Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

[unlucky]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...ash-drain.html
Mike

Well I hate to point out the elephant in the room here but contrary to the gist of the Daily Mail pre-leaks, the IPCC report actually concludes that the empirical evidence shows the climate is warming and that it's probably caused by greenhouse gas emissions. That is the considered view of the scientists who have examined the data, taking account of the fact that computer simulations have performed poorly in predicting the actual rate of warming.

Now far be it from me to pronounce judgement on the veracity or otherwise of all the statistics and counter-statistics, refutations and counte-refutations, or to question the wisdom of the Daily Mail versus the integrity of said IPCC scientists.
Just sayin', is all!

[c1ue]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Well I hate to point out the elephant in the room here but contrary to the gist of the Daily Mail pre-leaks, the IPCC report actually concludes that the empirical evidence shows the climate is warming and that it's probably caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The problem with the IPCC report is that all of the 'settled science' is accounted for in the CMIP climate models. Those same models which are unable to replicate real world temperature behavior.

The equal problem is that the IPCC comments in the latest version are 100% consistent with their comments in the past 5 versions extending back 23 years - even though the behavior of temperature has changed in the past 17.

The biggest problem is that the IPCC and the 'consensus' has spent literally tens of billions of dollars - but their conclusion after 23 years and these tens of billions of dollars is an even worse estimate of what is going to happen than when they started.

IPCC in 1990: 2 to 4.5 degrees C
IPCC in 2013: 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C

This doesn't look like progress to me, nor a strong understanding much less a capability to predict behavior for the end of this century.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Mai#Climate

Actually, I'm looking for one where you can select a weather station and a month and get the average high/low for September going back 50 years.

Something like this except this one is limited to the states.

http://weather-warehouse.com/Weather...VA_August.html

[BadJuju]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Which portions of my statement are unscientific bullshit?

The sad fact is - every statement is fully supported by scientific research.

Not really interested in arguing it, sir. More of a snappy, pithy remark maker these days as opposed to a substantiated, vigorous debater.

[c1ue]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Not really interested in arguing it, sir. More of a snappy, pithy remark maker these days as opposed to a substantiated, vigorous debater

Hopefully that is a symptom of knowledge as opposed to one of ignorance and/or conformity.

[reggie]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

If the science is so settled why do the "scientific" models produce such bad results? .

It's beyond ridiculous to make claims that we can accurately determine the outcome of a complex adaptive system (CAS) such as the global environment. By it's very nature, the system is chaotic and emergence trajectory unpredictable... that is, unless we install some pretty vigorous control feedback systems that direct emergence. The entire discussion is laughable, and unfortunately impacts that vast majority who don't have the scientific understanding necessary to dismiss it.

[c1ue]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Actually, I'm looking for one where you can select a weather station and a month and get the average high/low for September going back 50 years.

Your best bet is to look up all the Thailand stations in GHCN, then figure out which one is closest to where you want to examine records.

GHCN would normally be accessible via the NOAA site - but due to shutdown...

I'd also strongly recommend trying to see what the station(s) you look at actually look like - urbanization has a very large impact.

The latest Climate Change article I posted notes that one of the US temperature survey stations saw an increase in average temps of over 3x that of global temperature increases due to population increasing to 10,000 (from under 500) in less than a decade.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Exactly. Just like almost everything the Democratic Party has advocated for the past forty years.
Before that they actually had some principles. The Republicans did too, "once upon a time".





We'll have to flush the CONgress like an industrial toilet before that can happen.
Both parties are whored out to the F.I.R.E. economy bag men (lobbyists).

We need virtue...or more likely given the historical pattern, a credible enemy. Yes I am ashamed of my species.

[vt]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=4zJn4gxCx3c

[Forrest]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

It's beyond ridiculous to make claims that we can accurately determine the outcome of a complex adaptive system (CAS) such as the global environment. By it's very nature, the system is chaotic and emergence trajectory unpredictable... that is, unless we install some pretty vigorous control feedback systems that direct emergence. The entire discussion is laughable, and unfortunately impacts that vast majority who don't have the scientific understanding necessary to dismiss it.

Those of us that think climate change is a natural part of the Earth's natural systems as she is reacting to the remainder of the universe agree with you that the system is beyond human control.

We still want to discuss the views of those that believe otherwise, and the data they are using, hiding and manipulating because it's fun and instructive.

I agree that our species can come up with incredible ideas that are idiotic...those that over-estimate our ability to affect nature's incredibly complex and powerful forces are simply a little to focused on what man is really able to do. Certainly we can mess up the earth where we live on it, mostly with chemical concoctions, but also with less than complete knowledge of gravity, light, and energy such as HAARP works with. However, the ability of this planet to simply cover a chemical spill in a little lava and burn it away, or by plate tectonics bury it is apparently out of the understanding of most high school graduates because they evidently don't teach such things in school any more.

Granted, these things take time, but the earth is more than able to renew itself...it was designed that way.

Please don't underestimate how much we can learn here on iTulip from even the most idiotic ramblings...ideas spring, and send me to google a lot from the strangest writings.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

It's beyond ridiculous to make claims that we can accurately determine the outcome of a complex adaptive system (CAS) such as the global environment. By it's very nature, the system is chaotic and emergence trajectory unpredictable... that is, unless we install some pretty vigorous control feedback systems that direct emergence. The entire discussion is laughable, and unfortunately impacts that vast majority who don't have the scientific understanding necessary to dismiss it.

