around stars more like our own sun. This is certainly an added impetus for planned future missions which will study the atmospheres of these potentially habitable planets, enabling us to investigate whether they are in fact habitable or not, and also whether their atmospheres show actual biosignatures of existing life."

    Nasa also announced on Monday that the Kepler probe would be given a new lease of life, following fears that it would have to end its mission after only four years in space. In May 2013, scientists discovered that one of the gyroscopic wheels – known as "reaction wheels" – that kept the probe pointing in the right direction had stopped working and, try as they might, Nasa engineers could not restart it. Unable to point itself at the stars with any accuracy, the probe could no longer be used to collect data about the position of new exoplanets.

    But it looks as though there could be a solution that involves reorienting the probe to look along the plane of the galaxy, which will allow it to remain stable with only two of its reaction wheels working. "The old saying 'necessity is the mother of invention' has rung true here, with engineers and scientists from Nasa and the spacecraft manufacturers having figured out this way to – we hope – recover much of the performance we thought we had lost. We are very excited," said Bill Chaplin, an astrophysicist at the University of Birmingham in the UK.

    If all goes well, the new Kepler mission – dubbed "K2" – will look for planets around smaller stars than the sun, and will also study the stars themselves. "There are a wealth of fantastically interesting targets for astrophysics that can be observed in the ecliptic plane, which were not accessible in the original Kepler field, notably brighter clusters of stars – where the common origins and distances to these stars make the clusters excellent laboratories for testing our understanding of stars – and young, star-forming regions," said Chaplin.

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2...xy-life-kepler
    Thank you for this Don. My astronomy professor back in college asked the question "there are virtually an infinite number of planets in the universe, what is the probability that one holds life?"

    It is pretty apparent that life exists outside of our infinitesimally small planet, we just haven't found it yet. And most likely intelligent life.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

      Originally posted by ProdigyofZen View Post
      Thank you for this Don. My astronomy professor back in college asked the question "there are virtually an infinite number of planets in the universe, what is the probability that one holds life?"

      It is pretty apparent that life exists outside of our infinitesimally small planet, we just haven't found it yet. And most likely intelligent life.
      It seems likely, with this information, that life, when conditions are right, begins and evolves through natural selection and the environmental parameters of any particular planet, then at some point ends. When the magnitude of potentially inhabited planets in our galaxy alone is in the billions, it's not a stretch that this "life cycle" is going on simultaneously in multiple locations. Is that a bad thing for us? Hardly. Knowledge of life in the broadest, galactic sense enhances our appreciation of life here on Earth. We still have to wrestle with our baser instincts, and the vested interests of obfuscation, but soldier on we must.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

        FOR SALE: Charming 7 continent, single moon fixer-upper in Sirius Sector. Fantastic bargain for the right buyer. This relatively young planet has great orbit appeal with a nearly circular route around its G2 primary at an average distance of 1.1 Zorklahts. Biosphere is only moderately polluted by the dominant lifeform, which only recently achieved primitive space capability. The large moon produces strong tidal actions upon the diverse oceans covering two thirds planetary surface. Deposit is low at only 200,000 metric tons (local measure) Au (4 9's). After three surveys the Galactic Protective Service has declared the planet free of intelligent life and suitable for occupation at the buyer's earliest convenience. The radical Archon Anarchist Association has contended that there are several intelligent air breathing swimmer species in the oceans, but the AAA have no official standing with the GPS, and in any case the alleged sentients are quite non-violent and even playful with most creatures. They are also non-technic.

        Mineral rights for the local asteroid belt are available for a negotiated premium.

        The dominant pseudo sentient species is aggressive, paranoid, and borderline insane, but possessed of only grade 1 nuclear weapons, and an estimated grade DD+ tech ability. The Mielmacht Mercenary Mobile Mechs conducted the last two surveys as the GPS contractor and thus will offer a 10% discount for their five nine's clearcut pest termination service against the local "humans" as they refer to themselves. Contact the MMMM office on Tantris IV for more information.

        This soon to be delightful world could be your species' world away from home, colony, or any other GPS approved purpose. War gaming would require additional fees and permits, but unrestricted hunting of the "humans" is included in the list price. While they may be freely hunted, the "human" species is under class XXXX quarantine and may not be removed from their home planet for any reason. (Remember the Orkin Catastrophe) Severe fines, penalties, and sanctions up to and including speciecide will be levied against any offenders.

