Is this it? (Peek Oil)

[Mega]

http://www.silverdoctors.com/trouble...-u-s-oil-boom/
I know we some oil guys on here, so i thought i ask.....
Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

Here's the average daily USA crude oil production for the last 6 years; data from the US Energy Information Administration. All figures in thousands of barrels per day.

5,077

5,000

5,353

5,479

5,652

6,486

2012 production over 2011 increased by a monstrous 834,000 barrels per day.

The EIA is forecasting 2013 and 2014 USA domestic production to average 7.40 million bpd and 8.24 million bpd, respectively. This represents y-o-y increases of 914,000 bpd in 2013 and 840,000 bpd in 2014...in other words a near term peak in rate of additions this year. Throw in additions from gas liquids derivatives, biodiesel and ethanol (each of these small compared to crude oil, but the sum of all three amounts to forecast increases of ~250,000 bpd in each of the next couple of years) and the rate of liquids production in the USA is rising in a rather dramatic fashion. Nevertheless the USA is starting to get hit with the law of big numbers...every year a greater and greater share of the new additions to production are devoted to offsetting the ever increasing decline volume from the previous year rising average production number. One can only run so hard on the treadmill...

By way of comparison Saudi Arabia's last two "megaprojects", which each cost tens of Billions of US$ and took years to execute, were forecast to add peak production of 1.2 million bpd (Khurais) and 900,000 bpd (Manifa heavy oil).

To underscore that dramatic change taking place, USA liquid hydrocarbon imports peaked at about 12.5 million bpd in 2005. Imports last year had dropped to 7.4 million bpd, and the EIA is forecasting imports to continue to drop to about 5.6 million bpd by next year.

How much longer can it go on? For now it depends more on how long the money keeps flowing in more than any other factor.

Edit added: If anyone here is under the impression that there's a real drilling frenzy underway in the USA, the following chart will prove entertaining. The USA domestic rotary rig count is a looooong way from getting back to the previous peak in the years immediately following the Iranian revolution. Less than 2000 rigs operating today versus 4500 in 1982-83. Put that in your hat and frac it (all the time remembering EJ's chart showing the average production per well is declining, and is today a LOT lower than it was in 1982).



International rotary rig counts are just about back to its previous peak:

[Mega]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

Am not very bright, in a nut shell?
Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

Am not very bright, in a nut shell?
Mike

Depends on how long the money keeps flowing in to drill more wells Mike...

[shiny!]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

"Am not very bright, in a nut shell?"

I might make this my signature line.

[Mega]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

Thanks
Mike

[santafe2]

Re: Is this it? (Peek Oil)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/trouble...-u-s-oil-boom/
I know we some oil guys on here, so i thought i ask.....
Mike

The timing of peak oil production is less relevant than the disruption it causes. I think the evidence is clear. We're in the jaws of the peak and it will be clear to everyone over the next decade or so.