Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

RE: the China Syndrome

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • RE: the China Syndrome

    There is a heavy demand from abroad for US real estate. China as you know is now solidly the second largest economy in the world and with it is wielding heavy economic power. Wealthy families are growing and with it, the ability to purchase investments and assets all around the world. In California target locations like Los Angeles and San Francisco bring in dramatic levels of dollars from abroad. The California housing market has been on a massive run-up in the last couple of years. As we’ve discussed, a large part of this has been driven by domestic investors but how much of this is being driven from those abroad? In particular how much money is flowing in from China into US real estate? It is interesting to note that Chinese property investors are targeting select coastal regions whereas some domestic hedge funds have gone after properties in Arizona and Nevada. It is hard to ignore the money flowing in from abroad.

    Real estate investing from China

    The property sector has seen a large amount of money come in from China:





    It is clear where the money is flowing. You also need to realize that this money is targeted to certain regions so the impact is magnified where the money is flowing. California of course is a prime location:


    “(Forbes) For instance, Chinese commercial real estate purchases in the U.S. totaled over $3 billion in 2012, much of it in California. The state is expected to see record investments by the Chinese in 2013, the Asia Society said. Two sizable deals took place this year already.

    China Vanke and Tishman Speyer signed a deal for a $620 million luxury condo project in San Francisco this winter. In April, another deal for a cool $1.5 billion was inked in Oakland between Zarsion and Signature Development Group.”


    These are massive deals in Northern California. Even here in Southern California there are real estate agents that specifically cater to this market niche. The California housing market has been driven largely by investors in the last couple of years. Investors fall into a few categories:


    -1. Big banks/funds: buying for rental or hold-and-flip
    -2. Flippers
    -3. Foreign buyers

    When over 30 percent of the market in California is being driven by investor money you have to wonder how long this trend can go on. California isn’t the only market being targeted here:


    “(NPR) The GM building is considered one of the most valuable office towers in the U.S. In May, a large piece of it was purchased by a Chinese real estate developer.

    That same developer, Xin Zhang, the chief executive officer of Soho China, already owns a significant stake in the Park Avenue Plaza, and other Chinese firms and investors are buying up notable properties across New York.

    The buying, however, isn’t limited to just New York or Chinese investors. Investors from across Asia are buying up premier commercial real estate, says Christopher Ludeman, who heads up Global Capital Markets at CBRE Group, which handled the GM building sale.”


    This is very similar to when Japan had its boom and ended up purchasing trophy properties in California and Hawaii however China is a much larger economy and as you know, has a dramatically bigger population. China now has over 1 million US dollar millionaire households (only behind Japan and the US).

    Why the flow of funds from China into US real estate?

    What is interesting is that in relative terms, US real estate even in Los Angeles and New York is “cheap” compared to properties in some areas in Asia:




    It is a fascinating trend and US dollars are rushing back into our economy. This is part of the global landscape. Goods and services move back and forth seamlessly and so does cash. Wealthy investors from China are definitely interested in US real estate and are diving into markets with large amounts of cash. This combined with big Wall Street buyers has somewhat papered over the largely disappearing middle class in many of these areas. In large part this is how real estate values have continually moved up while household incomes have gone stagnant.

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/c...ate-investors/

  • #2
    Re: the China Syndrome

    Could this be the rich elite in China getting their money out before a problem? I think Michael Pettis suggested looking for this quite some time ago.
    I haven't heard it, but it sounds like Jim Walker is on FSN talking about a future China bust. I know! He's one of those Austrian School guys, but, I think he is sharp. I suppose that is proof of his ideological error! LOL

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: the China Syndrome

      The Chinese economy has slowed down considerably, at least for advanced networking gear. Something is wrong over there.
      ------

      These are the stories that come out right before a crash, no? The Chinese have been buying up property for many years here in my area. They loved the deals they got after the crash.

      The Chinese respect profit more than the Japanese do. You get more "face" for getting a good deal on a trophy property, rather than just being rich enough to throw money away. This small cultural difference may be significant, or not.


      ------
      Regardless, it sure sounds like FIRE propaganda to me. Look, look, the rich Chinese are buying! It is different this time.

      ------

      But, what do I know... If the Chinese are spending 30 billion on real estate in the U.S., that is about 3% of the market. I do not know the research, but 3% of the market could have quite an outsized price impact. Could that 3% of the past 5 years be the entire reason our real estate markets have "recovered"?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: the China Syndrome

        I don't think many Chinese are buying here in NE Tennessee, but what do I know...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: the China Syndrome

          I was in California when Japanese buys of Cali RE dominated the news. Recently in Florida it was Brazil, before the Empire struck back (puppy training?) against the ever-emerging economies. Apparently if you live outside of the Reserve Currency state, buying property in the US is portfolio diversification.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: the China Syndrome

            Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
            I don't think many Chinese are buying here in NE Tennessee, but what do I know...
            About 20 years ago there were next to no Chinese people in Mountain City, Tennessee.

            When I bought some aubergine at the chain grocery there, I had to explain to the cashier looking bewildered that they were "eggplant." She burst out laughing. "Eggplant?!"

            Now there are ten people online offering Chinese lessons in Mountain City.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: the China Syndrome

              Originally posted by Thailandnotes View Post
              About 20 years ago there were next to no Chinese people in Mountain City, Tennessee.