        This out of the way but charming orb will be sold at the best price before the next scheduled Super Nova. Sellers are motivated. Remit all inquiries to All Star Realtors who have the exclusive contract with the current owners, the Rothchild et al clan of the Reptiloid Resurgence Racial Recovery Alliance.

        Peace to all peaceful sentients. Long live the Galactic Overlord, Uber Empereor Xeithor the 2.56487 E11, Diergor of Orion, Lord of the Magellanic Cloud, etc. etc. etc.
        "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

          To: All Star Realtors
          cc: Rothchild et al clan of the Repliloid Resurgence Racial Recovery Alliance
          From: Caninicas Major

          Our Sires and Bitches feel a strong attraction to this planet and it's "human" species, but we have one very important question. What do these "humans" taste like?
          "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

            Reassuring to hear that RE pitching is Universal

            Well done.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

              Thank you, Don.

              Of course, RE is a necessary part of a balanced economy. The Galactic culture above all else honors sanity; thus the Galactic Prime Directive is: LET THE BUYER BEWARE.

              The Galactic Empire has only a handful of laws, but these are strictly and rigidly enforced. Penalties may be mild or existentially extreme, but they are always enforced quickly and without mercy. Over millions of millennia only a handful of species have ever repeated their crimes, especially those that were exterminated. Joining the Galactic Empire is difficult but always voluntary. The act of joining is considered as entering into a non-revocable contract the same as a business deal. Therefore, carefully consider the GPD: LET THE BUYER BEWARE.
              "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                "This is the first estimate of the frequency of Earth-like planets around sun-like stars, in orbits large enough to lie in the habitable zone of their stars. The finding that roughly one in five sun-like stars may host such planets is an incredibly important one, probably exceeding the expectations of most cautious astronomers."
                What's the confidence interval on that "first estimate?" The sampling sounds pretty weak. 150e3 examined out of 100e9 is 6 orders of magnitude in difference. 3000 out of 150,000 is 2%, so that's almost 2 more orders of magnitude. To draw a conclusion on such a small sample set seems a bit premature to get very excited about, no?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                  According to an article I read some years ago, there is also a habitable zone wrt the Galactic Center. Too close to the center and planetary orbits are disturbed and planets subjected to too much radiation and/or debris. I do not remember the magazine, but it might have been SA.
                  "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                    Originally posted by stealthcat View Post
                    What's the confidence interval on that "first estimate?" The sampling sounds pretty weak. 150e3 examined out of 100e9 is 6 orders of magnitude in difference. 3000 out of 150,000 is 2%, so that's almost 2 more orders of magnitude. To draw a conclusion on such a small sample set seems a bit premature to get very excited about, no?
                    There's nothing to worry about. The Ph.D.s who came up with these estimates used the same advanced mathematics and modelling techniques used by Ph.D.s in the field of economics. Everything's under control.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                      There's nothing to worry about. The Ph.D.s who came up with these estimates used the same advanced mathematics and modelling techniques used by Ph.D.s in the field of economics. Everything's under control.
                      uh huh.... where have we heard that before...

                      ;)

                      oh yeah!
                      now eye remember....

                      The subprime mess is grave but largely contained, said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Thursday, in a speech before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. While rising delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to weigh heavily on the housing market this year, it will not cripple the U.S. economy, he said. The speech was the Chairman’s most comprehensive on the subprime mortgage issue to date.
                      “Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited,” Bernanke said.
                      uh huh... sounds as sound as krugman's theory on deficits, eh?

                      but the real question - now that we see stealthcat surface???

                      is....

                      WHERE IS MR STEVE ??
                      as in 'starving steve' -

                      stealthcat???
                      hows he doin?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                        Originally posted by lektrode View Post
                        uh huh.... where have we heard that before...

                        ;)
                        I'm glad someone appreciated my attempt at humor.

                        Originally posted by lektrode View Post
                        but the real question - now that we see stealthcat surface???

                        is....

                        WHERE IS MR STEVE ??
                        as in 'starving steve' -

                        stealthcat???
                        hows he doin?
                        Wrong cat, I think. I seem to remember cityqat is Starving Steve's daughter.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                          I wonder what happens when your entire planet is foreclosed on?
                          "I love a dog, he does nothing for political reasons." --Will Rogers

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Five Billion Years of Solitude



                            Lonely Planet

                            By DENNIS OVERBYE

                            FIVE BILLION YEARS OF SOLITUDE

                            The Search for Life Among the Stars

                            By Lee Billings
                            294 pp. Current. $27.95.