Those of us that think climate change...agree with you that the system is beyond human control.

Reggie is correct, it's a complex system. This is why climate change can't be modeled.

Forrest agrees with this and implies that therefore humans cannot have any effect on the system.

The burden of proof lies with Forrest. That climate change can't be modeled doesn't prove that humans cannot have an effect on the system. Ideally, we should be striving to fuck with the system as little as possible, because we don't know what can happen as a result of ******* with the complex system. This is not an argument in favor of cap and trade, hopefully it won't be taken as such.

[vt]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

"Forced underground by the next ice age, a struggling outpost of survivors must fight to preserve humanity against a threat even more savage than nature."

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1160996/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

[Forrest]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Reggie is correct, it's a complex system. This is why climate change can't be modeled.

Forrest agrees with this and implies that therefore humans cannot have any effect on the system.

The burden of proof lies with Forrest. That climate change can't be modeled doesn't prove that humans cannot have an effect on the system. Ideally, we should be striving to fuck with the system as little as possible, because we don't know what can happen as a result of ******* with the complex system. This is not an argument in favor of cap and trade, hopefully it won't be taken as such.

Those of us that think climate change is a natural part of the Earth's natural systems as she is reacting to the remainder of the universe agree with you that the system is beyond human control.

We still want to discuss the views of those that believe otherwise, and the data they are using, hiding and manipulating because it's fun and instructive.

I agree that our species can come up with incredible ideas that are idiotic...those that over-estimate our ability to affect nature's incredibly complex and powerful forces are simply a little to focused on what man is really able to do. Certainly we can mess up the earth where we live on it, mostly with chemical concoctions, but also with less than complete knowledge of gravity, light, and energy such as HAARP works with. However, the ability of this planet to simply cover a chemical spill in a little lava and burn it away, or by plate tectonics bury it is apparently out of the understanding of most high school graduates because they evidently don't teach such things in school any more.

Please don't underestimate how much we can learn here on iTulip from even the most idiotic ramblings...ideas spring, and send me to google a lot from the strangest writings.

Granted, these things take time, but the earth is more than able to renew itself...it was designed that way.

Slim...I never said we could not mess with the earth. I merely stated that over a long period of time the Earth could correct for our mistakes.

I myself try not to mess with the planet, because the actual ways that the earth operates is what keeps us healthiest and happiest, which is why I'm an organic gardener, and getting ready to put in solar on my house.

My views are pretty clear on the solar water heater thread...I go into great detail about what I am doing, and why .

Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

[LorenS]

Re: Global warming.......guess what.......its TOTAL Bollocks!

Reggie is correct, it's a complex system. This is why climate change can't be modeled.

Forrest agrees with this and implies that therefore humans cannot have any effect on the system.

The burden of proof lies with Forrest. That climate change can't be modeled doesn't prove that humans cannot have an effect on the system. Ideally, we should be striving to fuck with the system as little as possible, because we don't know what can happen as a result of ******* with the complex system. This is not an argument in favor of cap and trade, hopefully it won't be taken as such.

I have no doubt humans are impacting the earth, and most likely the climate. My big gripe is two fold. Number one, if the model is not accurately modeling the behavior, then you can't use the model to help decide what changes to make to improve the system. This one is BASIC science. You first need an accurate model, then you can do what if analysis to make sure that your proposed changes will have the desired impact. To do otherwise is merely superstition.

Second, many of the proposed "solutions" to climate change are patently bogus. When someone is trying to convince you to eat raw petroleum to cure your ailments it is not at all unreasonable to question their diagnosis as well.

I believe most climate models are useless, that most predictions are therefore also useless and that most solutions proposed so far have no basis in science or valid economics.

Climate change may be real. We may be able to influence it. The burden of proof is not on me, it is on those who want to impose upon me the "costs" of their faulty predictions and solutions.

In order to force your solution upon me you need to prove that there is a problem, that you understand the problem and that your solution to the problem has a high chance of success. Until you meet those criteria you are either incompetent or dishonest.

This kind of crap goes along with most social problems. In many cases it is pretty obvious that there is a problem, but most of the time the solutions offered up by the politicians or the ignorant rabble are not valid solutions, many of them quite obviously flawed from previous attempts to impose them on other similar populations.

No matter how real the problem, a false solution is not an appropriate response. This concept just seems to never sink in. "Don't just stand there do something--- Anything!!!!!" We're supposed to be beyond blatant superstition and mindless action.

[Polish_Silver]

Earth not a person, but could be stable

Those of us that think climate change is a natural part of the Earth's natural systems as she is reacting to the remainder of the universe agree with you that the system is beyond human control.

. .

In a technical discussion, we should not personify the earth. I also believe the global climate may be stable to small perturbations, but I cannot figure out what the stabilization dynamic is. Is there negative feedback which stabilizes the earths temperature to a variety of perturbations?

A major dispute between climate alarmists and AGW deniers is the degree of positive/negative feedback in the climate system. If you increase thermal power to the earth by 0.1%, how much must the earth's temperature rise to be in thermal equilibrium ? People are trying to get answers to this, by looking at local water vapor variations and the resulting radiant temperature changes.