              When I bought some aubergine at the chain grocery there, I had to explain to the cashier looking bewildered that they were "eggplant." She burst out laughing. "Eggplant?!"

              Now there are ten people online offering Chinese lessons in Mountain City.
              What the heck were you doing in Mountain City?! That's only an hour away from here.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: the China Syndrome

                Originally posted by don View Post
                I was in California when Japanese buys of Cali RE dominated the news. Recently in Florida it was Brazil, before the Empire struck back (puppy training?) against the ever-emerging economies. Apparently if you live outside of the Reserve Currency state, buying property in the US is portfolio diversification.
                It's also a safety valve. That's why the wealthy Arabs, Russians, Kazakhs, etc. like to own property in London...they know they can always go there and it will likely be a safe haven if things go completely for shzt at home (unless Putin sends a hand delivered gift of polonium).

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: the China Syndrome

                  this money flow is also a bit of a "poom" - u.s. dollars sent abroad in exchange for imports, now coming home seeking to be exchanged for real assets. and, btw, inflating those assets. if this flow scales up, we've got poom.

                  someone above mentioned the chinese buying after the 2008 crash- that was a foreshadowing of ka-poom.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: the China Syndrome

                    Originally posted by aaron View Post
                    The Chinese economy has slowed down considerably, at least for advanced networking gear. Something is wrong over there.

                    All the money in China has gone into sustaining the real estate ponzi. Where's the cash for "advanced networking gear"?

                    Like a cancer, the real estate boom has started cannibalizing the real economy.

                    You can print money, but can you force people to consume rather than buy into ponzi?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: the China Syndrome

                      http://www.cnbc.com/id/101225781

                      China's rich fleeing the country—with their fortunes

                      Text Size
                      Published: Monday, 25 Nov 2013 | 5:20 PM ET

                      By: Robert Frank | CNBC Reporter and Editor




                      Play Video


                      China wealth flight
                      Monday, 25 Nov 2013 | 3:44 PM ET

                      CNBC's Robert Frank reports on the mass exodus of wealthy Chinese citizens and where their money is flowing. Frank says the Chinese are making their money in China, but investing it overseas.

                      It's one of the largest and most rapid wealth migrations of our time: hundreds of billions of dollars, and waves of millionaires flowing out of China to overseas destinations.
                      According to WealthInsight, the Chinese wealthy now have about $658 billion stashed in offshore assets. Boston Consulting Group puts the number lower, at around $450 billion, but says offshore investments are expected to double in the next three years.
                      A study from Bain Consulting found that half of China's ultrawealthy—those with $16 million or more in wealth—now have investments overseas.
                      And it's not just the money that's exiting the country. The wealthy are increasingly following their money overseas.
                      A study by Hurun and Bank of China found that more than half of China's millionaires are considering emigrating or have already taken steps to move overseas.
                      (Read more: China has a word for its crass new rich)

                      Many experts say that the wealthy are moving to protect their wealth, their health and their families. With China increasingly cracking down on ill-gotten gains and corruption, many of the politically connected wealthy are looking for safer havens abroad.


                      Ytwong | E+ | Getty Images

                      They are also looking for better environments for their children—with better schools and cleaner air.
                      "Whether it is the perceived political instability or perhaps lack of educational opportunities, or pollution in the urban environments there, when you put those altogether ... and you mix that with the wealth that's present in China now, it really makes sense that there are folks there looking to explore these opportunities," said Peter Joseph of the Association to Invest in the USA, which represents investor-visa programs in the U.S.
                      (Read more: Countries woo rich Chinese with citizenship abroad)

                      Some say the capital flight and millionaire migration are normal consequences of rising wealth. Oliver Williams, of WealthInsight, said that the Chinese wealthy have about 13 percent of their wealth overseas—below the global average of 20 percent to 30 percent.
                      Still, much of China's offshore wealth is moved illegally or in the shadow economy. China maintains a closed capital account and Chinese citizens are generally not permitted to move more than $50,000 out of the country. So reliable data on exactly how much money is moving out remains unclear.
                      But the global buying spree by wealthy Chinese suggests the numbers may be far higher than reported. Wealthy Chinese buyers purchased more than $8 billion worth of residential real estate in the U.S. in the 12 months ended in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. China's share of foreign-purchased residential real estate has jumped 50 percent since 2011.
                      One of China's richest women, Zhang Xin of developer SOHO China, recently bought a townhouse in Manhattan for $26 million, according to reports.
                      (Read more: China has the youngest billionaires)

                      China's wealthy also are pouring money into collectibles and art. Billionaire Wang Jianlin and his company Dalian Wanda last month bought a Picasso at a Christie's auction for $28 million. Bidding from Chinese buyers was strong throughout the auctions, according to dealers and gallerists.
                      It's also going to wine and diamonds. Diamond dealers say more than half of today's collectible diamonds are going to Chinese buyers. And on Saturday, the world's most expensive case of wine—1978 Romanée-Conti—sold in Hong Kong for $476,000.


                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: the China Syndrome

                        Chinese citizens are generally not permitted to move more than $50,000 out of the country.
                        Meanwhile, a US green card is yours for the taking if you invest $500,000 in an American venture.

                        Serendipity?

                        (ever consider buying a bridge? Have I got a steal for you . . . )

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X