                            For all the vaunted progress of science, it’s only rarely that we get to check off the existential-sounding questions that really matter: Did the universe have a beginning? Yes. Will it ever end? Dunno. Are we alone here in the stars? Dunno.

                            But hold on to that last thought. If you believe the newspaper headlines, this is in fact one of those golden moments in history. Astronomers are on the verge of finding a world beyond our own solar system that might support life, Earth 2.0, in the vernacular.

                            What we do when we find it is the trillion-dollar science-fiction question. Do we send an interstellar probe to visit? Can we dream of living there? Do we build giant orbiting telescopes that can inspect them for signs of life? Just the discovery of microbes on a distant planet would be “like putting Copernicus and Darwin into the same bottle and giving it a good shake,” says Matt Mountain, director of NASA’s Space Telescope Science Institute.

                            But the stakes in the planet-hunting game are more than just intellectual, as Lee Billings, a freelance journalist, points out in “Five Billion Years of Solitude,” his graceful new book on the history, meaning and personalities behind the search for life among the stars. “Life on this planet has an expiration date,” he writes, “if for no other reason than that someday the Sun will cease to shine.”

                            So we, or our successors, may need somewhere to go.

                            In the last 20 years, the field of exoplanets — the planets outside our solar system — has become the fastest growing branch of astronomy. NASA’s Kepler spacecraft alone has identified some 3,500 potential planets in a small patch of the Milky Way, and astronomers have concluded that there are roughly as many planets in the galaxy as stars, that is to say, billions. Some of them, presumably, must be like home. Happy hunting.

                            The field is hotly competitive and “Goldilocks” planets that might or might not be habitable — or even exist at all — have danced in and out of the news in recent years. Our putative twin remains missing.

                            Billings sketches this history ably, though he is light on the exploits of Kepler, which has driven the news of late. His main interest is less in chasing Goldilocks planets than in exploring the deeper issues involved, including just how hard it will be to learn anything about these planets once we find them.

                            Earth, for example, is 4.6 billion years old, but animal life has been around for only half a billion years, and oxygen has only been abundant in the atmosphere for two billion years or so and, of course, intelligent life only a sliver of that time. If we found an analogue of Earth circa three billion years ago, would we even recognize it as a promising place?

                            The book’s title, Billings says, is a reference to the expected longevity of life on Earth, but his account is less about exoplanets than about the people who make the search for them their lives’ cause — “creatures that, before their sun went dim, might somehow touch the stars.”

                            We meet luminaries like Frank Drake, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who pioneered the search for radio signals from extraterrestrials more than 50 years ago. Drake is now worried that Earth’s own detectability in this regard has declined with the advent of digital television, a worrisome omen if this is the trend of advanced civilizations.

                            Reading this book is like peering over Billings’s shoulder. He doesn’t just interview astronomers and geophysicists; he and his subjects ponder the history of the universe over margaritas and one-dollar tacos. They tromp through redwood forests, talking, talking, talking.

                            Sometimes they even do some science, or at least try. During a trip to Lick Observatory in Northern California to watch Venus crossing the Sun, the computer controlling one astronomer’s telescope goes berserk and he misses the crucial moment when sunlight shining past the edge of Venus can delineate the planet’s atmosphere, a feat astronomers want to accomplish with exoplanets. Venus won’t be transiting again until 2117.

                            The story may meander at times, but this is the best book I have read about exoplanets, and one of the few whose language approaches the grandeur of a quest that is practically as old as our genes. Billings’s description of the history of the Marcellus shale, the subject of a national debate about fracking, is worth the price of the book by itself.

                            The 4.5 billion years of “deep time” revealed by Earth’s geological record inspires Billings to pull out all the rhetorical stops. About the geologists who have uncovered it, he writes, “The sight of a fossilized form, perhaps the outline of a trilobite, a leaf or a saurian footfall can still send a shiver through their bones, or excavate a trembling hollow in the chest that breath cannot fill.”

                            He goes on: “A planet becomes a vast machine, or an organism, pursuing some impenetrable purpose through its continental collisions and volcanic outpourings. A man becomes a protein-sheathed splash of ocean raised from rock to breathe the sky, an eater of sun whose atoms were forged on an anvil of stars.”

                            There is both good and bad news here. The good news, Billings reports, is that even if we burn up all the fossil fuel, we are unlikely to tip Earth into “a runaway-*greenhouse world” as one scientist described Venus.

                            The bad news is the planet is going to become uninhabitable anyway. Long before the Sun burns out, Earth’s core will cool off and volcanoes, which restore the atmosphere, will cease. The amount of carbon dioxide will fall to levels too low to support photosynthesis in half a billion years or so.

                            Complex life arose here only half a billion years ago, notes James Kasting, a geosciences professor at Penn State, who concludes glumly that intelligence might exist for only one-tenth of Earth’s history, cutting the odds of its being detected elsewhere.

                            But the discovery of Earth 2.0 will mark only the beginning of the real work. Figuring out whether its atmosphere is conducive to life — or perhaps even indicative of life — could take years and billions of dollars, and the immediate prospects are discouraging.

                            Plans for an ambitious NASA project known as the Terrestrial Planet Finder, which has the power to inspect distant planets, have collapsed, partly because astronomers could not agree on which of several challenging technologies to adopt.

                            At the end of the book, Billings introduces us to Sara Seager, a rising young M.I.T. planetary astronomer, who organized a small exoplanet conference in 2011 to discuss where the field is headed and to announce to her colleagues that she was going to be working in the “commercial spaceflight industry.”

                            Billings describes in much detail Seager’s canoe trip to Canada’s Northwest Territories, the so-called Barren Lands, the summer before graduate school. She made the journey with her friend Mike Wevrick. Together, “they portaged over the roots of tall mountains transformed to gentle nubs by four billion years of weathering.” By the end of the trip, “she realized she had not only fallen in love with remote desolation; she had fallen in love with Wevrick, too.” This is only the beginning of a heartbreaking story I won’t spoil by telling here.

                            What, you might wonder, does this journey have to do with exoplanets?

                            It has nothing to do with exoplanets. But it has everything to do with the passion and determination and resourcefulness of scientists like Sara Seager, those creatures who would touch the stars.

                            Dennis Overbye, a science correspondent for The Times, is the author of “Einstein in Love.”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2 Billion Strong (No, not the Chinese)

                              Originally posted by photon555 View Post
                              FOR SALE: Charming 7 continent, single moon fixer-upper in Sirius Sector. Fantastic bargain for the right buyer. This relatively young planet has great orbit appeal with a nearly circular route around its G2 primary at an average distance of 1.1 Zorklahts. Biosphere is only moderately polluted by the dominant lifeform, which only recently achieved primitive space capability. The large moon produces strong tidal actions upon the diverse oceans covering two thirds planetary surface. Deposit is low at only 200,000 metric tons (local measure) Au (4 9's). After three surveys the Galactic Protective Service has declared the planet free of intelligent life and suitable for occupation at the buyer's earliest convenience. The radical Archon Anarchist Association has contended that there are several intelligent air breathing swimmer species in the oceans, but the AAA have no official standing with the GPS, and in any case the alleged sentients are quite non-violent and even playful with most creatures. They are also non-technic.

                              Mineral rights for the local asteroid belt are available for a negotiated premium.

                              The dominant pseudo sentient species is aggressive, paranoid, and borderline insane, but possessed of only grade 1 nuclear weapons, and an estimated grade DD+ tech ability. The Mielmacht Mercenary Mobile Mechs conducted the last two surveys as the GPS contractor and thus will offer a 10% discount for their five nine's clearcut pest termination service against the local "humans" as they refer to themselves. Contact the MMMM office on Tantris IV for more information.

                              This soon to be delightful world could be your species' world away from home, colony, or any other GPS approved purpose. War gaming would require additional fees and permits, but unrestricted hunting of the "humans" is included in the list price. While they may be freely hunted, the "human" species is under class XXXX quarantine and may not be removed from their home planet for any reason. (Remember the Orkin Catastrophe) Severe fines, penalties, and sanctions up to and including speciecide will be levied against any offenders.

                              This out of the way but charming orb will be sold at the best price before the next scheduled Super Nova. Sellers are motivated. Remit all inquiries to All Star Realtors who have the exclusive contract with the current owners, the Rothchild et al clan of the Reptiloid Resurgence Racial Recovery Alliance.

                              Peace to all peaceful sentients. Long live the Galactic Overlord, Uber Empereor Xeithor the 2.56487 E11, Diergor of Orion, Lord of the Magellanic Cloud, etc. etc. etc.
                              You forgot to mention they can get it with zero down and an ultra-low interest rate on the mortgage...

                              Comment

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